DWTS Season 14, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers
I’m the only one in my family that is into DWTS. This season, my little sister decided to start watching because she knows I work on two websites that are related to it. She’s taken to texting me during the show, but we have little to no discussion about it on a regular basis. But you can tell we’re from the same family. 
Here is a direct quote from my little sister regarding the team dances:
Please mention on your websites that the gratuitous shirtlessness is getting ridiculous and kind of insulting – as if they take off their shirts and we silly women would be dumb enough to vote for that reason alone. Pathetic manipulation pisses me off. Just dance, stupid.
And that pretty much sums up the team dances. She and I neither live in the same town, nor talk on twitter. She wasn’t even a fan of DWTS before this season. Team Tango was so superior to Team Paso that I can’t even believe there was only one point between them. Mark, Derek and Kym’s fingerprints were all over that…saw some of Derek/Kym’s standard moves for teams with a few new nuances that seemed like Mark. Have no idea if Chelsie is in there or not, but it’s clear that all four of them worked in harmony – with the blessing of their celeb partners. Mark can’t get Katherine to do something, so Derek gives it a try. Nice team work. Team Paso, on the other hand, seems to have gotten caught up in their own hype – and frankly, kudos to the men (William and Donald) who made at least token protests against going shirtless. How about you choreograph the damn dance AND pay attention to your partners??? It was sloppy, it borrowed from last season’s team Paso…it just wasn’t as good as it was scored. You know, I have no problem with shirtless men – Derek never did it before his Lambada with Joanna but has done it occasionally after that; maybe once or twice a season. Never really minded when Maks did it, even though I likely made several sarcastic comments about it. Dmitry?? Always has his shirt way open – Always – he’s very proud. Yes, I do tend to mock that. But last night it seemed like their WHOLE entire goal was to get the shirts off those men, in hopes that “us stupid wimmen” would just fall over, enraptured. Ummm…no. It was SO predictable that it annoyed me.
Anyway, I was rather shocked that Katherine did the rumba that I expected but was scored rather appropriately. Shocking. Major props to her and Mark for their lovely reaction to Maria and Derek’s dance and scores – I love seeing stuff like that. It’s a shame the dance duel works against that sort of camaraderie. I am in agreement with Courtney when she says that some couples (Melissa and Maks in particular) got totally screwed by the music. Derek and Maria worked very well within their musical framework, but I don’t see a way that Maks could do the same for his dance. Don’t know what the hell was going on during Roshon’s dance, but I don’t feel he was totally underscored this week…but who can say when several seconds were lost with a view of the giant mirror ball?
Let’s look at the couples and their percentages of the total:
The Judges Scores and Percentages
| Place | Celebrity | Score | Percentage |
| 1. | Maria | 57 | 15.53 |
| 2. | Katherine | 54 | 14.71 |
| 3. | William | 53 | 14.44 |
| 3. | Donald | 53 | 14.44 |
| 5. | Roshon | 52 | 14.17 |
| 6. | Jaleel | 51 | 13.90 |
| 7. | Melissa | 47 | 12.81 |
You may or may not realize, but the more points they hand out, the smaller the margins actually get – especially with fewer dancers. That helps Melissa, for sure…and it makes me wonder what will actually happen tonight. Two weeks ago, when they only had one dance, a three point difference between dancers translated to about 13,400 votes per million votes cast. That’s what Melissa had to get to beat Jaleel back then, and she did. This week, there is a four point difference between Melissa and Jaleel, but it translates to only 10,900 votes per million votes cast. So, to those of you who were asking me about the judges retaining their power and the viewers losing theirs?? I think it’s actually reversed. The judges created a bigger point difference between Melissa and Jaleel, but since more points total were given out, the spread is smaller. Anyway, for Melissa to stay out of the bottom two, she needs TWO of the following things to happen:
- Melissa needs 10,900 more votes per million votes cast than Jaleel, or:
- Melissa needs 13,650 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon, OR;
- Melissa needs 16,350 more votes per million votes cast than either Donald or William, OR;
- Melissa needs 19,100 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, OR;
- Melissa needs 27,250 more votes per million votes cast than Maria.
