DWTS Season 14, Week 4 – Just What Caused That “Shocking” Elimination??
I always see lots of wild theories flying around after (and this time BEFORE) a DWTS Results show about why someone got eliminated. My future former husband, Tom Bergeron, was one of the people acting a bit cray cray – or he hit his head at the same time Melissa did. 
Seriously, the only thing shocking the other night was that Roshon in the bottom two on a night with such a nice spread. So, let’s take a look at what all had to happen for Sherri to leave and for Roshon to find himself in a real bottom 2 situation.
The Sherri deal is pretty easy to explain. Gladys got at least 4,300 more vote per million votes cast than Sherri did. Not a huge number and, considering she’s Gladys Knight, not at all shocking or surprising. The woman is an icon, fer cryin’ out loud. The other part of Sherri’s equation is the other contestants. The important thing to remember is BOTH sides of the equation…it’s not that they might be getting more votes than Sherri at all. She might have been getting similar numbers of votes as all of them, BUT because she had a lower score, it’s not enough to get “the same” number of votes as everyone else, she had to get MORE. That’s what I’m talking about every week in my numbers posts. She has to cover the spread and beat it by a vote. And this week, that was 4,300 votes to surpass either William, Jaleel or Melissa – the next closest competitors.
Let me explain it another way: say that Melissa gets 10,000 votes on Monday night and Gladys knocks it out of the park, getting a ton of votes. In order for Sherri to stay, she would have had to get 14,300 votes. Period. It’s that simple, really. If Sherri is getting MORE votes than Melissa, she can still go home if she doesn’t cover that spread. If Melissa is getting 10,000 votes and Sherri gets 14,000, Sherri still goes home. Now, the reason why the judges are actually important and why it’s important that they do their job well is because the voters don’t do that good of a job either. I don’t find it impossible to believe that Sherri was getting more votes than several dancers…just not ENOUGH more. If that makes sense. THIS is why it’s not a good idea to leave it up to just the viewers or just the judges – they balance each other’s crazy.
The reason why it’s so hard to tell how people are doing with the voters is because it’s typically someone near the bottom of the pack going home, so you don’t get a glimpse of how other dancers are doing. See, Melissa, William and Jaleel may not be getting but just a few more votes than other dancers but it won’t show because between the judges scores and the votes for others it doesn’t work out such that they’re in the bottom. But, the appearance of Roshon in the bottom two is much more illuminating than Sherri’s elimination. If it was just Sherri you wouldn’t know if William was getting 10k or 100k votes – there’s no way of knowing. Although I do think putting him in faux jeopardy might be a clue that he’s not getting the votes they would like. You never know. But with Roshon falling all the way to the bottom two, you at least know that William is doing better in votes than he is.
I saw lots of people saying, “Gladys must be getting TONS of votes” – well the reverse of that is that Roshon was getting no votes. In fact, it almost HAS to be that explanation rather than the other one because it wasn’t just Gladys that beat him; it was William, Jaleel, Melissa, Katherine, Gavin and Maria. Every single one of them covered a spread and definitely got a good number of votes MORE than he did. There’s no denying it. For Roshon to be in the bottom two, ALL of the following had to happen:
- Gladys got at least 25,752 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon, AND;
- William, Jaleel and Melissa ALL got at least 17,167 more votes per million votes than Roshon, AND;
- Gavin got at least 12,875 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon, AND;
- Katherin got at least 8,583 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon, AND;
- Maria got at least ONE more vote per million votes cast than Roshon.
Now, that kinda tells you how the others are doing vote wise, but it’s only revealing how they’re doing relative to Roshon. Why do I say that? Well, Look up. Yeah, Gladys got 25 plus thousand more votes than Roshon did…but how is she doing compared to Donald or William or Jaleel?? We have no idea. Because as tempting as it is to say, “Wow!! Gladys is getting a lot of votes,” the reality is…not necessarily. Gladys could have gotten 60,000 votes, Roshon could have gotten 30,000 votes and Sherri could have gotten 21,400 and Sherri goes home….but it’s entirely possible that everyone else is getting hundreds of thousands of votes. You don’t know. It’s impossible to say.
