DWTS All Stars, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers
Anyone else find it somewhat (ok, not at all) coincidental that the two women likely in the most trouble with voters were also at the top of the leaderboard, yet had dances that were not even close to tied for the best of the night?? Don’t get me wrong, I like both Melissa and Kelly very much, but even with docked points for breaking the rules, Shawn and Apolo belong at the top of the leaderboard. The only thing that comes to my mind is that they are doing fine in votes, and Melissa and Kelly both need protection from Kirstie and Bristol. Why do they warrant protection and Drew and Helio don’t?? Well…Drew and Helio don’t work for ABC. Melissa and Kelly (and Gilles) both do work for ABC. There are no coincidences. Sure, Apolo and Shawn are likely fine – but it chaps my ass that for two weeks in a row Apolo has gotten screwed and this week Shawn joins him. There is no way – no way – that either Melissa or Kelly deserve to be a full point and a half ahead of Apolo. I say, give them each a 25.5 or 26, Apolo a 27 or 28 and Shawn a 27 (only because she broke the rules).
Note to Mark, Louis and Maks – Derek is the example that you all should look to when being chastised for breaking the rules. All Derek and Shawn wanted from Len was the admission that he liked the dance very much. That is telling. They both knew full well they were going to be docked – the only question was by how much. I’m still in awe of how much air Derek got when doing the jump split or whatever it’s called. He got higher than Shawn did! As for Apolo – honey, sexy ain’t work for you, you is HOT. Ten times hotter than Gilles. Not like that is a stretch this season. 🙂
ANYway, let’s analyze who has the best shot of sticking around and who…doesn’t.
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Well, I hate to say it, but barring a miracle, I think Drew might be toast. That makes me sad, because I like Drew, and Bristol? Not so much. Kirstie only needs one more vote than him and Bristol needs a number that she easily got over him once before. I have a hard time imagining a scenario where she doesn’t do it again, especially since I think most viewers are going to view her with sympathy, thanks to how the show aired the footage last night. Anyway, let’s look at what Bristol has to do to stick around. She needs TWO of the following:
– Bristol needs 5,400 more votes per million votes cast than either Kirstie or Drew, OR;
– Bristol needs 9,000 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;
– Bristol needs 10,800 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Gilles, Sabrina, Helio or Apolo, OR;
– Bristol needs 14,400 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;
– Bristol needs 16,200 more votes per million votes cast the either Kelly or Melissa.
Hmmm….looking at it like that, I’m not entirely sure that Kelly or Melissa are safe. But they probably are – I think Drew is toast in this scenario. The question is – who else is toast?? Bristol, as the low scorer, needs to jump over TWO people in order to stay, not just one. Boy oh boy – tonight could be interesting. My gut tells me that since Helio already made a trip to the bottom two, that he’s the likely second eliminee (sorry Brooke). Emmitt might be over rated with the audience, or one of the top three could be in trouble simply out of fans certainty that they are safe. Or it could be someone else in the middle of the pack. Anyway…
Kirstie and Drew are the next on the hit list. I’m not so worried about Kirstie just yet, so I’m going to make this all about Drew. If you want know know about Kirstie all you have to do is insert her name in the place of Drew’s. What Drew needs to stick around is that he has to have TWO of the list below to come true:
– Drew needs for Bristol to not cover the spread, OR;
– Drew needs for Kirstie to NOT get even one more vote per million votes cast than him, OR;
– Drew needs 3,600 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;
– Drew needs 5,400 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Gilles, Apolo, Sabrina or Helio, OR;
– Drew needs 9,000 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;
– Drew needs 10,800 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Melissa or Kelly.
I think, automatically, Drew gets beat by Kirstie and Bristol. That means he would have to beat the spread on those people ahead of him in score. He might beat Helio again, but what are the odds he can beat Emmitt, Gilles Sabrina or Apolo?? While I would LOVE to see Emmitt or Gilles in the bottom two, I don’t think it’s likely to happen. Sabrina?? This is where the rubber meets the road, sister. This is danger zone much like your first season. Scary. BUT, I’m still inclined to think that it’s gonna be Helio with a possible shocker of Emmitt. I’m back to the Melissa/Kelly safety zone since they both beat Helio last week. Lord, watch now, here comes the waffle – then again, his fans may have voted like crazy and the ladies slacked off due to perceived safety. Heh. I’m loving this season.
