DWTS Season 14, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers
Well, last night was interesting and somewhat unexpected. I thought for sure they would low ball Maria and Donald to protect Willy. So, what is the deal? Either Maria and Derek are getting good buzz (read: ratings), or Willy is getting an ass ton of votes and no longer needs help. Or both. Mission accomplished. I would be mad over the over scoring except that every single couple was over scored (except Donald)…so it’s all relative. Katherine might have been if not for the weird issues at the end of her second dance. She’s so gorgeous and was so upset that I’m upset for her. I hope she’s okay.
Part of me thinks that perhaps the stress of all the dances up to this point is at the heart of Katherine (and Derek’s) problems. Rarely will you hear me say this, so pay attention. I agree with Maks nearly 100% on his most recent TV Guide Blog. I think the producers have lost sight of the fact that these are actual people involved in this show and not just ratings points. When you have to start learning 3 full dances essentially 8 to 9 weeks after dancing for the first time it’s asinine. This is too much even for professional dancers – and these professionals are dancing with amateurs, which increases their own risk of injury. You think that Derek, Mark and others aren’t up to their usual standards in choreography? Well, what do you expect when by week 8 they have each choreographed 16 dances?? That is absolutely ridiculous. Attention producers; we have now reached a point where the quality of dances suffers, people are getting hurt and, really, it’s not just much fun anymore. Jerkwads. <— Heidi being polite and not using her words of choice.
Anyway, I could go on all night.
The Judges Scores and Percentages
| Place | Celebrity | Score | Percentage |
| 1. | Maria | 59 | 25.65 |
| 2. | William | 58 | 25.22 |
| 3. | Donald | 57 | 24.78 |
| 4. | Katherine | 56 | 24.35 |
Well, on the face of it, it appears that Katherine is in trouble. And it’s warranted, based on her dances. But part of me is having some trouble with this, mainly because it just didn’t go how I expected it to go. So, I don’t know if I should be suspicious or if I should just take it on face value. But really, Katherine didn’t do all that well. So, I dunno. I thought Maria was over scored on her Jive, but I liked it. I thought William was overscored on both dances…and I was bored on both of them. Donald, I feel, is a much better dancer than William is and yet can’t get the scores that William does…but I don’t think he needs them. Like Courtney, I think he’s safe as hell. So, all things considered, no one was terribly screwed over and EVERYONE was overscored at one point, so it all comes out in the wash.
Katherine is at the bottom of the leaderboard and is now one of the walking wounded (and really, can Katherine, Maria or Derek actually DO a freestyle at this point?) – what does she need in order to stick around? Well, surprisingly, a good bit. Yeah, we have two dances…but we also have fewer dancers which means that the spread opens up a bit again. Katherine needs ONE of the following in order to stick around:
- Katherine needs 4,350 more votes per million votes cast than Donald, OR;
- Katherine needs 8,700 more votes per million votes cast than William, OR;
- Katherine needs 13,050 more votes per million votes cast than Maria.
That last one might just be the nail in Katherine’s coffin. I still believe that it was between Katherine and Maria for the finale and those scores may have done her in. I don’t think she can beat either Donald or William – although I would very much love for her to be in the finale over William. She may be a technically better dancer than those left, but she is also the dancer who connects to her partner, the dance and the audience the least out of those left. And, like it or not, that COUNTS. So, it’s a toss up.
What about William and Donald? Well, I think Donald is safe, but let’s look how easy it would be for him to stay. Donald needs ONE of the following in order to make the finale:
- Donald needs for Katherine to NOT cover the spread, OR;
- Donald needs 4,350 more votes per million votes cast than William, OR;
- Donald needs 8,700 more votes per million votes cast than Maria.
Personally, I think he’s getting all of the above. I don’t see him NOT winning this show if this sort of scoring keeps up. Does he have it in the bag?? Well, the judges and their crack pipes will have the ultimate say. Carrie Ann Innaba actually said, out loud, that Katherine’s quickstep was the best dance she’s seen on the show. That sort of hyperbole and idiotic statement can influence her own score, so if she scores Willy with her loins next week and Donald has one tiny slip?? Fuggetaboutit. :::sigh:::
William. Really, people complain about Maria being overscored when William is in the top 4? Silly. Anyway, William will likely be, unfortunately, safe. Where there are two judges scoring with genitalia, there are likely to be some cray cray female’s doing exactly the same thing. William needs the following to be safe:
- William needs Katherine to not cover the spread (8,700 votes), OR;
- William needs Donald to not cover the spread (4,350 votes), OR;
- William needs 4,350 more votes per million votes cast than Maria.
