DWTS All Stars Las Vegas Odds After Announcement Of Wildcard Couple
So, now that the 13th couple has been announced for the Dancing With The Stars All Star Season, let’s see what the odds makers in Las Vegas have to say about it. Below is a run down of the Las Vegas Odds from a previous posting when we first found out who would be dancing. After that is the NEW Las Vegas Odds from Sports Bovada. Note how they still have Pamela coming in last. They’ve also lowered Bristol and Melissa. Helio and Apolo have been switched around with Apolo at the top.
First preliminary Las Vegas Odds the before 13th couple was announced:
Helio Castroneves 9/2
Apolo Anton Ono 5/1
Emmitt Smith 6/1
Shawn Johnson 6/1
Drew Lachey 7/1
Joey Fatone 7/1
Kelly Monaco 15/2
Gilles Marini 10/1
Kirstie Alley 10/1
Melissa Rycroft 12/1
Bristol Palin 15/1
Kyle Massey/Sabrina Bryan/Carson Kressley 20/1
Pamela Anderson 25/1
New preliminary Las Vegas Odds AFTER the 13th couple was announced:
Apolo Anton Ono 9/2
Helio Castroneves 5/1
Emmitt Smith 6/1
Shawn Johnson 6/1
Drew Lachey 15/2
Joey Fatone 15/2
Gilles Marini 9/1
Kirstie Alley 14/1
Kelly Monaco 15/1
Sabrina Bryan 15/1
Melissa Rycroft 18/1
Bristol Palin 25/1
Pamela Anderson 40/1
So, do the odds makers have it right or wrong?
I think they have Helio way too high. He should be more towards the bottom. I also think they are underestimating Gilles. They are underestimating Pamela as well. I think Kirstie is going to be more of a force than many realize too. Let’s get my sistah’s thoughts because they are ‘in the know’ if you know what I mean. 
Be sure you let us know your thoughts too in the comment section.
Courtney: They still have Helio too high. I get it, he’s a fun, popular guy - but in a sea of fantastic dancers? He’s gonna look a bit weak. And I wouldn’t underestimate the comedic appeal of a sultry American bombshell paired with a modest, boy-next-door Irishman 
Not so sure why they have Kelly so high – are they banking on her soap opera fanbase to pull her through? Because I doubt it’s going to be her dance skills keeping her around…and judging from what I’ve seen so far, she also seems to have a bit of a lack of motivation to really get competitive. Emmitt? Also too high – I think that, like Helio, they’re banking on his personality carrying him through, and seem to forget that he maybe wasn’t the strongest champion we’ve had and he’s also in his 40′s now…with a lifetime of football injuries under his belt. I actually think they have Gilles about right – I don’t think he’s going to do as well this season as we may have originally thought, based on the fact that he seems a bit bummed about not getting his preferred partner…and the jury’s still out on his actual partner’s choreographic skills.
Heidi: I think just about the ONLY thing they’ve gotten right is Apolo at the very top (although he may not actually win) and the first five eliminations (although not necessarily in that order)…sort of. I think Helio is way too high, as is Emmett. I kind of agree with where they put Gilles, too. More because he seems to have Brandy-itis this time around – that is, an extreme desire to WIN at all costs. That’s off putting to a lot of people. Including me, and I love Gilles. He needs to RELAX. I don’t know who will be the first person out, but I do think it will be one of those bottom five women they have listed…and I think they might be about right with Kirstie as well. What you have to think about in this instance is not JUST the ability of a given dancer, but the ability and fanbase of all the other dancers on the show at the same time. That’s why I’m not sure that Kirstie is going to get anywhere near the final, let alone the top five, and that Helio and Emmett are over rated. That’s also why it’s very possible that Pam could be the first out, followed by Kelly, Melissa and Sabrina. But really – this season is going to be difficult to predict. The test of any fanbase on this show will be how they survive not being at the top of the leader board. It could be as simple as “you’re at the bottom, you’re out” – and I think that could apply to several of our celebrities this time around. The ones that I think NEED to not be at the bottom of the leaderboard the first week are Pam, Bristol, Kelly, Helio and maybe Drew.