Back to Emmitt. I don’t think it’s actually Emmitt’s time yet, but let’s check it out. For Emmitt to be safe, he needs TWO of the following things to occur:
– Emmitt needs Bristol to not cover the spread, or:
– Emmitt needs for Kirstie to not cover the spread, OR;
– Emmitt needs for Drew to not cover the spread, OR;
– Emmitt needs 1,800 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Gilles, Apolo, Sabrina or Helio, OR;
– Emmitt needs 5,400 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;
– Emmitt needs 7,200 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Kelly or Melissa.
As I said, I think Kirstie, at least, is beating Emmitt. Bristol?? Doesn’t have to if she’s beating Drew by the margin. She then needs only one other person to beat and I think she still has it in her. Unfortunately.
Now here’s where it gets interesting. The four way tie for fourth place. Oy veh. For any of the four to stick around, it’s easy. They need none of the people below them to cover the spread or they need 3,600 or 5,400 more votes per million votes cast to get past Shawn and Melissa/Kelly, respectively. Out of the top 7, I think that Shawn and Apolo are likely safe. I also think that Gilles is probably safe. But man. The rest of them are right to be worried. There are a ton of questions that we may or may not get answers to tonight…
Is Sabrina doing better in votes this time around?
Can Melissa hold her own with a less popular pro and not nearly the fanbase she had last time?
Did Helio’s fans rally to keep him after getting scared last week?
For that matter – are Gilles, Apolo and Shawn doing as well as well as we think?
Does General Hospital have the fanbase to keep Kelly safe?
For Shawn to be safe, she needs the 8 people below her to not cover the spread. I think at least three, maybe four or more aren’t covering the spread. To pass Kelly and/or Melissa, Shawn only needs 1,800 more votes per million votes cast…and I think she’s doing that easily. That’s why I think Shawn is safe. Similar for Apolo he only needs 5,400 more votes per million votes cast to beat Melissa and/or Kelly and I think he’s likely doing that. Then he also only needs ONE more vote per million votes cast than Gilles, Sabrina and Helio – again, shouldn’t be a problem.
Oy, I’m going in circles here. I still think that Drew and Helio are going home, but I think the potential exists for Melissa or Kelly to replace Helio. MAYBE Sabrina. For either Melissa or Kelly to go home, MOST of the following has to happen:
– Bristol needs 16,200 more votes per million votes cast the either Kelly or Melissa.
– Drew/Kirstie needs 10,800 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Melissa or Kelly.
– Emmitt needs 7,200 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Kelly or Melissa.
– Gilles, Helio, Sabrina AND Apolo need 5,400 more votes per million votes cast.
– Shawn needs 1,800 more votes per million votes cast.
See why I’m concerned?? None of those numbers are what I would call HUGE. Because it’s a double elimination, for one of them to go home ALL BUT ONE of that list would have to happen. For example, Drew might not beat the spread – but if everyone else does, one of them goes home. From where I sit, everything kinda hinges on Helio and his fanbase. Did they rally?
I’m going to play the odds and reiterate that Drew is the bottom and Helio is the next to bottom. My back up plan is that it’s Drew and one of the ladies. Probably Melissa. But I would rather it be Sabrina cuz Louis’ head would explode and that might be fun. I’m mean like that. 🙂
Thanks, H..
I always look forward to the numbers posts, even the times that my definitely-not-a-math-brain mind doesn’t completely understand it…. But it was clear today, even I understood it.
I am happy that there are at least a couple pairs that seem to be safe, I thought this morning that every single pair could be in danger, and was just waiting for your post.
And correct me if I’m wrong, but I do remember someone being eliminated when at the top of the leader board? After season 9, probably later than that though….. Correct?
As much as I think Sabrina is a nice girl and I do enjoy her dancing to a degree (although not as much as I should since she’s so forceful) I am going to die laughing if she gets eliminated early. I will feel bad, because she doesn’t deserve that kind of heartbreak again, but it will still be funny as hell.
Anyway, I think it’s Drew gone tonight, with the other possibility being Helio, Emmitt, or Melissa. Hopefully it’s Bristol, but not counting on it. Outside chance of Sabrina.
