DWTS Season 14, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers
What do you get when you have a five way tie at the bottom of the leaderboard? A big fat mess, that’s what. 🙂 Jaysus, the over scoring continues. I thought Sherri, Jaleel and Gladys were all over scored for sure. Katherine was as well – knock it off with the two 10’s already. She was great and beautiful (and she made me very weepy), but how can you dance so much of a waltz out of hold and still get a 29?? ANYONE else would have gotten dinged for that big time. Donald (love him) starts off with what would have been called a lift if Derek or Maks had done it…and CAI decides she’s on vacay as the lift police. Figures. But on the upside – finally CAI decides to critique William. About damn time. Keep up the good work. The tongue bathes are ridiculous and that 10 was so not deserved.
I saw quite a few people saying they would be surprised if there was more than 10k votes between the top scorer and the bottom rung – Nah, there was more than that. Try 18k – a pretty good number, but not massive. Combine that smallish spread with SERIOUS voting issues, a real bottom two last week, fake crying this week and you got one unpredictable situation.
Yes, if you are a Derek or Maks fan, you know that voting was pure hell last night. Web site was continually saying that I used all my votes when I hadn’t even cast one – this was after an hour or two of “bad gateway” messages – meaning their servers were getting hammered, most likely. And this was at the BEGINNING of the show. Same issue with the phones; call and get the message that you’ve used all your calls from this phone number …on the first call. Again, right after Derek and Maria danced. I saw that Maks fans were having the same issues with the online voting, so I’m assuming that was an issue across the board. So, the passionate fanbases will rule the day, more so than usual. You had to be seriously patient and/or determined to vote last night.
Let’s look at the couples and their percentages of the total:
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Place | Celebrity | Score | Percentage |
1. | Katherine | 29 | 10.36 |
2. | William | 28 | 10.00 |
3. | Maria | 27 | 9.64 |
4. | Donald | 26 | 9.29 |
5. | Jaleel | 25 | 8.93 |
5. | Roshon | 25 | 8.93 |
7. | Sherri | 24 | 8.57 |
7. | Jack | 24 | 8.57 |
7. | Gladys | 24 | 8.57 |
7. | Gavin | 24 | 8.57 |
7. | Melissa | 24 | 8.57 |
At the end of the night, I figured that Katherine, William and Maria were safe…probably. All five of the low scorers would have to get the following votes for any of the top three to go home:
– All five would have to get 17,900 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine;
– All five would have to get 14,300 more votes per million votes cast than William;
– All five would have to get 10,750 more votes per million votes cast than Maria
So, of the bottom five, I only see Maria as possibly getting beat by one of them – Gladys. Even that I’m not so sure about. This is why I figured all three of them would be safe. Not only do the bottom five have to get all those votes, but Roshon, Jaleel and Donald have to get a good number of votes more than them too.
So what does it mean when there are five people tied for last?? It means that each of them only needs ONE vote per million votes cast more than the others to survive. THAT is why it’s so wacky – it could be any of them. To make matters worse, EACH of them only needs 3,575 more votes per million votes cast in order to stay over Roshon and/or Jaleel. :::sigh:::
Some would predict Gavin based on his appearance in the “real” bottom two last week. But as we often say around here – sometimes you get a nice bump in votes for being in the bottom two. Will Gavin? Maybe, but how many votes are his main competitors getting?
If you follow me on twitter, or read the other comments on this site, you know how I felt about Jaleel’s “crying” in the skybox. There is a reason you don’t see much acting from this guy any more…he’s not that good at it. That had fake written all over it and I saw a LOT of commentary last night about it feeling very contrived. Can a fake crying jag be a nail in someone’s coffin?? I have no feel for how he was doing vote wise before last night, so it’s hard to say…but I will say it wouldn’t be a shocking elimination in the slightest. For Jaleel (or Roshon, if you’re worried), ALL of the following would have to happen for him to go home:
– Gavin, Jack, Sherri, Melissa and Gladys ALL get 3,575 more vote per million votes cast than he does, AND;
– Roshon gets ONE more vote per million votes cast than he does, AND;
– Donald, Maria, William and Katherine are all getting more votes than he is.
