Dancing With The Stars Season 14 Las Vegas Odds Going Into Week 7
Sorry we are a little late with these, but, I wanted to wait until Miss Heidi got home from her travels this week so she could add her fun input. With that said,…
The new Las Vegas Odds have been posted at Las Vegas Sports Betting. In comparison to last week’s odds, note how Donald and Katherine have switched places for first, but, not by much. Everyone else is in the same order, though I continue to think they (and the judges) are underestimating Roshon and not giving him enough credit for his ability to dance which I think is sad. Let’s get Heidi’s and Courtney’s thoughts and be sure to let us know your thoughts as well in the comments.
The new Las Vegas Odds for this week:
Katherine Jenkins 7/4
Donald Driver 19/10
William Levy 11/4
Maria Menounos 15/2
Jaleel White 12/1
Roshon Fegan 50/1
Melissa Gilbert 50/1
Last week’s Las Vegas Odds:
Donald Driver 19/10
Katherine Jenkins 2/1
William Levy 9/4
Maria Menounos 8/1
Jaleel White 25/1
Melissa Gilbert 30/1
Roshon Fegan 30/1
Gladys Knight 100/1
Courtney: Not much to say this week – I think they’re finally starting to get close to the actual odds. Kinda sucks, though, that they have put Katherine increasingly closer to 1:1 odds – 1:1 odds signify that you’re basically guaranteed to win, so they must be feeling like Katherine’s got this thing pretty much in the bag. I would like to think that we’re not at the point where things are set in stone yet – that someone like Donald or Maria might be able to swoop in and make a run for the MBT. But sadly, with each week that passes and the judges overscore/underscore certain couples, I’m beginning to think we’re stuck with a Katherine/William finale, and the 3rd spot will be whatever poor couple that can weather the sh*tstorm the best. This season gives me a sad 
Heidi: I dunno…I know an awful lot of Derek fans planning to vote for Donald if Maria gets eliminated. 
I don’t think Katherine has this thing in the bag at all. The key will be once we get past the dance duels and/or the double elimination. Will they start scoring it more realistically or will they keep over scoring Katherine and William to a ridiculous degree until they have safely gotten rid of Melissa/Maria/Roshon??? Really, keep giving William and Katherine undeserved tens and start throwing eights at Maria and even lower at Roshon and Melissa and that’s really all you have to do to engineer the finale you want. Why do they want that particular finale?? Because they’ve gotten it in their heads that if they don’t manipulate the proceedings, the “good” dancers will go home and the audience will either be mad or the show will lose credibility. They’ve made the classic mistake of thinking their audience is stupid. Only a small portion of the audience is truly stupid…and unfortunately, those are the ones with the loudest voices. So, how desperate are they for a William/Katherine finale?? I guess we’ll see.
Maria definitely *should* go home before Roshon. (Of course, that assumes this is a dance competition, which it isn’t.) I’m just sick and tired of seeing Derek around.
The mistake TPTB are making is alienating the core audience that has been there from the start! They are looking for higher ratings by manipulating the scores, but it will backfire! The audience they might be gaining now will not be loyal followers like the fans that have been there from Season 1. The new fans will be fickle and probably wander off to another reality singing show for the next season.
Also, these new fans will figure it out that the winner was determined from the start and it wan’t really a competition at alll When favs are overscored, are over promoted and are given the prime spots in the dancing order, these new fans will think that is how the show always runs. There is no incentive to vote when the judges can undermine what the public wants. The core always knew that the vote counted; and at least, while disappointed when good dancers left, we realized that it was what the public wanted. Now it is what TPTB wants. I guess they can do the show for themselves as the core will be totally turned off. How much disappointment do TPTB think the core can take.
The dance duel stinks and having a double elimination at the end is just cruel. Either plan an extra week, or do the double elimination at the beginning.
They are losing ratings but I believe there are a lot of factors involved. The first would be the “stars” that are chosen. Second, there are a lot of competition shows on TV. Then, you have DVRs and people can watch the show later. But, changing the format and pimping favs is bringing the level of class that DWTS use to have down to a cheaper level. I am very sad about this season, and that is a bloody shame!
