DWTS Season 14, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, last night was interesting and somewhat unexpected. I thought for sure they would low ball Maria and Donald to protect Willy. So, what is the deal? Either Maria and Derek are getting good buzz (read: ratings), or Willy is getting an ass ton of votes and no longer needs help. Or both. Mission accomplished. I would be mad over the over scoring except that every single couple was over scored (except Donald)…so it’s all relative. Katherine might have been if not for the weird issues at the end of her second dance. She’s so gorgeous and was so upset that I’m upset for her. I hope she’s okay.

Part of me thinks that perhaps the stress of all the dances up to this point is at the heart of Katherine (and Derek’s) problems. Rarely will you hear me say this, so pay attention. I agree with Maks nearly 100% on his most recent TV Guide Blog. I think the producers have lost sight of the fact that these are actual people involved in this show and not just ratings points.  When you have to start learning 3 full dances essentially 8 to 9 weeks after dancing for the first time it’s asinine. This is too much even for professional dancers – and these professionals are dancing with amateurs, which increases their own risk of injury. You think that Derek, Mark and others aren’t up to their usual standards in choreography? Well, what do you expect when by week 8 they have each choreographed 16 dances?? That is absolutely ridiculous.  Attention producers; we have now reached a point where the quality of dances suffers, people are getting hurt and, really, it’s not just much fun anymore. Jerkwads.  <— Heidi being polite and not using her words of choice.

Anyway, I could go on all night.

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Well, on the face of it, it appears that Katherine is in trouble. And it’s warranted, based on her dances. But part of me is having some trouble with this, mainly because it just didn’t go how I expected it to go. So, I don’t know if I should be suspicious or if I should just take it on face value. But really, Katherine didn’t do all that well. So, I dunno. I thought Maria was over scored on her Jive, but I liked it. I thought William was overscored on both dances…and I was bored on both of them. Donald, I feel, is a much better dancer than William is and yet can’t get the scores that William does…but I don’t think he needs them. Like Courtney, I think he’s safe as hell. So, all things considered, no one was terribly screwed over and EVERYONE was overscored at one point, so it all comes out in the wash.

Katherine is at the bottom of the leaderboard and is now one of the walking wounded (and really, can Katherine, Maria or Derek actually DO a freestyle at this point?) – what does she need in order to stick around? Well, surprisingly, a good bit. Yeah, we have two dances…but we also have fewer dancers which means that the spread opens up a bit again.  Katherine needs ONE of the following in order to stick around:

–          Katherine needs 4,350 more votes per million votes cast than Donald, OR;

–          Katherine needs 8,700 more votes per million votes cast than William, OR;

–          Katherine needs 13,050 more votes per million votes cast than Maria.

That last one might just be the nail in Katherine’s coffin.  I still believe that it was between Katherine and Maria for the finale and those scores may have done her in. I don’t think she can beat either Donald or William – although I would very much love for her to be in the finale over William. She may be a technically better dancer than those left, but she is also the dancer who connects to her partner, the dance and the audience the least out of those left. And, like it or not, that COUNTS. So, it’s a toss up.

What about William and Donald? Well, I think Donald is safe, but let’s look how easy it would be for him to stay. Donald needs ONE of the following in order to make the finale:

–          Donald needs for Katherine to NOT cover the spread, OR;

–          Donald needs 4,350 more votes per million votes cast than William, OR;

–          Donald needs 8,700 more votes per million votes cast than Maria.

Personally, I think he’s getting all of the above. I don’t see him NOT winning this show if this sort of scoring keeps up. Does he have it in the bag?? Well, the judges and their crack pipes will have the ultimate say. Carrie Ann Innaba actually said, out loud, that Katherine’s quickstep was the best dance she’s seen on the show. That sort of hyperbole and idiotic statement can influence her own score, so if she scores Willy with her loins next week and Donald has one tiny slip?? Fuggetaboutit.  :::sigh:::

William. Really, people complain about Maria being overscored when William is in the top 4? Silly. Anyway, William will likely be, unfortunately, safe. Where there are two judges scoring with genitalia, there are likely to be some cray cray female’s doing exactly the same thing.  William needs the following to be safe:

–          William needs Katherine to not cover the spread (8,700 votes), OR;

–          William needs Donald to not cover the spread (4,350 votes), OR;

–          William needs 4,350 more votes per million votes cast than Maria.

Unfortunately, I think William beats everyone but Donald. I would SO love to be wrong and see him get the boot, but I don’t see it happening, mainly due to Katherine.

Maria? I think she’s safe, but you just never know. With the games that the producers and the judges have been playing this season, it’s entirely possible that they are setting Maria up for a shocking elimination tomorrow night. But I don’t think Katherine can get those votes. Hard to say. Honestly, it hurt to watch Maria and Derek dance – I can’t believe Derek did some of what he did with Maria in either dance, after reading about how he was hurt.  Geez, people, yer killin’ me.  Anyway, what would it take for Maria to be eliminated?? ALL of the following have to happen:

–          Katherine has to get 13,050 more votes per million votes cast than Maria, AND;

–          Donald has to get 8,700 more votes per million votes cast than Maria, AND;

–          William has to get 4,350 more votes per million votes cast than Maria.

Donald and William are probably doing that with some ease, but Katherine? I don’t think so. As a result, I think we still come down to Katherine and Maria, with Katherine going home. If not Katherine, then Maria. Being in the top spot this late in the game can lead to complacency and complacency is trouble. I wouldn’t be shocked by Maria OR Katherine.