When I put it like that, it really doesn’t seem like much of a stretch. But that’s still six people who have to do better than him in the voting department. So, analyze it. Most in danger would logically be Gavin, due to being in the bottom two last week. Does Gavin have the fanbase that can rally 3,575 more votes than Jaleel?? And does he get past each of his cohorts in the bottom? Personally, I tend to think that the other four in the bottom are doing better than him…but is Jaleel?? And what about Roshon?? He was put in faux jeopardy last week so one could guess that he wasn’t getting the votes they want him to get…but his dance last night was pretty engaging.
What about Donald?? Is he in any danger? My automatic reaction is to say NO, but let’s look at the numbers just to be on the safe side. For Donald to go home, ALL of the following would have to happen:
– Each of the bottom five dancers would have to get 7,150 more votes per million votes cast than Donald, AND;
– Both Jaleel and Roshon would have to get 3,575 more votes per million votes cast than Donald, AND;
– Donald doesn’t get 3,575 more votes per million votes cast than Maria, nor does he cover the spread between him and William, and between him and Katherine.
So, after all that, I think Donald is safe as well. The rest is a bit of a crap shoot. If the top 4 are safe, that leaves you with:
Roshon
Jaleel
Sherri
Melissa
Gladys
Gavin
Jack
So, you wanna throw a dart at the dart board?? 🙂 It really is a question of popularity AND passion of the fanbases (especially with the difficult voting). Of these 7 people, who isn’t getting the votes, keeping in mind that Jaleel and Roshon had 3575 vote cushion over the rest? I think Gavin is going home, but NONE of the others would surprise me. My second guess would probably be a tie between Melissa and Gladys…but even as I type this I am changing my mind. I’ve changed all these names about three times. I guess we will have to wait and see. 🙂
P.S. Geez…I can’t seem to hit post without saying that my gut is saying Jaleel even though my brain is saying Gavin. But my gut might be biased against fake crying. 🙂
WonDer if the show will reveal the real bottom 2. With scores this close, it would give viewers a better sense how the votes are going.
You’re not alone, Heidi – I agonized over who would go home as well. Kept vacillating between Gavin, Jaleel, Roshon, Melissa, & my beloved Jack. History tells me that it’s probably Gavin, but like you, I wonder if he’s gonna get a stay of execution as a result of his bottom 2 appearance last week, a la David Arquette last season. Also saw a lot of people commenting that he had made a vast improvement (which I’m not so sure I agree with), so I wonder if he’s getting a few more votes tossed his way as a result, too. At this point, I think it’s solely Maks’ fans that are keeping Melissa afloat – question is, is it enough? While I think the controversy surrounding Jaleel may have left a bad taste in some people’s mouths, I have to wonder how many REGULAR folk actually saw the story before last night’s show – I know we the hard-core internet minority did, but what about the more casual viewers of the show? I’m thinking they may not have known about it…but then again, how many were put off by the crocodile tears? Will Roshon be bolstered by his appearance “in jeopardy” last week? At the end of it, I guess I’m most concerned (and paranoid :-P) about Jack – I don’t think he’s gotten any of the same bolstering that some of the other likely elimination candidates have. He’s not controversial, he hasn’t been in the bottom 2, he doesn’t have a pro that’s famous for power-voting fans…he’s just there. So yeah, I gave him all of my votes this week, and I’m hoping it at least keeps him on to dance on rock week 🙂
I would rather it be Jaleel then Gavin. I hope your gut is right. But, I agree with you, it’s like throwing a dart at a dart board.
The only one two I would be really upset about would be Roshon and Sherri. And Sherri only because I would miss Val. Who woulda thought.
I would say keep an eye on Tom’s and Brooke’s twitters for “shocking elimination” talk, but I suppose a lot of people could be considered shocking.
