DWTS Season 14 Stats Class – Week 10: The Finals!
Here we go, the last week of the season. Week 10. The following are the dances that the couples are slated to do over the course of Monday/Tuesday:
– Judges Choice: the judges get choose a dance that they would like to the couples to conquer again and the couples will perform it to new music and new choreography
– Freestyle: The anything goes dance… do I really need to describe this to you guys?
– 24-hour Challenge: The couples are allowed to pick a dance but are not given the music until 24-hours before Tuesday night’s show (something similar to the dance off where couples are working on routines/dances the night before Tuesday night’s show)
One thing I want to gripe about is why not have the couple do a dance that they have yet to do? For example Donald has set to do the Salsa, while William is missing a Waltz and Katherine the Tango… I think it would be fairer to give them all new dances… but that’s just me. Ah well. In any case:
DISCLAIMER: At the time of this writing, according to Wikipedia Katherine and Mark are doing the Rumba for their “judges choice” dance, so if there are any changes I may not be able to get to them prior to the show time… and I apologize.
UPDATE: I have updated the Predicted Scores with Katherine’s dance the Paso Doble
WILLIAM LEVY
Dance 1: Cha-Cha
Average Scores:
– Age: 27.190
– Occupation: 24.500
– Professional Partner: 27.000
Predicted Score: 26
Dance 2: Freestyle
Average Scores:
– Age: 28.059
– Occupation: 28.000
– Professional Partner: 28.600
Predicted Score: 28
Predicted Rank: 3rd
Comments: Getting a dance that he did earlier in the season bodes well for William, since he did a Cha-Cha in Week 1 there is a very good chance that he could show off just how much he has improved since then. The other two actors in their 30s that did the Cha-Cha this late in the season:
– Season 3’s Mario Lopez got a 29
– Season 13’s David Arquette got a 24
Personally William is a stronger dancer than David, but not the same caliber as Mario… so getting a 29 would be difficult for me to fathom unless he knocks it out of the park. As for the freestyle:
– Season 3’s Mario Lopez received a 30
– Season 8’s Gilles Marini received a 28
Ironically, both ended up being runners up in their respective seasons… William could end up being a runner up in the current season, but it is hard to tell at this juncture.
KATHERINE JENKINS
Dance 1: Rumba Paso Doble
Average Scores:
– Age: 26.909 27.667
– Occupation: 26.000 28.333
– Professional Partner: 30.000 27.500
Predicted Score: 28
Dance 2: Freestyle
Average Scores:
– Age: 28.059
– Occupation: 27.000
– Professional Partner: 28.750
Predicted Score: 28
Predicted Rank: 2nd
Comments: This is very good for Katherine since the Paso Doble was her lowest scoring dance of the season with a 21 on Week 4 which was Rock Night. This would allow Katherine lots of room for improvement and a chance to redeem herself. When comparing with those that have done the Paso Doble this late in the season:
– Season 8’s Lil Kim received a 28
– Season 9’s Mya received a 30
– Season 11’s Brandy received a 27
It would seem that Katherine is in pretty good company and on the path to do rather well in this go around. In regards to the freestyle, on the other hand, only Season 9’s Mya made it to the finals and got a 27 on her freestyle. Katherine is a very strong technical dancer and has been growing into her own personality-wise, so I’m hoping it would carry her through to at least the top two.