Melissa has demonstrated in past weeks that she can beat those margins over Jaleel and Roshon, both. In week 5, she beat a more than 13k spread to stay out of the bottom two over Jaleel. And in week 4, Roshon fell into the bottom two with Sherri, meaning that Melissa had to get more than 17k more votes per million votes cast than he did. The spread is smaller now, but there’s another problem as well. All the people who were voting for Gavin, Sherri, Martina, and Jack may now be voting for someone else. Someone other than Melissa. Roshon and Jaleel might be recognized now as better dancers and are getting more votes that Melissa. It’s very hard to say.
Of course, the spreads are small enough now that just about anyone could end up in the bottom two…even Maria. That’s the thing about having a real bottom two and a dance duel…fewer people are protecting you from that happening. Instead of just ONE thing having to happen for someone to be safe (ie, that person gets the votes to beat ONE other person), now that someone has to have TWO things happen. It’s not enough for Melissa to just beat Jaleel…she has to beat BOTH Jaleel and Roshon, or Jaleel and Donald…she has to beat TWO people. Can she do it?? Beats me.
How safe is Jaleel?? Not very. He’s already been in the bottom two and this week he has no protection from it. For him to be safe, he needs TWO of the following things to happen:
- He needs for Melissa to NOT cover the spread outlined above, AND;
- He needs 2,730 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon, OR;
- He needs 5,450 more votes per million votes cast than either Donald or William, OR;
- He needs 8,175 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, OR;
- He needs 16,400 more votes per million votes cast than Maria.
Yeah, Jaleel isn’t very safe, but neither are Roshon, Donald or William. Those are some little, tiny, numbers. That’s not even very much for Katherine. That’s actually a bit frightening…or exciting, depending on your POV. :-) That said, Jaleel has already been in the bottom and I don’t see him having a sudden resurgence with the people who vote. Why would they?? His most memorable move last night was being bleeped (twice) in the team practice. And that brings us to Roshon…he needs TWO of the following things to happen for him to stay out of the bottom two:
- He needs Melissa to not cover the spread, AND/OR;
- He needs Jaleel to not cover the spread, AND/OR;
- He needs to get 2,725 more votes per million votes cast than either Donald or William, OR;
- He needs to get 5,450 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, OR;
- He needs to get 13,625 more votes per million votes cast then Maria.
If Katherine isn’t getting the votes, this is the week that it may become apparent. It all depends on just how poorly Jaleel and Roshon (and Melissa) are doing. If there are any weak vote getters who have been at the top of the leader board, there could be a surprise…and that includes Maria. She’s obviously the safest of the bunch, but those are still not huge spreads. For her to end up in the bottom two would be surprising, because while Melissa might be able to get those numbers, I don’t think Roshon and Jaleel are, as evidenced by their appearances in the bottom two. I think Maria made enough of a splash last night to be safe. And honestly, I think Donald is getting the votes too. But let’s look at Donald and William – they are tied for third place. What do they need in order to stay out of the bottom two?? Two of the following:
- Melissa doesn’t cover the spread between them, AND/OR;
- Jaleel doesn’t cover the spread between them, AND/OR;
- Roshon doesn’t cover the spread between them, AND/OR;
- William or Donald gets ONE more vote than the other, OR;
- Either one of them gets 2,725 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, OR;
- Either one of them gets 10,900 more votes per million votes cast than Maria.
Now, personally, I don’t think either William or Donald have to worry. I don’t think that Jaleel or Roshon are going to cover that spread, and I don’t really think Melissa will either. If it’s NOT some combination of Jaleel/Roshon/Melissa in the bottom two, I think Katherine, and to a much lesser extent, Maria could be in danger. For Katherine to fall into the bottom two, All but one of the following things would have to happen:
- Melissa gets 19,100 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, AND;
- Jaleel gets 8,175 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, AND;
- Roshon gets 5,450 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, AND;
- Donald AND William get 2,725 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, AND;
- Katherine DOESN’T get 8,175 more votes per million votes cast than Maria.
The reason I say “all but one” is because, obviously, that “one” will be the other person in the bottom two. All of those numbers above are REALLY scary small numbers for Katherine fans. That said, it’s much less scary since Roshon and Jaleel have already been in the bottom two. What we don’t know is how well Katherine (Or Maria, Donald and William for that matter) are doing in terms of votes. My guess is that it will be some combination of Roshon/Jaleel/Melissa in the bottom two. But let’s see what has to happen for Maria to fall down into a dance duel. Same as Katherine, ALL but one of the following would have to happen:
- Melissa gets 27,250 more votes per million votes cast than Maria, AND;
- Jaleel gets 16,400 more votes per million votes cast than Maria, AND;
- Roshon gets 13,625 more votes per million votes cast then Maria, AND;
- Donald AND William each get 10,900 more votes per million votes cast than Maria, and;
- Katherine gets 8,175 more votes per million votes cast than Maria.
