DWTS All Stars, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers

Anyone else find it somewhat (ok, not at all) coincidental that the two women likely in the most trouble with voters were also at the top of the leaderboard, yet had dances that were not even close to tied for the best of the night?? Don’t get me wrong, I like both Melissa and Kelly very much, but even with docked points for breaking the rules, Shawn and Apolo belong at the top of the leaderboard. The only thing that comes to my mind is that they are doing fine in votes, and Melissa and Kelly both need protection from Kirstie and Bristol. Why do they warrant protection and Drew and Helio don’t?? Well…Drew and Helio don’t work for ABC. Melissa and Kelly (and Gilles) both do work for ABC.  There are no coincidences.  Sure, Apolo and Shawn are likely fine – but it chaps my ass that for two weeks in a row Apolo has gotten screwed and this week Shawn joins him. There is no way – no way – that either Melissa or Kelly deserve to be a full point and a half ahead of Apolo.  I say, give them each a 25.5 or 26, Apolo a 27 or 28 and Shawn a 27 (only because she broke the rules).

Note to Mark, Louis and Maks – Derek is the example that you all should look to when being chastised for breaking the rules. All Derek and Shawn wanted from Len was the admission that he liked the dance very much. That is telling. They both knew full well they were going to be docked – the only question was by how much.  I’m still in awe of how much air Derek got when doing the jump split or whatever it’s called. He got higher than Shawn did! As for Apolo – honey, sexy ain’t work for you, you is HOT. Ten times hotter than Gilles. Not like that is a stretch this season. :-)

ANYway, let’s analyze who has the best shot of sticking around and who…doesn’t.

The Judges Scores and Percentages

 

Well, I hate to say it, but barring a miracle, I think Drew might be toast. That makes me sad, because I like Drew, and Bristol? Not so much. Kirstie only needs one more vote than him and Bristol needs a number that she easily got over him once before.  I have a hard time imagining a scenario where she doesn’t do it again, especially since I think most viewers are going to view her with sympathy, thanks to how the show aired the footage last night. Anyway, let’s look at what Bristol has to do to stick around. She needs TWO of the following:

-          Bristol needs 5,400 more votes per million votes cast than either Kirstie or Drew, OR;

-          Bristol needs 9,000 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

-          Bristol needs 10,800 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Gilles, Sabrina, Helio or Apolo, OR;

-          Bristol needs 14,400 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

-          Bristol needs 16,200 more votes per million votes cast the either Kelly or Melissa.

Hmmm….looking at it like that, I’m not entirely sure that Kelly or Melissa are safe. But they probably are – I think Drew is toast in this scenario. The question is – who else is toast?? Bristol, as the low scorer, needs to jump over TWO people in order to stay, not just one.  Boy oh boy – tonight could be interesting. My gut tells me that since Helio already made a trip to the bottom two, that he’s the likely second eliminee (sorry Brooke). Emmitt might be over rated with the audience, or one of the top three could be in trouble simply out of fans certainty that they are safe.  Or it could be someone else in the middle of the pack.  Anyway…

Kirstie and Drew are the next on the hit list. I’m not so worried about Kirstie just yet, so I’m going to make this all about Drew. If you want know know about Kirstie all you have to do is insert her name in the place of Drew’s. What Drew needs to stick around is that he has to have TWO of the list below to come true:

-          Drew needs for Bristol to not cover the spread, OR;

-          Drew needs for Kirstie to NOT get even one more vote per million votes cast than him, OR;

-          Drew needs 3,600 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

-          Drew needs 5,400 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Gilles, Apolo, Sabrina or Helio, OR;

-          Drew needs 9,000 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

-          Drew needs 10,800 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Melissa or Kelly.

I think, automatically, Drew gets beat by Kirstie and Bristol. That means he would have to beat the spread on those people ahead of him in score. He might beat Helio again, but what are the odds he can beat Emmitt, Gilles Sabrina or Apolo??  While I would LOVE to see Emmitt or Gilles in the bottom two, I don’t think it’s likely to happen. Sabrina?? This is where the rubber meets the road, sister. This is danger zone much like your first season. Scary. BUT, I’m still inclined to think that it’s gonna be Helio with a possible shocker of Emmitt.  I’m back to the Melissa/Kelly safety zone since they both beat Helio last week.  Lord, watch now, here comes the waffle – then again, his fans may have voted like crazy and the ladies slacked off due to perceived safety.  Heh. I’m loving this season.

Back to Emmitt. I don’t think it’s actually Emmitt’s time yet, but let’s check it out. For Emmitt to be safe, he needs TWO of the following things to occur:

-          Emmitt needs Bristol to not cover the spread, or:

-          Emmitt needs for Kirstie to not cover the spread, OR;

-          Emmitt needs for Drew to not cover the spread, OR;

-          Emmitt needs 1,800 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Gilles, Apolo, Sabrina or Helio, OR;

-          Emmitt needs 5,400 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

-          Emmitt needs 7,200 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Kelly or Melissa.

As I said, I think Kirstie, at least, is beating Emmitt. Bristol?? Doesn’t have to if she’s beating Drew by the margin. She then needs only one other person to beat and I think she still has it in her.  Unfortunately.

Now here’s where it gets interesting. The four way tie for fourth place. Oy veh. For any of the four to stick around, it’s easy. They need none of the people below them to cover the spread or they need 3,600 or 5,400 more votes per million votes cast to get past Shawn and Melissa/Kelly, respectively. Out of the top 7, I think that Shawn and Apolo are likely safe. I also think that Gilles is probably safe. But man. The rest of them are right to be worried.  There are a ton of questions that we may or may not get answers to tonight…

Is Sabrina doing better in votes this time around?

Can Melissa hold her own with a less popular pro and not nearly the fanbase she had last time?

Did Helio’s fans rally to keep him after getting scared last week?

For that matter – are Gilles, Apolo and Shawn doing as well as well as we think?

Does General Hospital have the fanbase to keep Kelly safe?

For Shawn to be safe, she needs the 8 people below her to not cover the spread. I think at least three, maybe four or more aren’t covering the spread. To pass Kelly and/or Melissa, Shawn only needs 1,800 more votes per million votes cast…and I think she’s doing that easily. That’s why I think Shawn is safe. Similar for Apolo he only needs 5,400 more votes per million votes cast to beat Melissa and/or Kelly and I think he’s likely doing that. Then he also only needs ONE more vote per million votes cast than Gilles, Sabrina and Helio – again, shouldn’t be a problem.

Oy, I’m going in circles here. I still think that Drew and Helio are going home, but I think the potential exists for Melissa or Kelly to replace Helio. MAYBE Sabrina.  For either Melissa or Kelly to go home, MOST of the following has to happen:

-          Bristol needs 16,200 more votes per million votes cast the either Kelly or Melissa.

-          Drew/Kirstie needs 10,800 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Melissa or Kelly.

-          Emmitt needs 7,200 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Kelly or Melissa.

-          Gilles, Helio, Sabrina AND Apolo need 5,400 more votes per million votes cast.

-          Shawn needs 1,800 more votes per million votes cast.

See why I’m concerned?? None of those numbers are what I would call HUGE. Because it’s a double elimination, for one of them to go home ALL BUT ONE of that list would have to happen. For example, Drew might not beat the spread – but if everyone else does, one of them goes home.  From where I sit, everything kinda hinges on Helio and his fanbase. Did they rally?

I’m going to play the odds and reiterate that Drew is the bottom and Helio is the next to bottom. My back up plan is that it’s Drew and one of the ladies. Probably Melissa. But I would rather it be Sabrina cuz Louis’ head would explode and that might be fun. I’m mean like that.  :-)