DWTS Season 15, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well. As Courtney mentioned, the abundance of points handed out means that the margins are shrunk a bit over all. While that might spell disaster for a few pairs, it also HELPS Apolo tremendously. Why, do you ask?? Well, he has to do next to nothing – like, maybe, take off his shirt – to get past a couple of the lesser known females. Throw in the minor disaster in the middle of their dance and poor, weepy Karina and you have sympathy votes out the wazoo. I saw you people in the comments saying you had to throw some votes his way. That’s how the sympathy vote works. Even without it, I doubt Apolo is in any danger. Let me tell you why…here’s how the leader board stacks up:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Ya see? Yeah, Apolo is near the bottom, but see how close he is in points to the people above him? The points seem like more, but look at the percentages. Between Apolo and Kelly there is LESS THAN one percentage point. That’s what happens when so many freakin’ points are handed out. Now, maybe  I will turn out to be way wrong here, and really with the way this season is, I wouldn’t be surprised – but I don’t think he’s going anywhere. And maybe I’m in denial. :-) Cuz I love me some Apolo. Not as much as I love me some Derek (he played the drums!! :::swoon::: I’ve always been a sucker for musicians) but still. :-)

So, what about our bottom dwellers?? Hmmmm….I guess we find out once again this week what their competition is made of. Really, again, it’s just as much about the other ladies and their staying power as it is about Bristol and Kirstie.  Kirstie is the low woman on the totem pole – what all does she need to survive yet again?? She needs ONE of the following:

-     Kirstie needs 6,220 more votes per million votes cast than Bristol to stick around, OR;

-     Kirstie needs 14,000 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

-     Kirstie needs 17,110 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina, OR;

-     Kirstie needs 18,670 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

-     Kirstie needs 21,775 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

-     Kirstie needs 23,330 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, OR;

-     Kirstie needs 29,600 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn/Gilles.

Last week, Kirstie needed less than 6k votes to stay over Helio and ONE vote to stay over Drew. The week before that? Less than 6k to stay over Joey. Tonight will be the true test of her staying power in this All Star Season. Can she do it? I have no idea. :-) I think she might be able to beat Bristol and she doesn’t need much. And let’s not forget that Sabrina was in the bottom two last week.  And last week Kirstie only needed about 5,400 more votes per million votes cast to stick around over Sabrina. Question is – is the 17k spread enough to keep Sabrina safe?? But first, let’s talk about Bristol.

Bristol has been the low scorer for the last two weeks of the competition but has managed to stick around. She’s only needed 11k and 6k to stick around. This week she needs the following in order to survive another week:

-     Bristol needs 7,800 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

-     Bristol needs 10,900 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina, OR;

-     Bristol needs 12,500 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

-     Bristol needs  15,600 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

-     Bristol needs 17,100 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, OR;

-     Bristol needs 23,350 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn/Gilles.

See that number that Bristol needs to beat Sabrina?? Well, there you go. She’s done it before, she could do it again. I think Apolo can beat her…and I think Kirstie can beat her…that leaves Bristol versus Sabrina. And, unfortunately for Sabrina, she and Bristol share a former partner/fanbase. Mark. Now, I’ve heard tell that Mark’s fans are voting Sabrina this season and I sure as hell don’t blame them. I was pretty clear that I would NOT be voting for Derek if he was dancing with Bristol. I do have standards. :-)   So…will Sabrina survive this? I’m not positive. But again, I skip ahead. :-)

Apolo. Lot’s of people worried about Apolo. Me? Not so much. Sure, Kirstie and Bristol have proved to be formidable thus far…but wait. Let’s look at who’s above Apolo.  In order to stay, Apolo needs ONE of the follow:

-     Apolo needs either Bristol or Kirstie to NOT cover their spread, OR;

-     Apolo needs 3,110 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina, OR;

-     Apolo needs 4,700 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

-     Apolo needs 7,800 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

-     Apolo needs 9,350 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, OR;

-     Apolo needs 15,600 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles or Shawn.

Now, maybe I’m cray cray, but even if Kirstie and Bristol cover that spread (doubtful), Apolo beats Sabrina, Emmitt, Melissa and Kelly EASILY – in my opinion. Maybe Gilles too. And maybe even Shawn. CAUTION: This season is like no other and I may be insane. And I REALLY want Apolo (who looks great naked) to be safe. My bias could be affecting my senses. But I really don’t think so. Derek is my favorite boy and I tend to think he’s in danger much of the time. So generally when I really like someone I tend to be more pessimistic – but I don’t feel pessimistic about Apolo. Dude is getting sympathy votes too!! Now, this show could make a complete ass out of me tonight….but I’m not that worried. :-)

Now, Bristol and Kirstie don’t have to pass Apolo. If Apolo is blowing everyone out of the water in votes (and after that fall by Karina he could be), and Apolo is way out front….the our ladies in the middle are in danger.  Mostly Sabrina. Kirstie needs just over 17k to take her, while Bristol only needs just over 10k to take her. This is where the rubber meets the road (so to speak) in terms of the All Star Season. Are Bristol and Kirstie THAT MUCH more popular than Sabrina? Last week, Sabrina was in the bottom two and she got there because Bristol got the 10k she needed and Kirstie got the 6k she needed.  I think Sabrina might be in deep doo doo.  Here’s what Sabrina needs to stay in the competition – at least ONE of the following:

-          Sabrina needs for Kirstie to not get the 17,110 more votes per million votes cast, OR;

-          Sabrina needs for Bristol to not get the 10,900 more votes per million votes cast, OR;

-          Sabrina needs for Apolo to not get the 3,110 more votes per million votes cast, OR;

-          Sabrina needs 1,560 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

-          Sabrina needs 4,670 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

-          Sabrina needs 6,220 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, OR;

-          Sabrina needs 12450 more votes per million votes cast than either Gilles or Shawn.

Now, Kirstie may not be able to cover that spread. Sabrina better pray she can’t. Bristol has already covered a similar spread over Sabrina. I think Bristol MIGHT do it again. Apolo will have no problem with that in my mind. Can Sabrina get the votes to pass Emmitt, Melissa or Kelly? I don’t think so.

I think that tonight the bottom two will be some combination of Kirstie, Bristol and Sabrina.  I THINK that it will come down to Kirstie and Sabrina because Bristol has already beaten Sabrina once by nearly the exact same margin, whereas Kirstie’s margin is much larger than it has been before.  HOWEVER, Kirstie only needs 6,220 to beat Bristol. Geez. This is tough. It’s really up to the Kirstie and Bristol fanbases.  Okay…

First guess: Kirstie Versus Sabrina with Kirstie going home

Second guess: Bristol versus Sabrina with Sabrina going home.

This way, if Bristol is beating Sabrina, I doubt that Kirstie is managing the votes to close the spread and won’t muster the 17k votes. But, if Kirstie is killing it that leaves Bristol and Sabrina as the bottom two with Sabrina going home – because Bristol has already beaten her once. I’m going to hurry up and post before I change my mind again. I’m just not that confident. :-D