Dancing with the Stars Season 15: Predicted Eliminations w/ Professional Partners (Entire Cast)
UPDATE: Due to a glitch in the original spreadsheet some of the below rankings were incorrect… after double and triple checking the numbers the below predictions are correct in accordance to the spreadsheet… I apologize for any confusion this may cause.
Via today’s announcement we could finally put up a full table with all the stars and how the numbers say they would be eliminated. What I will do is first I will have a table of the Season 15 cast with their categorical breakdowns via professional partner, their current age group, and the occupation they are most known for up to this point.
Then there will be a second table that would show not only how the celebrity stack up in each individual category but what the overall final ranking would be in accordance to the numbers. If you remember from my previous post I highly doubt the rankings are going to change much.
CELEBRITY INDIVIDUAL CATEGORIES
CELEBRITY | PROFESSIONAL PARTNER | OCCUPATION | AGE | FINAL RANK |
Shawn Johnson | Derek Hough | Olympian | 20s | 1st |
Apolo Anton Ohno | Karina Smirnoff | Olympian | 30s | 2nd |
Emmitt Smith | Cheryl Burke | NFL | 40s | 3rd |
Joey Fatone | Kym Johnson | Band Member | 30s | 4th |
Sabrina Bryan | Louis van Amstel | Disney | 20s | |
Bristol Palin | Mark Ballas | Other | 20s | |
Gilles Marini | Peta Murgatroyd | Actor | 30s | |
Drew Lachey | Anna Trebunskaya | Band Member | 30s | |
Kirstie Alley | Maks Chmerkovskiy | Actress | 60s | |
Melissa Rycroft | Tony Dovolani | Reality TV Star | 20s | |
HΓ©lio Castroneves | Chelsie Hightower | Athlete | 30s | 11th |
Kelly Monaco | Val Chmerkovskiy | Soap Opera Star | 30s | |
Pamela Anderson | Tristan MacManus | Actress | 40s |
CELEBRITY INDIVIDUAL CATEGORIES RANKINGS
CELEBRITY | PROFESSIONAL PARTNER | OCCUPATION | AGE | FINAL RANK |
Shawn Johnson | 1st | 2nd | 1st | 1st |
Apolo Anton Ohno | 2nd | 5th | 2nd | |
Emmitt Smith | 2nd | 1st | 12th | 3rd |
Joey Fatone | 5th | 4th | ||
Sabrina Bryan | 10th | 1st | ||
Bristol Palin | 3rd | 13th | 1st | |
Gilles Marini | 8th | 5th | ||
Drew Lachey | 12th | 5th | ||
Kirstie Alley | 4th | 9th | 11th | |
Melissa Rycroft | 12th | 1st | ||
HΓ©lio Castroneves | 9th | 11th | 5th | 11th |
Kelly Monaco | 13th | 7th | 5th | |
Pamela Anderson | 7th | 9th | 12th |
Enjoy!
Ugh. I sure hope we don’t have to put up with Louis until the half-way mark. So Marianya, is there any way to take the “A-hole factor” into account? π
Me too Sally! I can’t believe that Sabrina paired with Louis would make it to the midway point. Next to Tony, Louis is one of the least popular pros on the show.
I can see it now, Sabrina taking down one of the favorites to win, just because TPTB will never shut up about poor wittle Sabrina. I hope they are one of the first couples to bite the dust!
I really hope Melissa is not the first out π I would love it to be Bristol, and I wouldn’t be sad if it were Pam or Helio.
I think it is sort of refreshing to have Louis back, as he hasn’t been on the show in two seasons and for me personally, sometimes it gets a bit stale. I’d take him over Mark, Maks or Cheryl any day of the week. I think I will be much more entertained, dance wise, by Sabrina and Louis than about half of the other couples.
I still believe that unless something “strange” happens, Kelly and Pam will be the first 2 to go home.
Helio is understimated…
How’s las vegas odds now?
I’m also tired of the “poor Sabrina she was robbed”-whatever! Get over it.
I also agree with Carlos, I believe Helio is underestimated.
Should be an interesting season.
Thanks for this Marianya.
Just imagine if Sabrina is eliminated via Bristol fans Brandy-style.
Oh forgot to add, hopefully the judges will “judge”, if you know what I mean and don’t “screw” things up.
Well, if they won’t shut up about poor wittle Sabrina, we need to start reading Variety or Hollywood Reporting looking for the ABC show that she has lined up. That would be the only thing that would explain it.
Sorry Sally, if I could quantify personality and character flaws I would…
John had a long list of variables he wanted me to use, but most of it cannot be quantified… Granted you could incorporate the “a-hole” factor into the professional partner category…
Too bad Sabrina can’t play the showmance card again this time around. *snicker*
Carlos, you should talk to Vogue about the Vegas odds – she is the one that finds them for us. I don’t know that they’ve done any more yet, since they were still waiting to hear all of the partnerships and the 13th contestant.
I think Emmitt is getting a bit overestimated, and Drew is getting underestimated. I think the former is going to struggle with his body being 6 years older now, and the latter is a lot more determined that some are giving him credit for.
