Dancing with the Stars Season 15: Predicted Eliminations w/ Professional Partners
Thanks to yesterday’s live blog post by Heidi of the announcements of the partnerships on Dancing with the Stars Season 15, I can now provide the predicted eliminations with the professional partners as opposed to previously where the partnerships were not announced.
If you have forgotten, in a previous post I have ranked the announced celebrities in accordance to their normalized averages via their ages at the time of their original season and their occupations and how they would have fared if we were able to clone their professional partner if one professional dancer had multiple celebrities.
And then I had another table that updated their ages to Season 15 and kept their occupations for which they are known for but at that time without the professional partner. So in the below table is a comparison of how each of the celebrities had fared without knowing whom their professional partners are and after the announcement from Monday:
| CELEBRITY | OCCUPATION | AGE | RANK w/o PRO | S15 PRO PARTNER | RANK w/ PRO |
| Shawn Johnson | Olympian | 20s | 1st | Derek Hough | 1st |
| Apolo Anton Ohno | Olympian | 30s | 2nd | Karina Smirnoff | 2nd |
| Emmitt Smith | NFL | 40s | 5th | Cheryl Burke | 3rd |
| Joey Fatone | Band Member | 30s | 4th | Kym Johnson | 4th |
| Gilles Marini | Actor | 30s | 6th | Peta Murgatroyd | 5th |
| Drew Lachey | Band Member | 30s | 3rd | Anna Trebunskaya | 6th |
| Bristol Palin | Other | 20s | 11th | Mark Ballas | 7th |
| Kelly Monaco | Soap Opera Star | 30s | 7th | Val Chmerkovskiy | 8th |
| Pamela Anderson | Actress | 40s | 12th | Tristan MacManus | 9th |
| Hélio Castroneves | Athlete | 30s | 8th | Chelsie Hightower | 10th |
| Kirstie Alley | Actress | 60s | 10th | Maks Chmerkovskiy | 11th |
| Melissa Rycroft | Reality TV Star | 20s | 9th | Tony Dovolani | 12th |
In generalizations it would appear that the professional partner does not change how the celebrity would do on the show, however when you really compare the two different rankings there are some significant jumps.
For example Emmitt Smith jumping from 5th place without Cheryl Burke to 3rd when paired with her. Drew Lachey was originally slated for 3rd place before we found out his professional partner who (as we found out) turned out to be Anna Trebunskaya and it dropped him to 6th place.
Bristol Palin’s ranking jumped from 11th without her professional partner, Mark Ballas, who moved her up to 7th place. A similar jump up in placement happened for Pamela Anderson when she is paired with Tristan MacManus.
This is what the numbers show me… and hopefully over the coming weeks the numbers would reveal if in previous seasons there was warped scoring for the celebrities or not…
Awww…I hope Melissa isn’t out first! :/
Kelly and Pamela are too high
Bristol and Kirstie are too low
Disagree about Helio. Maybe top 3 is right. But he’ll be top 5 for sure.
I like Drew and love Anna but I’m guessing they are going to be the shocking elimination. on week one or 2.
It will all depend on the twists the producers will trow this season.
But I’m pretty sure Shawn is gonna get TMBT. Hope see more creativity from Derek with her. I like them together.
I think kirstie will last much longer and kelly will be out very fast.
Not sure how some will play out but I think some of Donald’s fans may get behind Peta and vote against Cowboy-contingent(Emmit) and that might bring Giles up 1 or 2 places….and I remember Joey was good(and he is much better aft Vegas) and people just loved him, I think he’ll make top 3. Also think Kirstie is too low and if the judges do their job, even halfway, Bristol is prob too high.
These numbers are interesting. I think some are right, and some are slightly wrong. My prediction for the season:
12th: Kelly and Val
11th: Bristol and Mark
10th: Helio and Chelsie
9th: Melissa and Tony (I hope they make it this far)
8th: Pam and Tristan
7th: Joey and Kym
6th: Drew and Anna
5th: Emmitt and Cheryl
4th: Kirstie and Maks
3rd: Gilles and Peta
2nd: Shawn and Derek
1st: Apolo and Karina
I really hope though, that there are some twists and turns in there to keep us guessing. This is why it ticks me off so badly that TPTB kept some pairs together and didn’t make all new pairs. I feel like I can pretty much see how the season would shape up. Now, if they had put a powerhouse celeb (Shawn, Kristie) with a less popular pro (Val, Tony) and a less popular celeb (Melissa, Kelly) with a powerhouse pro (Derek, Tristan) it would have been much more interesting, IMO, b/c then I wouldn’t have had any idea how it would all play out. They sucked the fun and real competition right out of the season, if you asked me.
