DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 2 Predicted Scores
So we know from previous experience that the couples are either going to be jumping around with the Jive or kicking up their heels with the Quickstep. How do we know what they are going to be dancing? Well, if they danced the Foxtrot last week, they will be working on the Jive in Week 2… consequently if a couple danced the ChaCha last week they will be dancing the Quickstep this week.
So let’s see how the predicted numbers add up!
GAVIN DEGRAW
Dance: Jive
Average Scores:
- Age: 21.423
- Occupation: 20.167
- Professional Partner: 21.333
Predicted Score / Rank: 21 / 7th
Comments: Gavin is towards the bottom of the leaderboard after last week’s Foxtrot, which means he will have a lot of ground to cover if he wants to stay in the competition (granted I’m not even counting fanbase votes). When it comes to the Jive, he seems to have a lot going for him between his age group and his partner, both ranking in the top half. However, for some reason singers have crazy trouble with the dance in the first third of the season… and being singers that are suppose to know how to keep time… why? Knowing all this, I’d say his predicted score should be fairly close to the real thing… strongly in the middle of the pack.
DONALD DRIVER
Dance: Quickstep
Average Scores:
- Age: 21.792
- Occupation: 22.000
- Professional Partner: N/A (one time pros average: 22.000)
Predicted Score / Rank: 22 / 3rd
Comments: Donald seems to have a lot going for him in regards to how he should do on the Quickstep. Every NFL player that has done the Quickstep in the first third of the season have scored at least a 20. Add to that his age group (30s) and his score inches up a bit… unfortunately Peta has yet to do a Quickstep on the show… so looking at other female pros that have been on the show once it would seem that the Quickstep isn’t a bane either… so I would say that the predicted score is about par for the course based on the limited data available.
ROSHON FAGEN
Dance: Quickstep
Average Scores:
- Age: 23.154
- Occupation: 22.667
- Professional Partner: 21.333
Predicted Score / Rank: 22 / 2nd
Comments: After a very entertaining ChaCha, how is Roshon going to fare with the Quickstep? Similar to Donald, Roshon seems to have a lot going for him in regards to scores and overall rank, in this case all other Disney related celebs have scored either a 22 or 23 in their Quickstep in the first third of the season. As for having the same score as Donald? It’s a possibility, but I do think that Roshon would be placed higher on the leaderboard than Donald… but that’s just me.
MELISSA GILBERT
Dance: Quickstep
Average Scores:
- Age: 19.933
- Occupation: 21.000
- Professional Partner: 20.667
Predicted Score / Rank: 20 / 9th
Comments: Melissa is going to have her work cut out for her this week as she attempts to conquer the Quickstep. Maks’ previous partners have gotten either a 20 or 21 in the first third of the season which seems to place him in the lower third of pro scores. Her age doesn’t help either… so unless she manages to wow the crowd I’m expecting something lower than the 20, but she’ll definitely rank in the lower half of the cast.
KATHERINE JENKINS
Dance: Jive
Average Scores:
- Age: 21.423
- Occupation: 20.167
- Professional Partner: 21.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 21 / 8th
Comments: Other than for the speculation of why singers seem to have trouble with the Jive (see Gavin), most of her other scores seem to be fairly middle of the road. With a strong showing last week with the Foxtrot, I think she should be ok this week with the Jive… just as long as she loses the glaze-eyed look and comes off a bit more animated. So the middle of the road score and rank seems rather appropriate for her this time around.
GLADYS KNIGHT
Dance: Quickstep
Average Scores:
- Age: 19.333
- Occupation: 22.714
- Professional Partner: 21.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 21 / 6th
Comments: The sentimental favorite brought the house down last week with her fun ChaCha, can she do it with the Quickstep? Possibly if the numbers are any indication. Unfortunately others in her age group seems to struggle with the dance, but singers seem to get the counts for a the Quickstep (over the Jive apparently) and her partner seems to do rather well the last time he did the dance. Middle of the road? Not if this Empress of Soul has anything to say about it… but only time will tell.
WILLIAM LEVY
Dance: Quickstep
Average Scores:
- Age: 21.792
- Occupation: 23.625
- Professional Partner: 22.143
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 1st
Comments: This celeb has no excuse to NOT do well with this dance if the numbers have any say. Ranking in the top two in every category and add to it his looks and personality, if he doesn’t do well this week I will seriously be disappointed. Seriously.
MARIA MENOUNOS
Dance: Quickstep
Average Scores:
- Age: 21.792
- Occupation: 21.000
- Professional Partner: 22.800
Predicted Score / Rank: 22 / 4th
Comments: Another celeb with a lot going for her. Though her ChaCha was a bit lackluster and not all that memorable. I’m hoping that they will come out all guns blazing this week (this IS Derek afterall) to compensate for the low score last week. She has the capability to place high this week, barring any major mishap… maybe.
