DWTS Season 14, Week 5 – How Did We Get THAT Bottom Two??
Back by a little demand, I’ve written a little retrospective on how Jaleel and Gavin ended up in the bottom two…or more accurately, how Gladys and Melissa *didn’t* end up in the duel. Again, I tend to believe that it’s not that Melissa and Gladys are getting a ton of votes, but they are getting a good number of votes and Jaleel was getting very little votes. In other words, a combination of factors. Gavin is pretty obvious, I think. His score was low enough that he just couldn’t beat the margin. Of course, it’s possible he beat Jaleel…but we’ll never know for sure.
Anyway, Melissa needed roughly 13,400 more votes per million votes cast to beat the margin between her and Jaleel and clearly, she got it. This I would expect, since Jaleel doesn’t seem to be coming across well to ANYONE, not to mention that she, like others before her, is a TV icon. I doubt very much she has the fanbase of Kirstie Alley or Jennifer Grey, but she still does have one. She’s also pretty personable and she’s bringing out a good side of Maks. I didn’t find this surprising in the least.
Gladys?? The woman was third from the bottom – there was no way that Gavin was catching her. He had a 19 and she had a 22. Here’s what happened for Gladys to be safe; BOTH of the following:
– Gavin didn’t get 13,400 more votes per million votes cast than Her, AND;
– Gladys got roughly 8,950 more votes per million votes cast than Jaleel.
Really, it’s that simple. Note that this says nothing about how Melissa is doing against Gladys, because we don’t actually know. For Jaleel to end up in the bottom two with Gavin, BOTH of the following happened:
– Melissa got 13,400 more votes per million votes cast than Jaleel did, AND;
– Gladys got 8,950 more votes per million votes cast than Jaleel did, AND;
Again, this is not terribly surprising to me. We still have no clue about how Gladys and Melissa are doing compared to each other, OR compared to the rest of the celebs, with the possible exception of Roshon.
What about Roshon? How did he escape the bottom two this time after being in the bottom two the week before?? Well, this is where it gets interesting. At least to me. When Roshon was in the bottom two with Sherri it meant that all of the following happened:
– Gladys got at least 25,752 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon, AND;
– William, Jaleel and Melissa ALL got at least 17,167 more votes per million votes than Roshon, AND;
– Gavin got at least 12,875 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon, AND;
– Katherine got at least 8,583 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon, AND;
– Maria got at least ONE more vote per million votes cast than Roshon.
This past week, Jaleel clearly didn’t cover the spread between him and Roshon, and the spread this past week was 8,930 more votes per million votes cast. So the spread between them was cut in half and Jaleel is no longer beating Roshon. So the question is, is Roshon’s stock rising or is Jaleel’s falling. Or is it both? I think that Roshon got a bump from being in the bottom two with Sherri…but I also think that Jaleel is wearing out his welcome. Jaleel also got a whole bunch of media love this week, from GMA to Wendy Williams to The View. Will it work?? Beats me.
Also keep in mind that this week Gavin needed 31,500 more votes per million votes cast to stay over Roshon. You’ll note, above, when Roshon was in the bottom two the spread between him and Gavin was only 12,875 votes per million votes cast, which Gavin beat to put Roshon in the bottom 2. So, while the tendency some would have would be to say, “Wow, we did it!! We voted enough to save Roshon,” I would respond and say…not necessarily. Gavin could have still been getting more votes than Roshon, just not enough more. He couldn’t beat the spread.
Look at it this way – Roshon gets 40,000 votes, Gavin gets 53,000 votes and Jaleel gets 48,000 votes. Gladys gets 57,000 votes and Melissa gets 61,000 votes. Who goes home?? Roshon is the low vote getter, right? But he’s not even in the bottom two in this group. In this scenario, Gavin and Jaleel are the bottom two (with Gavin going home sans dance duel) – and Gladys and Melissa’s vote totals aren’t that much better, but they are beating the spread needed to beat Jaleel, and Jaleel wasn’t getting the votes to beat Roshon. This is why the bottom two is so misleading. You can easily be the low vote getter and still be safe – it depends on the judges score.
