DWTS Season 14 Stats Class – Week 8
The home stretch! Heading into the Last Third of the season. You know what that means? It means that every couple is going to be dancing two dances for the next two weeks… each! This ought to be fun.
So what I am going to do is that below each celebrity I am going to put the predicted scores breakdown for the first dance and do the same for the second dance. Then I will put in the predicted rank as well as my personal comments on each celebrity. Hopefully I’ll be able to keep them all straight in my head 
MELISSA GILBERT
Dance 1: Foxtrot
Average Scores:
- Age: 23.000
- Occupation: 25.500
- Professional Partner: 26.000
Predicted Score: 25
Dance 2: Samba
Average Scores:
- Age: 23.571
- Occupation: 24.500
- Professional Partner: 26.400
- “Trio Partner”: N/A
Predicted Score: 25
Predicted Rank: 6th
Comments: Since we do not know for sure that Melissa would perform the Waltz for her Ballroom dance… but just for the sake of it the only other Actress in their 40s to have done the Waltz was Season 10′s Pamela Anderson on Week 7, but she received a 24. Now that we know that the Foxtrot is what Melissa is dancing for her Ballroom dance, the scores have changed a little bit, as well as her placing… unfortunately. Also unfortunate is that no other actress in their 40s have done the Foxtrot this late in the season. The closest being that Season 5′s Jennie Garth and Season 6′s Marissa Jaret Winokur (who were both Actresses in their 30s) received a 26 and 25 respectively. On the other hand there is no other celebrity in the exact same categories as Melissa that has done a Samba this late in the season. Melissa has been gaining steam slowly and surely… but there is no telling if that upward trend would continue after the scores last week.
ROSHON FEGAN
Dance 1: Foxtrot
Average Scores:
- Age: 25.000
- Occupation: 25.500
- Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score: 25
Dance 2: Paso Doble
Average Scores:
- Age: 27.778
- Occupation: 25.000
- Professional Partner: N/A
- “Trio Partner”: N/A
Predicted Score: 26
Predicted Rank: 5th
Comments: Unfortunately there were no Disney related celebrities that have done the Foxtrot in the last four weeks of the season. On the other hand Season 3′s Monique Coleman and Season 12′s Chelsea Kane both did the Paso Doble in their Week 7 and received a 27 and 26 respectively. Roshon has been getting inconsistent scores and even though I could see him receiving a 25/26 for his dances, whether he actually would is another story altogether.
DONALD DRIVER
Dance 1: Tango
Average Scores:
- Age: 27.250
- Occupation: 24.833
- Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score: 26
Dance 2: Jive
Average Scores:
- Age: 26.600
- Occupation: 25.333
- Professional Partner: N/A
- “Trio Partner”: 28.000
Predicted Score: 27
Predicted Rank: 4th
Comments: The Tango seems to be a rather popular dance to be done by NFL players in their 30s in the last few weeks of the season. You have Season 6′s Jason Taylor (29), Season 7′s Warren Sapp (28), Season 10′s Chad Ochocinco (21), Season 11′s Kurt Warner (24) and Season 12′s Hines Ward (27). Their scores being widespread would average out to Donald’s Predicted score… which is a safe middle. Though I personally believe he has the potential to score higher. As for the Jive: Season 7′s Warren Sapp and Season 12′s Hines Ward both received a 26 while Season 10′s Chad Ochocinco was granted a 24. Seeing that Donald has been receiving stronger scores in recent weeks, it’s not far off the mark that his scores would continue to do so. Though I believe he would actually be off by a point.
WILLIAM LEVY
Dance 1: Foxtrot
Average Scores:
- Age: 26.895
- Occupation: 26.500
- Professional Partner: 25.500
Predicted Score: 26
Dance 2: Paso Doble
Average Scores:
- Age: 27.667
- Occupation: 27.200
- Professional Partner: 28.000
- “Trio Partner”: 26.500
Predicted Score: 27
Predicted Rank: 3rd
Comments: William has a lot of shoes to follow because every actor in their 30s that have performed the Foxtrot later in the season has received a 29 (Season 3′s Mario Lopez and Joey Lawrence and Season 8′s Gilles Marini). Unfortunately his predicted score is a 26, which doesn’t bode well for him. Looking at the Paso Doble, with the same three actors they have received scores of either a 26 (Joey Lawrence) or 30 (Mario and Gilles), so where would that put William? There’s no telling to be honest, but I think a 27 can be considered to be semi-realistic.