Unfortunately, I think William beats everyone but Donald. I would SO love to be wrong and see him get the boot, but I don’t see it happening, mainly due to Katherine.
Maria? I think she’s safe, but you just never know. With the games that the producers and the judges have been playing this season, it’s entirely possible that they are setting Maria up for a shocking elimination tomorrow night. But I don’t think Katherine can get those votes. Hard to say. Honestly, it hurt to watch Maria and Derek dance – I can’t believe Derek did some of what he did with Maria in either dance, after reading about how he was hurt. Geez, people, yer killin’ me. Anyway, what would it take for Maria to be eliminated?? ALL of the following have to happen:
- Katherine has to get 13,050 more votes per million votes cast than Maria, AND;
- Donald has to get 8,700 more votes per million votes cast than Maria, AND;
- William has to get 4,350 more votes per million votes cast than Maria.
Donald and William are probably doing that with some ease, but Katherine? I don’t think so. As a result, I think we still come down to Katherine and Maria, with Katherine going home. If not Katherine, then Maria. Being in the top spot this late in the game can lead to complacency and complacency is trouble. I wouldn’t be shocked by Maria OR Katherine.
Thanks Vogue!
Fascinating numbers posts as always!! I love these. I’m with you. I think it will be between Katherine or Maria who go. I think it will most likely be Katherine.
I know when I call in, I have no problem getting through and voting for Katherine. However, my question is whether or not she is getting the internet vote from back home in England? Just a thought.
I will say that Donald has been underscored this season. He is a hard working guy and deserves to be in the finals.
Maria has put forward some amazing dances and has overcome her injuries like a champ! I was terrified when I read that Derek was hurt pretty badly. I was holding the pillow close to me with every movement they made in both dances. I wasn’t a huge fan of their Jive only because the song. Their AT was amazing I thought and the end moment between them two made me a huge puddle of goo.
Katherine, she has been such a joy to watch this season. I used to love love love mark, but past seasons I feel he over shines his partners in the dance. I would love to see a Ballas/Hough final again. I hope she goes through to the following week along with Donald and Maria.
As for William the man is sexy. No doubt about it but being an actual audience member on the show week 5 they wanted us to root and holler for him. Carrie Ann has had her panties wet from first sight of the guy. I’m not a fan of the pimping that the producers have done on him.
I’d love to see more Menough dances only because their chemistry is out of this world.
Heidi, thanks for this post and your write up in the beggining has done two things for me. 1: It’s definitely put it in prospective on how challenging in every facet this must be on the pros and stars. 2: I want to key TPTB’s cars and now i’m being bad again.
@Zach, I will help you key TPTB’s cars – let me know when and where.
@Princess Heidi, always a fascinating numbers post. These, and @Courtney’s Power Rankings, are the highlight of my DWTS in-season reading.
When I read Maks’ blog I was also in agreement! Hello, when this show started, the practices were 3-4 hours not 10-12! It is ridiculous and that stupid dance off didn’t add anything positive. I’m not a fan of the marathons either.
Great post Heidi. I think it is Katherine tonight. I have loved watching her dance this season. She and Mark are great together but I didn’t like that Samba. My first thought was a copy of Bollywood that was just done by Maria and Derek. Then, her injury. It would be a shame for her to go out on that note.
I like William and think his biggest issue is Cheryl. She comes across as “teacher” in the dances. I don’t see any chemistry and therefore, the dance are forgetable.
My favs are Maria and Derek and have loved their journey. I think she belongs in the finale. I can’t believe their chemistry and it makes their dances intoxicating.
Love, love Donald and think he and Peta should win this season. I wish the final 3 were Katherine, Maria and Donald but don’t think it will turn out that way.
Just for the record, I love your analysis as always, Princess, but this time I think you’re completely off base for once.
I think Maria is safe as well – she’s better than everyone on the show thus far except maybe Katherine, and I think she’s completely safe because she’s gonna get a sympathy vote in addition to her regular numbers. She’s right up there as one of the best of the season and methinks she’ll make it through, if she can..
