DWTS Season 14, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers

I have an over whelming urge to speak in an Irish accent and say “Holy Mary, over score them din yeh?”   Maybe it was the wine. Or Tristan wearing green.  Or the very obvious overscoring of the “good” dancers to keep them away from the dance duel.  I could get behind that, I guess, if Len hadn’t given Donald an 8 while giving Willy a 9.  In what frackin’ universe, Len??  Frankly, Donald and Katherine were the only ones worthy of tens and Katherine got one too many in my book. Her legs were SO soft, just like I expected them to be. Ah well, if it keeps her out of the dance duel then I guess it served it’s purpose.

But I have to wonder…if you give Katherine two 10′s up against Maria being dropped on her face, William busting his ankle and Melissa’s concussion??? AND Roshon being in the bottom two last week??  Um…uh oh? I sure as hell hope people are voting for her, cuz I like her and she brought back “good” Marky.  I would be a bit worried that people would assume she’s safe…if not for the seriously huge margin. Anyway…

Let’s look at the couples and their percentages of the total:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Place Celebrity Score Percentage
1. Katherine  29 12.95
2. William  29 12.95
2. Donald 27 12.05
4. Maria 27 12.05
5. Roshon 26 11.61
6. Jaleel 24 10.71
6. Gladys 22 9.82
6. Melissa 21 9.38
9. Gavin 19 8.48

Now THAT is a spread. :-)  Even if it’s a faux spread.

Oh Gavin, you are really growing on me. I even think your hat is cute. But I really don’t know if your fans can save you this time. The judges have made it pretty clear that if you hit the bottom two yer goin’ bye bye.  And I will miss you terribly. :-)  Anyway, Gavin has his work cut out for him. Last week he was protected by five people being below him and a Roshon that wasn’t getting any votes. This week he has no protection at all. His nearest competitor is two points up from him. What does he need in order to stay??  He needs ONE of the following things to happen:

-          Gavin needs 8,930 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

-          Gavin needs 13,400 more votes per million votes cast than Gladys, OR;

-          Gavin needs 22,325 more votes per million votes cast than Jaleel, OR;

-          Gavin needs 31,250 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon, OR;

-          Gavin needs 35,720 more votes per million votes cast than either Maria or Donald, OR;

-          Gavin needs 44,650 more votes per million votes cast than either Katherine or William.

And that pretty much sums it up. Gavin MIGHT be able to get the votes to beat Melissa, but I don’t think he’s going to be passing Gladys any time soon.  Let’s say that he gets past Melissa but is still in the bottom two with her – I think he goes home, barring disaster on Melissa’s part. What if Melissa gets the votes and he’s in the bottom two with Gladys?  Ahhh…I dunno. I think they save Gladys, based on their scoring tonight. And the same goes for nearly anyone else. Well, everyone else.

Let’s say that Gavin’s fans really got their sh*t together and he’s not even in the bottom two.  Who’s next?? Well, last week Gavin needed just shy of 13k to beat Roshon…and he did. This week, Gavin needs 31,250 votes per million votes cast to get past Roshon. That’s more than twice as many votes. Combine that with Roshon’s fans getting scared, and I don’t see it happening. So, this week could be revealing once again.  The question is, could Gavin get by Melissa and Gladys, leaving them in the bottom two together? I kind of doubt it, but let’s say Gavin is called safe. What does Melissa need in order to be safe?  She needs ONE of the following:

-          Melissa needs 4,470 more votes per million votes cast than Gladys, OR;

-          Melissa needs 13,400 more votes per million votes cast than Jaleel, OR;

-          Melissa needs 22,325 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon, OR;

-          Melissa needs 26,800 more votes per million votes cast than either Maria or Donald, OR

-          Melissa needs 35,725 more votes per million votes cast than either William or Katherine.

Last week, Melissa needed 17,200 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon…and she got them, obviously. But can she beat the spread this week?? Well, ordinarily I would say sure. She got a concussion and he was nearly eliminated…I think she wins. But I dunno. It may be moot because I don’t really see Gavin getting what he needs.

The Roshon thing is bugging me, since he was in the bottom two last week.  So, the following is a comparison of last week to this week – the number of votes needed per million votes cast for each of the people below him to surpass him.

-          Gavin – 12,875 versus 31,250 this week

-          Melissa – 17,200 versus 22,325 this week

-          Gladys – 25,760 versus 17,857 this week

-          Jaleel – 17,200 versus 8,950 this week

Okay, so Gavin and Melissa need more votes than they did before, but Gladys and Jaleel need less. So, I think Gladys and Jaleel escape the bottom two – well, Gladys does. Maybe. :-) The question is – will it be Gavin and Melissa or Gavin and Roshon? Or Melissa and Roshon?? I gotta tell you, this is scrambling my brain a bit and I understand how it works. At least, I think I do. :-)  The problem is the whole “bottom two” thing…it seems to be a bit easier to make a call on who you think is going home. But making a call on who’s in the bottom two?? You actually need to know more information about how the various dancers are doing in terms of votes. For all we know, Katherine and Mark could be the low vote getters, but are well protected by the judges scores such that they never land in the bottom two – which is why it’s good that the judges are involve. Watch American Idol if you don’t believe that America votes for the cute boy.  Oh, wait a second…CAI and Bruno do that as well!! Never mind.

Anyway, let’s continue on down the path of figuring out who’s likely in danger. I have to go into more detail since were talking bottom two. Next is Gladys. Sooner or later, she may end up in trouble. Is it tonight? Well, here’s what has to happen for Gladys to find herself at the bottom of the list:

-          Melissa gets 4,470 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;

-          Gavin gets 13,400 more votes per million votes cast than her.

-          Gladys doesn’t cover the spread of the dancers above her.

What is the spread, you ask?? I know you Tristan fans are asking, anyway. If Melissa and Gavin are getting plenty of votes to surpass Gladys, here’s what Gladys needs to make sure we have another shocking bottom two; she needs ONE of the following things:

-          Gladys needs 8,930 more votes per million votes cast than Jaleel, OR;

-          Gladys needs 17,857 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon, OR;

-          Gladys needs 22,325 more votes per million votes cast than Maria OR Donald, OR;

-          Gladys needs 31,250 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine or William.

Now, of the above, I think it possible that Gladys beats Roshon again. Remember, she beat him last week and she actually needs fewer votes this week. And I also think it’s possible that she beats Jaleel. Again, I come back to this. If I think Gladys can beat Roshon and Jaleel, can Melissa and Gavin beat Roshon and Jaleel??  I think Melissa can, but Gavin can’t.  So, logically (I think) that means that I think the bottom two is going to be comprised of Roshon, Jaleel and/or Gavin. Although it’s entirely possible that I am over estimating Melissa’s fanbase. Melissa and Maks been pretty under the radar this season.

Hell, this season is tough. It could be Katherine and Maria in the bottom two and I don’t know if I would be that surprised.  But, I have to make a choice, so I’m going to say that the bottom two is going to be comprised of two of the following three people: Gavin, Roshon and Jaleel.  And, unfortunately for him, Gavin loses the dance duel against both of them.  If Melissa is over estimated and it’s her in the dance duel with Gavin, then I’m not so sure that Gavin automatically goes home.

My brain hurts. At the end of the day, no matter how you slice it, I think that Gavin goes home. With an outside chance of it being Melissa.