DWTS Season 14, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers

Ai Ai Ai!!! If you are an overly sensitive fan of any of the couples, this post isn’t for you. What a crap ass night of scoring – the dancing was just fine and many couples excelled…but the judges made a secret trip to Columbia before the season started. And dropped a good bit of coin.

And really, you can’t get Derek and Maria’s phone number right?? Jesus – then you fix it (or try to) during Martina and Tony’s skybox chat..and, if I’m not mistaken, never show their number?? I try REALLY REALLY hard not to buy into conspiracy theories – the simplest explanation always being the best and all that (the simplest explanation is that some of the people working on this show are MUPPETS) – but when you so obviously overscore Sherri and (to a lesser extent) Roshon and then just totally screw over Melissa and Jack what do you expect me to do?? I can’t even describe my thoughts on William and Cheryl without using language that John doesn’t approve of. :-) I’ll just say…so William sticks his ass out and looks uncertain most of the time and he gets one of the higher scores of the night?? At least good old Len doesn’t have a vagina. I’m counting on him to keep it real where William is concerned. Now, if he would throw away the memo from the ABC brass that says “Score the family HIGH”, I would be so proud of him. Seriously, Martina would need well more than 22K votes more than William – they are VERY invested in protecting this guy.

Anyway, I could go on all day. Remember, the scores from last week and this week are added together for the couples total. The total number of points awarded is then divided into the couples total for their percentage of the judges scores. That counts for half of the couples total score. The other half is treated the same way – the total number of votes divided into the votes for a given couple. When you add the two percentages together, the couple with the lowest combined total goes home.

Let’s look at the couples and their percentages of the total:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Place Celebrity Score Percentage
1. Katherine 52 9.65
2. William 49 9.09
2. Roshon 49 9.09
4. Jaleel 48 8.91
5. Maria 46 8.53
5. Sherri 46 8.53
7. Donald 45 8.35
8. Jack 44 8.16
9. Gladys 42 7.79
10. Gavin 41 7.61
11. Melissa 40 7.42
12. Martina 37 6.86

:::sigh::: It’s a great season and even the worst dancers are doing better than the best dancers in many other seasons…so why do the judges insist on playing crazy games?? Katherine did a great job, but in what universe does William get only one point less than her?? They weren’t even close. I don’t think William was even close to Maria. Roshon got the same score tonight as William – he is also not worthy of a point less than Katherine, but he was better than William by a good bit..and he’s such a little cutie. I didn’t think I would like him, but I really do! But he and Sherri’s status with ABC was really showing tonight. Melissa still has issues…but no way was she that much worse than Sherri who missed an entire pass. Who was appropriately scored, IMO?? Well, Gavin, Jaleel, Jack, Donald, Maria and Katherine – but when compared to how other couples were overscored (or in some cases underscored), I’m not so sure any more.

Who’s in danger?? Well, Martina, obviously. What does she need in order to be safe?? She needs ONE of the following things to happen:

–     Martina needs to get 5,565 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa; OR
–     She needs to get 7,425 more votes per million votes cast than Gavin, OR;
–     She needs to get 9,280 more votes per million votes cast than Gladys, OR;
–     She needs to get 13k more votes per million votes cast than Jack, OR;
–     She needs to get 14,900 more votes per million votes cast than Donald.
– She needs to get 16,700 more votes per million votes cast than either Sherri or Maria

And it goes up from there. Martina MIGHT be able to beat Gavin, but I don’t think she beats anyone else other than maybe Jack. That number of votes between her and Melissa is really pretty darn small. Let’s say that Martina gets the votes to pass Melissa (even though I wager pissed off Maks fans alone can span that gap), what does Melissa need to survive another week??  She needs ONE of the following:

–     She needs 1,860 more votes per million votes cast than Gavin, OR;
–     She needs 3,715 more votes per million votes cast than Gladys, OR;
–     She needs 7,425 more votes per million votes cast than Jack, OR;
–     She needs 9,280 more votes per million votes cast than Donald, OR;
–     She needs 11,135 more votes per million votes cast than either Sherri or Maria

Personally, I think Melissa can pass both Gavin and Jack, but I’m skeptical about her getting by anyone else. So the question for Melissa fans is – can Martina generate more votes than her and can both of them get the required votes that would send Gavin home?  This is a bit of a tough call.  What sends Gavin packing?  If all of the following things happen, Gavin goes home:

–     Martina gets 7,425 more votes per million votes cast than he does, AND;
–     Melissa gets 1,860 more votes per million votes cast than he does, AND;
–     Gavin DOESN’T get 1,855 more votes per million votes cast than Gladys, AND;
–     Gavin Doesn’t get 5,565 more votes per million votes cast than Jack, AND;
–     Gavin doesn’t get 7,425 more votes per million votes cast than Donald, and so on from there.

Martina is the key here; I don’t see her getting 7,425 more votes per million votes cast than Gavin, nor do I see her getting the 5,565 needed to stay over Melissa. Those aren’t huge numbers at all, but I don’t think I see it happening.  IF she were to, on an off chance, manage to beat Gavin, I certainly see Melissa getting the 1,860 more votes per million votes cast needed in order to stay over Gavin.   For these reasons, I think it’s down to Martina and Gavin; with Martina going home.

Nobody seems terribly worried about Gladys; and I confess I’m not either. If she makes me look bad, I’ll be pissed, cuz I love her. :-) Are you worried about Jack? Think he’s going to be a “shocking” elimination? That’s a valid fear, until you look at the math. This season seems pretty crazy, but I don’t think this will happen. For Jack to go home, ALL of the following things would have to happen:

– Martina gets 13K more votes per million votes cast than he does, AND;
– Melissa gets 7,425 more votes per million votes cast than he does, AND;
– Gavin gets 5,565 more votes per million votes cast than he does, AND;
– Gladys gets 3,710 more votes per million votes cast than he does, AND;
– Jack DOESN’T get 1,955 more votes per million votes cast than Donald, and;
– Everyone above Jack gets more votes than he does.

Now, I can certainly see Melissa’s and Gladys’ fanbases carrying them past Jack, and I think the people above Jack are getting more votes than him, but I don’t see Gavin or Martina getting those kind of votes. I could be wrong. I have been in the past.

Basically, based on the numbers, I see the top 6 dancers being safe since the voting margin between them and Martina (at least) is so high. I think Donald is likely safe based on sheer force of personality. It’s the bottom five where things get murky. At the end of the day, I think Gladys and Melissa have big enough fanbases to be called safe. Jack is a big question mark, but I’m going to say he’s safe for this week. That leaves us with Gavin and Martina…and I think Gavin is with us for another week. Maybe. :-)