Interesting post, here are my predictions:
2th: Bristol and Mark
11th: Melissa and Tony
10th: Pam and Tristan
9th: Kelly and Val
8th: Helio and Cheslie
7th: Drew and Anna
6th: Emmitt and Cheryl
5th: Kirstie and Maks
4th: Joey and Kym
3rd: Gilles and Peta
2nd: Apolo and Karina
1st: Shawn and Derek
Too early to predict but the placement is about right. I’d rank Emmitt ahead of Apolo Ohno. Derek, I think, will do magic with Shawn (this is actually a better pairing than her previous with Mark). Love Apolo but Karina’s dancing style would match Gilles better than Apolo’s. The latter’s moves complemented the young Julianne’s but his style would clash sophisticated Karina’s. I think, he will suit the other young blond Chelsie better.
If Derek can transform an awkward lil Kim into a sexy dancer, he can make Shawn a passionate dancer. She’s 20 now and that should make a tremendous difference in how she’ll emote and dance with a passionate dancer-teacher Derek. Derek with Shawn – 1st, and Emmitt with Cheryl 2nd (Emmitt’s rapport and comfort level with Cheryl and hunger for a win at his age will add more color and depth to their dancing). Well, it’s a toss up between these two.
Just read a tweet–Donald Driver lining up Packernation behind Peta so I think Giles will benefit there. Also, always thought Apolo and Shawn would be about even with vote-splitting…but I think if Shawn brings her “media-personality(not as quiet/emotionless)with just coming off summer Olympics(gymnastics)and just her better technical skill, her partner, now I think, she MIGHT have an edge. But I think the top 4 or 5 could be very tight. And I think, if any of the top 5 or so make any mistakes, bad choices with presentation or come off badly in some of the vid footage-it will be much worse for them than a normal season cause I think the voting will be close because it’s split so many ways.
Love this, Marianya! Thanks for all your hard work! Really interesting stuff! Hope it’s right!
That ranking has Kirstie way too low and Bristol way too high.
I think the first to leave (in order) will be:
Melissa
Pam
Bristol
Kelly
I’d like to think Derek and Shawn will take the MBT! I see her in the finals with Apolo and Gilles. I don’t think Kirstie has a chance this season of making the finals. The competitions is too strong this go round.
Perfectly plausible list, with the only exception being at the very top : I can’t see Shawn Johnson winning again. She didn’t dominate her season, and her winning was something of a fluke. The better two dancers from the get-go were clearly Gilles Marini & Melissa Rycroft. Johnson did improve and Mark Ballas did some awesome choreography for the final, enabling Johnson to come out of nowhere to snatch the Mirror Ball at the end. But during the entire season, she was an above average dancer, nothing more.
The X-factor is always the fan bases of the pro and his/her celebrity. Some of the female celebs especially will have the same demographic fan base and splitting that fan base may cause certain female celebs to leave earlier than one would anticipate based on dancing skills. And by the same token, certain other celebs will have separate fan bases (so no split voting) that will keep them in longer than one would anticipate. That’s one of the reasons I think the producers have done a better job with the pairings than many people here are giving them credit for. I think who stays/who leaves each week is going to be a surprise to many.
Judges scores will matter more than in any other season IMO.
Pam and Kelly will be the first 2 eliminated ( in no particular order)
Apolo and Joey – top 2 male celebs
Shawn and Melissa – top 2 female celebs
Eh, don’t see Tristan as the powerhouse just yet. I do think he’s miles ahead of Val and Tony, but a ways behind Derek and Maks. I’m sure his partner will get a boost – more than she did with Damian, for sure – but this season is going to be crazy. I don’t see Pam lasting that long.
I also think that while Packer Nation might help Peta in the early going, it won’t be a huge difference in the long run. I just don’t think that people vote passionately for someone they’re told to vote for as they do for the person that they are actually a fan of. I know I don’t take ANY direction from Derek when it comes to voting once he’s been eliminated. I think most people are the same way – unless they are very young. And the guy doing the talking is named Bieber.
@ Couch Potato Cop
Shawn was underestimated because she was 17 y/o. Gilles and Melissa were good but Shawn was just as good. In the finals,after her fantastic freestyle, the Judges finally gave her the credit she deserved.
I should add, I was responding to someone else, not commenting on what Marianya wrote, re Tristan. I think she’s got Pam a bit on the high side. Melissa is a bit low. I tend to think that Kelly will be the first one out. But who knows? We’ve never had a season like this.
I think this is going to be the closest top 3 ever, one screw up and your OUT.
I think it will come down to the 2 Olympians… Just not sure which one will win.
I don’t think Donald asking people to vote for Peta is going to make one iota of difference. If his/Packers fans don’t watch the show and tuned in last season just for him, I doubt many of them are going to continue watching, or take the time to vote. And those that already watch the show likely have their own history and their own favorites that they’ll choose to support.