I am not sick of Derek….in fact, I am rooting for him to be in the finals….when someone makes remarks about “being sick” of Derek, you are talking about one of the best dancers on the show……without him, I don’t watch anymore……jmo! He and Maria have made the best improvement, seeing that Maria had never danced before.
It is Derek who is making her into a dancer….my two cents!
I agree the judges have been overscoring and underscoring this season. I’m gonna vote like hell for Roshon just for that reason. They have their favorites and it’s not fair bc Ro tries so hard and he’s as good as the rest of them. They are going to lose credibility if they keep this up. The judges bashed Ro last week, but did not give him constructive critisism. Well, maybe Bruno did with his comment about a true Rumba. I can roll with that, but Len and Carrie Ann were pretty much asking Ro to get to steppin. They had the nerve to tell Peta and Cheryl to give their partners more since they could do more. That pissed me off. I don’t know how much longer I will be watching if they keep up this mess. Sorry guys, had to get that off my chest.
Linz, how is it any different from Season 10, when anyone watching knew Nicole was going home with the trophy from the very first show? Yet four seasons later, people are still watching.
Donna, the difference for me is that Nicole was good. JMO, but William? Not so much.. It just feels more manipulated, more scripted, more predetermined than usual. Heck, for me, it’s approaching a WWE-level of scripting…
Linz, you’re right…there is a bit of the “man behind the curtain” aspect to this. They are getting more obvious than they usually are – how long till the average viewer figures it out?
Did everyone think Nicole would win? She had Evan to compete against and she had big ringer backlash.
I do think the overpraised for the judges lets are leading to a boring season. I am so hoping Donald shocks everyone and wins.
I am rooting for Maria and vote for her while she is competing but seems like tptb want the ink 3 of their pets and Donald. Thus the rooting for Donald.
Donna, Len continually over criticized Nicole from week 1 on AND Nicole was a far better dancer than Katherine is – that’s the difference. They actually underscored Nicole on a few occasions. As for knowing she would win from week 1? I sure didn’t – I thought Evan would win for sure, since he was a much bigger ringer going into the show.
I absolutely thought Nicole would win, even over Evan. She was just that much better a dancer.
Everytime I’m reading that the judges or the producers picked their favorites I’m thinking that something is wrong in this pictures. The decision who will go home fast and who will last long is way to important for the success of a season to leave it neither to the judges nor to the voters. Even not to the producers of the show. The judges as well as the producers are only executing what was decided by a silent but powerful group of people. The Viewers.
It’s only up to the viewers to make this fatal decision. The majority of the viewers who either votes or expresses their opinion on boards, blogs and so on and so on. The majority of viewers who is only sitting in front of a tv screen and enjoying the show.
If I would be the tv network I would find a way to get to know the viewer and get know exactly what happend at viewer’s home Monday night. When he’s tuned in, when he’s lost interest, when he’s changed the programm and when he’s maybe returned? Which contestants and/or pro dancer could keep him interested? Which contestant and/or pro dancer could making him forget that he wanted to surf the channel a little bit during the commercial breaks …
And this would be my setup for the next show on next Monday. ’cause if we would strip all the glitter and glamour down and take a look behind the mirrors we would find a big fat strong-box filled with money earned by selling space of my commercial breaks to advertisers who are interested in my viewers. That’s what the show really is about. Money.
And if I would be the tv network I would manipulate the hell out of the show to make sure that my top sellers would last as long as possible and wouldn’t care about contestants who aren’t selling the show to the viewers.
So I guess the best way to support my favorite/s is to make sure that I not only watch the show and vote, but also risk a look at all the commercials during the break which is related to the segment/s of my favorite/s ’cause the tv network will get to know this …
Since when is being the better dancer a guarantee to a win?? Ask Mel B, Lalia Ali, Mya…any number of people, how they feel about that.
I know I way in the minority (probably the one one) but I would like to see an all Guy Final 4 and Final 3. There might not be any romances on the set this season but there seems to be some great Bromances:)
actually….the better dancer almost never wins… for me Stacy (season 2), Mario (season 3), Laila (season 4), Mel B (season 5), Gilles (season 8), Mýa (season 9) have been the better dancer in their season..that did NOT help… and Nicole never had the win in the bag…til the end i thought Evan is gonna win ..all the gold medalists until Evan won the competition..and though i think Kath is the best dancer this season…i don’t think she is gonna win…Donald has a lot of support and Kath is only making a name for herself in USA…and yes…if Maria leaves the competition i will give Donald all my votes… his smile won me over from day one…the fact that he really loves the show is the icing on the cake..