I also disagree about Donald – he hasn’t been underscored the whole season, nor has William been overscored. Both of them make dumb mistakes, and both of them are really good dancers for amateurs, but of the two of them, Donald frequently messes up near the end of his dances, and it shows worse than William’s little goofs unless it’s as blatant as the jive was. Last night was the third time he nearly slipped and fell near the end of the dance, and I think he was scored accordingly. William has charisma and drive, and although he’s not the best dancer in the world, he’s certainly way better than everyone who has already departed — YES, including Roshon, who I couldn’t stand from day one. He talked a good game, but wasn’t nearly as good as everyone gave him credit for, IMHO. Lots of Disney Kid scamming going on there, that was for sure…heh heh heh..
Ok, Ok, sorry, I’m just pulling your chain for fun, he wasn’t THAT bad, but I honestly do think he got way too much praise and if anyone was overscored a lot this season, it was him.
Seriously, look for one of the guys to be sent packing tonight. And what’s wrong with Derek? I haven’t heard about him getting hurt too…that sucks…and I hated to see him second-guessing his awesome choreography this week after the way Len played with his head with those horribly undeserved low scores last week…
i agree…with only 4 competitors/votes, i dont see katherine overcoming marias advantage, because i think donald and william are WAY safe..
so i pick katherine to leave, sucks it had to be on a off night for her…but thats how it goes sometimes
@ Joey
Did you really say that William is a better DANCER than Roshon?? Honestly? Really? lol
tis all
Word on how crazy the dance load has gotten and what it’s doing to both celebs and pros. The dark circles under Peta’s eyes were enormous. The producers just have to scale back before someone gets permanently crippled. They’ve had some near misses, but the luck is going to run out, and I don’t want to be watching when it happens.
My jaw dropped on the floor when I saw some of the moves Derek was pulling with his messed up back. Can you say mind over matter?
Unfortunately, I think Katherine will go tonight, and my heart aches for her. It’s a shame her last dance was a whacked out bellydancing salsa that ended with an injury and emotional meltdown.
Even though Roshon was gone I still say he was the better dancer and had to learn complex choreography from Chelsie. As for Maria and Derek, all I see is Derek dancing and covering her mistakes and because she’s paired with Derek, many times she been overscored. I like Katherine and Mark and I do agree sometimes he over dances his partners. I also like Donald who also have been underscored, him and Peta have giving they’re all. William he’s been overscored from the beginning and at this point it doesn’t matter who wins since it is going to be the same pros winning their third, fourth MBT (JMO).
Derek trying not to cry in rehearsal, him and Maria commenting on how they didn’t get either dance until Sunday night, 12 hour rehearsals, and how he did the ending of the AT 5 minutes before they performed it…all are signs that this show has gone too far. The level of exhaustion in all of them would be FAR less if they hadn’t been doing three dances a week for a very long time.
Seeing as Donald is my favorite and pick to win, and his position on the leader board, I am a little worried about him. But PH has reassured me to a certain degree. She’s reminded me that he’s out of the four left, he’s probably the person with the least amount of people against him. Also, Packer Nation is bigger than I think. Here’s to Donald being safe!
Also, someone mentioned this a few weeks back, but if Donald & Peta do make it to the Finals, I do see them saying “Can the New comer get her first trophy? Or will the past winners reign victorious again?” Something to that degree. I’m not saying it is guaranteed, but I won’t be surprised if it happens.
All the pros should get together at the end of the season and refuse to come back if something isn’t done. Yes, there are people from the troupe just dying to take their places, but it won’t be the same without the pros, and the ratings would plummet.
Having said that, I am afraid it is Katherine’s turn to go, and I’m not sure how I feel about that. Of the four of them, I’d really like to see William go, but since that’s not going to happen, ten I guess my second choice would have to be Katherine. Sigh.
It’s pretty annoying that people say someone is “overscored because they’re with Derek” because that shows a level of willful ignorance of the scores of the previous week. Remember that 7?? And the 8 for a dance that was pretty damn good? Yeah, that Derek – favorite son. I think someone needs to take a closer look at Cheryl, if they insist on making that accusation.
I hate to say that it will probably be Kathering leaving. If William had been paired with anyone but Cheryl (who seems to think being sexy is dancing) maybe his dancing would actually be as good as the judges think.
I agree Miss Heidi. Derek and Maria have taken their turns being underscored this season and more than once. Same with Donald and Peta.