A similar situation happened in Season 11. Audrina Patridge was the second highest score of the night with a 6 point spread between her and Kurt Warner. Everyone was claiming that Kurt was getting tons of votes and that he would stick around for a while simply because Audrina went home. He was voted off two weeks later. Only Rick Fox and Audrina were standing between him and elimination. When he was voted off, he was tied with Bristol and only 3 points behind Jennifer and Kyle. Same situation – Audrina had to be getting a tiny number of votes relative to EVERYONE else. She got beat by a lot of people that night.
For that reason, I think that it’s much more logical to look at it as Roshon NOT getting votes than it is Gladys (or anyone else) getting a ton of votes. It wasn’t just Gladys who beat him – it was everyone but Sherri and Donald – and Donald probably was too, we just don’t know.
So, did I make that clearer or more confusing?
I so LOVE these!! Thanks for making it all make more sense Miss!!
Okay, confusion has set in….
“It wasn’t just Gladys who beat him – it was everyone but Sherri and Donald – and Donald probably was too, we just don’t know.”
Am I reading this right? Do mean because Donald was at the top of the leaderboard, he probably was getting the votes?
Crystal clear! Thanks for the great post, PH.
I warned a more casual-viewer friend of mine who likes Roshon that she better use all her votes for him and not even consider vote splitting. That said, for the next 3 weeks he’s got a bit of a life preserver via the dance duel.
@Sandy – It basically just means that we really have no way of knowing whether or not Donald was getting a ton of votes because he was the only one higher than Roshon on the leaderboard, thus he could have beat Roshon based on judges’ score alone. With Roshon in the bottom 2, it’s possible that Donald could have gotten zero votes and still beaten Roshon. With everyone else either tied or below Roshon in judges’ scores, we at least have a point of reference to see how many votes they might be getting, since they all manage to surpass him & stay safe. Does that make sense?
I LOVE when you crunch the numbers Heidi! As Vogue said, it helps it all make a more sense.
I was surprised to see Roshon in the bottom two, and as you forewarned prior to, we’d get a lil better sense of voting/fan base, and we did.
I was surprised about Sherri, thought it possible with her being on The View and dancing with Val, whose fan base he’s earned and connected to and also because of Maks…I thought they’d pull it off at least for another week or two. As the competition went on, those who support Maks and Val splitting the vote would cease to happen, fans would have to pick one brother or another.
I think Val is a superb dancer! Hope to see him performing with the pros throughout the remainder of the season. I think should he remain with DWTS in future seasons, he’ll be a force to reckon with…..we might even see a brother dance showdown, which would thrill a whole lotta fans.
Great analysis Heidi.
I also want to add that viewers vote must change week by week. They r easly influenced by judges comments, scores, dance, and dancing order.
I think judges powers r underestimated sometimes. They pimmed Rob last season till we bought it. Or Kirstie a season before that.
Yes, it does, Courtney…thanks!
Thanks Heidi! I love these posts. For me, you made things much clearer and gave me the details I was trying to find to back up my conjectures but failing. *LOL*
Okay, Thanks…
My little brain isn’t what it used to be… And at this stage of my life it probably isn’t going to get any better…
I will have to come back and read this again when my brain fog goes away. I think I’m just one synapse hop away from understanding.
That’s interesting. But hasn’t Roshon avoided the bottom two twice? And the week before Rock Week, he only had 25 judges’ point (just 1 point off the bottom score of 24) yet Gavin and Jack couldn’t get enough votes to make up for that 1 extra judges’ point that Roshon got. So I think that suggests his vote isn’t miniscule.
No, Gail, we don’t actually know that. The fact that he was in the bottom two this past week is *suggestive* that he narrowly avoided it the week he was in “jeopardy” when Martina went home. But we can’t be sure. Remember, if he’s one point off the bottom he doesn’t need to get more votes than the person on the bottom – the person on the bottom has to make up the spread. If they don’t, they’re gone. It doesn’t tell you how Roshon is actually doing.