MARIA MENOUNOS
Dance 1: Waltz
Average Scores:
- Age: 27.333
- Occupation: 28.000
- Professional Partner: 27.500
Predicted Score: 28
Dance 2: Samba
Average Scores:
- Age: 26.700
- Occupation: 26.500
- Professional Partner: 29.000
- “Trio Partner”: N/A
Predicted Score: 27
Predicted Rank: 2nd
Comments: Even though we’ve had other hostesses in their 30s this late in the season (Season 7′s Brooke Burke and Season 10′s Erin Andrews) neither did the Waltz this late in the season. So there is really no data to glean any information from for Maria. On the other hand, both previous celebs did the Samba and they received a 28 and 29 respectively. Maria is on a high from her perfect score last week, perhaps that upward trend will continue on to this week.
KATHERINE JENKINS
Dance 1: Viennese Waltz
Average Scores:
- Age: 26.909
- Occupation: 27.000
- Professional Partner: 26.667
Predicted Score: 27
Dance 2: ChaCha
Average Scores:
- Age: 27.190
- Occupation: 27.667
- Professional Partner: 28.600
- “Trio Partner”: N/A
Predicted Score: 28
Predicted Rank: 1st
Comments: For a vocalist in their 30s, no one really has done the Viennese Waltz this late in the season, on the other hand Season 8′s Chuck Wicks, Season 9′s Mya and Season 11′s Brandy have all done the Cha-Cha and received a 26, 29 and 28 respectively. Katherine has been on course for a perfect score if not closer to it and she’s been learning to have fun with the Latin dances, would this week be her week? We’ll see.
Oh, my Marianya!
I’m sooooo hoping these scores are spot-on. If so, that would toss it to a fan-base duel between Melissa, Donald, and William, with just a 2-point spread between them… At that point, I’d almost take the bet that William goes home with Roshon in the double elim.
Do you have that problem top, Marianya? Me too.
Seriousy, fascinating as always. Wow, and they are all so neck and neck!!
According to a tweet Maks rt, they will be doing the foxtrot as their ballroom dance…
You guys might want to look at the post before telling me what I posted hours ago.
I wonder about the bases of these predictions _ the past celebrities’ performances or the celebrities that are being judged? Maria is no Jennifer G or Nicole S …. so to equate her with these dancing dwts greats is a bit of a misnomer. I think William is just starting to peak _ he’ll shine in Foxtrot having done the QS in 2nd week and performing the dance in his 8th week (after he has learned enough technique/discipline), he can make this dance his very own (flirty, suave …charming) and his Paso Doble should be very good considering he is dancing with Tony. He’s got the ego to make sure he will look good against the world class dancer. Being competitive, I see him trying his level best and he’ll succeed. Katherine getting high scores for her Waltz and Cha cha cha are expected _ she’s got the lines and the discline and the sexiness to pull off a cheeky latin number. Just my 2 cents.
:::sigh::: bebingc, if you’re going to comment on a post, it would be polite to read the entire series so that you UNDERSTAND how marianya comes up with the numbers, instead of making FALSE jabs in the dark. Puh-lease. Your “2 cents” is not worth anything when you clearly didn’t read how the numbers were arrived at.
@bebingc – I understand that Maria is no Jennifer or Nicole… so let me attempt to break this down for you:
- Age: Maria is in her 30s so anyone that has done the Waltz in the past seasons in the last four weeks of any of the past seasons their scores get averaged out
- Category: Maria is known as a host… as thus any host that has done the Waltz in the past seasons in the last four weeks of any of the past seasons their scores get averaged out
- Pro Partner: Since her partner is Derek, all of his past celebrity partners that have done the waltz in the past seasons in the last four weeks get their scores averaged out.
This is the only breakdown that I could do… to balance out the person that in this case is Maria. Within the comments I compare Maria with the only celebrities that match exactly the categories that she is a part of, minus the celebrity partner.
But I agree with Heidi, this is a continuation of a series of posts… and the first few posts already explained details of the breakdown. So as opposed to jumping to conclusions… ask politely. We are of course humans and not automotrons and as thus can’t stand such comments or tone. Unless of course, you can handle the same being tossed to you.
I love it when the mods yell at people for being stupid. =)
@Tony – Heidi and Courtney yell… I just stay back until I’m suitably annoyed, then I’m the nun that comes on and smacks a ruler across the unruly kids’ knuckles… or if necessary, bum.