I would so love to see Gilles and Sabrina be the bottom two this week just to punish the judges and the producers for blatant manipulating the scores to further the storylines they have decided to promote this season. It’s wishful thinking, I know, but one can dream.
Anyway, I expect that I will be somewhat saddened by both eliminations tonight. It won’t be any of the couples that I can’t stand or am indifferent to, but will be two of the couples that I like but don’t vote for.
Heidi, you have no idea how much I wait for this post every week, love your numbers posts!!!
My vote for Drew and Sabrina to go home, with a good chance of Helio instead of Sabrina.
Thanks again!!!
Oh Heidi, I so agree about Apolo’s hotness…and he is way more hot than Gilles!!
Anyway, thanks and fascinating numbers as always. But, dang, I was hoping the numbers would support Bristol being eliminated better. You are probably right how she will stick around again. I’m still hoping she’s a gonner though and her drama this week will help seal her fate off the show. I think Drew is leaving tonight for sure too!
And please don’t let someone at the top of the leaderboard be voted off. That would be so sad.
Thanks again!!
Oh Princess Heidi! I should know better than to read this at work. I laughed so loud at that last paragraph. I think if there was pay-per-view to see LVA’s head explode, they could donate the money to the government and take care of the deficit! As he said, sometimes less is more; and less of him is more than enough! I’m keeping my fingers crossed for LVA and BP. You know, they should have been partners. Even the tea baggers or the morons at VFTW would give up and want them gone!
Thanks for the great number crunching again, I very much appreciate these posts!
I believe Apolo and Shawn will easily get through to next week. I think Bristol and Kirstie should be the ones to leave, but Kirstie will definitely be safe and I have a hunch Bristol will too (although I hope not.)
I think Drew will be at the very bottom. Second from the bottom I’m guessing will be Helio, with an off chance of it being Sabrina. I understand your point about Melissa and Kelly being in danger, but my gut feeling is that they will be safe.
I actually think Drew could be safe. This is why: I am pretty sure that he and Joey share a fanbase and vote splitting is what caused Drew to hit the B2 on week one. That scared the fans and they thought Joey was safe so they voted mainly for Drew which led to Joey’s early exit. Since Joey did leave us I think that the entire fanbase will get behind Drew which could be enought to save him tonight.
I would like to see Emmitt go. (I’m really sorry Emmitt fans.) It is nothing against him, but I don’t want to see ANOTHER football player win. I’m pretty sure Drew’s going home. With Drew, I’d rather see Sabrina go than Helio purely because I love Chelsie and don’t care for Louis. As always, I’m open to Bristol going home too.
@Lisa C, I wonder about that as well. I really could not make a prediction for tongiht. I think it could be absolutely anybody.
Thank you PH! Love the numbers post! LOL to the LVA head explosion and ROLFL because of Linz’s follow-up comment!!! Here’s hoping a poor dancer goes home or one that feels less is more! 😉
Lori, Audrina was eliminated when she was in second place and a huge number of points ahead of Bristol and Kurt. Huge. Don’t remember any people in first place going, but I know the spread between Audrina and many of the rest of the cast was much greater than it is today for Melissa/kelly and Bristol/Kirstie.
I have a sinking feeling that Bristol will be safe tonight. 🙁 If she stays I can only hope that she will take out Giles or Sabrina – and then I will laugh until I hurt myself.
Well from the circle of GH fans I talk to, I worry for Kelly. Imo, they are not power voting and assume Kelly’s gh fan base will pull for her. Much easier to tweet support than to actually vote I guess. *sigh*
Bwahaha at Louis’head exploding!!!
Willa and Maks left in season 3 when they were at the top of the leaderboard. It was a 4-way tie for first place, as I recall.
Willa and Maks had a cringeworthy showmance. Good dancing, but she had no fan base and the rehearsal footage was yucky.
I would be happy for Kirstie to go tonight along with Sabrina. I wouldn’t be too upset for Drew to go either. I really hope that Helio stays. I love his enthusiasm. He always looks so happy to be there. Chelsie has been a good partner for him.
I always love this post. And I’m praying Helinho doesn’t leave tonight…
btw, guys, let me just talk about how things happen here in Brazil on our version of DwtS.
We have 5 (sometimes more) judges: 3 artistic judges (who are just stars from soaps, singers or whatever and have no dance background) and 2 tecnique judges (who have dance background). From them are taken two averages: one from the artistic judges and other from the tecnique judges.