I personally have never voted for anyone just because a former celeb or pro told me to LOL.
I know he’s not as high up as Derek and Maks, and maybe Mark. I was really using it as an example in contrast to Val and Tony, who the two ladies who would likely need a boost from their pro’s fans, Kelly and Melissa, have.
I shouldn’t have to remind some of you about this, but tacking on an “I think” or an “In my opinion” sure does go a long way in making you not look like an arrogant, bossy jerk.
Thanks for running these numbers, Marianya. I should point out that some of Marianya’s numbers (however strange they may seem) have actually been oddly accurate in the great scheme of things – she was the only one of us that predicted Kyle to make it all the way to the finale in season 11.
I actually think Emmitt is a bit high – looking back at some of the dances on his original season, I was pretty underwhelmed…and that was 6 years ago. He’s older now, and up against some pretty staunch competition. I don’t see him beating out Joey or Gilles (or possibly even Drew, who seems to be throwing himself into this competition 110% with Anna) to make it to the finale. And speaking of Drew – he & Anna are the big question mark for me this season. On paper, I would say they probably won’t make it past the halfway point of the season – but man, these two seem to be bound & determined to do well. They’re already tweeting up a storm, have an official Facebook page, have picked a team name, and are gushing about how excited they are. I think they may surprise quite a few people, if they can carry that enthusiasm and determination onto the dance floor.
Yes, Courtney, and statements of fact where there are no actual facts to be found bother the crap out of me, too. If people ever wonder why someone responds to them in a particular way, maybe they should look for a few key words in their sentences.
Anna & Drew can carry enthusiasm and determination onto the dance floor, but how far will it carry them in the competition? Does either of them have much of a fan base? In a season with so many strong dancers, won’t fan bases play a bigger role than ever? I’d actually peg them as among the first to go, along with Val and Kelly for the same, limited fan base reason.
Well, justme, Drew did win his season – and he was up against an NFL player, who always seem to be touted as having “huge fanbase”, so I daresay he must have at least SOME people voting for him. You also have to take into account that 98 Degrees is actually in the midst of a big comeback – and if the reaction I saw to NKOTBSB was any indicator, boy bands have a strange way of retaining their fanbase from way back in the day. He also seemed to have gained a few fans during his short stint as a substitute host on DWTS – if I had a dime for every time I heard someone say “I wish they would have brought Drew back instead of Brooke!!!”, I’d be rich. I don’t see he & Anna winning, but I do think they could go further than some might think.
And if we really want to talk limited fanbases, I would say Melissa & Tony could be in big trouble – her Bachelor stint was awhile back, and if previous seasons are any indicator, Tony is certainly not immune to the dreaded early elim. Ditto for Pam – she struggled with getting the votes on her original season. I could see the same thing happening this time around. Say what you will about being skeptical about Drew sticking around – but I daresay he’s sitting prettier than some of the ladies this season. And it certainly won’t hurt if he can dance, too.
Another factor working in Drew & Anna’s favor: exposure. I think they’re actually being really smart, getting themselves out there and in the public eye so early on when some other couples haven’t even met up yet. Tweet early, tweet often.
The point is, that everything that Anna and Drew are doing only HELP them, not hurt them. Everyone can discuss when they will leave or won’t leave, but the point is they are making a concerted effort and up against Shawn, Gilles, Emmett and the rest, EVERY little bit helps.
Ok….can I just say I love this site? I apologize if this seems to be an inappropriate place to leave this comment. You have NO idea how entertaining it’s been to visit here during the sllllooooooooow workday and read through the awesome stat posts and comments regarding the new season.
::sigh::
Anyway I wonder if this season we’ll be surprised. I guess I mean this in the sense that there was a belief of who people “thought” would be front-runners AKA Jaleel White, before the season even started. Obviously this is harder to pin down this time around as we’ve seen these contestants before. But at least in my particular opinion I never would have expected Jr Martinez or initially Donald Driver to take it alllll the way. This isn’t to say I didn’t grow to love them both. I just remember feeling and reading talk that Jaleel was going to go pretty far. It’s amazing what happens in that pressure cooker, how personalities change. Perhaps it was my own stupidity in not taking into consideration the MASSIVE fan bases….still….
I’d write down my own “list” of who goes first, but to be honest there are so many factors at play anymore. Melissa for sure doesn’t have the pull, but I wonder how far up Kirstie and Bristol will go. I def agree that Helio is prob the weakest guy link in that list….but I’m sure I’d get a million arguements otherwise
I wish TPTB would do some sort of shake up as far as dance styles are concerned. Pffffff…..wishful thinking? The trio dances were fun.