MARTINA NAVRATILOVA
Dance: Jive
Average Scores:
- Age: 19.500
- Occupation: 20.667
- Professional Partner: 20.200
Predicted Score / Rank: 20 / 10th
Comments: Well, Tony and Martina are hoping to come back this week with a strong Jive, but the numbers are telling me otherwise. Tony’s been all over the spectrum with this dance’s scores (from 15 with Kate Gosselin to 25 with Sara Evans). Martina’s age group also seems to have quite a bit of trouble with this dance as well. As thus the 20 seems too kind, I’m expecting something lower.
SHERRI SHEPHERD
Dance: Jive
Average Scores:
- Age: 19.333
- Occupation: 20.000
- Professional Partner: N/A (one time pros average: 21.000)
Predicted Score / Rank: 20 / 11th
Comments: Oh man, I like Sherri and her personality and it would mesh well with the dance… on the surface. But dammit she doesn’t have the numbers to back that up… and if that’s the case she may lose the other boob on the dance floor tonight. Also her pro partner has not done a Jive yet… with that wildcard in play there is no telling where she would actually land on the leaderboard. I’m just not expecting it to be very high.
JACK WAGNER
Dance: Jive
Average Scores:
- Age: 19.500
- Occupation: 21.400
- Professional Partner: 20.250
Predicted Score / Rank: 20 / 12th
Comments: This is one placement/score that I don’t agree with, but that could by fangirl side talking. Realistically his age group don’t mesh well with the Jive, and his pro partner (as much as I love her as a dancer) seems to have trouble with her celebs on this dance (unless his name is Even Lysacek). I really want him to score higher, but I’m not entirely convinced that he would… I’m sure he won’t come dead last though.
JALEEL WHITE
Dance: Jive
Average Scores:
- Age: 21.423
- Occupation: 21.400
- Professional Partner: 21.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 21 / 5th
Comments: Last week’s golden boy gets the Jive this week… we got to see a little snippet of his swing dance moves when they announced the cast a few weeks ago so we know he’s got some moves (on a social level) but will they translate well to the Jive? It would seem like it’s possible since the numbers indicate a slightly higher than middle of the road score… even though I think he is probably going to have a slightly higher score and as thus rank.
So there you have it… the calculated predictions / scores of the week. Let’s see how I fare when showtime comes in a few hours. =)
Look at it this...
Scores are looking good! I thought it was a little early for 9′s last week! I hope Maria’s rib don’t affect her tonight! Her quickstep is looking good! But I really hope that Carrie Ann doesn’t think that jump is a “lift” But I think this will be Maria’s dance! Fits her personality!
Wow, I was shocked on seeing Jack come in last. I hope that won’t happen.
Excellent once again Miss Marianya!! I so love these posts!!!
Thanks Marianya! Just one things though about Tony and Martina. The 17 with Wendy and 23 with Audrina were for Quicksteps, and this is Jive correct?
@Zach – thanks for catching that… I just updated it with the correct information.
This is why I don’t write / update posts when half-inebriated.
One more thing, Tony also got 30 with Stacy. Don’t know if you included that.
Anyhow, great job.
“…if that’s the case she may lose the other boob on the dance floor”
Dunno how everyone’s gonna place tonight, but that THAT is 1st place funny!
@Maddy – the scores that I mentioned are only from the first “third” of the season… So when Tony got the 30 with Stacy… it was later on in the season and not within the first two weeks… otherwise the averages would have be skewed moreso than necessary. (I think)
I like these analyses, Marianya, because they are based in past performance and they apply different criteria than I’d think of myself. Without them I’d have no clue for anticipating the scoring before seeing the dances.
After watching just one dance I really don’t want anyone to go this week – would prefer that all couples dance 4 weeks and then have a quadruple elimination, or something along those lines.
Of course Carrie Ann gave William a 9 when he truly deserved a 7! Maria and Derek should have gotten the 9! I swear can we please get new judges in this place!!! PLEASE! I hope William goes first! I don’t care but he’s going through because of Carrie Ann drooling over him and all the girls voting for him! Show respect to other contestants who deserved higher marks (LIKE MARIA) Maria quickstep was fantastic. And Roshon omg should have not gotten 9′s did you see his feet?!?! I swear Carrie Ann does not like the pretty girls on the show. Over there drooling over the disney kid and the “so called” Latin Hotty. Big mistake on Maria’s part she deserved a 9 from her. I can see about Len giving an 8 because it’s Len. But OMG I can keep on but my fingers are hurting. UGH!
The people from the ABC family (Sherri, Roshon) were terribly overscored. People who were just as good (Jack, Melissa) were hosed. Roshon was better than those two, but not by that much. William? Disgustingly over scored. His butt was sticking out, he was uncertain in spots…ridiculous.
I was surprised by Jaleel because he danced so heavy and a bit off time. Also surprised by Donald because he was SO charming and light on his feet. Gavin? Not great, but oddly charming.