If that sort of scenario continues to play out, and Roshon keeps getting higher scores than Melissa and Gladys, but is lower in voting…he can force Gladys and Melissa into the bottom two by virtue of them not being able to cover the spread. Roshon’s 40k votes versus Gladys 57k and Melissa’s 61k with similar scores?? Means that one of them is in the bottom two with Jaleel next week. But ONLY if the votes are similar in scale to what I’ve written above. We don’t know that’s the case – both Gladys and Melissa could be getting more votes than the top four dancers. We’ll find out this week, I imagine. If there is a double elimination, a real bottom THREE will have to be revealed…so it won’t just be Jaleel and Roshon. Who will the third person be??
Clear as mud?? 🙂
Maybe it might come down to pro partner power? It appears that Maks, Derek and Tristan have a large following, so, out of those three pros, whose voting fan base is the largest?
Another great numbers post. I look forward to these each week.
I would think Maks, Derek and Tristan’s fan bases are larger then Chelsea’?
Thanks again for all the number crunching!!!
Chelsie may or may not have as large of a fanbase as some of the pros but I think she has quite a few dedicated fans that go back to her SYTYCD days. Those fans like me are voting like there is no tomorrow for her and Roshon. Of course after the bottom 2 week for Chelsie and Roshon, I am voting even more and more each week.
When looking back at that week where Roshon was in the bottom 2, there were some factors why some Stars may have gotten more votes (granted it had to be bucket loads) than Roshon like Melissa and Maria’s injuries, William’s and Katherine’s lower scores, Gavin’s 2 bottom 2 appearences, and Jaleel’s alleged blow-out. I’m not saying that is the only reason why they got more votes but maybe a little push that week. Roshon and Chelsie’s dance was great that night, and maybe fans still haven’t learned the lesson of how important voting is even with highscores (his fanbase might not be previous DWTS watchers and familiar with the history). I might be completely wrong with those thoughts, and that’s ok.
I do believe Roshon may not have as many fans as the others in the cast; he was the only I didn’t know when the season started. I think he is winning over more people especially after his William Levy impersonation. I think he is showing so much growth not only as a dancer but as a young man like how to act/be himself in front of the camera.
Right now I keep asking myself which stars do I want to see dance the freestyle. Roshon is at the top of my list and then way below that is Katherine and Donald. When I think back to my voting in previous seasons for less capable dancers like Ty, I honestly don’t think I was looking forward to his dancing just wanted Ty to get there. This season I would just like to see awesome dancing in the finals. It’s been while since I have like a freestyle dance.
Sorry for the long post, I just love Roshon and Chelsie together. Their dancing has been a huge highlight and a great way for me to escape some major personal issues I have had in the last couple of weeks.
Great analysis, Heidi!
Vikayanna,
I don’t know that I would say Tristan’s fanbase is larger than Chelsie. He is quite new-IMO I think his fanbase is growing but I wouldn’t venture out to say its larger than Chelsie’s or that he’s close to Maks, Derek or Mark popularity wise for that matter.-JMO
I think the judges would save Roshon (if he lands in the bottom 2 or 3 if there is a double elimination) over Jaleel, Melissa, or Gladys. Not sure if they would save him over Maria, Katherine, William or Donald. We’ll find out in 3 days! Can hardly wait until Monday to see the dances and how well everyone scores!
I don’t find it surprising at all that neither Melissa nor Gladys were in the bottom 2 this week. I didn’t think they would be, as bad as Gavin danced. And it’s been pretty obvious the support for Jaleel has been dropping off weekly. Add that to his performances getting weaker each week and him being in the bottom 2 was no surprise.
From the first week of competition I thought Martina and Gavin would go before Melissa and Gladys. I also thought there was a very good chance Jack would too. He just didn’t seem to have the fan base/support, and Anna doesn’t seem to have the power voting fan base of other pros.
The only surprise going before them was Sherri, and there’s usually a surprise elimination each season. In this case, I think Sherri put a lot of people off with her personality and her behavior. And I think Val just doesn’t seem to have much of a fan base of his own. IMO, the majority of his fan base are Maks fans that seem to think it’s a requirement they like Val too, or people who see things they like about Maks in Val without all the other crap they don’t like. I’ve long felt Val will never truly be successful on the show as long as Maks is on it with him, which is one reason I was surprised Maks came back this season.