Based on all of the above, I think that Maria, Donald and William are safe. I think Donald and William are getting enough votes to prevent Roshon and Jaleel (at least) from covering the spread. I think that Maria has enough of a margin of safety that Roshon and Jaleel can’t cover that spread either. And really, if that’s true, it doesn’t matter what Melissa is getting as long as she’s covering Jaleel and Roshon’s spread. And I think she might be. She has before – but you never know when all the lesser but popular dancers drop out, where the votes are going to go…if anywhere.
I think Katherine is PROBABLY safe. I think Melissa is covering the small spread of Roshon and Jaleel. I think the bottom two is likely to be Roshon versus Jaleel, with Jaleel winning the dance duel. If it’s not Roshon versus Jaleel, then I think it will be Jaleel versus Melissa, with Jaleel winning. If Tom starts tweeting about a “shocking” bottom two, start looking at Katherine.
YAY, you don’t know how glad I am to read that Jaleel may indeed go home tonight and how the numbers support it. Now if only the judges feel the same?
And LOL Heidi! Your Sis sounds fun like you are!! That’s cool how she’s watching the show this season. I hope it’s hooked her.
Great post, thank you Heidi!!!
I loved Maria and Derek yesterday – was waiting for this dance since the beginning, they were great!!!
Melissa was painfull to watch – so I am not sure if I want her to stay, but I think it will be Melissa and Roshon in the bottom two, although I hope I am wrong and it is Jaleel that is there and that he will go home.
One more thing – it is funny that even William and Donald started to protest against “shirtless”, really do women only vote based on men’s bodies, even CAI and Bruno did not do it last night, LOL
OH man!!! The Prez is going to give a speech at 7:30pm EST from Afghanistan….please don’t let this be a long dragged out speech with Q&A from press following, and then reporters chatting about the speech afterwards. I want to see Gavin sing, and the dance duel….urgh!!
Thanks for the heads up Sheery…. East coaster here.
Thanks Heidi! I love reading these!
I think either Jaleel or Roshon will be going home tonight.
tonight is gonna be one of those nights…. : /
I was thrilled with Maria last night. She finally looks like a contender.
yeah i agree with the bottom 2 of jaleel & roshon (i think 8 of maks rabid fans alone could cover those spreads)
but i think the judges will save roshon…why?
he is the better dancer
if the the duel is a rumba? he just did his 1 wk ago while jaleel did his over a month ago, and roshon’s rumba was much better than jaleels (scoring aside)
if its by a long shot salsa – roshon’s already done that while jaleel has not…although i do think jaleel could pull off a good salsa (so i hope its a rumba)
So im thinking if they save jaleel, it’s just cuz he’s a more house hold name…which would be unfortunate because the duel is just suppose to be about the dance
When Tom let out that shocker tweet on Rock week, it was already sent out by this time. So unless he does it closer to the show, the bottom 2 is likely any combo of Melissa/Roshon/Jaleel.
Personally I’d like to see the duel be Roshon and Jaleel because I’m tired of the predictable duels. I want one where the judges legitimately like both couples and it’s more of a nailbiter. Something tells me they’d save Jaleel for some stupid reason.
PH – fantastic analysis as always!
I wonder – if the duel comes down to Jaleel and Roshon, would TPTB attempt to manipulate that in Roshon’s favor in order to keep the younger viewers???
I hope Maks and Melissa are called safe early and jaleel going home even though i love kym i dont really care for him
I actually thought the Team Paso dance was pretty good, plus the guys looked so d*mn good that I can’t bring myself to complain about the lack of shirts.
I am hoping that Jaleel goes home tonight.
I hope Jaleel is going home tonight. Melissa and Maks did not deserve 7′s for their dance.
Great analysis Heidi! You really are a wiz with all these numbers and scenarios! I thought both teams were good and I slightly liked team paso more.
I hesistate to put Melissa in the bottom two. Sure she’s arguably the weakest dancer left but I think the judges were a little harsh. I’ve seen a lot of angry Maks fans voting their butts off (or at least claiming too) and I could very well see her getting enough support to stay safe (only to get the boot next week). I think we’ll see a bottom two of Jaleel and Roshon with Jaleel gone. I think they’ll do the ‘in jeopardy’ bit again to keep fans in suspense though.