Now, for my “opinion” as opposed to what we know and don’t know – I think it very likely that Roshon was in the bottom 3 the week they called him “in jeopardy” when Gavin was real bottom two and Martina was real bottom two. And I’m also kind of inclined to believe that MAYBE William was bottom three this past week. I think that sometimes the calling safe order is suggestive and sometimes it’s just for the sake of drama. The question is figuring out which is which. Which is why I like that they’re doing a real bottom two. We’ll find out.
@Gail, Actually, I think Roshon’s vote could be that miniscule, but Jack’s and Gavin’s were even smaller in those weeks which is why they ended up in the bottom 2 and he didn’t. He had a higher judges score so he didn’t need more viewer votes than Gavin or Jack to avoid the bottom two. I don’t mean that as a slight to Roshon because I like the kid and hope he starts getting more vote support.
Sorry PH for what looks like a dup post, we were responding at the same time.
Excellent number crunching, Princess Heidi! As always, it helps to put it all in perspective. And, Maddy said above that voters must be changing their votes each week. I admit that I do that. I voted for Jack until he was eliminated, now I vote for the dances I like the best. I have never taken ballroom lessons, so I’m a true novice about what and how to watch for technical aspects…just what I’ve learned watching this show. But I try to watch for good footwork, frame, arms, musicality…all the stuff we hear about. In the end, if it all comes together for my eyes, I vote for them. So I’m one of the fickle ones that changes each week. That applies to this season only, since I like them all, and don’t have a true favorite…yet.
@Maddy – The judges aren’t completely without influence, but they are not all-powerful, either – take Chelsea Kane, for example. They gushed and overscored and pimped her at every turn during the semifinals and finals in season 12…yet she still got 3rd place, despite having the high score. I’m not even sure she would have even made it to the finale without the boost from the WTA cha-cha. As for Rob – Rob did legitimately improve last season, and his demeanor improved quite a bit as well. The judges may have helped a bit with their positive critiques, but I think his whole “growth” story arc probably had more to do with his continued presence than any propaganda from the judges.
@Gail – I get what you’re saying regarding Roshon, but to kind of relate this to Heidi’s post (and reflect what Cidra said), you could say that it wasn’t so much that Roshon was getting a lot of votes, but that Jack and Gavin were getting very few in comparison. In addition, Roshon scored better than both Gavin & Jack in weeks 2 & 3 – that small margin of judges’ points may have just barely saved Roshon from the bottom 2. With Jack already gone and Gavin gaining popularity, the cushion of judges’ points just didn’t save Roshon from the bottom 2 this week.
And I think this kinda goes along with what Deirdre’s saying about changing who she votes for each week (my mom does the same thing), but Roshon could also be contending with the issue of voter complacency – viewers assume a good dancer is safe based on judges’ points and the fact that they haven’t been in danger yet, so they give their votes to someone else. Voter complacency probably played a big role in Sabrina Bryan’s exit – I’m not sure that she had a TON of votes to begin with, but I think over time those that were voting for her just assumed she’d be safe based on her high scores, and either stopped voting altogether or just gave their votes to someone else. That’s the danger sometimes of being a consistently good dancer from week 1 – if you don’t ever have an off-week, over time fans seem to lose the motivation to vote, because they’ll always assume you’re safe based on scores.
Now that I’ve been reading these Number posts, I wonder if Sabrina ever had the votes to back her up in the first place. She was either at the top or near the top during her run. Her last week, I think she was second from the bottom with Cameron Mathison. She ended up going home. From my voting perspective, it was very hard for me to choose and I ended up splitting votes during the first few weeks. I loved Mel B and I loved Sabrina. But then Jennie Garth took me by storm and I jumped on the Jennie wagon. That Paso is still a memorable one for me. Anyway, this is before I had internet access and so all I was accomplishing were phone votes. The week that Sabrina went home, I think I gave all but one vote to Jennie and one to Mel B or something like that. The point is Sabrina got zip because I honestly did assume she was safe, which is why I started voting more and more for Jennie (That and I LOVED Jennie). So I wonder if the viewers ever truly voted for Sabrina in the first place? Who knows…
Yes, you made that clearer! Thank you for explaining it again! The numbers never lie!
