DWTS Season 15, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers
Crack is wack…and BACK in the ballroom. Everything Courtney said about the scoring – I said much the same. Overly kind to some couples, desperately trying to find fault with others. What it boiled down to was a whole bunch of over scoring combined with some “just right” scoring. I don’t think anyone was underscored, really, but many were way too high. Including Bristol and Kirstie, despite them being at the bottom of the leader board. It’s this kind of scoring that always leads to shocking eliminations. Do I really think that either Bristol or Kirstie will go home this week? Read on…
The Judges Scores and Percentages
This is why this season is so tough – even with a pretty good break between Bristol and the rest, there is NO guarantee that she’s going home like there would be in a normal season. Like it or not, Bristol is on the show for a reason. Do I think she has a HUGE fanbase? Well, it’s never truly been tested. It will be tonight, to a degree. Now, I think Kelly and Drew both are in serious danger. HOWEVER, last week Bristol only needed 7,200 more votes per million votes cast than Drew in order for him to land in the bottom two. This week is a different story and will be a bit more of a test of her fanbase. What does Bristol need to have happen in order to stick around for another week? She needs at least ONE of the following things to happen:
– Bristol needs 10,900 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie, OR;
– Bristol needs 14,500 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, OR;
– Bristol needs 16,310 more votes per million votes cast than Drew OR Joey OR Emmett, OR;
– Bristol needs 18,120 more votes per million votes cast than Helio, OR;
– Bristol needs 19,930 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;
– Bristol needs 23,550 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo
I don’t believe that Bristol can get past Kirstie. But what about Kelly or Drew?? That’s the question. Helio and Melissa are two other people we were wondering about – if they had what it takes to last this season. I think they are both safe this week; even if Bristol is killing it in votes, I don’t think that Kelly or Drew are going to close the gap on them. I also feel relatively sure that Joey and Emmett are safe, for obvious reasons.
What if Bristol vaults her way out of the bottom two?? Next on the hit list is Kirstie. What does she need to do to stick? Just be Kirstie. 🙂 I think she beats Kelly handily. Let’s look and see what Kirstie needs. She needs ONE of the following to happen to be safe:
– Kirstie needs for Bristol to not cover the spread, OR;
– Kirstie needs 3,625 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, OR;
– Kirstie needs 5,435 more votes per million votes cast than Drew OR Joey OR Emmett, OR;
– Kirstie needs 7,250 more votes per million votes cast than Helio, OR;
– Kirstie needs 9,060 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;
– Kirstie needs 12,685 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo
– Kirstie needs 14,500 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn
I think Kirstie can handle those votes with relative ease, at least over Kelly and Drew. Speaking of Kelly – I feel like she is in some danger here. Not at the bottom but those that ARE at the bottom are potential power houses in terms of voting. What does she need in order to stick around?? Kelly needs ONE of the following to happen:
– Kelly needs either Bristol or Kirstie to not cover the spread, OR;
– Kelly needs 1,815 more votes per million votes cast than Drew OR Joey OR Emmett, OR;
– Kelly needs 3,625 more votes per million votes cast than Helio, OR;
– Kelly needs 5,435 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;
– Kelly needs 9,060 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo
– Kelly needs 10,900 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn
I think Kirstie is going to cover the spread, but I’m not convinced that Bristol will. I find Kelly and Val to be very charming – I like them a lot. More than I like Drew. I couldn’t tell you what Drew did last night, but I can tell you what Kelly did. Right now, I’m leaning toward Kelly easily beating Drew – that’s a very small margin.
My gut, based on these numbers, tells me that the bottom two are going to be Drew and Bristol and that Bristol is going to go home. But I sure can’t hang my hat on it this season. Entirely possible that it’s Bristol and Kelly and Bristol goes home. I think if someone other than Bristol is going home, it’s going to be Drew.
If Bristol stays out of the bottom two?? Well, we’ll have to have a separate post to discuss that. 😀
Thanks Heidi! These are the posts I look forward to the most. 🙂
Wow, Bristol is closer to surviving tonight than I would have thought. She’s uncomfortably close to Kirstie, Kelly, Drew, Joey and Emmett. With her voting block, I wonder if she’ll manage to survive another week?! Scary thought.
I think Bristol is going home too and rightfully so. I don’t think she has the fan base she did the first time she danced to pull her through. That dance was just awful and she’s not even in the same league as the others. Last week there was an improvement in her dancing. Last night, she took a step back.
I hope Bristol goes home, I did not enjoy her dance at all. Or her package.
Evaine, DITTO!!
I have been waiting for this all day. I LOVE the numbers posts, Heidi, thank you. Maybe it is because math is well, not my strong suit, and I need it explained to me. 🙂
I hope that you are right and that Bristol goes. If she somehow stays out of the bottom two this week…well, that will make me very, very scared for what her actual placement this season will be…
Fingers crossed!!
