DWTS Season 15, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers

Crack is wack…and BACK in the ballroom.  Everything Courtney said about the scoring – I said much the same. Overly kind to some couples, desperately trying to find fault with others.  What it boiled down to was a whole bunch of over scoring combined with some “just right” scoring. I don’t think anyone was underscored, really, but many were way too high. Including Bristol and Kirstie, despite them being at the bottom of the leader board.  It’s this kind of scoring that always leads to shocking eliminations. Do I really think that either Bristol or Kirstie will go home this week?  Read on…

The Judges Scores and Percentages

This is why this season is so tough – even with a pretty good break between Bristol and the rest, there is NO guarantee that she’s going home like there would be in a normal season. Like it or not, Bristol is on the show for a reason. Do I think she has a HUGE fanbase? Well, it’s never truly been tested. It will be tonight, to a degree. Now, I think Kelly and Drew both are in serious danger. HOWEVER, last week Bristol only needed 7,200 more votes per million votes cast than Drew in order for him to land in the bottom two. This week is a different story and will be a bit more of a test of her fanbase. What does Bristol need to have happen in order to stick around for another week? She needs at least ONE of the following things to happen:

–          Bristol needs 10,900 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie, OR;

–          Bristol needs 14,500 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, OR;

–          Bristol needs 16,310 more votes per million votes cast than Drew OR Joey OR Emmett, OR;

–          Bristol needs 18,120 more votes per million votes cast than Helio, OR;

–          Bristol needs 19,930 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

–          Bristol needs 23,550 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo

I don’t believe that Bristol can get past Kirstie. But what about Kelly or Drew?? That’s the question.  Helio and Melissa are two other people we were wondering about – if they had what it takes to last this season.  I think they are both safe this week; even if Bristol is killing it in votes, I don’t think that Kelly or Drew are going to close the gap on them.  I also feel relatively sure that Joey and Emmett are safe, for obvious reasons.

What if Bristol vaults her way out of the bottom two?? Next on the hit list is Kirstie. What does she need to do to stick? Just be Kirstie. :-) I think she beats Kelly handily. Let’s look and see what Kirstie needs. She needs ONE of the following to happen to be safe:

–          Kirstie needs for Bristol to not cover the spread, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 3,625 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 5,435 more votes per million votes cast than Drew OR Joey OR Emmett, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 7,250 more votes per million votes cast than Helio, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 9,060 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 12,685 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo

–          Kirstie needs  14,500 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn

I think Kirstie can handle those votes with relative ease, at least over Kelly and Drew. Speaking of Kelly – I feel like she is in some danger here. Not at the bottom but those that ARE at the bottom are potential power houses in terms of voting.  What does she need in order to stick around??  Kelly needs ONE of the following to happen:

–          Kelly needs either Bristol or Kirstie to not cover the spread, OR;

–          Kelly needs 1,815 more votes per million votes cast than Drew OR Joey OR Emmett, OR;

–          Kelly needs 3,625 more votes per million votes cast than Helio, OR;

–          Kelly needs 5,435 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

–          Kelly needs 9,060 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo

–          Kelly needs  10,900 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn

I think Kirstie is going to cover the spread, but I’m not convinced that Bristol will. I find Kelly and Val to be very charming – I like them a lot. More than I like Drew. I couldn’t tell you what Drew did last night, but I can tell you what Kelly did.  Right now, I’m leaning toward Kelly easily beating Drew – that’s a very small margin.

My gut, based on these numbers, tells me that the bottom two are going to be Drew and Bristol and that Bristol is going to go home. But I sure can’t hang my hat on it this season. Entirely possible that it’s Bristol and Kelly and Bristol goes home. I think if someone other than Bristol is going home, it’s going to be Drew.

If Bristol stays out of the bottom two??  Well, we’ll have to have a separate post to discuss that. :-D