I will not be surprised to see Melissa and Gladys outlast Jaleel at this point. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see them outlast Roshon. However, I’m not sure I see that happening because of the dance duel. That’s why I’m not totally against it.
Thanks for the enlightening post! Now, if I may, is there some chees coming soon?
*ahem* cheese. me+speed typing=2
This is just so fascinating. I LOVE THIS!!! Thanks for putting this together Miss. I’d love it if you did this every week. FASCINATING!!
Amen #4 Harriet! From your typing fingers to God’s ear hahaha but honestly I want to see Chelsie do a freestyle so so badly- Roshon would be able to really contribute with all his hip hop/freestyle background and I just have this feeling it would be dynamite and super crowd pleasing!
Roshan and Chelsie will have a true test with the rumba this week. Roshon has a natural ability in performing precise movements at incredible speed, which he was able to incorporate in most of his dances, with the v waltz as the exception. Rumba is so intimate and slower pace & it must be romantic. Romantic is one thing he hasn’t conveyed in his time. His child goofy attitude is great but not suitable for some dances. I want him to do well, he has the best partner for him. I like him much more than Chelsea Kane, but not as much a Kyle Massey. I predict him barely missing the finals. Like a 4th or 5th place finish.
I’m sorry, but when Gladys Knight and Melissa Gilbert are in the mix their pro’s fanbase likely won’t matter unless they are tying in scores and votes.
And as I always tell the Derek fans – it’s not the size of the fanbase, but the passion of the voters. Derek and Maks likely have the largest fanbases of the men – but if their fans aren’t big voters, it’s not going to do them much good against the newly found passion of Tristan fans – it’s shiny and new, it could be more determined. It’s the same thing as someone like Audrina or Kristin who had how many twitter followers? If their followers can’t be bothered to vote – buh bye.
It’s Roshon, Chelsie needs to slip him a tranquilizer.
@Harriett
I find myself agreeing with all your posts about Roshon so that there is nothing really for me to write about. As for whether Roshon’s fanbase is growing, I have noticed an increase in the number of fans who post about him on the ABC boards. He even has a detractor or two, which suggests that somebody feels that Roshon and Chelsie pose a threat to his/her favorite couple.
@Ayana
I think their freestyle could be the best ever even without any lifts.
@Erikkito
I have the sense that Roshon is really going to work on control this week and slowing things down. Hopefully, the music that he and Chelsie will be dancing to will be conducive to his efforts. Other than possibly the Viennese Waltz, he hasn’t had any slow songs to dance to. They’ve all been pretty fast. IMO Len unfairly slammed Chelsie and Louie Vito for their rumba when his complaint was really directed at the song choice.
PH – THANK YOU for this post! Informative as always. 🙂
I obviously don’t know about Roshon’s fan base in general, but I can say that Roshon is growing on ME. He seems to have the right attitude, is having fun, and has toned down what I first took as a bit of arrogance. I think that Chelsie is going to have to watch out for his desire to put hip-hop moves into the dances. Otherwise, it will hurt his scores, especially with Len.
PH, great point reminding us on all of Jaleel’s “media love” this week. Like you, I wonder how much of an impact it will have. Just my bias showing, but I’m hoping the ultimate answer is “not enough”. 🙂
Well, the good thing about Jaleel being all over the media is that he tends to do more harm than good to himself and his cause.
I’m just happy that Derek and Maria are finally getting some media love this week. Ellen and apparently a good bit on the 20/20 thing. Better than the nothing she’s been getting up to now.
For me it’s hard to put #s in context without knowing how many of the 20 million viewers actually vote.
It doesn’t matter….it’s really percentages.
Heidi, I understand. I believe the popular pros have a core group of power voters, which could be tilt results if total voting is, let’s say, only a few million. I recall Tom tweeted overnight online voting changed things up a couple of weeks ago.
