Dancing With The Stars Season 15: Las Vegas Odds Going Into Week 2
The odds makers are placing their bets again for who will win the Dancing With The Stars All Stars at Sports Bovada. As you can see, they’ve got Emmitt and Apolo neck in neck in first and second place. They’ve put Melissa and Bristol tied for last…
Emmitt Smith 3/2
Apolo Anton Ono 7/2
Gilles Marini 11/2
Helio Castroneves 11/2
Shawn Johnson 8/1
Joey Fatone 15/1
Kelly Monaco 20/1
Kirstie Alley 20/1
Sabrina Bryan 25/1
Drew Lachey 30/1
Bristol Palin 50/1
Melissa Rycroft 50/1
So, do the odds makers have it right or wrong?
In my opinion, they probably have it right on the top two currently, but, they are under estimating Shawn Johnson. She should be higher, while Helio should be lower. I also think they are totally wrong for putting Melissa Rycroft in last place. I think she should be placed in the middle somewhere. I also think Kelly is going to make a strong showing and should be placed higher. Let’s get Miss Heidi’s and Court’s thoughts and be sure to tell us what you think in the comment section too.
Heidi: Totally don’t buy Emmitt in the winning position. I don’t think he’s got that kind of juice. I still think this is going to come down to Apolo, Gilles and Shawn, with Apolo winning. That said…Gilles could find himself replaced with Emmitt if he doesn’t lighten up. While he is beautiful to look at, I’m not finding him charming or fun this season AT ALL. And as William Levy can tell you, good looks are only good for third place in a regular season. In this one?? Maybe not so much. Lucky for him he’s likely going to get some “help” since he’s a card carrying member of the ABC family. Literally. 
The bottom?? I’m thinking it should be Bristol and Drew, but the reality probably IS Drew and Melissa. If they keep doing a real bottom two, we’ll soon find out.
Courtney: I’m not convinced at this point that Emmitt is gonna walk away with that trophy – and definitely not with odds that good. I don’t think one good dance in week one is indicative of much right now, considering that most of the couples did pretty well – aside from Pam, no one really did terribly this week. I’m waiting for a dance like to jive to come along so we can really see what Emmitt’s made of – we know he’s got a great personality, now the question is: can he hang with the youngin’s? Because he is one of the older contestants this season, and like Kirstie, I think he may struggle with endurance. Still puzzled as to why they have Helio so high. I would put Apolo & Gilles at about even odds right now, but if Gilles’ whining about injuries, phone numbers, etc. continues, I would expect Apolo to begin to edge him out. And really & truly, at this point I’d put Drew at the bottom – because he clearly is lacking in the votes department, and I’m not so sure that’s going to improve in the coming week.
I actually agree with their top 2. As of now, Emmit and Apollo are the ones to beat but I think that its going to be a toss up between Shawn and Kelly for the third spot in the finale.
I agree with the top 3 but cannot understand why they’ve got Shawn behind Helio. And Courtney, you’re right on with your assessment of Gilles. If he doesn’t stop whining, he may not even get to the finals.
Seeing lots of Helio love, surprising not so much Apolo which makes me sad — I like him. Maybe cuz he’s rusty and they needs to do so many hours of practice. IMHO I did expect a much better cha cha cha from him, but Karina is saying his quickstep will be so much better—we’ll see
Last season, based on week #1, finals should have been Jaleel, Katherine, and Roshon. At least Katherine made it. It’s a long season to work through for them, and Emmitt, Shawn, Apolo, and Helio can surely have enough endurance….maybe even Melissa.
I hope they’re wrong about Melissa being at the bottom. I don’t know, I have a feeling that if her scores hold up to Sabrina’s, she could maybe beat her in votes. She obviously beat Drew in votes last week, so that could possibly hold up. I just don’t know about Bristol. I have no idea if she just beat DREW or if she beat a lot of people. It’s sort of driving me crazy. Now other than that…I just don’t know if Melissa could get past anyone else, barring her having ultra high scores and someone having ultra low scores, which I just don’t see happening. But I hope she can somehow survive.