I was trying to point out to my wife and friends how a team dance (or some other extra score) can actually hurt front runners by making them more vulnerable to being overtaken, especially when the results of the add-on are so close (like one point).
Heidi, you said it much better than I was doing, with numbers. Thank you.
Can you imagine what it would do to the producers if the voting put, say, Katherine and Maria in the bottom two? Then who gets saved?!
Think if Melissa is in the bottom 2 with anyone the judges will let her go no matter how she dances with Maks. They just don’t like Melissa and Maks . Rather nasty I would say.
Lee, Katherine gets saved. I don’t *think* that’s going to happen, just because of Roshon and Jaleel’s history. But you never know.
@PH your sister sounds hilarious- while watching team paso doble i for sure thought they were going to be looking at max 24 points but I keep underestimating the judges ability to piss me off!
I think Melissa might be saved this week. She and Maks both seem to be doing pretty well on votes, or at least better than the other pairs.
About the shirtless issue…. I don’t mind. I really don’t when there is a couple or team that does it one season. But this season there has been sooo many: first Donald, then Derek, Mark was pretty much shirtless (and the cape was weird), and the men on team Paso. Its just a lot more than any other season. There are always guys who have unbottoned shirt or who have it open and thats fine. Idk though, there is another part of me (the feminist side) that says well the ladies hardly wear that much, sometimes just the necessity so why not the guys too? I guess Im just not used to it being soo much. Still team Paso at least had really nice bodies, Mark… not so much (or at least not my taste).
Can’t wait for tonight! I’m thinking it’ll be Jaleel and Roshon with hopefully Roshon winning
I have a feeling Melissa is going to wind up in the dance duel, but I really hope your prediction of Jaleel going home is right. He’s the only person left who I would like to see eliminated. If it is Roshon and Jaleel doing the rumba in the duel, I think Roshon will do a better job. Though Melissa’s not a good dancer, I really do like her.
Though my gut is telling me that Melissa is out, regardlesss of who she ends up in the dance duel with, I also have a slight feeling that it could be Roshon or Jaleel. I would love to see Jaleel leave. Aside from week 1, he hasn’t been the least bit appealing to me. In any case, if Melissa lands there, she’s toast.
In all honesty, I would love to see William go just to see the judges squirm, but I don’t think that’s gonna happen anytime soon. Le sigh.
Personally, I’d love to see William and Katherine in the dance duel just to see the look on the judges faces and what they would do. Not going to happen anytime soon though.
I think it will be Roshon and Melissa in the dance duel, but certainly, Jaleel could be there as well.
Should be an interesting night. And at least if the President interrupts, I have a Canadian channel I can switch to!
Hoping when all is said and done, Melissa and Maksim will be the team to leave the ballroom. Imo, this team is mediocre at their best.
Almost 6:30 pm. and still no shocker tweet from Tom.
Still thinking it’s a combo of Melissa/Jaleel/Roshon.
Does Tom usually tweet clues in advance?
Not usually, unless it’s shocking.
I think if Katherine were to land in the bottom 2, he would tweet something.
Or William I guess. Though I think Melissa not landing the the B2 would also qualify.
Elsee: I don’t think Melissa avoiding the bottom 2 is shocking if the B2 is Roshon and Jaleel. Jaleel has been in the bottom once and Roshon twice. I think they’d save Jaleel in that case because it’d be Roshon’s 3rd B2 appearance.
I’m soooooo scared for Roshon & Chelsie tonight =(
Me too Eric. I don’t want Roshon and Chelsie to go. It wouldn’t be right.
This is where the dance duel bothers me. In the past even people ive liked that have been the best dancers have went home. But that’s part of the excitement. Its almost clear who will be in the duel (and I truly hope im wrong). And by the judges scores last night it’s obvious who would go home. Just my opinion. For me of takes the excitement out of it so unlike most I do hope its SHOCKING!!!
The dance duel hasn’t been all bad in that it’s 2-2 in seeing the weakest dancers home. Somehow doubt it’ll be 3-3 tonight though. Melissa will likely avoid the bottom two altogether OR she’ll surprisingly win the duel.
Dance duel question: The couples know the style of dance they’re dancing, but do they know which song in advance.
