DWTS Season 15, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers
Well. As Courtney mentioned, the abundance of points handed out means that the margins are shrunk a bit over all. While that might spell disaster for a few pairs, it also HELPS Apolo tremendously. Why, do you ask?? Well, he has to do next to nothing – like, maybe, take off his shirt – to get past a couple of the lesser known females. Throw in the minor disaster in the middle of their dance and poor, weepy Karina and you have sympathy votes out the wazoo. I saw you people in the comments saying you had to throw some votes his way. That’s how the sympathy vote works. Even without it, I doubt Apolo is in any danger. Let me tell you why…here’s how the leader board stacks up:
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Ya see? Yeah, Apolo is near the bottom, but see how close he is in points to the people above him? The points seem like more, but look at the percentages. Between Apolo and Kelly there is LESS THAN one percentage point. That’s what happens when so many freakin’ points are handed out. Now, maybe I will turn out to be way wrong here, and really with the way this season is, I wouldn’t be surprised – but I don’t think he’s going anywhere. And maybe I’m in denial. 🙂 Cuz I love me some Apolo. Not as much as I love me some Derek (he played the drums!! :::swoon::: I’ve always been a sucker for musicians) but still. 🙂
So, what about our bottom dwellers?? Hmmmm….I guess we find out once again this week what their competition is made of. Really, again, it’s just as much about the other ladies and their staying power as it is about Bristol and Kirstie. Kirstie is the low woman on the totem pole – what all does she need to survive yet again?? She needs ONE of the following:
– Kirstie needs 6,220 more votes per million votes cast than Bristol to stick around, OR;
– Kirstie needs 14,000 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;
– Kirstie needs 17,110 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina, OR;
– Kirstie needs 18,670 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;
– Kirstie needs 21,775 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;
– Kirstie needs 23,330 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, OR;
– Kirstie needs 29,600 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn/Gilles.
Last week, Kirstie needed less than 6k votes to stay over Helio and ONE vote to stay over Drew. The week before that? Less than 6k to stay over Joey. Tonight will be the true test of her staying power in this All Star Season. Can she do it? I have no idea. 🙂 I think she might be able to beat Bristol and she doesn’t need much. And let’s not forget that Sabrina was in the bottom two last week. And last week Kirstie only needed about 5,400 more votes per million votes cast to stick around over Sabrina. Question is – is the 17k spread enough to keep Sabrina safe?? But first, let’s talk about Bristol.
Bristol has been the low scorer for the last two weeks of the competition but has managed to stick around. She’s only needed 11k and 6k to stick around. This week she needs the following in order to survive another week:
– Bristol needs 7,800 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;
– Bristol needs 10,900 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina, OR;
– Bristol needs 12,500 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;
– Bristol needs 15,600 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;
– Bristol needs 17,100 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, OR;
– Bristol needs 23,350 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn/Gilles.
See that number that Bristol needs to beat Sabrina?? Well, there you go. She’s done it before, she could do it again. I think Apolo can beat her…and I think Kirstie can beat her…that leaves Bristol versus Sabrina. And, unfortunately for Sabrina, she and Bristol share a former partner/fanbase. Mark. Now, I’ve heard tell that Mark’s fans are voting Sabrina this season and I sure as hell don’t blame them. I was pretty clear that I would NOT be voting for Derek if he was dancing with Bristol. I do have standards. 🙂 So…will Sabrina survive this? I’m not positive. But again, I skip ahead. 🙂
Apolo. Lot’s of people worried about Apolo. Me? Not so much. Sure, Kirstie and Bristol have proved to be formidable thus far…but wait. Let’s look at who’s above Apolo. In order to stay, Apolo needs ONE of the follow:
– Apolo needs either Bristol or Kirstie to NOT cover their spread, OR;
– Apolo needs 3,110 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina, OR;
– Apolo needs 4,700 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;
– Apolo needs 7,800 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;
– Apolo needs 9,350 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, OR;
– Apolo needs 15,600 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles or Shawn.
Now, maybe I’m cray cray, but even if Kirstie and Bristol cover that spread (doubtful), Apolo beats Sabrina, Emmitt, Melissa and Kelly EASILY – in my opinion. Maybe Gilles too. And maybe even Shawn. CAUTION: This season is like no other and I may be insane. And I REALLY want Apolo (who looks great naked) to be safe. My bias could be affecting my senses. But I really don’t think so. Derek is my favorite boy and I tend to think he’s in danger much of the time. So generally when I really like someone I tend to be more pessimistic – but I don’t feel pessimistic about Apolo. Dude is getting sympathy votes too!! Now, this show could make a complete ass out of me tonight….but I’m not that worried. 🙂
Now, Bristol and Kirstie don’t have to pass Apolo. If Apolo is blowing everyone out of the water in votes (and after that fall by Karina he could be), and Apolo is way out front….the our ladies in the middle are in danger. Mostly Sabrina. Kirstie needs just over 17k to take her, while Bristol only needs just over 10k to take her. This is where the rubber meets the road (so to speak) in terms of the All Star Season. Are Bristol and Kirstie THAT MUCH more popular than Sabrina? Last week, Sabrina was in the bottom two and she got there because Bristol got the 10k she needed and Kirstie got the 6k she needed. I think Sabrina might be in deep doo doo. Here’s what Sabrina needs to stay in the competition – at least ONE of the following:
– Sabrina needs for Kirstie to not get the 17,110 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
– Sabrina needs for Bristol to not get the 10,900 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
– Sabrina needs for Apolo to not get the 3,110 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
– Sabrina needs 1,560 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;
– Sabrina needs 4,670 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;
– Sabrina needs 6,220 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, OR;
– Sabrina needs 12450 more votes per million votes cast than either Gilles or Shawn.