Odds confuse the hell out of me lol but i think we are in for a surprise this time
I’m so happy they have helio up so high I’m happy for him and fhelsie hopefully this will push them to kill it and prove everyone wrong
Helio was great on his season but among the all stars he doesn’t stand out , i think they are Seriously underestimating Pamela. I don’t think Kelly has that big a fan base. They are seriously underestimating Kirstie she is a powerhouse,and we know she has a huge following. I’m curious to see how Bristol’s fan-base holds up this season against an all star cast. I hope Joey goes home first I find something about him extremely annoying I don’t know why.And thy shouldn’t underestimate Sabrina either .
Odds confuse the crap outta me. I am not a math person at all!
What I wonder about this season, though, is how vote splitting is going to factor in. You ladies have proved time and time again that it is NOT a good idea to split votes. Which is why I’m going to pick one couple and stick with them, as much as it pains me (unless they are voted out, then I’d move on to someone else).
It’s something I haven’t really thought about untilt the last couple of days. There are so many who could split votes.
Apolo/Shawn: Olympics fans
Joey/Drew: Boy band fans
Too many to count: fans of great dancing
etc, etc. It is going to be really interesting to see how everything unfolds. I’m starting to think maybe the season won’t be as predictible as I’d originally thought, or maybe that’s just wishful thinking on my part. I like surprises!
I know this is not the place to post this, but Kiki has not been invited back to the troupe, as far as i know it`s only Henry that`s a definate yes. Will this be the last we see of Oksana`s flying hair?.
I get confused with the odds too, Violet.
I was also thinking along your line of the splitting of votes – I believe that will be the “elimnination factor” for some front runners.
I am going to stick to my #1 choice first and see what happens. I think there are so many good & fun couples this year that noone is a “for sure to make the finals”.
Well, Violet, I don’t think that Shawn and Apolo’s audiences really coincide that much. I think there will be vote splitting between Sabrina and Bristol, but I think Shawn has a different audience there too. I think that Cheryl’s current and former partners may have a little bit of that, but I think it will be Gilles that suffers. Joey and Drew could have some vote splitting, true.
I think it’s going to come down to the partnerships – which old ones are stale and which new ones don’t click – in addition to who’s got the biggest fanbase and who can still dance and what pro you have. A ton of variables.
@Lisa I saw on Sharna’s page that she is back on the troupe as well.
I am shocked that Helio placed so high on the before and after. Not surprised about Apolo’s placing… I think he will more than likely make the finals if not win the whole thing.
Shawn’s placing did not change in either one.. , but what I did find the most interesting is the ladies will be dropping like flies, as some of us have already predicted may happen.
interesting. hope former stars come back to dance with the troupe.
As I said on another post, be the best dancer doesn’t mean you will be the one who won tmbt neither that the judges will score you properly…
Thanks for the new odds, Vogue! I like unpredictable, so this is shaping up to be a fun and interesting season…*if* the crack-addled judges get clean before the show and TPTB resist the urge to storyboard the hell out of it.
As for the odds, Helio’s placement confuzzles me. I think the oddsmakers are banking on “Cowboys Nation” voting like crazy for Emmitt. I agree most of the women are cannon-fodder this season, but I hope Pamela beats the odds.
PH, I would have put Melissa on the list of those who can’t afford to be at the bottom Week 1. Am I underestimating her appeal? She’s my pick to go out first.
Well, just looking at the general trend – they do have all of the female celebs (except for Shawn) with the highest odds, and think that’s right. We’ve all said the men are a lot stronger than the women this time around. Other than Helio being too high (as lots of others have said), I can’t quibble too much with these odds.
I think Pam is a little underestimated, but she was underestimated the first time she was on I think. But I’m not entirely sure.
Why do people think we are underestimating Pamela?
First elimination of her season she finished in the bottom nearly 18 points ahead of Buzz Aldrin who got more votes than her…she was way ahead of Aiden Turner, Kate Gosselin, Bachelor Jake, and Chad Ochocincho and they ALL beat her vote totals to finish ahead of her.