I hope I’m wrong, but I just have this feeling that tonight we’ll see the end for Team Menough. I think Katherine’s injury will pull in votes. Even though Maria has danced thru far worse & not broken down, somehow, I can see ppl feeling sorry for Kath. Gotta really hand it to Maria & Derek, whatever happens–no pimping of them by ABC a la William & Katherine–numerous injuries–yet there they were giving their all week after week after weel. Would love to see Maria’s growth rewarded w/a spot in the Finals–she & Derek have worked so hard to get there! If not, though, I’ll always be proud of both of them.
If Katherine is safe, I wonder if they will call her safe first. I think if Maria is safe, they should call her safe early. But if not, I will worry for Maria. I still think Katherine may have gotten enough sympathy votes. Never know. My faves are Donald and Maria. Less worried for Donald.
Was Maria Menounos doing any dancing? All the big tricks, Derek was the one doing them. She couldn’t keep her leg straight in that tango. I am by no means an expert, but thought that the leg extension (without bending) looks more dramatic and powerful. Maria was definitely overscored. Donald I believe to have been underscored.
I agree Joanna. Or rather similar worry. I think Maria has danced through so much worse. I think people forget the stress Derek feels choreographing around two broken feet! He really has outdone himself!
Another fine post,PH, and I agree with all those railing at producers for inhumane demands on celebs and pros. Can’t see how it will help TPTB much longer in their quest for high ratings. If down the road we don’t see that crippling injury(!), I am guessing other loyal viewers are as disturbed as many of us are at what we’ve seen already. People don’t watch DWTS for blood sport.
Another thing, how much less attractive is the prospect of signing on to DWTS for celebs in the future, now that it’s become so unnecessarily grueling and dangerous? Maybe we’re approaching the time when only young fit males who engage in extreme sports will want to sign on?
I just had to check dial idol to see what their numbers were showing. Donald & Peta way ahead with, in order, Maria, William, and then Katherine all within the margin of error. It seems like the judges scores and that unfortunate stumble will determine Katherine’s fate tonight. No matter how you slice it this MBT will be Donald’s.
Totally agree Chepe, that Jive was the most pathetic thing ever on DWTS & the fact that Derek & Maria got away with not one kick or flick & doing a dance no where near a Jive shows how ridiculous the judges have been in scoring Maria.
Giving her 10′s for that NON Jive was one of the most outrageous things ever on this show & totally threw the 10′s the gave for Katherine’s brilliant jive out the window.
So unfair to all the other contestants, seems almost like ABC has some huge stake in keeping Mr Hough to the Finals each season, its a joke…
DialIdol is not even worth looking at, they are barely ever accurate, some weeks the bottom 2 are not even the bottom 2.
Isn’t Dial Idol illegal on this website?
Reading this post, the takeaway is that the producers are jerkwads. Yeah! Can’t remember the last time I saw that word in print, but, boy it is appropriate. The show is eating itself. Certainly takes a lot of the fun out of it.
Sorry, didnt know it was illegal.
I hope Maria is going. But my guess is Katherine going. I think there’s a reason for overscoring Maria. I’m not sure about it yet, but I don’t think it’s about Derek. I never thought the judges overscoring Derek, I think they’re overscoring Maria. I think it was all set up from the beginning. I think she’d be overscored if she was paired with Val, too. But I just can’t see the reason. Perhaps we’ll learn about it soon.
LOL Jay, I loved Heidi’s description of the producers too. She makes me laugh!!
Gib, dial idol isn’t illegal on this website. You can talk about it. Though we don’t give it much credibility here.
I am keeping my fingers crossed for Katherine. I have enjoyed her performances much more than anyone else this season. She has been consistently impressive. I felt so badly for her last night when she got hurt.
The judges were worse then usual last night. Both Carrie Ann and Bruno were practically drooling over William. Their behavior has caused me to have a negative view of him when he really has not done anything wrong.
I want Maria to go to the finals because her freestyle sounds like it be good!
Well, I wish both Katherine and Maria could stay at the expense of William, but I don’t see it happening. Hope I’m wrong.
blah blah blah…Derek is evil….blah blah blah. Lisa, can you post on ANY other subject?? Can you post anything positive, contribute anything new to any conversation?? One of these days I’m going to have enough of the relentless song and dance to the same tune and I’m just going to ban you for trolling.
Not illegal Tony, we just heap scorn on anyone who takes it seriously.
Ditto, Heidi in post 34. :/
post #35. Could you please, Princess?
+1 to #35.
+2 to #35!
“She may be a technically better dancer than those left, but she is also the dancer who connects to her partner, the dance and the audience the least out of those left.”