LOL^^^
It’s a great read for sure _ these predictions. Stupid? Hmmm … that is quite a stretch but we are all individuals and we read and interpret things differently so I don’t feel insulted.
bebingc – I didn’t call you stupid, but I think it’s VERY clear that you didn’t read the post or previous posts. That you take time to comment after not reading is a bit insulting to the writer of that post.
These predictions seem really on point. I just hope that Melissa scores lower than that (not to be eman but she needs to go).
Princess Heidi, Nope, you didn’t. Am responding to post #8 by Tony _ “I love it when the mods yell at people for being stupid. =) ” I read the article … just don’t agree with the approach/method. We are dealing here with individuals … artists so I’m not going to look at things from a statistical perspective because there are ‘relatives’ that need to be factored in to arrive at rational outcome. And, I keep coming back here because I really enjoy the posts _ some pretty amusing … some really make sense (!!!) and some are ‘hmmmm’ … I don’t believe in just agreeing so I’d be accepted. As they say, “variety is the spice of life’ … Differing opinions can be very stimulating and educational.
But bebingc, you said clearly in your first sentence that Maria should not be compared to Nicole and Jennifer – if you READ the post, I think you would find that that is not what’s going on. Here’s what you said: “Maria is no Jennifer G or Nicole S …. so to equate her with these dancing dwts greats is a bit of a misnomer.” That sentence ALONE shows your either neglect to read the series/post or that you’re arguing just to argue, hoping to find a way to make the predicted score NOT show her in second place. So…which is it? Cuz here’s what Marianya said: “Even though we’ve had other hostesses in their 30s this late in the season (Season 7′s Brooke Burke and Season 10′s Erin Andrews) neither did the Waltz this late in the season. So there is really no data to glean any information from for Maria.”
If you had said that “approach/method” business in your FIRST post, I might believe you…but like I said, your first comment pretty strongly implied you didn’t read/understand the post.
I hate to nitpick but how does one read the comment quoted below. William is scored based on how his predecessors fared in their respective performances … background (profession) … the pro partner’s (scores with previous partners) and age (???) We seem to forget about judges’ biases and even mindsets at the time the scores were delivered. Honestly, Cheryl’s Foxtrot with Chad should not be equated with Gilles’s – two very different people or with Cristian de la Fuente (an actor – was the same age as William is now).
“William has a lot of shoes to follow because every actor in their 30s that have performed the Foxtrot later in the season has received a 29 (Season 3′s Mario Lopez and Joey Lawrence and Season 8′s Gilles Marini). Unfortunately his predicted score is a 26, which doesn’t bode well for him. Looking at the Paso Doble, with the same three actors they have received scores of either a 26 (Joey Lawrence) or 30 (Mario and Gilles), so where would that put William? There’s no telling to be honest, but I think a 27 can be considered to be semi-realistic.”
& William gets a perfect 30! I saw that coming, but agree that was an awesome Foxtrot!
Also thought Katherine’s triio dance was the best of the night, what a “pro” in dancing with that pant leg on, omg & Tristan……..OMG I LOVE U TRISTAN!
I love Derek but that Bollywood thing was bad, WTH was he thinking, no Samba……but I believe it was easier to do that & cover the weakness of Maria in the Latin dances, so in that sense it was smart of him…
Way to not answer the question, bebingc.
What can I say except that scoring is very subjective as well as relative …. When emotions are involved, it’s often hard to look at things objectively. Sometimes, we get so emotionally involved we find ways to make our choices the right ones. For instance, I love Derek’s Latin routine but I go with Len’s score in that it’s so hard to justify that routine as a Samba. Now, as a ‘creative dancing’, that is really entertaining, innovative effort. As a Samba, I have a hard time believing it is … I guess, I just have to forget what a real Samba looks like …. As a Bollywood dance, I’d say it is really quite great!
Ops, I meant to say “Sometimes, we get so emotionally involved we find ways to justify our choices.”
Yep, bebingc – yet you don’t like statistics which removes the emotion from it. Go figure.
I love to use ‘statistical data’ …used it a lot in my work decades years ago (project analysis) but when it comes to something like dancing, particularly in a competition like DWTS where the judges haven’t really defined their standards for judging a performance, it’s kinda hard to use ‘statistic’ as a base for determining scores. It’s so easy to be unemotional when you are only dealing with ‘real’ numbers and data. But dancing is a very different game _ like it or not, emotions will always play a pivotal role in the scoring process.
Goodness, bebingc – you should be a politician. You can’t seem to pick a side or a narrative. MOVE ON.