DWTS All Stars Week 2 – A Dancing by the Numbers Retrospective
So, lots of surprise and shock that Joey was eliminated this past week on DWTS. How could that happen, when three women had lower scores than him and he was such a charmer?? Well, there are lots of theories – I didn’t even really consider him as an option for elimination, but that’s what’s crazy about this season. So, let’s explore how that might have happened. There are a number of possible reasons, but first we’ll go over the “How did it happen” as opposed to the “Why”.
As you might remember from my “Dancing by the Numbers” post for Week 2, Joey was tied for 7th place with Drew and Emmitt. For Drew, who had been in the bottom two the previous week, to stick around, all he had to do was get ONE more vote per million votes cast than Joey, and voila! He’s safe. Same for Emmitt. Clearly, that happened.
But how did Helio end up in the bottom over the previously at-risk Drew? Drew had to have gotten at least 1,812 more votes per million votes cast than Helio. What else?? Well, ALL of the following had to happen for Helio to land in the bottom two:
– Bristol got at least 18,116 more votes per million votes cast than Helio, AND;
– Kirstie got at least 7,246 more votes per million votes cast than Helio, AND;
– Kelly got at least 3,623 more votes per million votes cast than Helio, AND;
– Drew and Emmitt both got at least 1,811 more votes per million votes cast than Helio.
Now, I had never believed that Helio was in the running for the MBT. I and others also said that he was a potential early exit. But Joey?? That was rather surprising. ALL of the following had to happen for Joey to be eliminated:
– Bristol got at least 16,304 more votes per million votes cast than Joey, AND;
– Kirstie got at least 5,435 more votes per million votes cast than Joey, AND;
– Kelly got at least 1,812 more votes per million votes cast than Joey, AND;
– Drew and Emmitt both got at least 1 more vote per million votes cast than Joey, AND;
– Joey didn’t cover the spread between him and Helio.
Kirstie and Kelly needed relatively small numbers of votes to stay over both Joey and Helio, as did Drew and Emmitt, so I guess those aren’t that surprising in a season like this. But lots of people have been screaming about Bristol. Yes, Bristol is a crap dancer on her best days. But she does have her fans – and really, now many power voters do you need if everyone else is splitting all their votes between the men?? I wager, not that many. But I digress.
Is what Bristol got surprising? Not in retrospect. If you look back at the DBTN posts for Season 11, you’ll see that it’s not the first time that Bristol has gotten those votes. The other times?
– She had to get 17,600 more votes per million votes cast than Brandy for Brandy to go home.
– She had to get 11,000 more votes per million votes cast than Rick Fox for him to go.
– She had to get 19,400 more votes per million votes cast than Audrina for her to go home.
But that last one doesn’t really count. It’s clear that EVERYONE was getting more votes than Audrina was, as Kurt got a whopping 48,300 more votes per million votes cast than she did and he went home two weeks later. That’s why it’s important to remember that it’s not just Bristol or Kurt or whoever getting tons of votes…it’s also the evictee possibly not getting votes at all. Not saying that’s true for Joey or Helio, but there are a lot of good men on this season and there could be vote splitting going on, lowering all the men’s totals by a just enough. It’s also important to remember that, while those numbers sound big they only amount to 1.63 percent of the vote in Bristol over Joey. For Kirstie it’s much smaller – only 0.54% of the vote was the margin between her and Joey. That’s tiny.
Speaking of Kirstie – she was only at the bottom of the leader board in her original season TWICE. In week 7 she tied for last with Romeo and she was alone at the bottom in Week 10. She’s never really been tested and she’s not being tested now. A small cushion from the judges and perceived popularity and she sticks around. Jury is out on how long that will last. It depends on how vested the judges are in keeping her. You might remember on her season the judges were pretty set against Ralph – and he got “ralphed” which benefitted Kirstie tremendously.
So, what’s the deal here? Well, neither Bristol nor Kirstie are invincible. Bristol couldn’t get past Kyle to take higher than third place and she only needed 18,072 more votes per million votes cast. Kyle was clearly more popular than her and she couldn’t cover the spread. Kirstie was a slightly different story, she got second place and beat out a clearly better dancer, but one who was much less well known. Plus Kirstie fits squarely in the demo of this show. Kirstie needed 1.91% more of the vote than Chelsea Kane and she got it. She needed the same amount to beat Hines and didn’t get it. So, there are limits to both women – we just don’t know what they are yet in this instance.