Roshon is the male equivalent to Sabrina IMO—-Has been dancing most of their lives, disney kids, kind of have an annoying quality, and scores relatively high. It seems they don’t connect with the audience for whatever reason. The only difference with Katherine (other than not being a disney kid lol) is she’s not “annoying” to most middle aged viewers.
Interesting comparison between Roshon and Sabrina, Sheery. Kyle was a Disney kid who connected, big-time, but maybe he’s the exception that proves the rule. Guess I’m in the minority because while I’m definitely middle aged, I don’t find Roshon annoying. I love his dimple and I just smile fondly and shake my head over his youthful exuberance and “the world is my oyster” attitude. He *is* very young (maybe suffering from some arrested development because he’s a Disney kid).
I am middle-aged and I enjoy watching Roshon dance. I don’t get turned off by this personality at all. While sometimes he is not the most graceful guy out there I have enjoyed his routines and attitude. I believe someone on this site called him the “rubberband man” and it certainly fits. Here is hoping he lasts a long time.
In regards to Roshon. I’m 58 yrs old, and I do NOT find Roshon at all irritating. I think he is adorable, love his energy and it is obvious he works hard because Chelsie is able to get good performances from him. I guess my point is, it may not be an age thing. Or perhaps I’m unusual (wouldn’t be the first time I’ve been called “odd”…). But, my sis is one year older, and she agrees he is a cutie. I can’t explain why he doesn’t annoy me, where Sherrie did. I’ll think about it…
If I had to compare Roshon to any past contestant, I would say he’s kind of like a combination of Cody Linley & Romeo – he’s got the youthful exuberance of the former, and some of the “swag” of the latter. I remember quite a few people being turned off by Romeo the first few weeks of the show – they complained that he was “cocky” and “acts too cool to be on the show”. I also remember a few folks being irritated with Cody, because the poor kid just seemed to bounce off the walls. I think Roshon is struggling with a combination of those factors – he’s just really excited to dance, and he’s also so used to having a bit of hip-hop “swag” that it’s hard for him to contain it.
I’ve really warmed to him the past few weeks, though – especially seeing him get kinda sad in rehearsal and telling Chelsie he just wants to dance well for her. I can tell he’s really taking this seriously, and is enjoying himself as well. He’s also become my 53-year-old mom’s favorite – which is funny, because Romeo was her favorite in season 12
I think she likes it when the “cool” guys let their guard down. I know Roshon isn’t going to be everyone’s cup of tea, but I don’t get the vibe from him that he’s intentionally being obnoxious or arrogant. Now Jaleel on the other hand…8O
Agreed, Courtney. Jaleel is another issue altogether. Even without the controversial news stories, he just is not coming across as someone I’d want to know. Perhaps it is another case of producer-manipulation, but I’m afraid he is just “that guy”. Not getting my votes.
I’m 33, and I find Roshon extremely irritating. As Courtney put it, for me, it is a combination of him “bouncing off the walls” and his so-called swagger. He seems one-dimensional to me. Personally, I find the incessant rapping/beat-boxing in rehearsals and in the confessionals to be annoying. But, that’s just my opinion, and I’m entitled to it.
As to Jaleel…he just makes me cringe. I really wanted to like him before the season started, but now I just find him trying too hard to make himself seem likable, and it just isn’t working to me.
Being a Chelsie fan led me to being a Roshon fan. I find him super cute, but I can see where people find him annoying. What i like about him him is how honest he is and what a hard worker he is without complaining. Great comparison Courtney of Roshon being a mix of Cody and Romeo. Sometimes he is is a little bit more “me” than “us” with Chelsie. I liked when Romeo started to say he wanted to win for Chelsie, so she could get win for the first time. Rib on the dancetvjunkies video with Anna and Stuart on kinda of slammed Roshon for not connecting with Chelsie and the viewers; and I think Anna kind of agreed. I think he and Chelsie have a great partnership and are so cute together, so I disagree with Rib on that. Roshon needs to find a way to come off better with viewers to get more votes. I will vote like crazy to keep him on
To me, Romeo appeared more ‘cocky’ initially than Roshon, but people like Romeo enough for him to make it to top 5. What I think is the biggest thing against Roshon compared to Romeo is he has dance experience and people has expected him to be great on the get go. With Romeo people can see the improvement arc, but its hard with Roshon even with Chelsie throwing him some hard choreography. Plus people might think he has such a HUGE unfair advantage over others by having years of dancing experience and being so young. If most viewers are middle age, they might vote someone older with no experience no matter how bad the dancing is.