Love the numbers posts – very helpful for perspective and adjusting expectations.
Tom also claimed it was a shocking elimination…and I didn’t find that to be true.
Roshon is an actor. IMO, he’ll play the romantic role just fine, like he did with Viennesse Waltz.
Although I like both William and Katherine as performers, I cannot stand the nauseous pimping of both by TPTB. Katherine’s pro is also my least favorite, so no partner of his will ever get my votes.
IMO, IF Team Rochee does not make the final three (and I’m having a voting party Monday nights to make sure they do), they should do a freestyle for their finale dance, so the viewing public can see what an incredible talent he is. Chelsie is SYTYCD trained and between the two of them, they’d blow the roof off the studio.
To clarify, my Monday night voting party is to make sure Team Rochee makes the final three. Geez.
Katarina (#20) – Yes, I wonder about the same thing. Since we have no idea how many votes are cast, there’s no real way to tell. But the smaller the number of overall voters, the greater the impact of a core of power voters. I wish we had some indication of the total number of votes cast each week, but I know that isn’t going to happen… 🙁
I don’t think Katherine is getting pimped at all – William on the other hand is pimped to the hilt.
If the core power voters had that much impact, Maks would have won by now. And Derek would have won MORE often. I just don’t buy it. I don’t think you can win this show without the general public behind you. Power voters MIGHT save you from elimination for a week or two, but not forever. And I don’t think they will give you the win.
Most of the people who advance on this show have built their own core following. Some who have won this show came with a huge following.
Actually my own opinion is, even though I have favorites and I vote, if my designated favorite needs a bunch of power votes/voters to stay afloat, then maybe they weren’t meant to have that MBT.
Heidi – I’m not saying a core group of power voters would get somebody an MBT. Just that they have an impact, inversely proportional to the overall number of voters.
I posted this on another thread, but I can also see a scenario where a smaller than usual pool of voters might prompt things like the Dance Duel – if there are less than 9 million voters, I could see TPTB wanting to tweak the rules so that a minority of viewers don’t decide who goes home.
In what universe is 9 million voters a small number?? This ain’t American Idol!!
🙂 Didn’t say it was a small number, but based on your ratings posts, anything less than 9 million is less than half of DWTS viewers… and if the pool was down to somewhere between 1 & 2 million?
@Deena I will be joining the Team Rochee Voting Party Monday and stay till voting closes:). Check out the video Chelsie and Roson made. He sings and plays piano to ask for votes. Love it.
I would say that it would have an impact if only one or two pros and only one or two celebrities had power voters – but that is clearly not the case. One doesn’t have to watch twitter for long to know that’s not the case. I would lay money that MOST people voting for a dancer on the show vote the number of times they’re allowed to call. A vast majority.
The fact is – most of the time the best dancers are in the final three or four. If a good dancer is eliminated early, it is usually very easy to explain – and is often predicted by anyone paying attention.
I have to agree with you, Heidi. I think that to a certain extent, the power-voters cancel each other out. I doubt most casual viewers use the online voting option, and as you say simply phone-vote. And it’s really been very rare that the final 3 hasn’t been the ‘right’ final 3 in terms of best dancers.
I think we’re all in “Violent Agreement” – from my perspective, we’re basically saying the same thing.
I agree that the vast majority of the time, the “right 3” are in the finale. But the power voters can, depending on scores, cover the spread for quite a few “normal votes”. I seem to remember power voters who were helping to push Ralph past Romeo, for example; and IIRC, that was a really big spread. He didn’t make it to the finale, but that was an impact.
And I hope you’re right about the power voters basically canceling each other out. But I will say that the most extreme cases of power voters that popped up here on PureDWTS this season were voting for the same dancer. If you believe them (and I’m not sure I do), the two of them together had somewhere around 10,500 verified accounts.
Well, we don’t actually KNOW that about Ralph and Romeo at all. It’s speculation. It’s also fact, however, that Ralph is much more famous and well known to the DWTS main demographic. He’s a perfect fit. Romeo isn’t.
The 10k accounts?? Bull. I don’t buy it. And really, if it’s true they have more problems than Maks not winning an MBT.