I think the difference between the Nicole season and this one is that the judges scored fairly, didn’t seem to manipulate by under/ over scoring and there was no BS dance duel. We just voted and it all shook out as it was meant to. This season is much too contrived and I also think it will backfire by turning off hard core fans such as the ones that write and visit this site.
I’m thinking the odds are fairly close to accurate. I want Katherine and Donald in the final, and then don’t really care about the third slot except I don’t think Maria or Melissa deserve it. I definitely think that William has been overscored and to a certain extent Roshon has been underscored. I’m not particularly crazy about him, but he is a better dancer than Melissa and Maria and does deserve to stick around longer than them. I want Katherine to win, and believe she deserves to if she continues like she is performing now, but will also be fine with Donald winning.
Since Roshon has been in the Bottom 2 twice, I figure he won’t make it past Week 8.
Personally, I’d like to see Jaleel leave next just to get Kym away from him. He gives off odd vibes to me.
Winter – I’m with you!
Don’t mean to spam the thread, but… I was looking at You Tube last night (it’s a character flaw – I’m a Benny Goodman fan…
). One of the recommended videos was this one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6G8Oxxuhy3s&feature=related
Took me a couple of minutes to recognize the girl in the orange outfit, lip-syncing to the Andrews Sisters…. it’s Kym.
I was never sure Nicole would win even when it became apparent she could deliver the steps and “character”of the dances slightly better than Evan. I figured the Olympian might pull it out bec she had backlash over supposed ringer status plus, for the more puratanical and supposed largest demographic of these audiences,could have had problems over PCD work and being a little less known to them.
About Roschon, nothing against him,I just think his youth works against him. Yes, in most dances he can learn the steps but alot of the character/mood comes from how the couple looks together, if it’s believable overall. This example is a little extreme, but it’s like if you go to competitions and you see these really young kids, say 5 to 10, dancing some of these dances,rumba, tango etc. They can so the steps perfectly, but it looks a little “off”or strange. I don’t think the judges are being cruel when they critique him most of the time, they just want him to realise like they do, he’ll make it a ways but that aspect(immaturity/less control) also colors the view of regular viewers who will always conclude that others are better just based on how it looks as an overall package…even if they aren’t technically better. He also still has some technical problems so I dont think their placement of him has been all that unfair.
…sorry meant to say they can –DO— the steps etc.
If Melissa or Maria have the votes, over Katherine or William, they deserve it IMO. That is why I find frustrating about this season. Stop praising Katherine to the high heavens. She is not that good. Stop overscoring William.
@Courtney and Heidi, I just noticed something from above, in your comments regarding the LV Odds. Neither one of you have mentioned Jaleel…. hmmm, i find that interesting.
I don’t know if Jaleel is still a threat to the competition or not. But the end of the night for me, Jaleel is long forgotten.
Hmmmm….you’re right, Sandy. And that’s probably a bad sign.
These odds seem pretty on target.
I’m really hoping Maria can make it at least as far as the semi-finals. Kath’s samba might have been slightly technically better than Maria’s foxtrot, but not in performance. Kath’s performances bore me to be honest.
I’m menough all the way, but if they get the boot, I’m with Roshon, then Jaleel, then Donald.
It’s all preference and perspective. I never thought Evan was going to be able to beat Nicole. Most of my friends who don’t follow the show online couldn’t stand Evan and wanted to see Erin pull it out if Nicole didn’t. I just personally never thought anything but that Nicole would win from the first week of Season 10.
Courtney: 1-to-1 odds would actually be a “fair bet” (meaning that the “expected value” of a $1.00 bet would be exactly $1.00) if Katherine’s objective probability of winning were 50% (rather than being “practically guaranteed to win” or nearly 100%). At the actual 7-to-4 odds, “fair bet” analysis suggests that Katherine should have an objective probability of winning of only 36.36%.