I don’t disagree with this, yet ironically, she also delivered the dance that most reasonated with me (and I know several others) this season. Of course, that was weeks ago and, while I think she and her dancing have ingratiated with the general audience, she’s up against the numbers tonight. Shame as, based on dance quality, she is probably the single most deserving of making the finals.
OMG!!
+1 on that Sandy!
If Donald goes im DONE with this show. Not friggin joke.
I don’t think you need to worry, Zach!
I hope not Miss Meggie.
Sayanara!! Maria!
Adios Maria! Donald and Katherine are safe, *sigh of relief*.
I am so proud of Maria and Derek and will miss them so much on the show. The way she danced with all those injuries was just amazing. I won’t be watching the final because I find 2 of the 3 couples left quite boring to watch, but I do hope that Donald can raise the MBT overhead on the final night!
I am THRILLED with this outcome. Sorry, but I couldn’t stand the breakage of rules by not choreographing anywhere near a proper samba or jive for Maria. Glad the gimmicks failed. Very happy with the 3 that made it to the finale. They all deserve it and I like them all.
And a big shout out to Voguerista who has been fair and equal to all the contestants through out the season.
My predictions- Winner- Donald Runner Up- William 3rd Place- Katherine
Watch your step, people. Especially, you Andrea.
WIlliam got saved by TPTB, no surprise, but it makes me want to throw something, because I think his “dancing” is pitiful. But I never thought Maria would get the boot, especially after Katherine’s mistake, and after Maria’s high scores yesterday. So, it makes think again that we are all manipulated by TPTB and that they just give the MBT to whoever they want. I also am starting to think that no one is actually tabulating viewer votes and that “voting” is all a scam to keep us hooked into the show. Sorry if I sound cranky, but geez, William being in the finals is such a travesty, imo.
It’s been mentioned more than once that the votes are overseen by that regulatory commission on game shows – because in the end, DWTS is considered a game show. So… the audience voting is the ONE thing that’s on the up and up, I think.
Princess…I humbly admit defeat to your numbers, however confusing they are…I was sure Maria would be safe…I’m sorry to see her go..but at least I was right in calling Katherine safe…and I will be rooting for her next week…:-)
Joey, it takes an especially twisted brain to understand the numbers – you’re safe.
DW, why do you think TPTB “saved” William…he’s the “biggest thing in Latin America”, he’s their Brad Pitt.
People are voting for him.
The judges scores…that’s a different story!
I am still SMH that Willy has gotten 10s from Len and Donald hasn’t.
Andrea, Amanda, CBG,… I agree with Miss Heidi, please there is no need to rub it in. A lot of us here loved Derek and Maria.
What was up w/CheryI’s Derek bashing??? am not a William fan, but after seeing his “pro” be the only one who commented on a fellow pro and not really about Maria — and in such a cold, snarky way — while all of the real pros said great things about the celebs…I’m voting against William to help Donald win. (I do like Donald, but was .) Good form, Derek, Mark & Peta — BAD form, Cheryl.
[...] Heidi: I said it would be Maria and Katherine, with Katherine leaving. Second choice, obviously, was Maria leaving. [...]
Hi Princess Heidi,
I really enjoy reading your analysis and predictions.Its sad when we vote against the the instructor and not the celebrity, these people don’t have dance experience (most of the time) and really work hard. I think all four teams were the best on this season ( one of the best IMHO) so it was a draw. Based solely on Mondays performance I feel Katherine should have left.
So now its up to their free style dance ! I hope Donald finally gets his straight 10″s , I am a William fan but also love Donald and think he has been underscored. I’m good if any of these two guys wins.
William is a very big star in Latin America ( I wouldn’t say Brad Pitt) but I was a bit skeptic when I heard he would be on DWTS . But hey.. he has been able to dance. I usually only watch his footwork and not his face when he dances because I really want him to do well, and later rewind and watch the dance calmly.
So good luck to all three couples and may the votes decide!
how do I unsub?
I was so tired of Derek’s inability to showcase Maria due to her lack of dance ability! He definitely showcased himself throughout the season! He has always done that, but more so with Maria. I know she lacked serious ability.
I was happy Donald won as he came into this with no experience, worked hard every week and had wonderful Peta to encourage and promote his talents. Wish her and Maks the best and hope they continue to stay a couple. She is definitely a huge step up from Karina, who I still can’t stand season after season!