Every Tuesday morning all my co-workers always rehash DWTS from the night before 🙂 I was the only one who knew about the Jaleel story but most of them thought his dance and his crying last night was weird. The consensus was that his 1st week dance was fun, but they’re bored with him and don’t care if he goes home.
Also – I was also getting error messages saying I had reached my voting max when voting for Katherine and Donald. Bad timing for ABC to be experiencing server issues!
Have to agree with your choices in jeopardy but I think Jack and Melissa are most vulnerable. Melissa does not seem to have the support of say Jennifer, Kirstie or Ricki. It also seems like Jack, while good ( and wish he got more judges love but sadly on a night 8s were the new 7s) he was not memorable. He did not have the Gavin improved support.
The Jaleel story is unknown to most casual fans, but they were turned off a bit with the crying.
Wait, they are bringing ack rock week? Is that the theme? Yuck. That might be a good week to pull the whole our pets, will and Kate are struggling. Eek.
I do not mind movie theme week because you could find good songs but rock week was a disappointment.
I got the “voting max” message when voting for Jack and Anna as well. Sounds like it was across the board.
I saw Jack getting a lot of love on Twitter last night, but am not sure how that will translate into votes.
I think Jaleel might have enough to squeak through this week, as off putting as the crying may have been, most people hadn’t’ heard the news of his “fight” with Kym before the show. But if they show it in the packages tonight, he’s a dead man next week, I’m guessing.
I think Mak’s has enough of a fan base to pull Melissa through for another week, but she’s skating on thin ice. As are Jack, Sherry, Gladys.
I voted for both Jack and jaleel last night and had no trouble voting online.
I am hoping Gavin is not going just yet, because I think he’s improving, but I’m going to say I think it’s either him or Jack. Melissa as an outside shot to go.
I voted for Maria, Gavin, and Jack with MANY email accts and phone lines and never had a problem either during the show, right after, or at around 1am.
This is interesting: http://www.contactmusic.com/news/jaleel-white-explains-furious-bust-up-with-kym-johnson_1313606
Plus, when Henry aks Kym about the incident, she’s tightd lipped. Mark says “sources” overexaggerated things, yet Chelsie said that there was something but it’s not her business.
Not to start a panic or anything, but myself, among others, not only had issues with actually getting to the vote for page, but the early votes we had done… for example, right after the show finished airing on the east coast… the early votes were not captured. I had to go back and recast a whole bunch of them. It was a real clusterfornication from about 10 PM to around 11:30 PM when it all seemed to clear up.
My mom is one of those “regular” people who just watches the show and votes from her phone. She doesn’t read any other stories related to DWTS or the contestants. But…she called me last night and said, “What’s with Urkel? I wanted to like him but he’s coming across as arrogant and quite a little turd (love my mom!) last week and this week.” Hmmm…I’m with the rest of you, wondering if he’s just been putting people off all along. I admit, I haven’t really paid him that much attention.
My guts says Gavin’s out tonight, and though I like him and am glad he’ll be going out on kind of a “high,” I won’t say that I’ll miss him too much.
Interesting about the server issues. I think the fanbases were emphasizing the fact that you can vote from the beginning of the show, so a lot of powervoters were probably overloading the system from the get-go. I personally know better than to attempt to vote from my littl’ netbook while watching the show, so I had my usual routine of watching DWTS, then Castle, then shower, then down to the big-ass desktop to vote. By that time, I was having a much easier time than usual, actually, and only got a couple of error messages.
My gut tells me Jack is in trouble (sadly), but really, I don’t think I’d be that surprised if anyone goes home. This week really is about how the vote is going, and I suspect we won’t get to know the true bottom 2 because of that. It’s gonna be a heartbreak a week from now on (except when Sherri goes – I want her gone stat, I really do).