The scores come from 5 to 10. No half points.
The people from home also vote by phone and text message SCORING the couple. The audience (it’s also a live show) do the same. It generates more two averages that are combined. What it means that the couple could get a best total of 40.
Note that as the audience scores the couples, they can do a proccess to low the average. For example. a couple gets 10 from all the judges but if the people at home can call and text just 5, and the show audience gives just 5, the couple goes with 10+10+5+5 = 30/40.
Oh, and people can vote how many times they want.
It’s an interesting system, but also but also may cause injustices… just wanted to share it with you. =]
Sabrina Bryan is a fantastic dancer, the best among the ladies this season! I would prefer to see Bristol, Drew/Kirstie eliminated tonight – those 3 are the weakest dancers left. I voted N times for Gilles & yes I don’t expect him to leave this evening!I gave votes to Sabrina & Helio, hope they will be SAFE too!
Personally, I would love to see Louis explode. My wish would be having Bristol in the bottom two, but it’s not going to happen. She doesn’t get my sympathy at all over that video. She can’t dance, her attitude stinks and now she’s a crybaby stomping out of the room. Would love to see her go tonight, but I think it’s going to be Drew and Helio. Helio doesn’t deserve to go before her, but the mistake last night hurt him big time. It would be nice if Gilles left too. How about Sabrina and Gilles? Then we could watch Louis and Gilles explode!
How is Melissa an ABC employee? Are we talking about The Bachelor still or does she have another show with ABC?
I always thought Bristol was a bad dancer, but had no feeling about her either way. I read all the “hurtful” things posted here. I do have to say, I thought her package was off putting. She was like the whinny little girl that doesn’t get her way, so she takes her ball and goes home. Not very sympathetic to that. They had the caption below that said it was taking place Wednesday morning, so the rehearsal time he missed must have been that train wreck Quickstep. He probably wanted to hang with Katherine!
Thanks again, PH – I rely on your fine numbers posts to clear my mind for Tues nights. Or to scramble my mind more clearly – either way, it’s all good.
I think it’ll be Helio and Bristol leaving tonight. But I’ve been wrong before – I didn’t see Joey’s early departure coming.
#17 Carlos-
I think it’s so different and great! If we had that here, I’d score Gilles and Bristol all across 5’s and get their big egos out the door!
And thank you PH, the work you guys do around here is amazing! Love it!
Mark missing rehearsal – probably taking a mental health break! Bristol said he missed the rehearsal, while Mark said he was late for the rehearsal – which one is it? If he was just late, he probably just had something he needed to get done, maybe a business or promotion opportunity. It may have had nothing whatsoever to do with Bristol, yet she’s managed to make it ‘all about her’.
I’m guessing it will be helio and drew also, with outside chance of sabrina. anything else, and i will be kind of surprised.
It’s probably been mentioned here on Pure before, but I can’t remember reading it – interesting to me that out of 2 results shows so far, there have been 4 *different* couples in the bottom 2. Just really a screwy, screwy season. I wonder if that trend might continue tonight, or if there will be a repeat…
@Fancy
Melissa is employed by ABC as she is a contributor for Good Morning America
I definitely think Bristol is done. With it being double elimination I just don’t see how she can last. I just wonder who the second one will be, maybe (or wishful thinking on my part) kirstie? I like her as an actress but I dunno, something bugs me about her, lol. While I do agree about Shawn maybe not having the scores she maybe should have had, I also think Carrie Ann should have not given a 9 considering the lifts. My opinion. And Helio and Chelsie had a high score considering the trip even if the dress caused it. Im not gonna lie I hope there is more of a “shock”. Saying Bristol and Drew? seems obvious. Lol! And I loved Melissa’s dance, but that was really all that stood out to me last night!
Sandra77, I’m laughing at your analysis only because I’m imagining how my colleagues would react to my not showing up for work at a critical time and then shrugging it off by telling them it had nothing to do with them. Somehow don’t think it would go over very well.
Giles going I think would be funny and shocking. He could stand there and Carrie would give him a 10! I like Peta but Giles seems like he’s already won to me, in his packages. Or at least I didn’t like last nights.
As for Bristol’s package can see why she would be upset. I have thick skin but if my partner wasn’t showing up at rehearsals that would be hard.