There are some people that will not support any of the past celebrity winners and may support some of the others that they felt should have won, Gilles, Joey for example. I don’t know how everything will play out, but we may be in for some surprises this season.
Sandy, there are some who won’t support past winners and some who won’t support old pairs, I wonder if any in those groups overlap and all they’re left to vote for are Gilles and Pam. I’m not happy about same pairings but I won’t rule them out except that I think they won’t be as interesting as the new. And I never minded the idea of past winners because it’s a new season, new competition…
“Anna & Drew can carry enthusiasm and determination onto the dance floor, but how far will it carry them in the competition?”
I say it’ll stand them in better stead than if they were ho-hum about it.
Gotta see how the pairs work their stuff, but I could easily envision scenarios where Apolo and Shawn are tops and Gilles and Kirstie finish higher up than where they appear here. Also think Marianya’s regard for Kelly’s potential is more accurate than other listers as I suspect she’ll tear it up with Val and seems to have a more sizeable, passionate online fanbase than most estimate…if they can connect some with the home audience, that’ll move her up a bit too.
@jess: me! I’m one of those
It doesn’t leave me with many options, does it lol. I can’t stand Pam, so as much as I like Tristan I won’t vote for them. Right now I’m team Gilles/Peta. Unless they come off just awful on the show for some reason. The only thing that nags me about them is that Peta just won last season, and personally I’d really like to see someone else in the winner’s circle. I feel like I’m being way too picky. 
(I know I am)
If I had to pick someone else to vote for, I’d be torn between Melissa/Tony, Apolo/Karina and Drew/Anna…and I’d probably end up with Drew/Anna simply because 1) Karina has won and Anna hasn’t, and 2) I might be wasting my votes on Melissa/Tony because they likely won’t make it far. I know my thinking is random and probably not logical to some people. Oh well.
Don’t dismiss the Packers vote Donald can pull for Peta if he really pushes for her. With any other team and football player, I’d agree that it wouldn’t matter much him telling people to vote. But my company has a division in Wisconsin. They are OBSESSED there with the Packers. They have nothing in Wisconsin but cows and the Packers. They live for the Packers, and it could actually have an effect on the vote.
Melissa out first and Bristol getting halfway would be tragic.
I think Kirstie is going to outlast both Kelly and Bristol.
I totally agree with Donna that Donald asking for votes for Peta/Gilles won’t make much difference. Another Packer, Josh Sitton even responded to him and said Peta already got a trophy and to show Tony some love.
Nah, this isn’t the packers or anyone from the packers. It’s DWTS.
Steeler fans didn’t support Kym when they realized that she and Hines weren’t secretly dating (still SMH at that fb page), and Kurt Warner’s fans haven’t exactly pushed Anna to the top. They want their athlete to win and that’s basically it. Even Bristol/Mark shippers stopped voting for him season 12 when they saw she had a Bf and Mark began dating Pia from American Idol.
I always have one couple that surprises me the most, in a good way. Hopefully Anna and Drew will be a happy surprise. I used to vote based on the pro but now I vote for good dancing and positive happy couples. Hope Solo brought that change.
I also don’t think football fans stay that loyal after their season is past. If they do its maybe a small group of hardcore fans.
I Hope Bristol And Kirstie Alley Are In The Finals Again They Deserve It They Are Amazing People And If Anybody Has A Problem With It You Deal With Me!!!
Spam much, countryboi? Cut it out with the campaigning, and there’s no need to come in here spouting empty threats to anyone that doesn’t agree with you about Bristol & Kirstie. You’ve been warned…
And here I thought all the kids were back in school already…
Oh, how I love these! Marianya, thanks so much for putting this toegether. I was shocked to see Bristol so high? I bet Kirstie does better too, but, we will see. Loves this!!
Countryboi, is that a threat? yeah right. As if dealing with you makes us scared. lol
Wow Marianya, your work on those stats is truly impressive!! Pretty amazing actually. I’m rooting for Shawn/Derek to win and am so excited to see what Apolo and Helio can do without Julianne.I expect great things from them. I like your top 10 picks except for Bristol who I pray gets booted off first. I think she’ll be the weakest link. I also think Kirstie and Maks are going to be fun personalities to watch.
Love all the numbers/data/statistics you all provide!!! Thanks for putting all this DWTS stuff together.
I started looking at some of the previous scoring and averages for the seasons to get an idea of how others fared in their first attempt. This might mean nothing with the current judges (I’m still upset/annoyed with their season 14 scores).
Interesting points people made about fanbase crossover like 2 Olympians, 2 boy band alums, 2 playboy Alums, and how that will play into the voting. I’m curious to see whothe casual watcher (watched since the first couple of seasons) will vote for, how the new and old partnerships will work, and so many other things.
Great stats, thank you!