Oh lawd I am nervous now. *sigh* Back to work I go. Hope Kelly STAYS. Bottom 2? Ok as long as she stays 🙂
Heidi – thank you for these numbers posts! I think you’re spot-on. I hope Bristol is going home, but I fear it will be Drew or Kelly… 🙁
Thanks, PH! Ditto, Sally!
I love these posts and always wait for them on Tuesdays! It’s pretty tight, that’s for sure.
I agree, that at least this week, Kirstie can cover the spread, and it is entirely possible that Bristol can too. If Bristol doesn’t go, then I think it will be Drew or Kelly. But wow. Close.
Thanks for this…sure hope you’re right!
I hope its bye-bye to Bristol.
I hope I’m wrong!
So this week we got 12 votes per account. Let’s take that number 3624 votes per million… that’s 302 accounts. A power voter does that easy, I think.
I find it all fascinating. 🙂
I fear that if we can’t get rid of Bristol now, it’s gonna be a long while till we do and she’ll continue to rob people much better than her. Getting to the finals while knocking Brandy out last time was the last straw for me. Let’s also add that she’s a homophobic, narrowminded bad mom who teaches her son the same profanity and hate and it’s really a struggle to have any sight of her.
Plus, she’s a sucky dancer.
Just hope Bristol goes…
Thanks, Heidi…I hope you’re right, and we say a fond farewell to Miss Palin. I want Kelly to stay.
Honestly, if it was truly base on performances then Kirstie or Bristol should be going home, but they’ve both got the underdog factor that will keep them in and I think they’ll both survive another week.
However, as with how things have gone down in past, I think it’s gonna be someone who’s in the middle of the pack who will be leaving tonight. I could see either Drew, Kelly, Joey, Melissa, or Helio going. The only one I don’t see going from the middle of the pack is Emmitt due his massive football fanbase.
Just basing my opinion how the cookie has crumbled during past seasons.
Oh lord, let it be Bristol. That quickstep would be bizarre and probably scored lower in a regular season, and just about everyone else’s would be 8’s, 9’s, 10’s.
I’m okay with losing people like Drew early on, but not to Bristol. That would be disappointing.
Some people really have 300+ accounts? Wow! I have nowhere near the patience to register that many, much less actually vote with them.
Ouch, this confirms why I’ve felt nervous for Kelly ever since last night. The scores are too close and those bottom two have such a following. Hoping justice will prevail and we say goodbye to the redneck woman tonight.
If the “Dance Fairy” is alive and well, she’ll grant my wish and Bristol will be gone tonight.
@MMC–I had the same thought! Hats off to those fans, but I couldn’t do it.
Mark and Bristol should be eliminated tonight. Her dancing was substandard to all of the other couples last night. Let’s not forget though, on an obvious elimination night for Bristol in her last season Bristol was saved by the Tea Party devil dialers and a better dancer, Audrina Patridge, was eliminated. After that season ABC changed the voting process to supposedly eliminate the possibility of auto-dialers effecting the vote again. Did Sara’s minions find a way around the ABC safe guards? Stay tuned! We’ll find out tonight.
@MMC – If I recall, there was on fan who *claimed* (take it with the appropriate grains of salt) to have 7,000 verified accounts… 😯
I am confident that Bristol will be in the bottom two; however I’m unsure about whether or not she’ll be voted out. As someone who’s been splitting her votes between Kelly and Drew, I’m not liking the way tonight’s looking. Having been from Ohio, I understand why Drew doesn’t want to go back ;). Personally if it had to be one of them I’d rather it be Drew, because the clip packages would be far less entertaining without Kelly.
Is it too farfetched to hope the bottom two is Melissa and Bristol, with Bristol leaving?
I really think Kelly will *probably* be ok tonight – seems like the soap viewer contingent is really rallying around her. Ditto for Emmitt & Kirstie – I have a feeling they’re getting PLENTY of votes.
I honestly think it’s going to come down to Bristol & Drew in the bottom 2 once more – and the pessimist in me is saying that it’s Drew that’s going to be leaving us 🙁 My general observation is that celebs that end up in the bottom 2 don’t end up there by accident – it’s more likely the result of them not having much of a voting fanbase to begin with, rather than their fans just getting complacent & not voting. So I’m fully expecting Drew to end up there again tonight. But for once, I think we’ll actually get to see what Bristol’s storied fanbase is really made of – so far, they’ve been able to hide behind the fact that she stayed so long in season 11, and never really needed a ton of votes in order to stay. Tonight, they actually have a decent margin to overcome. Can they do it? Who knows.