DONALD DRIVER
Dance 1: Argentine Tango
Average Scores:
– Age: 28.667
– Occupation: 30.000
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score: 29
Dance 2: Freestyle
Average Scores:
– Age: 28.059
– Occupation: 28.200
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score: 28
Predicted Rank: 1st
Comments: Being given a dance that he did on Week 5 for “Latin Week” can be a good or not so good thing depending on how you look at it. It’s good because this is a dance that Donald did in the first half of the season, it’s not so good because Donald received a 27 in the first go around and there leaves really little for improvement. But then let’s also look at how it compares with the past celebrities in his “group: On one hand the only other NFL player in his 30s to have done the Argentine Tango this late in the season was Season 12’s Hines Ward and he got a 30. But on the other hand there have been four NFL players in their 30s that have done the freestyle:
– Season 3’s Emmitt Smith: 29
– Season 6’s Jason Taylor: 27
– Season 7’s Warren Sapp: 28
– Season 12’s Hines Ward: 30
Of the above four NFL players, two have won the mirrorball trophy (Emmitt Smith and Hines Ward) while the other two were runners up in their respective seasons. I will go on a limb and say that it is very likely for Donald to make it to the Final Two, and I would personally prefer him to come out on top… but that’s because the numbers tell me so. 🙂
So there you have it. My last post of attempting to predict the scores, and as we have both seen it has been a heck of a crapshoot… at least for this season. It has been wondered how this season would compare to previous seasons in terms of scoring… so that is going to be something I will dive into during the off-season, so stay tuned!
You mean Paso, Marianya?
Pretty sure Marianya wrote this a few days ago before we knew what Katherine was dancing. My bad I didn’t check to see if she updated before it went live.
Here is a poem I wrote at the beginning of this season. Do nit know why I did not share this before.
In honor of the upcoming 14th Season of Dancing With The Stars, Written By Lois A Troutman. This is my very favorite show in the whole world! Seriously! In a tie with American Idol.
DANCING WITH THE STARS
Kym, Karina, Chelsea, Cheryl, Peta, and Anna
The gals have what it takes to be top banana
Max, Val, Tristan, Mark, Derek and Tony
The guys give the gals a run for their money
Gavin, Jaleel, Roshon, William, Donald and Jack
These guys will need to be sharp as a tack
Katherine, Maria, Gladys, Melissa, Martina, and Sherri
These gals will need to be on top like a red cherry
Who will fox trot, rumba, tango, and cha cha,
Pasa doble, and quick step to the final hurrah
On March 19th, the sparkling spectacle of a show
Will return to the ballroom, the Mirror Ball all aglow
From the sizzling debut to the finale our eyes
Are always seeing a delightful, delicious surprise
Bring on the magic, sequins, glamour, the praise
The Mirror Ball Trophy, the winners will proudly raise!
Written on March 4, 2012
My Prediction Scores:
Katherine & Mark — Paso Doble — 9 9 9 — 27 — the paso doble and Katherine don’t mix well. Paso is agressive & attack. And Katherine is sweet and happy. Don’t predict any 10s for this dance.
William & Cheryl — Cha-Cha-Cha — 9 9 10 — 28 — Bruno will go crazy for this one. Just saying.
Donald & Peta — Argentine Tango — 10 9 10 — Good feeling about this one for Donald. But won’t get a 10 from Len quite yet.
———————
Katherine & Mark — Freestyle — 9 9 10 — 28 — Mark’s creativity for the Freestyle is amazing. High hopes for this one. Might throw in a few 10s.
William & Cheryl — Freestyle — 9 9 9 — 27 — I think it will be good – but not great. Cheryl’s freestyles isn’t the same as they use to be.
Donald & Peta — Freestyle — 10 10 10 — 30 — Peta + The Freestyle should be amazing! Very good hopes for this one!!!!
Donald & Peta — 59/60
Katherine & Mark — 55/60
William & Cheryl — 55/60
My hopes for winning the Mirror-Ball Trophy is Katherine – The best dancer left in the competition. Or Donald – Most Improved.
I hope William doesn’t because it will be based off the looks and not the dance. Just sayin.
I wish they’ll bring back the redemption dances:
Katherine & Mark – I would have chosen the Paso Doble too.
William & Cheryl — The Jive. But I know they judges don’t want him to do that because they want him to win.
Donald & Peta — The Quickstep – Just see if he could bring out some more Hines Ward and Emmitt Smith!
Oh Marianya! I hope it goes down in placement just like what your numbers predict. So excited.
Adam, as usual, I love your predictions too.
Lois, good job! LOL to the top banana.