I could see most of these actually happen, except it seems to me that Kirstie is too low (not because she’s a great dancer but just based on popularity.) And sadly, I think Kelly is too high.
I’m inclined to think the first ones to leave may include:
Kelly… who I felt needed someone more popular to keep her going until she could get up to speed with the others… the only way I could see her stay beyond the first couple eliminations would be if the daytime fans are voting in force… but everything I hear indicates the number of daytime soap fans decreases exponentially each year.
Melissa… as others have mentioned, her popularity based on Bachelor(ette) sympathy is probably weak by now… and although she is a strong dancer… I think her reuniting with Tony will mean an early exit for her.
Pamela… I am inclined to think she will fall through the cracks and get sent home… unless Tristan’s popularity truly has grown as much as some people insist it has… I’m not sure at this point.
And I think there will be a male to go home early as well but I’m not sure who I think that will be. I tend to think Helio or Drew might be a likely casualty of shared fanbases.
Also, I agree with others who feel that fans are unlikely to vote based on what a previous cast member or pro says. I appreciate that Donald is trying to round up votes for Peta and perhaps some stray fans here or there will give them a few votes based on that. However, I cannot see a situation where fans will power vote based solely on what Donald said… unless they themselves have become big Peta fans, in which case they are really voting based on their own favorites and not on what Donald requests.
Thanks for the numbers crunching, Marianya. I just hope some of my favorites do better than the numbers say they will.
I’d love to see Drew and Anna come out at full speed Week 1 and make everyone stand up and take notice. Glad to see them working hard at generating support. Hope they can get some interviews to raise their profile further. It’s going to be hard to get noticed in this cast.
Oh countryboi – you really don’t want to have to deal with ME. LOL.
Great analysis as always. I do think that you need to add another point of analysis which is the level to which the judges will over/under score. It made a HUGE difference in some of these stars getting as far as they did in their previous seasons (Kristie, Bristol) – and who might the lucky person be who gets ‘Macchio’d’ by our favorite crazy judges?
I really think Kirstie and Melissa are going to make it further than this prediction, at least I hope so. I liked both of them in their respective seasons.
Gotta disagree with you on Kirstie/Maks. His fan base is big enough alone to ensure they get to atleast week 5 or 6. Plus she is seen by middle aged women in the DWTS demo as a hero for them, a more “mature” woman who can actually dance.
My rankings:
1. Apolo and Karina
2. Gilles and Peta
3. Emmitt and Cheryl
4. Joey and Kym
5. Drew and Anna
6. Helio and Chelsie
I think Helio/Chelsie and Drew/Anna are the most vulnerable. Chelsie had a strong dancer last season and couldn’t really keep him out of the bottom so I question her fan base and will people really be motivated to vote for Helio when you have an Apolo or Gilles option especially when he already won? Not sure. Drew’s career has been sort of non existent since his season. Are there still 98 Degree fans out there willing to power voter? These couple are arguably the less passionate fan bases of both male celeb and female pro put together.
1. Shawn and Derek
2. Kirstie and Maks
3.-6. Kelly/Val Bristol/Mark Pamela/Tristan Melissa/Tony
4 of the couple are interchangeable right now with pluses and minues. Kelly/Val and Pamela/Tristan have great potential. The tricky thing is I don’t worry about Kelly’s fan base but I do worry about Val’s and I don’t worry about Tristan’s fan base but I do worry about Pamela’s. Weird. Is Palin fever really strong enough still to save Bristol if she is at the bottom? Not sure. She does have a pretty passionate base of supporters over on her facebook page. Tony will make Melissa forgettable at some point, it’s a foregone conclusion.
Eh, Kirstie might be seen by some as a “hero” – but are these same women going to pick her over Gilles or any of the other great men on the show this season? It’s not a given she will make the half way point. She’s not the dancer that some of the others on the show are, everything will hinge on the judges – are they going to be as kind to her as they were last time she was on (read: very) or will she suffer in comparison to her competition?? Last time I think she was helped because she the big personality….now she is one of many. I just wouldn’t place a lock on ANY of the women except maybe Shawn and even that I’m not sure of.
One “middle-aged woman” here… Kirstie is far from a “hero” in my book. Just a drama-filled, silly attention-getter, whose career needs a boost again…
With this All-Star cast, I can’t see how her scores will keep her in the competition, fanbase or not. I think the judges will be super tough this time around. No MBT for Maks again this season.
Torally agree with the original poster. Emmitt Smith is the darling of All footballers who ever performed on this show. Like Hines before him he brings an entire fan base just to watch Him alone. Cheryl Burke is fantastic and key to keeping his dancing current. He Handly beat a trained dancer with his charm and relaxed style that made women want to dance with him and men dance like him. This will be a fun season
#51Sandy- as another “middle aged” I agree with you about Kirstie. First time, yes, her journey and weight loss were interesting. Got tired of her lust for Maks and her mouth. This time she better have something really special to keep up with the pack.