I hope Emmitt doesn’t win, for the pure and simple fact that I dont want Cheryl to win. I feel sort of mean saying that, but I just want her off my screen. I’ve been over her for a while.
Violet, there are a few pros I feel that way about too, but Cheryl isn’t one of them. I love her enthusiasm and humility with Emmitt this season. He seems to bring out the best in her.
On my facebook page, lots of my NFL friends,ladies mostly and a few gents, want “every football player to win whenever on dwts”. These people are mostly Steelers, Patriots, Eagles, Jets, and Giants fans….but it doesn’t matter…it’s a football player. Many of them have multiple, multiple accounts and vote at home at night, and then again at work in the morning. Talk about serious … lol.
The only one I don’t want to win this season is Emmitt and that is mainly for Cheryl but I am also not a fan of NFL players always going far or winning because I still don’t think Hines or Emmitt were the best dancers in their seasons.
Sheery #3 Here some opinions I would count on;
Julianne Hough @juliannehough
Len was so wrong! Yay!!!!!!
Freaking OUT right now! @Apolo killed it! Damn you’ve gotten sexy boy… Glad you’ve got Karina!
nicholas kosovich @smoothchamp
@Karina_Smirnoff great job Karish:)
I have to admit (as much as I don’t want to. lol), that Cheryl’s attitude seems to be better for what we’ve seen of her in the premiere, but, the verdict is still out? I’m not convinced she’s made a big turnaround yet. But, I do love Emmitt.
Sheery, fascinating.
I can’t trust any odds that so miss who the obvious top 4 are. The top 4 are Shawn, Emmitt, Apollo, and Gilles. Quite frankly I find Apollo’s dancing to be VERY overrated. Sloppy posture and feet. Compare him to a male pro. He is cute and like able so that may be all he needs apparently.
Not buying one bit Helio being that high. I think he is 1 bad dance away from a boot.
I think both Kelly and Sabrina can make a run if they dance like they did week 1.
I think Kirstie and Bristol have the underdog factor and passionate support to take them further than they should. I wouldn’t be surprised to see both of them outlast Drew, Melissa, Joey, and Helio if their scores are close enough.
It’s still sooo early and a lot of these contestants can step their games up so who knows.
There are lots of serious fan groups voting…and I wager young girls voting for Shawn and Apolo win out over Emmitt any time. That’s the funny thing about this season. Tough to call. And most football fans are going to be watching…football.
I found Sabrina’s over-enthusiasm rather grating. Wouldn’t miss her much, but would like Louis to stay a bit longer. Nice to see him back. Maybe she’ll calm down and be a bit less irritating.
Maybe racing fans are big voters too and I don’t know, do Nascar fans carry over to Indy car in a case like this? Or would Nascar fans hate an Indy driver? (I hope they go for the Indy driver over the redneck woman)
Maybe Apolo and Shawn will be splitting a voting demographic?? (Personally I can’t decide who is my favorite and I love both their pros.)
After seeing how many people got more votes than Drew (if only just 1 or a few) I think, unfortunately, that he’s a short timer. Perhaps they can convince us their having fun while continuing to dance well and turn things around, but I just don’t buy that people thought they were safe and didn’t vote for them. I voted for them most heavily of my favorites because I saw them as vulnerable, the fan base thing and all.
I also don’t buy Emmitt winning this thing. I love, love his dancing, he is one of my all time favorite people to watch, but the personality he brings to the dance floor may not be enough this season. I’m actually not as enamored with him off the floor, in interviews. He’s a nice guy but sometimes I find him a little repetitive. Definitely not an enthusiastic talker. Which is why I am even more amazed when I see him shine on the floor where he is anything but boring.
I wouldn’t mind them winning but I don’t think he is the best bet right now. Still holding on to Apolo. I hope the odds are wrong on Melissa.