Now, Kirstie may not be able to cover that spread. Sabrina better pray she can’t. Bristol has already covered a similar spread over Sabrina. I think Bristol MIGHT do it again. Apolo will have no problem with that in my mind. Can Sabrina get the votes to pass Emmitt, Melissa or Kelly? I don’t think so.
I think that tonight the bottom two will be some combination of Kirstie, Bristol and Sabrina. I THINK that it will come down to Kirstie and Sabrina because Bristol has already beaten Sabrina once by nearly the exact same margin, whereas Kirstie’s margin is much larger than it has been before. HOWEVER, Kirstie only needs 6,220 to beat Bristol. Geez. This is tough. It’s really up to the Kirstie and Bristol fanbases. Okay…
First guess: Kirstie Versus Sabrina with Kirstie going home
Second guess: Bristol versus Sabrina with Sabrina going home.
This way, if Bristol is beating Sabrina, I doubt that Kirstie is managing the votes to close the spread and won’t muster the 17k votes. But, if Kirstie is killing it that leaves Bristol and Sabrina as the bottom two with Sabrina going home – because Bristol has already beaten her once. I’m going to hurry up and post before I change my mind again. I’m just not that confident. 😀
I’m telling you, Princess Heidi – you need to go to Washington to straighten out the economy. Perhaps you can get on a jet and help President Obama out at the debate tonight. Give him those facts and figures! Don’t know how you do it – Amazing!
Just wish you had ended with “and Bristol is going home”! Humor me and everyone else out there, and please say that! lol Maybe if we all concentrate very hard, we can “will” Tom into saying those magic words “And the couple going home tonight is – – – -Bristol and Mark!”
I can dream – can’t I!
Thanks, PH. I, for one, could live with either of your guesses and throw Bristol in there for good measure. Hope you’re right. The others left are just better dancers at this point. 😉
I would be a happy camper if Sabrina leaves. Did not care for her dancing the first time and do not care for it now.
After seeing this, I think it’s Sabrina going home, maybe Kirstie. They’re not my favorites, but I don’t really want them eliminated just yet.
Bristol was very forgettable this week so she probably won’t get the general public vote. But has she been getting that anyway?
Thanks Heidi – I figured Apolo would be safe. It’s insane how much of a difference one judge’s scores will make.
My thoughts are Sabrina will leave tonight. Hope it’s Bristol though.
Hoping for Bristol to go home, but will be OK with Sabrina. Kristie will go eventually, but I would not mind her for another week or so, of course, I really want Apolo to be safe!!!
Sabrina better not get eliminated tonight. she needs to go home week 6 , same week she went home the first time. 🙂
Thanks for the numbers. I’m thinking Sabrina and bristol with Sabrina going. As a wildcard Sabrina and Melissa with Sabrina going. I honestly would be shocked if kids tie was bottom two, shocked, not sad though.
Kirstie*
Thanks, PH. A part of me has been nervous for Apolo. I still think TPTB will relish the opportunity to put them in jeopardy (poor Karina), but your numbers and gut give me confidence (although I know they don’t come with a guarantee) 😉
For different reasons I’ll be sorry to see Sabrina or Kirstie or Sabrina go, but better them than some others. I’m not even going to hope for Bristol’s departure.
Geez, now I can’t think straight and am cloning Sabrina. I swear I haven’t had a single adult beverage.
I always wonder how all the people voting for those that have been voted off the show vote once their favorite is gone. Is it possible that they rally around someone else like Sabrina so that someone like Bristol is eliminated? One can only wish. Can’t wait for the results!
I would rather Sabrina leave before week 6. Louis thinks they have it won, what would he do if she went home earlier than before? I would be happy. Didn’t like her dancing then, was glad she left, and I don’t like it now. Add in Louis, and they can’t leave fast enough. Kirstie won’t get as far as she did last time, but I think she has maybe 2 more weeks in her. I would love, love the bottom two to be Gilles and Emmitt, but that’s a dream that won’t come true. So I’m going for Bristol and Sabrina and I would be happy with either one. Whoever is left can go next week.
Lisa, speaking for myself, once Kirstie and Maks are gone, I’ll stop voting. My other fave, Anna is already gone and I cannot vote for Mark, my 3rd fave, this season.
Pretty sure that Obama understands the math quite well – it’s Congress that needs serious help. 🙂 But thanks. 🙂
I agree with Evaine I think Maks and Kirstie were underscored. I think Sabrina will be going home. I checked Val and Kelly’s twitter today. Val has 2000 and Kelly has 2500 new followers if they are all voting it is going to get interesting. That is a big jump in followers overnight!
