DWTS Season 14, The Finale – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, as it stands right now and based on scores alone, it’s anyone’s game. Such a small margin going into tomorrow night. But really, Donald’s freestyle?? Would have won the competition any other season.  Any other season that didn’t have the ridiculous pimping and fawning over another contestant who is totally unworthy of the praise.

Please, Cheryl – take a break. You did William NO favors with that totally predictable freestyle. Donald wasn’t the only one who totally called it. My twitter feed predicted the whole dance before it aired…to the point that I died laughing at the shirt ripping and the faux standing intercourse on the floor.  Lord, Len picks a great time to agree with me. I would have given it an 8, though. He was too generous.  If William wins this he will be the most undeserving winner in history.

Katherine did a great job on both dances, with the exception of some awkwardness on the lifts during the freestyle and a tiny bit of softness in the legs during the Paso. I don’t think either dance was worth a 30, but, like Courtney said, the judges really hosed her on the dance selection. They gave all their favors to William…how many cha cha’s has he learned now?? Three or four? And even then, Cheryl’s choreo didn’t stand up to Peta’s and Mark’s. Me thinks someone is relying on the sex factor and over scoring to carry her through.  Interestingly, I saw Katherine on E! News and they asked her about taking clothes off and she said, “We’re not about taking off clothes. It’s about the dancing for us.”  Now, those of you who have been reading this blog for a long time know that I would normally skewer someone for that sort of commentary for its subtle diss of another contestant.  Not this season. Not when even Len is calling a freestyle “predictable”. The truth hurts, kids, and Katherine and Donald ARE about the dancing. William and Cheryl?? Not so much.  They’ve gone to the same well too many times, and if there is any justice they won’t go home with the trophy.

Anyway…

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Place Celebrity Score Percentage
1. Katherine 60 33.71
2. William 59 33.15
3. Donald 59 33.15

 

So, as you can see, there is only a tiny margin going into Tuesday’s final dance.  Of course, this dance is also scored and has the ability to change the game entirely. My question is – just how invested are the judges in William?? Do they want him to win badly enough to seriously skew it AFTER everyone has voted?? On CAI and Bruno’s part, I would say yes. So I’m putting all my faith in Len. :-)

In order for either William or Donald to overtake Katherine and win, at this point, either or both of them need to get 5,620 more votes per million votes cast. That’s a very small number.  Discounting the final dance for a minute, if both men beat that spread, then Katherine comes in third.  Then it becomes a race between the two men and whoever gets the most votes win. Period.

Except not period. :-)  The judges have one more shot at screwing it up.  So, let’s play a game of “what if?”  There are a couple different ways it could go tomorrow.  Option 1 – the judges cop out and give everyone a 30.  If they do that, then the margin between Katherine and the two men decreases to 3,735 votes per million votes cast. A virtual tie.

Option 2 is one of the two men chokes and gets…let’s say a 28. Since I think that man is more likely to be Donald (based on history), that’s what we’ll go with. If it happens to William, just substitute his name here.  So, if Donald gets a 28 and William and Katherine get 30s??  For Donald to WIN, he would need both of the following:

–          Donald would need 7,520 more votes per million votes cast than William, AND;

–          Donald would need 11,280 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine.

After his freestyle, I think Donald can do it. I just hope he doesn’t have to.  If the positions are reversed, I think William can likely do it as well.

Option 3 is the one where the judges just totally level the playing field. That is, the two men both get 30 and Katherine gets a 29. Of course, if that happens it’s a tie ball game and the high vote getter wins. It certainly should be Donald in first place, Katherine in second place with William taking third. Whether that happens or not I have no good idea.

Of course, there is one last, thoroughly repulsive option.  That is the option where Donald and Katherine are both given something less than 30 while William gets a 30. If that number is a 29, then Katherine and Willy are tied and Donald needs 3,760 to catch them. Of course, that is chump change and Donald should be able to do it based on his freestyle.  But if they get 28s?? If that happens, then in judges scores William is in first place, Katherine in second and Donald in third.  For Donald to win, he would need both of the following:

–          Donald needs 3,790 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, AND;

–          Donald needs 7,580 more votes per million votes cast than William.

Should be easy enough.  For Katherine to win in that scenario she needs BOTH of the following:

–          Katherine needs Donald to not cover the spread, AND;

–          Katherine needs 3,790 more votes per million votes cast than William.

I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see either of those things happening.  In that scenario, for William to win he simply needs for neither Donald nor Katherine to cover the spread.

So, after looking at all the various scenarios, nothing has changed my mind. I think it comes down to William and Donald. Which of the two men wins depends heavily on the final dance. Unless Donald really blows it and gets underscored relative to William (again) I think Donald wins.

I’m going to say:

Donald – Winner
William – Second Place
Katherine – Third Place.

I would love it if Willy got knocked to third place. I also wouldn’t mind at all if Katherine were to win – but I don’t think so.