It is tough this season, but I do think Shawn will take it if she gets in the finale with 2 men (especially if one of them will not be Apollo), although I like all of the stars this season, and the only one I am not crazy about will not win anyway.
Vegas odds are vegas odds. Not dwts fan odds… =p
I think it’s very fair if we try to look through the eyes of a glamber… =p
After the first week, I still thinking that the top 3 will be Emmitt, Apolo and Shawn. Considering the dance ability and fan votes. Think Helio will be 4th place. Helinho and Shawn will grow for sure. My only concern is Emmitt and Gilles overscored. I still think that Gilles and Peta are very bland… I miss personality from this two. And she does do good choreographies.
I disagree with you, Carlos – I don’t think anyone is failing to “look through the eyes of the gambler”. If anything, I think we actually have a better idea (and a more logical thought process) than the odds makers.
Have to say that I love Emmitt. I like his calm demeanor and his dancing ability. I agree with Vogue that Cheryl seems to be more laid back. Just hoping this trend with her continues as long as they hang in there. I am still not excited about this season. Just cannot put my finger on why.
I am a die hard sports fan, so needless to say I voted for Apolo, Shawn, and Emmitt. Love the fact that none have training in the entertainment or music business, and are all so good on their own raw talent. This week , I decided not to vote for Shawn any more, because of her pro partner. I feel sad that he called her a chipmunk. I too was made fun of (in school)by bullies, and let me tell you ,it hurts. Sorry Shawn love you, and hope you do well, but no love or votes to your “pro”.
@#13 Jess:
There are some racing fans who cross all types of racing (e.g. Indy, NASCAR, Drag, Formula 1, Off-road, etc.) who if DWTS fans also might be inclined to vote for Helio. However, a large number of purely NASCAR fans wouldn’t know very much about him.
I’ve ofter wondered how well a NASCAR driver would do on DWTS, but their long seasons (36 weekly races per season plus some all star races) make it impossible to do so while active. Maybe Jeff Gordon will give it a shot when he retires. He is certainly competitive enough. And if Danica Patrick (the Go-Daddy girl) ever competed on DWTS, I think a lot of NASCAR fans that don’t like her would still vote for her because “she’s one of ours”!
I just want to say, right now, that people like Kevin’s girl appeared in the Cheesecake BEFORE she commented here.
Just FYI.
Um… do you mean she appeared in a comment thread under a previous Cheesecake post using another name?
Or… if not that, then she’s a cast member in disguise?
Or… I have no clue what you’re talking about, H.
LOL, can’t wait Heidi!!
I totally see this as Emmitt Smith possibly taking the whole thing. Week over week the top of the leader board, and based on the front runners best dances, the top spot in the odds is going to change.Next week I fully expect to see Apolo there because his best is the Quickstep. You can’t underestimate the appeal of Emmitt because When you do, the WOW factor becomes a surprise instead of an expectation, and when that happens people vote. The thing people were wondering is does he still have it? When he delivered he got a huge reaction. But I think top spot is not going to be dominated by any one team. It will be the team that makes it memorable who will win. Right now Emmitt and Cheryl have the upper hand in the nostalgia dept., until other teams figure it out and really bringtheirown personality into the dancing. As for Gilles, this guy always was whining in his season, Cheryl just made him suck it up, but if he continues with his little Emo needy act, he’s going to lose to guys who don’t worry and fret and take themselves too seriously. What we barely. Tolerate in female celebs…am I as good as Nicole? And crying, and I can’t do it nonsense will be ridiculed in a man.
LOL – what I’m saying is that I make a comment about rabid Shawn fans who take exception to even the most innocuous comments and who lack a sense of humor in the Cheesecake – and I made it BEFORE Kevin’s Girl came in here and proved me right.
I appreciate the validation, but I didn’t want anyone to think it was because of her. 
Although, she could be the same person I’m referring to, I just don’t know that for a fact.