Ok Adam, I’ll give the predictions a go again like you:
Katherine & Mark — Paso Doble — 9 9 9 (I think she’ll pretty much dance it like that last time with maybe a little improvement, but, not enough to get a 10)
William & Cheryl — Cha-Cha-Cha — 10 9 10 (He’s going to give it all he’s got and it will show)
Donald & Peta — Argentine Tango — 10 10 10 (I gave it 1o’s the first time. I can’t wait to see it again)
———————
Katherine & Mark — Freestyle — 10 9 9 (Mark’s freestyles usually drives me nuts. Because of Katherine, I’ve consistantly dug Mark this season for the first time even though I don’t think Katherine has danced to her potential for 4 weeks. Will this week be diffrent? I’m on the fence.)
William & Cheryl — Freestyle — 10 10 10 (I think it’s going to be amazing.)
Donald & Peta — Freestyle — 10 10 10 (I think these two are going to do a freestyle that’s jaw dropping.)
Totals:
Katherine & Mark — 55/60
William & Cheryl — 59/60
Donald & Peta — 60/60
FYI to all!
I’ve updated the post to reflect Katherine’s dance: the Paso Doble.
Really? It took Len THIS long to realize that William doing nothing but shaking his butt and screaming at woman was getting old? -_- If he’ll just friggin give Donald a 10 though he’ll be forgiven since atleast i’m happy one of the judges said what we have all been thinking.
Yeah, Zach – I cheered when Len agreed with me. Cheryl’s freestyle is more proof she needs a few seasons off. That sucked.
When Len said that I yelled “finally” at the top of my lungs – scared my pets.
LOVED Donald’s freestyle as did Maks he tweeted this: “NOW THAT’S A FREESTYLE!!! @Donald_Driver80 @PetaMurgatroyd JUST DESTROYED THE DANCE FLOOR!!! VOTE 1800-868-3403”
Maks nailed it. Donald set that floor on fire. Katherine was good, but some of the lifts were awkward. I was laughing so hard during Williams because I was reading twitter what people were saying before he danced and then it was coming true. “bump and grinding” and Shirt ripping. Predictable INDEED. Lazy, Cheryl…very, very lazy.
Hallelujah for Donald and Peta!! Finally a killer freestyle. YAY!!
I agree Heidi, Willy and Cheryl’s freestyle sucked and the best thing about Marks freestyle was Katherine’s singing.
Did anyone else notice Carrie Anne on top of the table dancing during Donald’s freestyle?
William’s freestyle was badd like really really really bad.
WoW! Donald’s freestyle was something else! So happy to agree with Maks (for a change!). lol This may be a turning point in our relationship! 😉
Donald and Peta for the win!!!!
LOVED THE DONALD.
Were there a couple of moments where Katherine was a bit off on the freestyle? Three times I went – Oop. that was too bad.
but Donald!
and Len with William- I was screaming at the tv – WHY didn’t you say that 5 weeks ago!!!
but… Yeah Donald! That lift where Peta ended in the splits? awesome. 🙂
Anyone else having trouble voting on your land line? I can’t get through (fast busy signal) but had no problem voting on my cell.
I can’t believe Cheryl could not come up with something better that that.
I could not get past Katherine’s freestyle shoes, ugly.
Donald and Peta’s freestyle was the best.
I say it’s time for TPTB to ship Miss Cheryl to Vegas.
Noooooo!!!! No Vegas for Cheryl!!! All the dancers in the Vegas show seem to actually work hard – and Cheryl has made it clear that she’s become lazy, choreographically. Plus Lacey is the Queen Bee of the Vegas show…and I don’t see Cheryl accepting that easily. Hell, I’m not even sure Cheryl would do Vegas, given the choice – I get the feeling she would consider it “below” her. I say let her sit out and do nothing DWTS-related for an entire season, and see if that recharges her batteries.
Please don’t send her to vegas! make her sit two seasons out in favor of anther female pro (any female from the troupe will do) or even ashley costa. just kinda make her see what the show should eb like without pros gunning for a trophy at all costs at the expense of their partner.