I personally like her but judging by my unscientific observations on the DWTS page she gets the 2nd most negative reactions after Bristol. The DWTS audience is women and some women really don’t like her because of her exotic sexual personality and appearance.
I think Tristan is popular, and they appear to have very good chemistry. But is it enough to save her from an early elimination when she CLEARLY had the softest fan support on their season of anyone asked back? I don’t think so.
I think unless they really knock the socks of their routines, Melissa, Pamela, Bristol, and Helio are gonna be the most vulnerable. Kelly possibly too because her dancing on her season was not that impressive compared to later seasons and Val has not gotten past the 3rd eliminations but her General Hospital fan base puts her a little more safe compared to the other 4.
Vegas odds show their chances to win the whole thing . They’re not ranking them, right?
Cidra, she’s on that list for me as well – accidentally left her off.
Helio’s placement shouldn’t be confusing. The odds makers don’t watch and analyze the show the way they do, so they took everyone who won their season and put them at the top of the ranking. The odds makers have been consistently WRONG from the outset every season about people leaving and who wins. This season is no different, really, except their odds of being right are a bit higher just because there is a history there.
Basically my odds in order are-
1. Gilles- I think once we get down to the nitty gritty, they are gonna play up the fact that Shawn/Apollo already won and fans will rally for the great dancer who hasn’t won.
2. Shawn- Popular Olympian Former Champion Derek Hough
3. Apollo- Popular Olympian Former Champion Karina Smirnoff
I think these will be the final 3. My Tier 1 contenders.
The rest are hard to predict! I group them up tiers.
Tier 2
Joey- Had great chemistry with Kym, danced/performed for years and this past year, good showman
Drew- He and Joey really competing for similiar votes being the former boy banders, are there still a TON of NSYNC/98 Degrees fans willing to power vote for either once we get down to who makes the finals?, very like able, good dancer, good chemistry with Anna who can be inconsistent.
Emmitt- NFLers have massive fan bases, he won the crowd over last time, Cheryl who is becoming annoying always seems to go far.
Sabrina- hard to rank, she will have to be flawless every week as I don’t think she has a huge fan base. Her fans have had practice voting the last month. She has the victim storyline over being allegedly robbed. How will she and Louis blend? If she is as obnoxious as last time, and we have ever reason to believe she will be based on her recent interviews, a more likeable upstart like Kelly or Pamela or an underdog like Kirstie/Bristol could easily surpass her just like Jennier Garth, Marie Osmond, and Jane Seymour did the first time. Also how big is Louis fan base after being gone 2 seasons?
Kirstie- I include her here for 1 reason. Maks. Arguably the biggest fan base after Derek and they have become delusional. Taking forgettable contestants like Melissa Gilbert and sour pusses like Hope Solo weeks further than they deserved. Kirstie is a riot and many of the women in the audience that makes up DWTS fell in love with her last time.
Tier 3
Kelly- Soap Opera fan bases are not as strong as they were 7 years ago. Thats why theres only 3 soap operas still on the air! She appears to have good chemistry with Val and a very good personality. What concerns me is her dancing which was A LONG TIME AGO, way before the show really elevated the dancing, was rather pedestrian, and Val has not shown he has the fan base to go far…YET.
Bristol- I don’t think Palin mania is anywhere near it was in 2010. She is also arguably the weakest performer in the cast so it’s almost a given she will be at or near the bottom of the leader board. But she does have a new look and her back story and chemistry with Mark is what got her so far last time.
Helio- He isn’t that bad a dancer. The chemistry with Chelsie is still yet to be seen. It’s a little iffy right now. But of all the champs returning her seems to be the one people are least excited to see return and the one less likely people would give votes to. I mean if some people start out saying I wont vote for a champion, Shawn may change them, Apollo might, maybe even Emmitt and Drew, but Helio? Not sure
Pamela- I think people are overstimating Tristan’s fan base. He is popular. But passionate enough to overcome Pamela’s clear lack of connection to the audience? Don’t think so. But they do have the ability to win people over with some steamy chemistry.
