DWTS Season 15 Las Vegas Odds Going Into Week 5: Agree or Disagree?
What an interesting shake up we’ve had in Las Vegas Odds from for Dancing With The Stars these last few weeks! According to Sports Bovada again, we have Shawn leading the odds with Apolo and Emmitt tied and not far behind which I agree with. In fact, I agree with all the placements the odds makers have wagered below except for Kirstie Alley who they keep wanting to give such low odds to. She’s danced fairly well these last few weeks and they shouldn’t be underestimating her and Maks’ fan base which I would think dominates Sabrina’s, Melissa’s, Gilles’, and Kelly’s fan bases? Also note how Kelly’s odds are stronger compared to the week before and she moved up a place higher than Gilles. Interesting and deserving in my opinion!!
New Las Vegas Odds going into Week 5:
Shawn Johnson 7/5
Apolo Anton Ono 4/1
Emmitt Smith 4/1
Kelly Monaco 5/1
Gilles Marini 6/1
Melissa Rycroft 25/1
Sabrina Bryan 50/1
Kirstie Alley 66/1
Last week’s odds going into week 4, to compare:
Shawn Johnson – 7/4
Apolo Anton Ohno – 9/4
Emmitt Smith – 7/2
Gilles Marini – 13/2
Kelly Monaco – 12/1
Melissa Rycroft – 15/1
Bristol Palin – 25/1
Sabrina Bryan – 33/1
Kirstie Alley – 50/1
Summing it up…again, I think the odds makers have pegged it, but, I think Sabrina should be at the bottom with Kirstie or Melissa second to last.
Let’s get my fellow Partners In Crimes thoughts on the matter and be sure to let us know what you think too in the comments section…..
Courtney: My only complaint here is that I still think Emmitt is too high – at this point I think Kelly or Gilles has a better chance of making it to the finale than he does. I like Emmitt as a person – he seems to be a nice guy and is having fun this season; but I don’t really see the hunger to win in him like I do in most of the others. But then again, he does seem to be getting some pretty cushy scores…but the judges do seem to be a lot less “enchanted” with him as the weeks wear on. Who knows what’s going on there. But I am quite glad to see Gilles getting edged out by Kelly 
Now if only Melissa makes some big moves this week and can overtake him as well! As for Kirstie – I do think after her bottom 2 appearance this week, they’ve got it about right. Skill-wise, she’s just not really a match for anyone else this season, and I think some of the votes she would have gotten on a regular season are now going to other contestants who might share her fanbase (possibly Kelly & Melissa, maybe Emmitt). I think it’s safe to say she isn’t going to win this season – but how much longer will she stick around?
Heidi: I think Kirstie is in the right spot as well. Sabrina has the potential to get great scores. Kirstie? Not so much, relative to other dancers. Since she was in the bottom two this past week, any bad score could do her in, whereas Sabrina could possibly be spared by a really great dance. The key will be that Sabrina do well on Monday and that her team does well in the team dance. I think Kirstie beats her in votes probably easily, but with a good margin Sabrina has shown she can hang on. I think the margin that Kirstie failed to beat was 17k. If that happens again, I think Kirstie goes…unless someone unexpected falls to the bottom. Like Melissa. I kinda think that Emmitt might not be as strong as anyone thinks either. Between Apolo, Shawn, Gilles and even Melissa/Sabrina, he seems kinda forgettable. He’s definitely too high in the rankings, IMO.
I’m so glad I discovered you few...
Yeah, I think Emmitt is too high. Unless his fanbase is huge. Shawn and Apolo for the 1st and 2nd place, yep. Shawn’s been my pick to win all along but I thought before the season started that Gilles would be the one giving her a run for her money, now it’s definitely Apolo nipping at her heels. 3rd place is a total toss-up, I think.
Kelly has been a revelation this season, and I’m happy to see her beating Gilles. Technique wise, Gilles is a better dancer, but you got to be able to win over the public and I think this “I MUST WIN!” mentality that he seems to have will turn people off.
Emmitt is ranked too high. He seems to be getting a little “lost in the shuffle” to me, as does Melissa. I’m afraid one bad dance could do them in. Kirstie has a strong fanbase and so does Maks, so God really knows where they will end up. Sabrina also has a must win mindset, so I think she could also be turning people off.
Well, Apolo asked fans if he should wear a vest, shirt, or no shirt. Not sure if he meant for the team dance or the samba lol !!!
Lordy, boy can rack up some votes big time that way.
@Sheery – WOW! Thanks for the heads up, I just packed my fan away for the winter…. Better go dig it back out for Monday night!
As has been said, you’re as good as your last dance. So it really depends on how crowd pleasin the performances are from week to week. For instance, Kirstie appartently couldn’t overcome the 17,000 votes this week to avoid bottom two, but might’ve if last week’s dances were pitted against each other, just as Bristol supposedly overcame a margin against Sabrina last week that she didn’t this week. That said, I do think the top 5 are probably pretty accurate here (though not necessarily in that order) but I could still see any of the contestants making the top 3.
