DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Weeks 1 thru 4 Scorecard

So I’ve been asked a few times if I would do a scorecard of my predictions up to this point since about a third of the season has gone by. I figured: “Why not?” It would be interesting to see just how off the calculated predictions are.

To get started if you noticed there are the initials “P – A – D” this is simply: “Predicted – Actual – Difference”
- Predicted: this is the original calculated predicted scores
- Actual: this is the score that the celeb/pro pairing actually received on the show
- Difference: is the point difference between the predicted and actual scores

So lets look at Week 1:

So it would appear that on average the calculated predicted scores was off by 3 points. That’s a massive point spread. Once in a while it would be spot on: Martina/Tony and Gavin/Karina. Or it would have come close: Melissa/Maksim and Maria/Derek. While the largest point spread seems to come from Jaleel/Kym, Gladys/Tristan and Katherine/Mark.

At first glance there doesn’t seem to be any real correlation between the point difference and the couples’ running order. Except the largest point spreads have all occurred to the three couples that danced towards the end of the show (Katherine, Gladys and Jaleel)… interesting…

So let’s look at Week 2:

The average point difference between the predicted and actual scores have decreased to 2.25 points in Week 2. Unfortunately there doesn’t seem to be much of a (blatant) correlation between the differences of scores and the running order.

The only commonality that I see if that Katherine/Mark once again have one of the largest score difference.

If we were to look at the average point differences between Week 1 and Week 2 for each of the celebs:
- Gavin/Karina: 0 & 0 = 0
- Donald/Driver: 3 & 2 = 2.5
- Roshon/Chelsie: 3 & 4 = 3.5
- Melissa/Maks: 1 & 1 = 1
- Katherine/Mark: 5 & 5 = 5
- Gladys/Tristan: 6 & 2 = 4
- William/Cheryl: 4 & 2 = 3
- Maria/Derek: 1 & 3 = 2
- Martina/Tony: 0 & 3 = 1.5
- Sherri/Val: 4 & 3 = 3.5
- Jack/Anna: 4 & 1 = 2.5
- Jaleel/Kym: 6 & 1 = 3.5

The largest point difference occurs for Katherine/Mark and Gladys/Tristan while Gavin/Karina and Melissa/Maks has had almost no major point difference. One thing I noticed is that the couple that DID get eliminated: Martina/Tony had a score difference average of 1.5 points between Week 1 and Week 2.

So how does this all look at Week 3?

Wow, none of the predicted scores were right in any capacity, with the average point spread of 4. The closest point difference would be Gavin/Karina, Gladys/Tristan, Sherri/Val and Jaleel/Kym all with a point difference of 2 points.

On the other end of the spectrum there is the insane point difference of
- William/Cheryl: 9 points

Followed by:
- Jack/Anna: 7 points
- Katherine/Mark: 6 points
- Donald/Peta: 5 points

Granted with Week 3 being the most memorable year, somehow it kind of makes sense that the celebs would give it their all to the dances that mean the most to them emotionally. Unfortunately it seems to skew the points values too.

And in a case of fortunes reversed, Jack Wagner that had a large point difference in Week 3 was the one that got eliminated in the end as opposed to someone with a smaller point spread as was the case in Week 2.

Since Week 4 was also a “themed week”, did that have any affect on the scores?

And we’re back to a 2 point score difference spread with some scores being close/spot on versus scores that were way off. For three weeks Katherine/Mark was getting the largest score difference (5 – 5 – 6) and now they have virtually none.

So far Gavin seems the most steady to history with another zero (0) point difference week.

There also seems to be a shift happening with the largest point difference:
- Roshon/Chelsie: 5 points
- Donald/Peta: 4 points

And remember the elimination predictions before the season started?

So far nothing has gone totally as planned… however the ones that have been eliminated from the show thus far were already in the bottom four places:
- Martina/Tony: predicted to be 10th
- Jack/Anna: predicted to be 9th
- Sherri/Val: predicted to be 12th

I would laugh if Donald/Peta ends up leaving in Week 5… because even though the predictions won’t be exact, they would be close.

So there you have it, a little bit of a comparison of what has been going on behind the scenes, what do you think? Would you want to see a visual graph of each pairing as they leave to see how they progressed? Let me know what you want to see in relation to these predicted scores vs actual.