However, the collective odds on this list would only reflect “fair bets” if the aggregate odds of winning for all 7 couples could total 120.89% (an obvious impossibility). The difference between the aggregate value of these theoretical, “fair bet” odds (120.89%) and the actual aggreate value of each couple’s objective odds of winning (100.00%) is why “the house always wins” in Las Vegas.
Thus, these odds indicate that Las Vegas believes that Katherine has something on the order of a 1/3rd objective probability of taking home the MBT.
Courtney and. Heidi: It is interesting that both of you assume TPTB are angling for a Katherine/William finals. I believe the clearest shoo-in for the finals is Donald (given his ability, his personality and the proven NFL voting strength). I agree with Las Vegas that Katherine will also be there. I further agree with their assessment that William is less likely, and Jaleel is more likely, than they were before this week. I think that Katherine/Donald/Jaleel will be the finalists and that TPTB will be thrilled with that outcome. I believe that Len and Carrie Ann’s mild criticism of William this week will become an increasing trend in coming weeks. America does not favor serial cheaters (which, whether fair or not, is a characterization that William is starting to acquire in the tabloid press).
But come on, Katherine is the best dancer whether her 10s are worthy or not. William gets away with WAY more…
It seems that some are forgetting that the audience loves seeing the “journey” of the celebs, give or take if they are a good or a great dancer. Katherine has been a great dancer since the start and so has Roshon. But why is Katherine more favored than Roshon? I see more of a “journey” with Roshon than I do with Kath at this point One of my twitter friends told me that a lot of the crew of DWTS on that BTS special was British… so go figure…
But back to the “journey”, I think Maria is having the best journey so far because she was a non-dancer and non-performer in the beginning and yet Derek has been able to transform her. Not to mention, the journey of her body healing. I also think Melissa’s “journey” on the show might be resonating with the audience even though she is the weakest dancer left. But I too predict that TPTB will make it so Katherine and William are in the finals. And if Maria is eliminated before the finals, my power voting is going to Mr. Driver… 
I actually really do LOVE Donald!
Thanks for that last comment. I’ve always been about the journey of the celeb and pro more than the talent …for the most part. To me that’s where the real entertainment lies.
I think there have been lots of people who have won who didn’t have much of a “journey”. I didn’t watch seasons 1 and 2, but from my perspective: Apolo, Kristi, Shawn, Donny, Nicole, Jennifer, Hines didn’t have a journey, and I would almost throw JR in there as well. They were all either good from the start, or did nearly the same thing every week, IMO.
I like Katherine. I don’t find her cold or find anything lacking in her performances. She seems to be trying hard, though she does seem to have more training than they’re letting on.
Steve…”sick and tired of seeing Derek around”? OK, I’ll bite, if people will forgive me for repeating myself: Derek is, imho, and a view supported by other major stars like Bill Shatner and Regis, the most talented and exciting performer and choreographer of his generation, as well as having that indefinable quality that cannot be taught or bought: STAR POWER. DWTS is lucky, lucky, lucky to have him because his talent elevates the calibre of the show. His teaching of Maria, a non-dancer, to perform as beautifully as she has, is a huge testament to his abilities.
Anyway, because I am such a Derek fan, I’m hoping Maria makes it to the finals because I’d love to see another Derek freestyle. Having said that, if Maria doesn’t make it to the finals, I am rooting for Katherine to win. I just really love her dancing, her rapport with Mark, and her classy personality.
+1!!^^
Welp, Maria tweeted that her foot is really, really swollen now. She’s not sounding good. Not at all.
I so hope she’s going to be ok.
In the beginning i thought we were gonna have a Roshon, Donald, Katherine finale. I’m starting to drift away from that. Maybe a Katherine, Donald, William finale…. with Katherine for the win.
Just can’t believe that Senior Donald has NOT been awarded one 10! The panel is in love with Katherine, and Maria. Thatz all folks.
You must not have been paying attention when William got a 10 from Bruno for his salsa and a 10 from both Carrie Ann and Bruno for his Argentine tango…oh, and another 10 from Bruno for his rumba last week. Yep, poor, poor William and his lack of 10′s…*snicker*
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