Loved Donald, William, Maria, & Sherri, she made me sore laughing again & she makes me love Val even more, when she was holding on to him & her legs were wrapped around him, omg that was some funny shit! lol
BUT Katherine Jenkins? omg I have my first girl crush lol seriously that woman is beautiful & her accent & her pairing with Mark is adorable, he is a good few years younger than her so it works well, watching her get all shy & blush when he told her to shake her naughty bits, hilarious & that Jive, wow no words, she again looked like a pro out there, too good!
Katherine and Mark’s jive was hot haha and I’ve never seen a sexy jive before! But Maria was fantastic! Loved her and Dereks story and the dancing HUGE improvement from last week! Ah still wish it was a 26 or 27! But WAY overscored William tonight forreal Carrie Ann and Bruno a 9 on that dance?!?! Seriously! I would have giving him what Len gave him! Since he is the only ballroom dancer on the panel! ABC should look into replacing definety Carrie Ann and possibly Bruno! And take Brooke with them!
Hmmm…Im confused by the scores. Mark is so damn distracting with his facial expression and over the top moves I don’t know how the judges even judged Katherine. They’re being overly harsh with Melissa IMO. And of course there’s the “William factor” show up and get an automatic 1 or 2 pts added to CAI and Brunos score. If Sherri and Jack combined together they’d be a almost perfect dancer. With her energy and his moves. Im surprised Sherri wasnt hosed more by not actually doing an Jive but I guess that’s Vals fault. Martina, Im debating in my head weather its Tonys fault by doing basic and boring choreo or not. Everyone else blended in IMO even my fav Roshon.
LOL Trenta I know, Mark is over the top & his face can be crazy at times with his expressions, but that Jive he created was maybe the best ever imo on DWTS.
Sexy fun & showcased Katherine perfectly!
She could clearly win this thing, I see her being Final 3 for sure, but people need to vote for her!
Unpopular opinion but I really liked William’s Quickstep, I thought he was light & held the feel of the dance all the way through, he was also holding a good frame & yeah his butt is out but he has a good size butt, can’t help that.
Seriously, folks, does Katherine secretly have a lot of dancing in her background? I don’t think she does, but she’s been exceptional in both her dances and deserves her leader status. Any of the past “ringers” e.g. Nicole, Maya, Jennifer etc. would have been hard-pressed to come up with those two dances in the first two weeks.
If she had been paired with Derek it would have been Mirrorball all the way!
I am west coast so just saw Sherri’s jive – looks to me like she missed a trick in the middle, and the film seemed to jump a bit there as if it had been edited. BAD footwork. I wouldn’t have a problem with Sheri if her scores were more credible. Like PH says, ABC protecting their own, and more of a stretch for Sherri than Roshon.
I am really feeling for Tony right now. He looked absolutely devastated. Hopefully, the viewers will save them. I swear that the format of judging is going to be the death of this show.
To say there was over compensation in abundance tonight is an understatement. I think we’ll have to see pigs fly over frozen Haydees though to see any improvements on that front.
So, if my calculations are correct, the standings after the two dances are:
Katherine + Mark 52
William + Cheryl 49
Roshon + Chelsie 49
Jaleel + Kym 48
Sherri + Val 46
Maria + Derek 46
Donald + Peta 45
Jack + Anna 44
Gladys + Tristan 42
Gavin + Karina 41
Melissa + Maks 40
Tony + Martina 37
No, Katherine did not do the best ever Jive, although it was very good. People will vote for her if they like her. If she were paired with Derek she would certainly win. Not that I want her to be – I just adore how Derek is with Maria. So adorable. They probably won’t win, but I will love watching them.
@Heidi: I agree! For me this was how the night shaped up:
Best Jive of the Night: Katherine + Mark
Worst Jive of the Night: Martina + Tony
Best Q-Step of the Night: Donald and Peta
Worst Q-Step of the Night: Tristan and Gladys
Donald and Peta, I loved the “sweet home Alabama” vibe
Tristan and Gladys, I think they should have scored better than they did, but I would still have them at the bottom
Well Heidi that is an opinion, to some Katherine’s Jive may be the best, some may like Nicole’s.. other’s will like someone else, but for me, I think Nicole’s final Jive & that Jive by Katherine were the 2 best ever.
I am rooting for Katherine. She is an elegant dancer. My other fav is Gladys..They are too hard on her, she’s a great dancer for any age. Not feeling it for Maria, that donkey laugh of hers is manufactured, dancing with Derek doesn’t always make you a winner.
Well, Candace, Derek has been on 8 seasons and only won 3 times – obviously that doesn’t equal “always”.
As of right now, I’m still anticipating the relatively early exit of Katherine, a la Sabrina, unless they really start pimping her everywhere. And STOP pimping the hell out of William who is less than half the dancer that she is.
Sorry @Princess Heidi..I didn’t realize Derek had been on the show for so looong….you’d think he would have won more often by now. My opinion of laughing hyena Maria remains the same..so long, farewell…..da da da.
Oh Candace – the only one you harm with your posting is yourself. Over and over again.