ETA: Geez, I’m having issues today. In the cheesecake we will be posting tonight or tomorrow is where this comment is made by me. :::sigh:::
Although, now that you mention it, Kevin’s Girl has posted here with at least 7 different names… LOL, as I was saying….
What is up with Gilles? I don’t remember him being like this in his season, or have I just blanked it out? He was my favorite then and I thought he should’ve won. He just seems intense and serious and whiny now, what changed? The partnership?
Thanks for the clarification, Heidi, I get ya now!
I think Gilles, himself has changed, Buttercup. He was a little known actor on the scene way back when, but now he’s made a name for himself and I think he’s taking himself more seriously than before and the weight of his almost win seems pretty heavy on his shoulders. Just what I think, though.
I don’t think the partnership is Gilles’ problem. He’s been like this since Day 1 of rehearsals a month ago. I think it is his desperation to win, and it’s a huge turn-off. I, too, was rooting for Gilles in Season 8 and was excited to see him return this season, but no more. If you follow him on twitter, he’s unbearable. Just reeks of desperation, and is always complaining and whining. It’s like he’s a completely different person from the last time he was on the show.
He will probably still make the finals and I won’t count him out for the win, because I still think he’s who the producers want to win. They are all about him avenging his loss and in interviews even before this season, the judges have said he’s their favorite contestant ever. He’s also an ABC employee. So I firmly believe there will be a real push from TPTB for Gilles to win. But he’s certainly doing himself no favors. He needs to lighten up, and Fast!!!
Gilles was jus lie this in his season too, I just watched his jive, and he had some weird arms in some parts of the dance, when Carrie An criticized his arms in those parts od the dance, he said it was his shoulder fault, and then she said to him that he did stretch his arms in some parts of the dance even with the shoulder thing. You guys should watch this video, so annoying.
Could fame have went to his head? Ya never know.
Well it sounds like Gilles is having a lasting effect on everyone around him in and around rehearsals.
I’m not going to lie, I’m a big Gilles fan. I’m rooting for him and Peta to take the whole thing. The great thing about Gilles is that he has a great stage presence, and can deliver in terms of technique. He really does have it all. Apolo commands a similar respect. Propping Gilles isn’t the same as propping someone like William Levy. Gilles has and can absolutely deliver, that’s why his winning wouldn’t upset me.
Obviously mileage varies here. I think he and Peta have a great rapport, and he is taking it seriously. It is what it is, and and I can’t wait to see more from them.
I’d be okay with a few people winning, Emmitt isn’t one of them. His dancing isn’t as strong as some of the men and women. Personality should only take you so far.
I’m not the type to put much stock in what the Vegas odds makers say. I think they know much less about the nuances of each star, their pro partner, fan bases, etc than the well-educated DWTS viewer. For instance, they probably don’t have a clue that the cha cha is Emmitt’s best dance and just because he topped the leader board with it on week one doesn’t mean he’s going to take the whole season. (btw, my money is still on Shawn for the MBT)
I do wonder how much these odds makers know about the show. Do they just look at popularity, noteriety, and the weekly scoreboard? I don’t keep track of this sort of thing. Are they often right?
Interesting what you said about Kevin’s girl being in upcoming Cheesecake comments Heidi. It strikes me as funny that someone would withhold voted just because of a joke between a couple. I just didn’t want to start anything by commenting. Not that you are, just sayin . .
Shawn seems to getting along with Derek just fine.
As I say every single season, the producers don’t care who wins! I certainly don’t believe they want Gilles to win or Emmit to win or whatever the latest theory is. FWIW, most people who work on DWTS think that either Shawn or Apolo will win.
Kevin’s Girl isn’t specifically in the post, just people like her. I wrote the cheese before she posted here.
I’ve never believed they care who wins, so thanks.
I do think they want some to stay longer than others for ratings draws, but even that seems counterproductive.
