So here we are… we are now officially through “two-thirds” of the season and I’ve been updating and cleaning up my spreadsheet, so that way I could create graphs for you to see how the predicted scores compared with the actual scores of the celebrities that have left us since Week 4 (eventually I’ll update the previous scorecard to include graphs for the first few weeks of the season).
In case you have forgotten from the last time, the initials “P – A – D” are simply:
- Predicted: this is the original calculated predicted scores
- Actual: this is the score that the celeb/pro pairing actually received on the show
- Difference: is the point difference between the predicted and actual scores
I mentioned that there was a 2 point difference with some scores being close/spot on versus scores that were way off. For three weeks Katherine/Mark was getting the largest score difference (5 – 5 – 6) and now they have virtually none.
So far Gavin seems the most steady to history with another zero (0) point difference week.
There also seems to be a shift happening with the largest point difference:
- Roshon/Chelsie: 5 points
- Donald/Peta: 4 points
Did this affect standings of the couples that were in danger on Week 4? Well it depends on how you look at it. Roshon/Chelsie had a massive point difference and they were in the Bottom Two. While Sherri/Val had the average point difference of two and they were sent packing.
Speaking of Sherri, let’s look at how her actual scores on the show compared with the predicted scores over the four weeks she was on the show:
For the first three weeks she was above the predicted scores:
- Week 1 (Foxtrot): 4 point difference
- Week 2 (Jive): 3 point difference
- Week 3 (Rumba): 2 point difference
Then in Week 4 she had a 2-point difference in the other direction. Is this an indication of having a crappy dance (she danced a Tango) or poor scoring? Hard to say, so let’s look at the other eliminated dancers.
This week has an average of a 3-point difference spread. And once again Katherine/Mark had a rather large point difference this week (5 – 5 – 6 – 0 – 5). Donald and Gavin also had rather large point differences, but in different directions:
- Donald/Peta had an actual score that was 4-points more than predicted
- Gavin/Karina had an actual score that was 5-points less than predicted
Speaking of Gavin, he was eliminated in Week 5, so how did his predicted and actual scores compare over time?
For the most part, Gavin’s been pretty close to par… at least til the end when he gets a huge drop in his actual score for the Samba he danced. Since Week 5 was the first time there was a Dance Duel we may never know if he truly was meant to leave… but it doesn’t mean we can’t question the intentions of the judges or TPTB.
So Week 6, Motown Week, I really thought this week was meant in honor of Gladys Knight, and she did kick off the show but… ok well let’s look at the scores first:
Well she ended up being just a point below the predicted score… not too bad. Though once again Katherine/Mark has the largest point difference (4 points) of the couples (5 – 5 – 6 – 0 – 5 – 4), if it was any larger it would have given her a perfect score.
Jaleel/Kym also got a pretty cushy point difference of 4-points. One thing I noticed is that for the first time Roshon/Chelsie had a score that was lower than what was originally predicted, not to mention a rather sizable point difference (3 points).
But lets look at the scores that Gladys posted over her stay on the show thus far:
It would seem that more often than not, Gladys received scores that were lower than predicted, plus the point difference between the predicted and actual scores also seemed to have shrunk. So even though she didn’t receive a massive point difference as Gavin in his last week on the show, she still wasn’t doing all that well.
Again due to the Dance Duel, it’s difficult to figure out if she was truly at the bottom, or really second from the bottom. Moreso because Roshon received such a low score and that was whom she was up against in the Dance Duel…
And now Week 7, the last of the themed weeks… I hope, pray… well it better damn should be.
Hmmm, the average point difference still seems to be “2″, but the largest point difference winner goes to Maria/Derek for having a 5-point difference between their Predicted and Actual score. Though it would seem that the notorious “royal couple” of William and Katherine (sorry, Heidi… it was too good not to steal) both had the second largest point difference of 3-points.
Jaleel has had the most “interesting” scoring progression thus far:
His actual scores seem to have gone through a bit of a dip for a few weeks before reaching the high of 29 in Week 6, then his score dipped again. Also to note is that the differences between his actual and predicted scores seem to be all over the spectrum, no consistency whatsoever.
Both Gavin and Gladys had a predicted elimination later in the season than what actually happened by about four weeks, but what I do find rather funny is that they technically left in the same order that they were predicted, just removed by four weeks. Jaleel on the other hand was predicted to leave around the midway point of the competition which technically is about right, just on the other side of the tracks (so to speak). What do you know! Predictions ARE good for something
Donald was originally predicted to leave rather early in the season, however that is more due to the nature that this is only Peta’s second season on the show not as a troupe dancer. If anything I would say that Donald would be lasting for quite a while. With the remaining six contestants this is how the original predictions would stack up:
Keep in mind the above is based strictly on the Pre-Season numbers and data and is NOT a reflection of my personal opinion. As much as I would love to put in my two cents, but my “job” is to use strictly numbers into predictions and keep my personal opinion out of it, except to comment on noticeable patterns.
So now that two of the three singers are out of the competition, why not bring them back for a vocal duet on a results show, I know Gavin just came back for the results show on Week 7, but seriously how awesome would it be if Gladys and Gavin did a duet? I for one would love to see that happen.