So that’s the “how”. What about the why? Well, I have a few theories. One I already mentioned – vote splitting. This is a season with a LOT of favorites, so it’s not unreasonable to assume that some voters are throwing their votes around to a few different dancers. But if Bristol and Kirstie fans are devoted and vote like insane people? They can last. I do think there is a limit on how long though.
Another thing? The differences in the margins are just too small. As usual, the judges are too kind to some dancers (Kirstie, Bristol) and are too hard on other dancers (Apolo). If that continues, they will continue to be surprised by who gets eliminated. It’s the all star season! They are scoring Shawn and Apolo like it’s All Stars, but Kirstie and Bristol like it’s a regular season. Len tells Shawn that her dance was “just enough” that he wants more. Seriously?? They all presumably docked Bristol’s dance for breaking the rules and she got 6.5, 6 and 6.5 – so if they hadn’t broken hold, in Len’s book Bristol would have only been ONE point below Shawn and about the same for Apolo?? In WHAT UNIVERSE is Bristol only a point away from Shawn and Apolo?? :::sigh:::
Of course, another possibility is that Drew, Joey and Helio just aren’t as popular as the rest of the guys and that those guys are getting the lion’s share of the male votes, leaving the way clear for Kirstie and Bristol…and Kelly, for that matter. The fact that Drew was in the bottom in week 1 when Pam went home, then Helio was in the bottom two when Joey went home could indicate that those people – Pam, Joey, Helio and Drew are the bottom tier of celebs in terms of popularity.
There are probably a million other theories, including that Bristol and Kirstie are just that popular, but I’m tired and it’s Saturday night. 🙂 Tuesday is a double elimination. Something tells me that we’ll find out just who’s got the juice…and who doesn’t.
Wow, what a freaking awesome summary of the numbers – I loved it! Thank you!
This does help me understand how it might not be huge power fan voting for Kirstie and Bristol that are keeping them in it, tho I still think that’s a possibility for at least one of them. However, it’s good to know there are other possible explanations.
Thank you, I was wondering about this Tuesday night!
Thank you very much, Princess ; ) The effects of the judges over & possibly underscoring scares me even more this season! I have a feeling that I’ll be going back & forth between holding my breath & screaming at the T.V. this week lol! A question for you- Do you think that the power voters have more power in terms of voting this season as compared to other seasons? ( Not sure that there’s really a way to know for sure, so what do you think?) Again, thanks for this post!! 🙂
That’s impossible to say, Maizie. I couldn’t even guess.
Wow thanks Heidi – so interesting and I actually better understand (other than judges scores) how Joey going home happened.
I do agree with you about the splitting of the men votes.
I do get so upset about the judging of some celebs as All stars and some as a regular season (as you have noted) and if that continues it could be scary for some of the couples sitting towards the top.
Again, thanks for all the work you do on this site to make it so enjoyable and informative.
Thanks for this post! I always enjoy reading your numbers posts. This season is way more unpredictable than I expected. Anna’s comparison is right on, this all star season is like The Hunger Games.
I agree that the scoring scale seems to be different between couples, and it drives me crazy. I think the judges need to look at PH’s numbers posts, so they see what happens when they do that.
I’m wondering what PH and Courtney think that the spread should have been if the judges had been scoring everyone on the same scale. I agree that it should have been more, but you guys usually don’t post any specific numbers, so am just curious.
This may not be the best week for Derek to break the rules. That could turn a 26/27 quickstep into 23/24. 😮 They probably get a lot of votes, but that’s the danger zone this season.
That was just awesome Miss. Thanks! I loved it and it makes more sense now why Joey went home.
Ahhhhh …. I needed that.