I definitely think they want ratings draws to stick around, but they don’t necessarily know who the ratings draws are so I’m not sure they’d be that manipulative. They’ve definitely been surprised at some people being voted off like the Hoff – they thought he’d be very popular but obviously wasn’t. So who they think is going to draw viewers may not actually be the people drawing viewers.
The best thing they can do is just let the voters speak as to who they want around.
Ugh, I’m sick of athletes winning the show. I’d much rather see an underdog like Joey redeem himself against these previous winners.
Buttercup, do you think TPTB would be manipulative for ratings draws in “important” demographics? I may be the resident “conspiracy theory nut” around here, but I thought that there was a concerted effort on the part of the producers to trash Ralph Macchio, in order to keep Romeo, who would have drawn more of the young’uns to watch. It didn’t work out, but hey, they tried…
Overall, agree with you & PH – I don’t think they care who wins, but they care who (ratings/demographics draws) makes the finale.
I hope Melissa and Tony do a good jive, if so I will be voting for them. I like an underdog.
Don’t necessarily have to b the best dancing couple, but the couple w/the biggest voting fan base will win.
Oh yeah, smell that cheesecake in the oven. I can’t wait.
LOL PH that you were one step ahead with a jab at the Kevin’s Girl types. The obsessed fans who project their issues, fantasies and biases onto the couples just crack me up.
They are predicting Emmitt to win? I think that might be unlikely, although I love his charisma, smile, and fast, fancy feet. I think it’ll come down to Olympians Apolo and Shawn (hoping for Shawn to win) with Kelly 3rd. I think Drew might be going home this week. When he won his season, the other dancers weren’t that great,but that’s no longer the case, except for a couple of exceptions, so I don’t think he has much of a chance. I could be wrong, though.
For the 500th time, not necessarily the biggest voting fanbase will win. You also have to have the scores. That’s how this show works. If they all get perfect 30′s from here on out? Then yes, the biggest voting fanbase will win. But if someone like Bristol has the biggest voting fanbase (doubt it) gets a 15 while everyone else gets a 30? She ain’t likely to win.
Ooh cheesecake being made! Maybe that will add some excitement to this All Stars season!
After Drew posted a goofy picture of he and Anna, she retweeted it with “Ha. That’s right people-Im not only an “ice princess” “. I guess she’s heard what folks have been saying so maybe she’ll lighten up this week. Hope so b/c they sure need to get that chemistry going if they hope to stay around.
That’s very interesting to hear, mmc
And this is a preemptive strike: we are well aware that Gilles just spoiled his own jive song. Please don’t everybody post the same thing in rapid succession – we know, we have Twitter too. We’ve actually known since Wednesday. And for the record, his song is “DON’T Stop Me Now” by Queen, not “CAN’T Stop Me Now” as he tweeted. Poor Freddie Mercury is probably rolling over in his grave…
Courtney,
I don’t think I’ve made myself clear… (sometimes I think in portuguese and just try to translate… need to improve my english vocabulary… and grammar and orthography… =/)
what I was trying to say is that the gamblers are not “specialists” on DwtS, so we have to take these odds considering this.
I’ve always felt that fan bases can carry you or hurt you if you don’t have them. Case in point is last season: Melissa and Maks got as far as they did despite low scores and Roshon and Chelsie consistently being in the bottom two despite their high scores. Ironically they were both eliminated the same week.
As for this season, it appears that the folks who mostly watch DWTS are older, so celebs like Emmitt and Kirstie could be around for awhile, though I don’t expect Kirstie to be in the finals. I also don’t think Drew has the fangirl appeal that maybe Apolo or Gilles might have.
