Since Week 8 is a double elimination week, I felt that it would probably benefit everyone if I went ahead and did a scorecard for this week and probably will continue to do so for the last two weeks of the season thereafter.
So to start, let’s look at how the actual scores on the show compared with those that were predicted:
Before we start, the very last column is just the summation of the differences between the two dances that each couple has to dance.
At first glance there is a 3-point average point difference. Interestingly enough, it is Roshon and William with the largest point differences between their predicted and actual scores with a 5 and 4 respectively. The last time that Roshon had a massive point differentiation was in Week 2 (4 points) and Week 4 (5 points) and both weeks he was in jeopardy. Not that it is saying very much since in the last two weeks he was also in jeopardy and had to dance the dance duel to get out of possible elimination.
So let’s take a look at his scores over the course of the season up to his elimination and compare them to the predicted scores:
He started out stronger than the predicted curve, only to have a couple of mediocre weeks, and one week where he was under the curve and then ends the season strong. Can we say “comeback” storyline? What I found to be rather interesting is that the predicted scores progression has a dip in Week 7, while Roshon’s “dip” in his steady progression happened a week earlier. Is that a blatant manipulation of scoring from TPTB? Who knows for certain, but we could all speculate.
As for Melissa, I don’t recall her ever being in the ‘bottom two’, however when looking at her scores in comparison to others in the season one can’t help but marvel at the sheer strength of her fan base. So let’s look at her scores from the season up to her elimination.
Other than Week 3, Melissa’s scores were either close to par or below par. As we have seen with the past scoring progressions of the already eliminated celebrities (Weeks 1 thru 4 Scorecard and Weeks 4 thru 7 Scorecard) it would appear that celebrities whose scores are either typically below par or rather erratic tend to kick the bucket sooner than expected.
Finally let’s look at the pre-season elimination predictions and how I have been faring thus far:
And the above is why the Pre-Season calculations are a crapshoot. After the first few eliminations, no one else is going according to what was originally predicted. There is simply far too many variables involved to make any kind of accurate guess.
Nevertheless, looking at the numbers is always fun and entertaining. As well as the speculating. =)