Excellent. Thank you, PH
Why are you so surprised Joey left? I had him gone after his dance if Bristol was still pulling in votes. The judges ripped his technique and posture apart and than gave him a very favorable score of 7.5 because of his “performance” and entertainment value. Another case where the hyopocrisy of the judges own words comes back to bite the contestant they favor. I thought Kirstie’s technically flawed but French style performance based Jive was even more entertaining than Joey’s standard Quickstep performance to an old style song. She didn’t get his scores. Bristol’s quickstep was a mess but also entertaining if you like mini trainwreck and earned a deserved 6. But even Joey was surprised he got the 7.5’s. That score didn’t match what the judges said to him and the audience could pick up on that.
And let’s face it. NSYNC is soooooooo 2000. All the washed up boy band vote probably rallied to Drew after his bottom 2 appearance.
I also think that right now Shawn, Apollo, and Emmitt are the ones who are getting most of the audience. The strictly good dancer voters are probably going for Sabrina and Gilles but one bad dance may make them vulnerable if they are not connecting with viewers. Right now I think Sabrina is likely connecting more than Gilles is believe it or not. Kirstie/Bristol are getting their die hard supporters. And in a divided field right now that could be enough. I think Kelly has a loyal fanbase and her chemistry with Val is probably helping them.
I really can’t imagine there’s a lot of motivation to pick up the phone for Joey, Drew, Helio, and likely Melissa right now. That’s been proven by the first 3 already and I think Melissa isn’t that far off. They don’t have huge fan bases, are not really standing out, and are likely not first tier voting options.
The show is only getting about 12 million viewers I read. That is shockingly low. So there’s not that many voters as there used to be so pure passion will win out.
I think another factor not mentioned here is the popularity of some of the pros. Admit it or not, Kirstie remains not only because of her likeability but because women love Maks. Women want to see Maks dance every week. The same can now be said for Val. Kelly is a better dancer because of Val and women want to see Val dance. He and Maks are excellent dancers and easy on the eyes. The chemistry between Kelly and Val will carry them as well. Just like the chemistry between Erin and Maks that took them to the finals. Helio, on the other hand, won his season in part because of Julianne. He was also likeable and charismatic. There are just too many other likeable and charismatic former champions this All Star season. The fan base is important but who you are paired with can help you win in any given season. It will likely be the same for All Stars.
I think it was pretty apparent that the judges are evening the playing field with scores when during the results show last week, they showed a clip of the judges commenting on Apolo & Karina’s quickstep and Bruno said “briliant” and Len had said “gold medal” and then they both gave them 8’s!!!
Vote splitting is dangerous, people! Pick a celeb and support them 100%
So true Jim. I’ve been splitting my votes so far every week because I love several of them. I need to make up my mind soon and just go with one (OMG, I can’t. this is hard,..I can’t choose just one. *cries* 😯 )
We know all about the popularity of the pros, Susan, and just because you assert that it’s because of Maks and Val doesn’t mean I agree. I think they play a small part. More so Val this season because of his cute crush on Kelly. But Kelly and Kirstie have their own fanbases that likely outstrip Maks and Val by miles.
Oh good for you, Andrea. :::rolls eyes::: You are so much smarter than the rest of us. None of this has anything to do with YOUR preference for Kirstie, right?
Yes, that was sarcasm, in case you were wondering. Some people want know know how the numbers fell out. If you don’t need that, you’re free to read elsewhere.
“Shockingly low” ratings?? Guess what, from what I can tell from looking at the overnights through the week, it’s the number 3 or 4 show of the week in total viewers. It’s statistically tied with the Voice and got beat by Big Bang Theory and Football…and possibly NCIS, can’t remember. Yes, it got beat in the demographic – but it ALWAYS gets beat in the demographic. All shows are down, for the 500th time – except football. That’s the only thing that’s anywhere close to 20 million viewers.
As for how that impacts the voting – that is pure speculation. It’s still a game of percentages and Bristol only needed 1.6%.
Debby, you have to remember that when Apolo danced, Sabrina, Shawn and Gilles hadn’t danced yet – they may have thought at that moment that that would be the high score of the night.
I’m with Vogue #15 cry cry, how can I choose just one right now? Wasn’t Joey better off with *some* of my votes. Oh, I guess not. I guess I’d better decide soon who I want to WIN, not just who all I’d like to see stick around until near the end.