Dancing with the Stars Season 15, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers

All in all, a great start to the All Star season!! A whole bunch of fantastic dancing, with few exceptions, no doubt. And yet…we still have a couple instances of really hinky scoring and other hijinks. So, we’ll give Shawn and Kirstie extremely bad songs for foxtrots, give Gilles and other men PERFECT songs and then we’ll be extra sure and not only pimp Emmett, but overscore him as well. I love Gilles and think he was overscored relative to the other couples, but Emmett?? I smell fish. I’ll just echo Courtney and add…Gilles works for ABC, and Emmett is a football player scoring high on MONDAY Night. The female football audience?? Yeah, that’s not suspicious at all. :::rolls eyes:::

But, after all my moaning….those scores are essentially irrelevant because the exactly wrong person was the low scorer and by a significant margin. Anyway…

The Judges Scores and Percentages

As you probably deduced all on your own, Pam and Tristan are in real trouble. The judges were absolutely right when they called her out on her lack of preparation – seems clear they are paying attention to studio time this season, like they have occasionally in the past, and it’s going to be noted if you don’t do well AND you weren’t putting in the time. It’s the All Star Season. It’s to be expected.

Anyway, what does Pam have to do in order to survive to dance again? Pray. And hope that someone else (Drew? Helio?) is completely forgotten. In terms of votes she needs to do ONE of the following in order to be safe:

-          Pam has to get 7,340 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie, OR;

-          She needs to get 9,050 more votes per million votes cast than Bristol, OR;

-          She needs to get 12,660 more votes per million votes cast than Joey, OR;

-          She needs to get 14,470 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR,

-          She needs to get 16,280 more votes per million votes cast than either Drew, Helio or Kelly, OR;

-          She needs to get 18,100 more votes per million votes cast than either Shawn or Apolo

I could go on but I won’t. You get the picture. The only one of these that I could see happening is Melissa or Helio…with an outside shot of Drew.  I don’t think that Pam has the juice to get past either Bristol or Kirstie….or Joey….but I’m going to say right now that Melissa and Helio could be surprises. If there is such a thing as a surprise elimination this season.

Anyway, let’s say that by some miracle (and crazy Tristan fans :-) ) Pam survives.  Kirstie is the next lowest scorer. In order to stay in the event that Pam gets past her, she would need the ONE of the following:

-          Kirstie  has to get 1,810 more votes per million votes cast than Bristol, OR;

-          She needs to get  5,430 more votes per million votes cast than Joey, OR;

-          She needs to get 7,240 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR,

-          She needs to get 9,050 more votes per million votes cast than either Drew, Helio or Kelly

Yeah, I think she can do all that easily. I don’t think she’s in trouble. Bristol? Needs ONE of the following to happen if both Kirstie and Bristol survive:

-          Bristol needs to get  3,620 more votes per million votes cast than Joey, OR;

-          She needs to get 5,430 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR,

-          She needs to get 7,240 more votes per million votes cast than either Drew, Helio or Kelly

This is where I’m less sure. I don’t know if Bristol has it this season like she did in her original season. These are the all stars!!

I could go on and on, but at the end of the day, I think Pam is going home.  If there’s a shock, I think it will be Melissa.   If there is a real surprise that I don’t discuss here, I’ll do a numbers wrap up. :-)