Roshon must be getting miniscule fan votes when you see how many votes all the others had to get to pass him. I personally like him far more than Jaleel for example but I can see why people maybe turned off especially with his dance experience.
Roshon will be helped greatly by this new judges save the next 3 weeks. I don’t see Gavin, Melissa, or Gladys out dancing him in the judges minds.
for me, i get more excited & end up rooting for the celebrity who has no dance skills/ middle-age/ humble/ good chemistry w/ the partner pro & really trying hard each week than those who earned the highest score in their 1st weeks (well w/ exception to nicole, jr, love ricki too, & katherine, etc.)
as per our ”cutie leprechaun” —the thing is, you don’t have to be the best as long as your doing your very best.
I’m 45 years old ( or will be in a couple of weeks), and I adore Roshon. Unlike another contestant on the show who shall remain nameless, Roshon has been upfront about his prior dance experience and has even acknowledged that his background gives him an advantage over some of the other contestants (apparently a first for a DWTS contestant, according to Billy Bush). It appears from the video packages that Roshon struggles with learning the steps to each of the dances just like every one else does. Moreover, I would think that in certain respects it could be harder for him if he has to break “bad habits” learned in hip hop. Of course, I’ve never been one of those DWTS fans who is opposed to having so-called “ringers” on the show because, frankly, I enjoy their performances. I was a fan of Mario Lopez, Kristi Yamaguchi, Shawn Johnson, Evan Lysacek and Jennifer Grey.
In addition, I think in certain respects, Roshon is very mature compared to some of the other contestants. When Brooke asked him about Carrie Ann’s comment that he was the best dancer of the men, Roshon focused on the fact that Carrie Ann had called him a “man” and did not address the “best dancer” part. Roshon also respects Len, yet at the same time is comfortable enough to joke with him. See, e.g., Roshon’s imitating a signature gesture of Len’s after the quickstep and his “Good job, dawg” comment. I must say I really enjoy his interaction with Len. Len genuninely smiles, and Roshon jumps and spins around excitedly when Len pays him a compliment.
Anyway, I am going to try to do my part to keep Roshon in this competition. I am in the process of registering new email accounts with ABC to increase my votes for him. (As an aside, Chelsie and Roshon remind me somewhat of Julianne and Apolo, who are my all-time favorite couple on DWTS.)
for me, sherri leaving wasn’t that shocking…
@IrisandLilies
Great post!!! I agree that Chelsie and Roshon are like Apollo and Julianne 2.0. They are sooo cute together. I can’t wait to see their salsa on Monday.
I wish the judges would comment on the technical difficulty of each team’s dance more.
I agree, Carlos! Actually her leaving was the second most logical.
Sherri leaving was shocking to me. Because it’s 4300 only to over come the ones who got 22. She is on The View! So it was really shocking, although in hindsight not really when the scores came to mind. Until I remember that Roshon had 5 pts lead over her, I totally thought it was Roshon.
Thank you, Heidi. 25752, 17167, 12875, 8583 whew he’s practically getting no votes…. Thank goodness he had 21500 votes/million votes cast cushion from Sherri.
Chelsie is my fave after Derek and Anna, and I do like the young’uns usually
As Harriett at #26 wrote Rib on that video pointed out about Roshon not connecting with the audience, nor Chelsie. I was pretty shocked by this comment. I never quite understand the connecting/not connecting with the audience thing, but I do get the part he said Roshon comes across as being always “Me” But I don’t mind that at all (maybe because I’m Chelsie’s age), that’s just how he is for me, he’s a 20-yr-old male. He is working hard and seriously, and listening to Chelsie, I’m hoping that comes across.