I agree with Violet. I don’t want Emmitt to win because I don’t want Cheryl to win. Leaving Cheryl out of it, I don’t think Emmitt will even be in the finals. Sabrina was too over the top for me and I don’t like Louis. He always has an attitude. People say Maks has one, which he does, but Louis is worse. The redemption factor will be brought up constantly but I don’t think she’s going to make it that far. I believe she will be out earlier than she was the last time. Drew and Anna should be worried. I think they’re going to be at the bottom again along with Bristol. If that’s the case, I’m hoping that Bristol goes, but I think it’s going to be like her last time on. She’s going to find herself in jeopardy and make it through to the next week over someone better. I don’t want to see that again, it wasn’t fun to watch before. Right now, I think Apollo/Karina and Shawn/Derek are the final two.
Sure would be interesting to see how far Mark or Derek could take Sabrina or Melissa.
Didn’t we already see how far Mark took Sabrina? Just sayin’…
Personally I think the final three will be:
Apolo & Karina — they are fabulous together ( I almost think better than him and Julianne and that’s after just one dance !)
Shawn & Derek — they are great together and with his excellent choreography skills and Shawn’s ability as a dancer and gymnast they are going to be hard to beat.
And finally ……. Joey & Kym!! You can never count kym out of a competition. When she has a great partner that is dedicated and has ability she can really come up with amazing routines and just overall looks for a performance. (With the exception of a couple of her partners like Jaleel!! Even my grandmother thought he was gross! ) plus if you watch all of the freestyles she has choreographed they seem to all be extremely creative and stand out from others in almost every season! I really think they can win or at least make it to the final!
Heather – I hope you’re right! That would be the most entertaining finale for me.
It’s true the odds-makers don’t have the same expertise on dancing as they do for the sports they usually make the odds for. Unfortunately, I think they might be right about Emmitt. I like him, but I personally don’t think he should be in the final three. I fear he will be over more deserving dancers, however. If he continues to be overscored and over-praised by the judges, in combinantion with the football fan support, he could get to the finals. Carrie-Ann always has a male celeb each year that she absolutely drools over and overscores each week, and it looks like that will be Emmitt this year.
And football fans are a huge voting contigent. It doesn’t matter if DWTS is up against football, you don’t have to actually watch the show to vote. Last year, people in our Wisconsin office were passing around Donald Driver’s voting phone number to everyone, and everyone was voting. Including men who have never watched and never will watch DWTS. They just wanted the guy from their team to win. Football fans are beyond fanatical in some areas of the country.
Regarding comments that Anna is too mean or an ‘ice princess’, I disagree. I find it hilarious when she browbeats her celeb. My husband loves her for when she asked a whining Jerry Rice if his football coaches fed him milk and cookies when he complained she was too hard on him. He told me to call him in to watch (he was watching football) when she was on and he was thrilled she was in top form. I also called him in to see Kym’s fantastic, formfitting outfit. He thinks she has the best body of all the dancers (he’s a boob man), so he was quite thrilled with how that outfit showed them off. Personally I’d rather have a body like Karina’s, but Kym definitely has the best boobs trophy.
If Shawn and Derek got to the finals, it is going to be hard to beat then with the freestyle. I don`t see Cheryl and Emmitt or Karina and Apolo having a better freestyle than Shawn,
After one week, I’m certainly not calling it for Emmitt. Sure CURRENT football players may have big fanbases (not all win)…but they haven’t been up against two extremely popular Olympic athletes, a very good dancer who is a fan favorite (Gilles), a Kirstie, a Joey AND a Bristol. There is no such thing as a sure thing this season.
I don’t get all the Emmitt aka “twinkletoes” love. Didn’t have before and I don’t have it now. I hope he doesn’t make the final 3.
I agree with Sandy. I like Emmitt as a person, but there’s no way he deserves to be in the finals in an all-star season. On the other hand, I’m worried that he might still be able to pull in a lot of votes from Cowboys Nation. Texans are crazy-loyal when it comes to the Cowboys and as NancyM says, you don’t have to watch the show to get out your cell and vote.
@Carlos, your English is fine! So are you from Portugal and speak Portuguese or are you a Brazilian who speaks Portuguese? Just want to be sure for Chelsie, since this is all new to her *LOL*