I think they will go one of two ways – either put Apolo in jeopardy OR call him safe first. Really hard to say. I’m lousy at guessing how they will make the calls. Part of me thinks they will put Gilles, Shawn and Apolo up there together really making Karina sweat for a few minutes..then call them all safe.
“And I REALLY want Apolo (who looks great naked) to be safe.”
Haha!
Thank you for this whole post, you made me feel much more confident about Apolo’s chances tonight. I hope you’re right!
Or maybe someone decided to buy some followers, Diana. That is the token response whenever one of the pros gets a sudden overnight jump in followers, right? Or does that only apply to non-Chmerkovskiys? Regardless, I highly doubt all of those people are voting, and in the great scheme of things, I doubt it will equate to a ton of extra votes for them, anyway. And I have to wonder how many of those accounts are spam accounts…
I don’t vote anymore, either, once my favorites are gone, who just happen to be Kirstie and Maks. Wouldn’t venture a guess who’s going tonight. I know who I want to be gone, but that probably won’t happen. She’ll stick around when other celebs who are working their buns off trying to learn these dances to entertain us and earn our votes, go home. Heaven forbid she should break a sweat or have to learn something difficult.
I think Gilles was so over scored. His dance wasn’t that great. I don’t think he deserved a 10.
I’d like Kirstie to stay, if for no other reason than to beat Bristol in votes. I really want Bristol gone but probably not going to happen. As long as Apollo is safe, overall, I’ll be happy.
Thank you for the stats. I really want Apollo to stay, he has much to offer. I’m afraid I’m not confident. Reading the DWTS Facebook comments,seems that Shawn, Gilles and Kelly had a great amount people voting for them.
I am resigned to the fact that Bristol will be around we’ll past her expire date so if she leaves tonight it will be a pleasant surprise. If I am not mistaken the dancers leaving over the last two weeks have been in the middle of the pack so that doesn’t bode we’ll for Melissa, Sabrina or emmitt. Hoping it is Sabrina.
#7 Omg Maddy! That is so funny,I think they need to go before that but imagine that! Week 6! Imagine is they are eliminated and Tom says something like “Sorry Sabrina, America only likes you for 6 weeks!”
And I think Apollo will be fine. Will TPTB play it up and mess with Karina’s feelings? Of course they will! I don’t think they should, it was an honest mistake.
I hope Kirstie and Maks stick around another week. Are they the best, and “All Star” quality, no, but they can put a smile on my face.
And the possibility of Sabrina leaving tonight remind me of what Louis said yesterday in the package that “Bristol and Kirstie have huge fan bases”, but when he said that, I felt like he was making it obvious that they didn’t have a strong base.
Okay here is the thing…Sabrina kind of reminds me of Sherri Shepherd in that she is just happy to be there and Louis well he just kind of ruins it with his arrogant talk and “our choreography is the toughest”…oh be still Louis and you probably think you are the best pro…so I feel sorry for Sabrina because I don’t think he is presenting her in the best light.
Please Lord by some intergalactic happening…I would keep Bristol if you would just flush out Gilles…I know it is wishful thinking but really his interview on Pop TV and his implication he was masturbating to Paul Abdul’s pictures and music was a huge barfing level for me. He has turned into the thing he was rubbing to get his kicks. Oh please don’t throw me off for that remark…I couldn’t resist.
Really, I got the distinct impression that even Mark is ready for Bristol to go. So my next question is….who do you guys think will be chosen for what free style team tonight…just wondering.
Finally, Heidi I am so glad you have standards because I think my pity factor would have been so high for Derek that I would have voted for him anyway if he had gotten Bristol…but he is so good maybe he could have made her look better but then seeing his video today about always pushing himself…makes me think it would have been truly awful.
If Sabrina gets the boot tonight, I think Louis will have a fit.
I think Sabrina will be gone tonight. She’s a good dancer, yes, but this constant “this is redemption!!!!!” thing that she and Louis sort of have going on is getting really old.
It would be a real shame if Sabrina went before some of the others. I hope that doesn’t happen.
I like Sabrina a lot and she obviously loves dancing and being on the show. But Louis just ruins it all with his attitude. Wish she had gotten a better, more likeable partner.
Never got to see the show tonight but I DVR’d it. 🙂 I’ve always liked Bristol but really i’m ok with seeing her go. She had a good run and ended on a high note and had also a graceful exit to what i’ve read. It’s just so nice to see Melissa and Tony doing so well together, all my votes are going to them from here on out. Thanks for all your math work Heidi, I marvel at how you do it although I do agree with Linz in that the President COULD use some of your help with facts and figures. 🙂 I definitely think team Shawn has the advantage over Team Buttwhipe on the celebrity dancer side and choreography side too.
Yeah Sabrina seems like a nice girl. I had hoped that she would balance Louis out better. I don’t hate Louis, as he does have his likable moments. But he has a lot of catty ones, too. At least she gets to stick around another two weeks, although I’m not sure she’s got much more left in her fanbase compared to the other remaining celebs.