PureDWTS Season 14 Las Vegas Odds For April 12th: Do you agree with the odds makers?

We’ve got another twist this week in the Las Vegas Odds. According to Las Vegas Sports Betting, William Levy (for the first time) has made a dip to 2nd/3rd place (for however you want to read it) compared to first place in previous weeks since the season started. They’ve tied Katherine and Donald in a strong 1st position. Maria is in a 3rd/4th place postition with close to same odds that she had last week….

Donald Driver 2/1
Katherine Jenkins 2/1
William Levy 9/4
Maria Menounos 8/1
Jaleel White 15/1
Roshon Fegan 25/1
Melissa Gilbert 30/1
Gavin DeGraw 75/1
Gladys Knight 100/1

So, what do you think? Do the odds makers have it correct this time? I agree with them for the most part except for Roshon. They are totally underestimating his ability to dance in my opinion. I also think Jaleel needs to be lower on the list. Maria should be ahead of William as well. Let’s get my girls Heidi and Courtney’s thoughts? Be sure you let us know your thoughts as well in the comments section.

Heidi: These odds dudes have to be going insane. :-)  They had William at 7/2 after the first dance (first place) and had Katherine at 7/2.  After the second dance, William shot to 2/1 and now he falls again.  Maria has remained relatively unchanged, but everyone else has been all over the place. And I’m sorry, but if Roshon falls into the bottom 2 with a high score, I sure wouldn’t be saying he’s 25/1.  It’s not just about the dancing!  These guys need to hire us.  What’s really weird is that this is the highest Katherine has ever been…on her worst week. Crack is wack. :-)

Courtney: I’m just marveling at what a profit these bookies stand to make regardless of the outcome of this season – see, these odds add up to more than 100% (the total probability of of someone winning DWTS), so the percentage over 100% – the “overround” is proportional to the profit the bookie stands to make, based on how much is being staked (betted).  Unless Gladys or Gavin manages to come from behind and win this season, and there was a lot of money being bet on them, these bookies are sitting pretty :-) Just a short little peek into the fascinating world of fixed odds betting.  But anywho! I think the oddsmakers are finally starting to calibrate with the rhythm of this season, as these seem to be the most plausible odds we’ve seen from them yet.  I still think they’re overestimating William, and also Roshon – unless they’ve already started to anticipate how the judges might vote in the dance duel, in which case I think they could be more on-the-money.  Based on the judges’ critiques, I’m guessing those two will probably both spared by the judges, should they fall into the bottom 2 – unless it’t with Katherine, Maria, or each other. It will be interesting to see how the odds change after the first dance duel next week – the judges’ behavior could throw the odds into a tailspin. It’s something the oddsmakers haven’t really had to take into account for awhile.