Hmmm…maybe I should dig up Heidi’s old numbers post that explains how Bristol stuck around so long…
Kirstie(who incidentally looked like a drag queen last night)and Bristol, are by far the weakest dancers. I don’t think Kirstie will go home. I’m not sure about Bristol. I agree about Drew. I don’t think they care if he sticks around or not.
I wonder if they’ll continue to announce the bottom 2 as opposed to just “in jeopardy”
It’s crystal clear that the Drew/Anna combo isn’t going to be in contention this season, as I’d hoped. So might as well sacrifice them to the cause of learning more about Bristol’s “amazing” fanbase. If Drew goes, it’ll be an ugly truth, but I’d rather face the truth than always be worrying about the unknown.
On a positive note, I hope we discover Bristol’s fanbase isn’t “all that” after all and the Redneck Woman is sent packing tonight.
In a fair world, Bristol would indeed be going home tonight
In a fair world, Kirstie would not have gotten only one point shy of Shawn’s score last night
In a fair world, Apolo would be at the top of the leader board after that great Quickstep
But we don’t live in a fair world. Sigh.
And while I’m venting ….. I so wanted Anna & Drew to rock. Another big Sigh.
Linde, there are 4 points separating Shawn and Kirstie, so in this case, the world is fairer than you might think! ;).
Just re-read the Bristol numbers post Courtney mentioned (“The Myth of Bristol”) and saw something I hadn’t processed before. The same margin is easier to beat early in the season vs. later. Evaine mentioned this too when she pointed out we get 12 votes this week – easier to make up the same margin now than in Week 9 with only 4 votes. Anywho, the post said that Bristol covered margins up to ~1.9%. She may not last as long this season d/t other bigger fan bases, but she could bump a few more people if she hasn’t lost too many voters. *sigh*
Its sad thinking that Drew and Anna could be at the bottom again even though they had better chemistry and energy this week than last. If I had it my way the bottom two would be Bristol and Kirstie or Joey with Bristol going home.
As much as I have liked Bristol a lot more than I thought I would and her dancing is significantly better than in season 11, the truth is that she is not as good as the other contestants. I say Joey in the bottom two because that could wake them up and make them start to focus on his technique. He has so much potential to be really great in the competition but he is putting too much emphasis on entertaining.
Oh my god. This is EXACTLY why I am not watching this season. Bristol Palin is a joke. Why in the world would they ask her back on the show?! Seriously, does she belong on an All Star show? She didn’t deserve to get as far as ahe got the first season she was on. Can’t stand her frickin attitude, can’t stand her stomping around and calling it dancing, and can’t stand her awful plastic surgery. I don’t need this every week. I’ll watch the dancers that I like on YouTube and read this blog, but I am not going to watch the show as long as that ridiculous, uncoordinated brat is on.
I feel much better getting that off my chest. 🙂
oh Yay Megge, I checked my notes and you’re right! whew, my faith in the world has been restored
Thanks for the work, Heidi! I always look forward to this post. Thank you very much, it is definetely appreciated!!
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Uhhhhhhh ohhhhhhhhh.
Bristol danced 2nd which is the most vulnerable spot to dance in. She got the lowest score by 3 pts
And she still got over 16,000 more votes than Joey and even more impressive 18,000 more fans than Helio. Insane.
Both Kirstie and Bristol are gonna have some staying power on this season. The boys outside of Apollo, Emmitt, and Gilles have all show severe weakness in fan base. My guess is Shawn, Apollo, and Emmitt are taking most of the fans votes so die hard fan bases like Kirstie/Maks and Bristol/Mark could be swamping the middle of the packers.
I think Drew being in the bottom 2 hurt Joey big time.
For the record I thought Joey sucked last night and was grossly over scored by the judges. Not sad to see him go.
Oh dear. Guess we will be seeing that post from Heidi after all on how Bristol stayed out of the bottom 2.
Are we sure that Tom/Brooke mean something different when they say “in jeopardy” versus “bottom 2”? If I recall correctly, Tom/Brooke sometimes used the phrase “bottom 2” in past seasons without necessarily meaning that both couples were necessarily those with the lowest 2 combined judges’ scores and voting. I assume they did that to increase suspense, or to get a low-vote couple’s fan base going. What is the general consensus on this?
Oh for God’s sake. When the hosts say, “This is the bottom two.”, then it’s the freakin’ bottom two! If they say in jeopardy, it means maybe near the bottom and maybe not. HOW many times does it need to be repeated?
LOL Evaine. Welcome to my world. 😉
*tosses glitter and shares cocktails*
[…] you might remember from my “Dancing by the Numbers” post for Week 2, Joey was tied for 7th place with Drew and Emmitt. For Drew, who had been in the bottom two the […]
I cannot believe that Bristol is still on the show. She is such an awful dancer she should have been the first to go. Even I, in my advanced age, could do better.
Loved Kelly and Val’s chemistry last nite!!!