@katarina… Mark called the bosses – the production people. I assume as well that he texted Bristol, something we didn’t get from the 42 minutes of footage that weren’t shown.
When I was working, when I wasn’t coming in for whatever reason, I called my boss. Not my co-workers, not my lunchbreak friends, not my smoking buddies. My boss. As for Mark telling Bristol it had nothing to do with her, SHE was the one saying that it was all because he was trying to avoid her.
My only comment is that, this being an All Star season, competitors like Kirstie and Bristol shouldn’t be on the show. Kirstie simply doesn’t have what it takes to keep up with the rest of the cast and, unfortunately, neither does Bristol. I was very upset last week when Joey and Kym were eliminated first. They had so much more potential than Kirstie or Bristol will ever even come close to having. Me personally; I’m rooting for Shawn to get a second mirror ball. I think she’s the strongest dancer and I also see a lot more confidence in her this season. Derek is really bringing out the best in her and she’s got all my votes in the bag!!
I would love it if Bristol was eliminated tonight but unfortunately I don’t think that will happen. Not a fan of Melissa’s either and didn’t think that Samba should have gotten 9’s. As long as Shawn and Apolo are safe, I’m OK, but hoping that it’s either Bristol, Melissa, Sabrina or Gilles going home tonight.
#28 Nathan
Ohhhh. Then, those 9s last night make sense now.
Hi thank you for the stats. First I agree with you about Apollo, Shawn, but I also think Kelly should be in the third place. I got the feeling Shawn is doing very well with the votes and also Giles. Base in fb comments they seems to have a lot of fans. I don’t get the hope for Melissa dance but a lot of people seems to like it again base in FB comments. I agree about Drew, he may go tonight along with possible Helio.
Fan
I agree with you about Melissa’s samba for me wasn’t memorable. Too many tricks in it and her arms were sloppy.
#32 Evaine, here the funny thing about it….
After season 11, Mark said in almost every interview while on his music tour, that he was in contact with her every other day (added to shippers delight lol). Right before season 12 started he did an interview when asked if he hopes to get a better partner than Bristol Palin, he said,” pairings go by height and personalities. I love Bristol like a sister and I gave her crap about not keeping in touch…I hadn’t heard from her in about a week or so.”
One would think that if they were buddies, he’d call/text her. This season has probably put a strain on the relationship and they argued about the QS because she didn’t like that he kept “knocking it” as a “country” QS, she felt he was being insulting to country music and what she likes…yada yada.
Interesting also that if her worst dance is jive, why Mark would mention a jive to rock n roll music? maybe to get it out of the way? More freedom=less rules? Paula Abdul as a judge also? He “hung out” with Paula when he was dating Pia Toscano (at least they all left a restaurant together).
Apolo hotter than Gilles!!!! What planet are you ladies on? At least let’s all admit this is a popularity contest and not a dance competition. I stopped watching the show three years ago and don’t know why I started watching again. Oh wait…Gilles!!!!
What are you, twelve??? COOL IT, ANGELA. That’s not how we roll around here – you like Gilles better? FINE. The rest of us like Apolo better, and there’s nothing wrong with that – and you don’t get to take swipes at us just because you don’t agree and aren’t mature enough to deal with it.
Katarina, re your comment #30, I don’t think your analogy quite works here. Rehearsals aren’t a 9 to 5 job. The couples can make/adjust their own rehearsal schedules, so Mark’s having to adjust a rehearsal time and make that time up later isn’t the same as just not showing up for a scheduled work meeting with colleagues. And even in the 9 to 5 environment, you notify your colleagues/boss if you have a doctor’s appointment for example, or a family emergency (which is what Mark says caused him to have to reschedule rehearsal times) that’s going to cause a problem. Obviously, the pros and celebs probably won’t change rehearsal schedules willy-nilly, but I wouldn’t think it unusual for something important to come up that would cause one of them to have to do so.
:::waits for the Courtney hammer to fall on Cotta in 5…4…3…:::
Not even gonna waste my time this time – I’ll just reiterate what I’ve been saying all along: people are giving FAR too much credit to VFTW.
You know, I think it’s because so many people can’t bring themselves to believe that anyone would actually vote for certain celebs, which I think is very narrow-minded and willfully ignorant.