I actually had a bit of trouble voting for Jack this morning – ABC site was moving slow, and it was like it kept trying to refresh itself…the result was a page that kept reloading repeatedly and so quickly that it was almost like a strobe effect. Glad I didn’t have a seizure! Managed to fire off about 225 online votes for Jack & Anna before the cut-off…hope it helps 🙂
Speaking of the voting troubles, just some food for thought: do you guys think it’s possible that if there were enough problems with the voting, they would forego an elimination this week and then do a double one next week? I know we have no precedent for it on this show, but I do remember a few years back on ABDC, they had enough problems with the voting that they threw out all the votes from that week, didn’t do an elim, and then did a double one the following week. Granted, we still don’t know how they’re going to reconcile having 12 couples and only 9 weeks in which to eliminate them without a double elim, but if the problems were severe enough, what options would they have? I sincerely doubt it would actually happen, but I’m curious as to what the protocol would be if they had some sort of catastrophic voting meltdown.
I’m kinda over the whole “did it or didn’t it happen?” debate over Jaleel, but let me just say this: I know for a fact now that SOMETHING happened, but it was not nearly as big & awful as the article made it seem. In other words, don’t believe EVERYTHING you hear…
With 5 couples getting 24, it’s anybody’s guess. I have faith in Heidi’s number crunching, but she’s even having second and third thoughts. Who goes home tonight after all the wonky voting problems everybody had? It will be interesting for sure.
I must be really hard-hearted because all the water-works last night was a complete turn-off. You could tell some of these celebs were thinking the more tears, the more votes I get. Well, there is a National Curmudgeon vacancy. I think I should apply for the position. 🙂
The only ones that I think are safe are William, Maria, Donald, and Katherine. This one is up in the air although I have a feeling Jaleel and Kym will be one of the couples last to be called safe before the elimination.
Rock and roll week next week. Wasn’t that done recently?
Courtney, thanks for the info. I trust you and your sources more than tabloids. Thus I believe you in bringing back rock week.
I really hope it was not Mark or his family who leaked the story. I mention them because he as been known to call tabs and all. Also that specific quote directed at him and the story goes from Donald helping to now just Mark intervening. It makes him look good, even those annoyed with him or not fans are now he is great, etc mand hate to see he did this just to get a tacky mirror ball.i mean Jaleel is nt Katherne’s biggest threat. That Is the cynic in me and hope it is not true. Hate to think another pro would do that.
I aree on the comments for catherine! The judges even said she didnt do enough hold so how the h-e-double hockey sticks can se get 10s?!?!?! I think i prefer the crap judging from previous seasons to this sh*t.
Thanks Heidi and LOL to your state of confusion at the end for who should go. I always look forward to what my boss thinks come Tuesdays too. She didn’t know anything about Jaleel until I told her. However even before telling her, she thought there was something odd about him last night and she thought the skybox tears were fake too. Her favorites last night were William, Donald, and Katherine.She thinks Melissa needs to go. As for my Dad, he’s been splitting up his votes between Cheryl, Donald, and Derek.
This just feels like one of those “shock elimination” weeks…. you know, like the Sabrina Ryan kind of shock elimin? It wouldn’t really surprise me to see any one of the 24’s or 25’s get booted off tonight. Heck, I don’t think I’d be gobsmacked if it was Katherine that gets the boot – we have been wondering about her fan base, after all. So, think I’ll pop some popcorn, and pour a B-I-G glass of wine for tonight… 😉
I also had trouble voting online last night. It was slower than I remember it ever before.
I would prefer Jaleel go home than Gavin, though if Gavin does make it through tonight, I think he’ll probably just get eliminated next week unless he continues to improve or someone else scores lower than him.
#16—Odd you should mention that about MB. I was reminded of a tiff he had with BP season 11 because of “are they or aren’t they” speculation after paps were outside the MInt waiting to click away at them. The blonde lady whose name eludes me right now that was always with her looked annoyed and they same thing happened when she went to see him sing at another club. SB popped up and by some miracle paps taped her all huggy with BP and talking her up about Mark saying she’s adorable and asking his mum if she thinks BP has got what it takes. It all looked staged. Also, one night after Mark, Pia, and Shirley were leaving a restaurant, SB was all like, “Where’s TMZ? Do you work for Harvey?” She wanted to talk to TMZ about what a diamond Pia was….LOL!!!