Melissa- I like her and she has a likeable personality. But she feels like yesterdays news. And could get lost in the shuffle. And Tony is her partner so it’s almost a guarantee she will.
Thanks, PH. I have confidence in your analysis, and when I didn’t see Melissa on your list, I thought I must be missing something about her history that would keep her “safe”.
The oddsmakers must be relieved that they’ve actually got some history to help them with their odds this early in the season.
I don’t know anything about betting, but at this point, getting the odds wrong shouldn’t hurt them much. They’re just trying to get people to lay down money based on their numbers. They only have to pay out based on the odds they have on book when the winner is revealed,r right? And by then it’s pretty cut and dried. I don’t see how they make any money on DWTS. There must be more to it than I’m getting.
“Gilles Marini 9/1″ and “Joey Fatone 15/2″ struck me as odd. Clearly, they haven’t watched any dances from either of them.
I’m not going to lie, I am pulling and most excited for Kelly Monaco. It most likely has to do with the fact, that I’ve been “born again” with General Hospital and I’m starting to love her character. That and I’m starting to develop a crush on her (Back OFF, Zach!) and so I really do want her to perform well AND hope to DEAR LIFE her rabid Twitter fan base will not just tweet support but actually VOTE. BUT, that being said, I totally agree with the bloggers that she is definitely at risk. Her season was long ago and if you look back at the freestyle, there is no way she would get a score higher than 23 if the Judges were being kind today. But I’m not going to lie, Kelly and Pam are my girls. And to a certain extent, so is Melissa but I am just so torn about who to vote for but Kelly is coming around full circle. However, I may just have to wait until the Season Premiere to decide how I will vote.
I really have doubts that these odds are accurate. I don’t think calibrating them take all the little oddities in account or realize that most of the time, the stars aren’t judged by their dancing ability. Throw in (I assume still crazed) innacurate judging, the whole contingent of believers who won’t vote for anyone who has won b4, won’t vote because somebody has the same partner(or doesn’t have the same partner),or they will vote for someone because of a role they have played and on and on and on.
Unless there is a full moon or an eclipse or “I don’t know what” I doubt this season will end the way it looks like it should end. After being contentious, and ugly because after all TPTB made sure to include some of the biggest whiners, lightning rod personalitys etc, I am sure it will end up lookin a whole lot different than we would think.
I dont know where to post this but Kristi just tweeted their first dance is foxtrot so now lets hope Sabrina and Louis get Foxtrot too
Apolo’s twitter mentions Cha-Cha-Cha-1, 2, 3..
I would quibble with some of the odds, but I think it’s probably pretty accurate in terms of who they have in the top 7 and who they have in the bottom 6. Within the top 7 I would agree with many that Helio is too high, and Gilles a little too low. I also agree with the person who said Gilles’ desperation to win is a little off-putting, especially since he seems to be so serious and almost unhappy to be back. People tend to vote for the stars who seem to be having fun. If he can get over that before the start and if his on-air package doesn’t focus on that and just his natural dance ability he could still climb to the top three.
The top group are all really good and have at least some shot
-oops, accidentally posted before I was finished. I agree with Apolo being the slight favorite at this point. He will face a lot of competition, but I’ll be surprised if he isn’t in the finale. His biggest danger is that he and Karina may come off as too serious because they are both so competitive and such workaholics. If they remember to have fun (and show the audience they are having fun) they should do well. They have shown some rehearsal photos on their twitters that also look very promising (both in terms of dance ability and having fun).
Cha-cha should get Apolo and Karina off to a fun start.
I’m surprised TPTB didn’t give Kirstie Cha-cha again for her first dance since that’s how she wowed everyone the first time. Is this a sign they aren’t going to give her the red-carpet treatment this time around?
Giving Sabrina Foxtrot would seem the most obvious choice for TPTB (and they’re pretty obvious sometimes).
Can’t wait for the rehearsal info to start rolling in! The start to this season has been so long and drawn out, it’s making me crazy.
Even though Apolo mentions Cha-Cha in his twitter, now I am not so sure, their pictures look more like a Foxtrot.
Dang it! I wish I could be a little mouse in the house and take a little peek at what goes on in rehearsals.