Dancing with the Stars Season 15: Season Premiere (Week 1) Predictions!

UPDATE: So I updated the table to include the Actual Scores from Monday’s Premiere of Season 15… Interesting things happening here. The main thing though is that these predicted scores never take into account any kind of under or over scoring in any capacity… so really just take them with a grain of salt. :)

A quick glance between the below table and my elimination predictions… I am looking at Pamela Anderson to have the dubious honor of being the first to go this season. With either Melissa or Kirstie as possibilities.

Many thanks to Heidi for finding out who is dancing what for the season premiere.

Let’s look at the below table before I start explaining what I did differently this time around:

 
RANKING
PREDICTION
ORIGINAL SCORES
ACTUAL SCORES
COUPLE DANCE
AGE
JOB
PRO
RANK
SCORE
WEEK
DANCE
AVE
RANK
SCORE
Emmitt / Cheryl Cha-Cha
12
10
4
11
19
24
24
1
24.5
Gilles / Peta Foxtrot
6
5
8
7
20
24
29
26.5
2
24
Sabrina / Louis Cha-Cha
4
2
11
4
20
26
26
3
22.5
Shawn / Derek Foxtrot
2
1
 
2
23
23
27
25
4
22
Apolo / Karina Cha-Cha
9
6
10
9
20
21
21
4
22
Helio / Chelsie Foxtrot
6
8
3
6
20
22
22
6
21.5
Drew / Anna Foxtrot
6
 
6
8
20
24
26
25
6
21.5
Kelly / Val Cha-Cha
9
11
 
13
18
10
25
17.5
6
21.5
Melissa / Tony Foxtrot
2
7
5
3
21
23
27
25
9
21
Joey / Kym Cha-Cha
9
3
9
5
20
24
24
10
20.5
Bristol / Mark Cha-Cha
4
12
2
10
19
18
18
11
19.5
Kirstie / Maksim Foxtrot
1
4
1
1
23
23
23
23
12
19
Pamela / Tristan Cha-Cha
12
9
7
12
19
21
21
13
17

When I started running the numbers for the season premiere of Dancing with the Stars… and predicting the scores I came across a few anomalies that I thought would amuse you guys:
- No Band Member has ever done the Foxtrot in the first four weeks (first “third”) of any season
- Derek Hough has never done the Foxtrot before in the first four weeks (first “third”) of any season

Interesting conundrum… no?

So… rather than attempt to figure out a number/score to predict from… I just went with the data that I had available on hand. A new element I will have this season is that (time permitting) I will compare each weekly score with how the couple did in their original season in the same week, as well as the dance in their original season… this way you guys could see how everyone stacks up not only against one another… but from the last time they were on the dancefloor.

Now if you noticed there are some couples that did the exact same dance in the exact same week while there are other that did a different dance in their first week and as thus I provided the original score of the same that they probably did in a different week.

What I have also done is provide the rankings as broken down by categories (age, occupation, professional partner). When compared with my original elimination predictions you could kind of get an idea of how the various categories rank from throughout the entire series.

So when you compare the two tables together the Bottom Two are the same: Pamela Anderson and Kelly Monaco. It would be interesting to see if that is what would come pass tonight and tomorrow night. Whether the scores above would reflect what would actually be given during tonight’s premiere remains to be seen. Hopefully by the end of the evening when the actual scores are given I will update the above table with the point difference and we’ll see tomorrow who would get the dubious honor of being the first eliminated couple of the All-Star season.

So who is ready for the new season?