I really saw Gilles & Karina together so am having trouble with him with Peta. But am excited to see Apolo & Karina. Also Drew and Anna seem a good pairing. Derek and Shawn just seem golden to me. I’m looking forward to some great dancing from all and wonder if the dreaded “dance duel” will be back.
And people call me biased?? Um, okay.
Pretty sure I don’t hold a candle to some of the waxing poetic I see around these parts at times.
#51 Sandy, #53 Rebecca, count me in that group too. I don’t think KA’s antics are going to take her nearly as far this season as they did her first time. I also don’t think Maks’s fan base is going to help nearly as much as they normally do since they don’t seem to be supporting this partnership this time around. And I think that fan base is what helps get him so far every season.
98 Degrees are reunited recently so I think his fans are excited. Do not underestimate boy band fans. Will they win? Who knows but there will probably be some 98 degrees fans excited about their reunion and Drew’s participation on dwts is good for the band. I loved Drew’s attitude in season 2 and seems like him and Anna are ready. I am looking forward to this new pairing.
@Andrea. I think no one was voting for Roshon and it was Chelsies fans that were the ones voting for them IMO. That kept them from elimination until Dance Duel (they were in bottome 2 with Sherry but still safe beacuse of the difference in scoring I assume).
I wasnt big on Helio in his season because I was so into Jennie and Derek, so I’m going into this season with a heavy heart for Chelsie. I just would like her to get to the finals for once. It seemed foxtrot was one of Helios better dances, and that seems to be Chelsie best dance at choreographing, so heres hoping they start with that.
Middle aged women here who will vote for Kirstie if she goes out and dances great or falls on her ass! It’s all about popularity people. Everyone can argue all they want about popularity vs. dance skills. It is nothing more than voting for the king/queen at the high school prom.
But the judges do play a role, Kelli, it’s not all popularity. Kirstie was helped tremendously by kind judges in her season. If her scores had been lower, she would have probably gone sooner.
I do understand popularity plays a huge role in the way the voting works–but it is supposed to be about the dancing, too, IMO. Which, like was said, is where the judges come in. Only sometimes you can’t count on them to not prop people who are most popular in their eyes.
KA was helped BIG TIME by judges’ over scoring her. Remember that mess of a jive? 9, 8, 7, 6……should have been 6,6,5,6 IMHO
#51 sheery, that jive may’ve been the biggest scoring joke in the history of the show. I always felt even Maks was embarassed by it.
Who do you guys think will be dancing with Carson, Kyle, or Sabrina?
Just now I saw Kristy Yamaguchi doing a NY TV appearance and it reminded me that she really deserved to be on the All-Star season. I don’t know if producers invited her or not, but she is definitely deserving of being in the mix. Also, Nicole Sherzinger was among the best dancers they had, although in her case she is doing a reality show in the UK and was not available.
DOn’t know if they asked Kristi Y., or if she turned it down, but Mya said on twitter she’d love to do it if asked…..guess she wasn’t asked
Bet she’d look great with Mark or Tristan instead of the 2 they currently have.
@sheery, it surprises me that she wasn’t asked. Seems like a no-brainer to ask all finalists, but maybe TPTB have a different definition of “all-star.” Only my opinion, but I think that’s kind of a shame. She was a really good dancer and a different partner may have brought out her personality.
@CouchPotato – It’s not about who “deserves” to be on. It’s about which celebs were willing to do it again. It’s a lot of hard work, for not a lot of reward. If you don’t need the publicity and don’t want the adrenaline rush of competition, there really isn’t much to tempt anyone to be on the show.
With that in mind, I’m impressed TPTB got as many winners and finalists as they did. This will be a competitive season for sure!
There was a blind item on another site I believe yesterday (CDAN) that referenced that a reality star/famous GF really wanted to be on a show where stars were coming back, she called producers, they said an ethusiastic yes, her boyfriend said no because of his past GF being on the show. So I kind of wonder how many people were contacted, or how many people contacted producers.
Popular guesses were Stacy Kiebler (apologize for spelling). I know my sister was particularly upset she wasn’t on this season. You kind of have to wonder how she would have done had she actually come back. She was originally on my wishlist. That doesn’t mean anything, I’m aware.
Doesn’t mean it’s 100% true, but it’s mildly interesting that she potentially/allegedly really did want to come back.
At any rate….I’m excited to see what happens….unless we get the score padded for some people. (perhaps inevitable).
Melissa G – you just touched on the other half of the equation. Seems to me TPTB would draw up a priortized wish list and work their way down the list. Celebs who contacted them or said publicly they’d like to be on either weren’t on the list or not high enough up on the list. I’m sure there were also some thoughts about getting a good mix of “types”.