Anyway, if someone likes you, they protect you and your privacy/business. Someone doesn’t like Jaleel or has no respect for Kym IMHO. All this does is make her uncomfortable and have to deal with the questions and doubts….in addition to JW’s behavior.
This really is a mess. I agree with your predictions of who is definitely safe Heidi. Who will get the boot is no telling. With those 7 lower scores so close together its anyone’s guess. Does the Jaleel “situation” play into this? Possibly. I’m of the opinion the story is true and that now everyone is doing damage control to hush it up. I hate it because I have been a fan of Jaleel’s for a long time. I want to believe the Maks fans can keep Melissa in. Really hard predicting between Gavin, Jack and Roshon. I would love it to be Sherri, but I don’t see that coming. I give up-its a total crap shoot!
thanks, heidi, I really was waiting for this post today.
Hope Jaleel leaves
(you guys have seen this more detailed gossip? http://www.wetpaint.com/dancing-with-the-stars/articles/lucky-charms-dwts-pros-tristan-macmanus–kym-johnson-spotted-together-again)
Well, I voted for Maria and Roshon and had no problem at all.
On line voting took forever last night. I can see where some may have given up. But not me!!!
Whatever happened and Mark helping is good but I find it awful that someone ( seems to be from his camp given past behavior IMO) would use this for their own gain. If the number one concern was for Kym, you tell producers and all and do not leak it to the tabloids.
Maks did have a lift at the beginning of their jive, very much like the one Donald did. He didn’t get called on it either, so I guess the Lift Police truly must not have been in the building last night. 😉
Why do we think Mark leaked this? Did I miss something? I’m by no means a Mark fan, but I don’t think he would leak something like this. He had ample opportunity during interviews last night to make a stink about the whole thing, but any comments of his I’ve read have been well meaning and seemed neutral.
I have no knowledge of Mark’s mother. But, as far as I know Mark is friends with all the pros. Would they really hang out with someone if it could be dangerous to them, i.e. people starting rumors about them?
Yeah, Mak and Melissa did, I noticed that.
I am not sure which couple it was but I thought I noticed a lift in their routine. Maybe my eyes were going crazy but…. Did anyone else notice?
I don’t understand why some think that Mark leaked this story about Kym and Jaleel. Mark and Kym are great friends why would he do that to her and what would he have to gain. In all of the interviews I have seen Mark has said don’t believe what you read, things were blown out of proportion, etc. All of the other pros have said the same thing.
I am totally not sure who will be leaving tonight. At first I was thinking Gavin or Jack but it also could be Melissa. Some people are not liking Roshon – not sure if he is getting the votes. Jaleel may have turned off some people. I agree with you, throw a dart at the dart board and choose.
A few things mostly the family’s past history of calling tabloids. There always hilarious stories that seem from his side. One is how Shannen Doherty was into hi, because Mark is a musician and her type. WTF?! First, pros while popular, are not celebs at that level. But seemed like such a stretch of the story and every “source” in that article was from his side. I do not think necessarily it Mark but could be someone from his camp.
Reading the reports on Jaleel, that specific quote directed at Mark. Way too random and specific. Also the story went from Donald intervened to now only Mark intervened. It is not rumors of others. It just seemed like the story was as much as Jaleel gossip but gossip to make him look good. Just speculation knowing how these tabs work and a lot of the stories are planted for PR.
I guess anyone leaving tonight can be shocking since everyone was scored high but if anyone on the bottom leaves, I will not be surprised.
If Jaleel leaves, I do wonder if that will be a discreet way to handle the situation. Though probably not as big as the tabs made it out to be.
I think the only shocking elimination tonight would be if Katherine or William are eliminated. Clearly they are the judges faves.
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