Comparing him to Romeo, I liked Roshon from the beginning, imo Roshon never had that slight too cool for school Romeo had in the beginning. Roshon is just too spastic XD Romeo’s season wasn’t as tight as this one, and he was the like the ultimate plug master; Romeo was never as easily forgotten in the mix as Roshon is right now. So Roshon, please campaign more~!
So glad that many of you like him. I want to see him in the finals with Maria and Donald. He is more fun to me than Katherine so
And Mark’s choreo hasn’t impressed me one bit. I loved Chelsie’s mesh of chacha and hiphop, and she gave Roshon difficult samba moves last week (I understand my objectivity is probably nonexistent 
).
LOL….I don’t think that Roshon focusing on the “Man” part of what Brooke said is anything more than the 18 year old boy who looks 12 coming out in him.
He probably only HEARD the man part.
@wiwin
Good point, about Roshon being forgotten in the shuffle of people. This past week, he had a great dance but everyone else seemed to have something going on like injuries, a bad dance, etc. that got viewers to vote for them.
On a side note, I think that David Cook song is a cursed song for Chelsie. On SYTCD, one of the other couples danced to that song (and had an amazing jazz rountine) and that happened to be the week Chelsie was eliminated.
I love this website!!! As soon as DWTS is over on Monday night I log on to puredwts.com and keep checking in to see the posts about the program. Sometimes it’s more entertaining than the show. I often find myself laughing so hard. I have access to three phones and I phoned in almost all of my votes for Roshon Monday night. I did give a few to Donald and Maria because I did enjoy their dances. I was very surprised that Roshon was in the bottom two since I enjoy his dancing and I think he is really trying hard and is improving. I also really like Chelsie and am glad she is back this season.
At least I am enjoying this season more than several of the past seasons where there was too much drama and such poor dancing at times that it was like having a tooth pulled to watch it.
Thanks BJ!!
Wiwin, Her being on the “View” only matters IF EVERY FAN watches DWTS AND votes. She is a bit polarizing. Many fans love her and many don’t. She also wasn’t paired with one of the more “popular” pros (it’s only his second season). Wonder if she was paired with Maks how the outcome would be? Many Maks fans told me they didn’t split votes.
Just saw that Katherine Jenkins posted this on her Twitter…….
Katherine Jenkins @KathJenkins
@derekhough Another day, another silly story…. http://bit.ly/IG1DMD Little do they know there is a DWTS romance… but it’s not us!!!
Well wonder how it is then?????
Hey! Not nice comments about DH on that page
.
Okay..IF there is one brewing who do y’all think it is?
Jaleel & Kym (HAHAHAHAH!)
Gavin & Karina
Tristan & Kym
Roshon & Chelsie
Maks & Karina …(just to piss people of…again/you know the hugs & cheek kisses)
Katherine & Gavin
Cheryl & Anyone (haha!–not William since he’s seen around everywhere now with his on again off again–thanks tmz lol).
It’s the UK, sheery – lots of the trolls over there are still pissed Derek was with Cheryl Cole for a year.
Im thinking its gavin and karina
… they seem the most obvious…would honestly be suprised if it were anyone else
I think Katherine was probably joking.
I know…I think she’s joking too. However, if she isn’t, maybe she means Emma & Sasha lol.
Roshon is the new Aaron Carter. Young can dance but not getting the votes. I believe in Aaron’s season they had the judges save thing and he kept surviving from that. Roshon better hope that’s not his case.
sheery – some of us were going back & forth on Twitter the other night… If Katherine is going to start DWTS romance rumors, she ought to start one about Gladys & Tristan!
I can see the headline now – The Empress of Soul and her Lucky Charm! HAHAHA! 
I think Katherine is just playing the game. A little bit of mediabuzz for Katherine and Markie.
I personally don’t care about any showmances with any of the pros or celebs. To me, I think it takes the focus to a direction that is not necessary. But some people luv it!