I’m excited to see how this experiment turns out too. In fact I’d like to see the judges get pretty brutal with their paddles. I hope we don’t see a pattern of inflated scoring to prop up certain people.
Please spare me – we don’t report a lot of what we see for a reason. Blind items are a step below real rags like the National Enquirer or Star. They’re blind for a reason – because someone wants to get paid for speculating and getting people talking.
Cidra – exactly, would love to see the judging take a more serious approach. Doubtful after last season but I suppose there’s always room to hope.
Heidi – wasn’t trying to offend anyone by posting it. Wasn’t even saying it should be reported here, not my place. Suppose it’s just another way to pass the slow time at work. No worries, will avoid in the future.
unfortunately it looks like the dance duels may be back in the middle weeks just saw sabrina bryan talk tabour it on access hollywood its in the videos on the website where she is campaigning such a cop out to have it in the all star season
heres the link to the video i was talking about and she says they created it cuz of her which is tru but shouldn’t be in a competition at all. http://watch.accesshollywood.com/video/sabrina-bryan-fighting-for-your-vote-to-compete-on-dancing-with-the-stars:-all-stars/1786976447001
This isn’t a popular opinion, but I actually don’t think I’d mind the dance duels if it would stop someone like Kirstie/Bristol/maybe Helio (sorry, I didn’t think he was that good) and Emmitt (him too) from knocking out people like Melissa, possibly Kelly if she’s good, Drew. It would all depend on how the judges played it. I can see how it could be awful or how it could be great. Just my personal preference, of course.
I probably get the reasoning behind the dance duels, but I absolutely hate them.
Seriously Jeff, They may have created it so something like that doesn’t happen again, BUT I am so sick of hearing about Sabrina *shocking elimination*. It certainly has been overkill, Note to DWTS: Give it a rest already!!
Even worse, if she is voted in, that’s all we are going to hear… Sabrina, Sabrina, Sabrina. Ugh!
I’m in the minority with Violet.
We wouldn’t need dance duels if the judges actually scored based on the quality of the dance instead of who was doing the dancing. However, if they’re not going to do that, I’m willing to put up with dance duels. At least it gives us some hope of keeping a better dancer instead of a prom king/queen.
but Violet for an all stars season that supposed to be the best of the best on they should not be protecting anyone it should be who the viewers think are worth staying not the judges the only thing i see with this is to protect Sabrina or Bristol if she is pulling in big viewers but not enough votes .
But the majority of the viewers/voters might not want to see the “better dancer” over the “prom king/queen”, and the dance duel just angers them and makes them feel powerless and too much of that and they’ll change the channel and well… bye-bye Top 10 ranked TV show.
@Sandy, Here’s a silver lining for you – imagine how it would be if Sabrina got eliminated in a dance duel
They created it because of her?? JUST her?? Well, my goodness, they are really freakin’ SLOW aren’t they?? LOL. Yeah Sabrina, 8 season AFTER you got an early elimination, they decided to do something about it. It had nothing to do with Chyna or Kristin or any of the other lesser known but decent dancers. Jaysus. This is how the show works. The judges hand out scores, the viewers vote. If the viewers don’t like you….or they just like other people BETTER than you…and your scores aren’t high enough? You LEAVE.
As soon as they start tinkering with that they run the risk of losing viewers. To put it very bluntly, as is my way, it sucks ass.
I see both of your points, and just as far as my own preference of what I like to see on the show, I disagree.
@Jeff, but I don’t think we honestly have “the best of the best”, which is just my opinion, and I know some think we do. But best dancers–Kirstie? Bristol? Pam? Pam didn’t even make the finals in her season, based on scores OR fans. That, IMO, is not “best of the best”.
@Evaine–I never have, but I’ve come close to changing the channel myself because of what I considered propping. It makes me upset to see people get by with scores they don’t deserve because the judges are scoring them on their likability, or the choreography, or whatever. I’m not as passionate a voter as some–I don’t create a lot of accounts and vote over and over. I have two accounts to vote, and vote by phone. I feel a lot of the time like my voice isn’t being heard because I’m being drowned out by the superfans who put a lot of votes in, be it of a certain celeb or a certain pro And that’s their right, and there’s nothing I can do about it except put in more votes myself, I just don’t have the time or patience for that. I’m sure there are probably a lot of casual voters don’t even vote that much, who could feel the same way. So as far as alienating your audience, I think it could go both ways, re: the dance duel
But with the Dance Duels, Cidra, the judges get to have their cake and eat it too. They can score like crap, not admit that they score like crap, and end up saving the person they like better. They get what they want while taking no responsibility for the outcomes.