Good comment by your sister. I’m sure, when a stranger visits the show, it can look like a parady. Hell, it’s becoming a parady! I only had time to fast forward to Derek and Maria’s dance – based on favorable comments from last night. Terrific. While fast forwarding, however, I saw Mark’s pants-only costume. Who in the hell is telling him he looks good? Either grow some hair on your head or put a shirt on. Otherwise you look like your exercising in a prison yard. And Katherine’s braid could have been a sea monster. Gosh, I’m sorry…
That’s parody.
[...] Heidi: I predicted Roshon would dance against Jaleel in the duel and would lose. My second choice was Melissa versus Jaleel with Jaleel winning. [...]
Yes, Melissa is definitely the weakest dancer left. Can’t say. Am upset with the results….
I’m very happy with the end results of tonight’s elimination show! But, there is the double elimination next week so it only bought two couples another week, but I’m glad of that as well. It’s getting tight!
All this objection to the men taking their shirts off. Yet the pro women dance half or three-quarters naked week after week and no-one has a word to say about it. The double standard is so ingrained that we don’t even recognize it for what it is.
Well, Sandra, that’s a very easy false equivalent. The only problem is that the “half naked women” actually learn how to dance and dance well. Cheryl’s deal seems to be “if we take off all their shirts, people will vote” instead of, “Hey, let’s choreograph something really cool and teach them the Paso Doble”. And I think I was pretty clear on that issue on more than one occasion. Even WILLIAM objected and wants it to be about the dancing. Smart guy.
Heidi pretty much hit the nail on the head, but I think the sticking point in this instance is that the shirtlessness added absolutely NOTHING to the routine from a choreographic standpoint, and also made two of the guys uncomfortable – and for what, some cheap sex appeal that might get them a few extra votes? It may have been a semi-smart move on Cheryl’s part, but I don’t think it was a particularly inspired or innovative move. I found the shirtlessness gratuitous and contrived, and did nothing to enhance the overall impact of the routine. It was just “shirtlessness for the sake of shirtlessness” – I would have rather Cheryl spent more time on coming up with innovative choreography to showcase her partner, than spending that time arguing with him over whether or not he was going to remove his shirt.
As for the ladies – the basis for the ladies being so scantily clad in “real world” ballroom is actually to show off their technique – legs & arms are exposed to show off musculature and extension, and midriffs & hips are often exposed to show off the movement of the ribcage & hips. It also tends to elongate the body, if you have a nice, continuous line of skin. I think that has carried over to DWTS to some degree, and I think you may be shocked to see just how scanty some of the ladies’ costumes are in the real ballroom world. In some ways, I think the costuming of DWTS is actually more modest than real ballroom – you see a lot more drapy details, longer skirts, and fewer cut-outs…and in some ways, I think some of the technique is lost underneath all that fabric. But anyway, at least the scantiness of the womens’ costuming serves a purpose – to show off technique. Complete shirtlessness for men is rare in real ballroom – bare-chestedness, yes, but completely shirtlessness, no. It just doesn’t really add anything to the choreography (especially if the guy is already wearing a shirt unbuttoned down to there and it’s see-thru) and reads as desperate. It also tends to visually shorten the man’s body a bit, since you have bare flesh against black (or gray, or sometimes brown or other colored) pants, rather than the unbroken line of fabric, which tends to elongate the body visually.
“Mark, Derek and Kym’s fingerprints were all over that…saw some of Derek/Kym’s standard moves for teams with a few new nuances that seemed like Mark. Have no idea if Chelsie is in there or not”
- As too Chelsie: With the beginning and the overall theme, I had to immediately think of that performance of hers on sytycd: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aE5AN0t437E
The dancers on SYTYCD don’t choreograph their own bits. Beyond that, there’s practically nothing in common with that routine that couldn’t easily be coincidence.
Thanks for the reply. : )
Sorry, if it came across wrong – English isn’t my first language. I’m german.
I know that she didn’t choreograph that hip hop (!) routine on sytycd, but she learnt it at one point. The violines and the conducting(?) just reminded of it and I watched that just once before, because of Twitch.
That doesn’t usually happen to me, you know, remembering a performance that I didn’t watch again and again over such a long time. I wasn’t even sure if it was Chelsie in that number at first, but I knew it was a blond girl, that was dancing with him.
Coincidence? Probably yes. : ) Can’t and don’t want to say anything against it. Just wanted to share my association(?).