Just a random (evil) thought: what if the renegade Sabrina/Mark and Bristol/Mark shippers somehow cancel each other out with their power voting, and we lose both girls in a double elimination? I might pee my pants with joy. π
@LOL Courtney – Word to self… Precautions may need to be secured before results show just in case. π
@Heidi – Well that wouldn’t surprise me in the least, the other Cheetah girl Ardienne (Rob K’s ex), has her own show.
Here is hoping that Mariyana is wrong and Bristol goes out first…..and I want Tristan around longer….
Thanks for the info. I will be fun to compare with the results once the show starts.
tee hee hee, pee your pants with joy, what a visual, just like a happy puppy
Man, that would be awesome, Court. I do think their situation will be akin to splitting votes.
I doubt Sabrina and Louis will gain new fans along the way. Their dancing might carry them until week 3-4, but I doubt it will carry them beyond that.
That may be the one and only scenario in which I might be thankful for crazy shippers π
I like this list, I hope it goes almost exactly as planned… although I would like to see Bristol gone sooner. Sabrina should have had Dmitry, but I suppose height was a factor. Oh and don’t get me started on shippers… the season 12 “nuts” are acting if Peta does not exist. Anyhow… great job as always on this website!!
We’ll be having a new Las Vegas odds post coming up this week. Carlos, you are reading my mind. Stay tuned. π
Wow and Sabrina making it to 6th? I’ll believe it when I see it. Neither she or Louis have the “likable” factor.
LOVE the scenario about the Bristol/Mark and Sabrina/Mark shippers cancelling each other out with a double elimination. Could see TPTB’s heads exploding or them eating up the publicity.
We shall see about Helio – he has a big personality, but this season is full of big personalities. We shall also see which couple TPTB instructs to play the showmance card this season, as IMO, showmancing is just as much part of the script as the rehearsal packages.
Marianya, how did Karina end up being in 8th place?
Thanks.
Court – well, I almost hate to say it, but here’s hoping you pee your pants! π
@Irina – Thanks for catching that! I had to double check my numbers and found out something odd… I originally had the spreadsheet ready for the upcoming season to start… but I forgot that by doing that it would affect some of the placements when I created the above post… let me update it real quick…
And then you guys could flame me even more when yous see it.
No flaming me from me. After all, we’re only human. I love these. Thanks. Love you Marianya!!xx
I hope Courtney pees her pants too. π
I’d like to think that Bristol doesn’t stand a chance this season, but I kinda thought the same thing in season 11. I hope Pam’s not eliminated before her but I’m honestly worried for her and Tristan!
Kelsey, I worry for Pamela and Tristan too. I think a lot of the momma and gramma bears who watch DWTS are offended by mature playmates and feel quite protective of *cough* sweet and brave *cough* young single moms who say they are doing the show again to “provide for my child”. π Since I can’t change the demo, I’ll hope for the best and just enjoy as much Tristan and Pamela as I can until they’re eliminated. π
Here are my predictions:
Shawn & Derek 1st
Emmith & Cheryl 2nd
Joey & Kym 3rd
Apolo & Karina 4th
Sabrina & Louis 5th
Gilles & Peta 6th
Kirstie & Maks 7th
Drew & Anna 8th
Melissa & Tony 9th
Helio & Chelsie 10th
Bristol & Mark 11th
Pamela & Tristan 12th
Kelly & Val 13th
If the Sabrina/Bristol scenario happens, Im throwing a party. I Tell my friends that about a lot of things, but this I’m serious about
I’m pretty good with statistics because of my education and my job. So, naturally, reading this post excited me, but when I finished reading it I’m surprised. Although it hurts me to say this, I don’t think the final picture will be anything like this. Now I’m not saying the values and the analysis were all misplaced, it’s more about variables and statistical inference.
But hey, if all of us could calculate the results correctly, it would ruin the suspense of the show right? π
#10—–I was coming here to post that same thought!!! Wondering if Miss Bryan has a show upcoming within the Disney/ABC family?
#13—–LUV IT!!!! π
#20—–You mean the nutty shippers who think Peta spent more time with Val and is really dating him and not Maks because Maks is secretly with Kirstie? ROTF!!!
Don’t they realize KA tweets her boy-toy and Val has a GF? I mean they are their BIGGEST fans who KNOW them SO well.
Hi Marianya, thanks for the update. I have to say, this is the top 3 I am predicting as well (without any calculations, LOL).
Thanks again.
Thank you girls. I’ll stay tuned. =]
I’m also trying to figure out how the voters will share their votes…
[…] as broken down by categories (age, occupation, professional partner). When compared with my original elimination predictions you could kind of get an idea of how the various categories rank from throughout the entire […]
Traute, who do you think “taught” Bristol’s fans in season 11 to “power vote”? I read some of their posts on abc board after voting last night and they were asking how to vote online. So either original phone only voters, or new voters.
Almost ALL regular die hard dwts “stuff the ballot box” with their votes over there –especially for finals. Listen to Brooke when she instructs viewers about voting–they basically encourage you to vote a lot!
Vote hard for your favorite so other celeb fans don’t out vote you if you are bothered by it. π
I do….something haha.