I get that Evaine, but TPTB’s whole focus is on ratings. If they thought the dance duel was driving away viewers, they wouldn’t do it.
A less self-serving aragument (which I don’t for a minute believe applies to ABC) would be to discuss the role of “government” (in this case TPTB) to protect the rights of “the minority” (in this case viewers who do want to see the “better dancer”). However, I don’t want to get anywhere near that type of discussion.
Dance duel or no dance duel, I feel I’m still going to enjoy this season a lot.
Hope you will too. Bring on the All Stars!
Well yeah, but they also think that Sabrina is the be all and end all, so… *shrug*
AS far as power voting? I really don’t think it has as much affect as we denizens of the internet would like to think it does. I
Eh, Violet, you had me until you threw in the comment about Choreography – that reasoning is bull. Why? Because they score on choreography when they DON’T LIKE IT also. You can’t have it both ways. You can’t whine because Maria (or whoever) got a good score because Derek choreographed something extremely entertaining (which is part of the show after all) but might not be traditional, but then cheer when Len gives him a 6 for not having a volta or what ever the hell it is that he likes in his Sambas…or a 7 or 8 for not having enough dancing “in hold” even though it’s an American Smooth. So what if the celeb executed a beautiful V. Waltz that is well within the rules of the dance….Len is giving it an 8 or 7 because Derek didn’t put in enough in hold. THAT is judging on choreography too.
Choreography is part of it, good and bad. Execution is part of it, good and bad. Presentation is part of it, good and bad. It’s all a package and it all counts. When it gets me is when it seems pretty obvious to everyone that the attitude isn’t great, the execution isn’t that great and the choreography is okay – but the score is still GOOD. That pisses me off. Len Goodman, the guy who knocked a point or two off Derek and Maria because he likes to see Maria in hold (in an American Smooth), gave an *8* to Bristol in a monkey suit. THAT sort of thing pisses me off.
As for voting – I think the casual voter beats out the power voters in sheer numbers. If there are a couple hundred power voters, but a million casual voters, your voice is being heard. It’s just that most don’t agree with you.
I know, PH. I guess my cynicism runs so deep with network TV that I feel it’ll be a cold day in hell when they make the judges accountable for their scores. So I’m willing to go to the dark side for a chance at my slice of cake (which is seeing a better dancer for another week instead of the majority’s favorite clod-hopper).
I go into this pact with the devil with my eyes wide open. Because there’s no guarantee I’ll get any cake at all. The fan favorite could end up 3rd from the bottom with 2 better dancers left to duel it out. C’est la vie.
Power voters v. casual voters…you’re probably right. I still think there is more of a difference than that, though. I’m sure the numbers aren’t quite that skewed as in, a couple hundred vs. a million. I would be willing to bet there are tons of power voters, though they all might be power voting for someone different.
As far as the choreography, I get that it’s part of the show. I do. I like to watch a dance that’s been masterfully created much more than one that has kind of just been slapped together and not paid enough attention to. What makes me mad on that front is when, though it is a brilliant dance, the celeb might miss a step or look stiff or whatever, yet their scores are still good because the judges were so swept up in the power of the presentation. And I don’t think they should score against the celeb when they don’t like the choreography, either. But, like you said, it’s part of the package and it’s not going to change. Just venting.
And I whole heartedly agree on what you said about Len and those 8′s. That kind of stuff ticks me off, too. I don’t think they should grade a celeb on their own personal scale–they should expect the same out of all of them, IMO.
I like Shawn and was happy when she won her season but I dont think she has a shot this season (nor do I with the other female “celebs” as well). At best I see her in the finale but I think this season is all about the men. You never know on this show especially with it being all-stars. I only hope the judges only have one agenda this season and thats to Bristol out asap. Thats the cynic in me though.
Seems like the producers did the dance duel and the WTA cha cha cha because of BRANDY/BRISTOL incident…not Sabrina lol.
Sandy i agree with you on that i am sick of hearing about Sabrina too but i was just stating some facts from the video about what sabrina and the hosts of access hollywood live said about the dance duel and why they thought it was created I personally don’t like it as I stated above because it makes me feel as a voter my power is taken away from me sure we vote the bottom 2 but we don’t get a say in who goes home beyond that.
I agree that the producers probably started the WTA because of Brandy and Bristol the season before. They thought Ralph beating out Chelsea would cause a reaction like that, but I’m guessing it wouldn’t have. Ralph and Bristol really can’t be compared. Regardless, it was a bad idea!
Does anyone think that Carson/Kyle/Sabrina stand a chance against the rest of the cast? I don’t.
[...] Then there will be a second table that would show not only how the celebrity stack up in each individual category but what the overall final ranking would be in accordance to the numbers. If you remember from my previous post I highly doubt the rankings are going to change much. [...]