I’m actually a little surprised, but quite pleased, that Apolo is still in the #2 spot. I thought his 7th place finish last week would be a bigger influence on the odds makers. Apparently, it just meant the odds got longer, but not longer than anyone’s but Shawn’s…
Honestly, I think that my favs (the ones I vot for are going to be the final three in the finale and I am glad to see with awesome odds) are Kelly and Val (I kinda want her to win over Shawn and Derek becuase she got so much flack for winning the first time around and she is doing incredible this time around as well), and Shawn and Derek are doing great but they are underetimating Mellissa. The last time I voted so much for a relaity show was when Carrie Underwood won Idol and I think I have beaten that record this season for her lol.
I think they’ve got the top four correct, Shawn, Apolo, Emmitt, and Kelly. I really don’t know which of the four will win the trophy. These are not necessarily the 4 best dancers, just like in a normal season. I see it as coming down to a battle of the huge fanbases. Emmitt might not be sparkling on the show or with the judges, but he still has an enormous fanbase, I suspect.
I don’t see Gilles making it into that top 4 group, I just don’t perceive his fanbase as big enough.
If I had my druthers, Melissa and Tony would be in the finals, but I don’t expect that to happen, because of a smaller fan base.
Everyone complains about Kirsties dancing. How about Emmitt? IMO his attitude is terrible and so is his dancing yet he will probably win—fanbase ringer football! I am wondering if Apolo and Shawn are splitting the vote with both being olympians? I would like to see Val and Kelly win because Cheryl,Peta and Derek have all won. It would be nice to see a pro with a first time win and Kelly seems to have a large fanbase so that is what I am hoping for. I am a big Maks and Kirstie fan when they go I will be voting for Val and Kelly and I think all of their fans will do the same!
I think you might be wrong with that last assumption, Diana. Once Kirstie and Maks are gone, I’m done with the voting. Just because Val is Kirstie’s brother, doesn’t make me an automatic fan. And while I like Peta, it’s not because she’s Maks’ girlfriend.
Just for a compare:
BoVoda has the odds at:
Shawn 2.4
Emmett 5.0
Apolo 5.0
Kelly 6.0
Gilles 7.0
Melissa 26.0
Sabrina 51.0
Kirstie 67.0
I agree about Shawn but thinkg Melissa should have topped Gilles as her dance was much better and Sabrina was a little low also.
For my enjoyment, I don’t care to watch Kirstie, Gilles or Kelly dance anymore, in fact the little girls room is a great break during those dances.
Woodrose I agree but for changing out Kelly or Melissa would suit this dance lover better.
I knew Apolo would be tough to beat that is why he was my pick for Chelsie but she didn’t get him.
I will not be surprised if Shawn wins, it will be ok in my eyes at least. I do think Apolo will be in the finals, he is such a great free style dancer I just wished he was Chelsie’s partner, I also would like to watch Melissa in the finales but I am not sure she’ll make it that far Vegas odds have not gone Melissa’s way this season nor Sabrina either.
The Vegas odds makers sure do love Derek.
If Gilles makes it to the finale 4 this could be my final season to watch. There are some things I just can not condone in life. I won’t explain this comment more than just to say I have a strong value system in place and condoning some things in life are wrong.
Yeah, Diana, cuz we NEVER see first time wins…only the last two seasons.
Kelly ain’t gonna win. Kirstie ain’t gonna win. That’s about all I know for sure. Kelly making it to the semi-final hinges entirely on her and Val’s behavior from here on out. Because I went from thinking they were smokin’ to thinking they were gross in one short show. I can’t imagine that I’m alone in that. Of course, I wasn’t voting for them, but I imagine that plenty of casual voters were.
Courtney I just re-read your comment, I agree about Melissa, she is still very capable of over taking Kelly. Last week was Kelly’s strong suit, she could put her acting into that dance, I didn’t enjoy it much but she was doing the Soap O thing anyway.
Tony may surprise Val in his choreo next dance, Tony re-did an old dance of Melissa’s which took away from it as not being fresh and knew. Tony has alot of DWTS experience to draw from and this week may be far better than Val.
I do think Tony is on the stronger team as far as the team dances go. Derek/Shawn’s team have the advantage favor for the team dance.
I don’t find Peta, Val, Maks, Cheryl to overcome the other team. Far too much talent on Shawn’s team pros and stars. Shawn, Apolo, Melissa, Sabrina not a bad egg in the bunch and the pros are great also.
Heidi, no you are not alone when thinking Val and Kelly have become weird to watch.
Sorry I may have over posted. I was reading and as people are posting.
#12 @Sweepster,
“If Gilles makes it to the finale 4 this could be my final season to watch. There are some things I just can not condone in life. I won’t explain this comment more than just to say I have a strong value system in place and condoning some things in life are wrong.”
Sweepster! You can’t just dump this on us and not say what it is. Okay you can but that’s messed up. I’m assuming it’s not his obnoxious personality this season that has your value system all riled up? 1. Lust 2. Greed 3. Gluttony 4. Envy 5. Anger 6. Pride 7. Sloth
You don’t have to say. If you could just narrow it down…….
Well, we know he has #6 in the bag already so that’s not it. It can’t be #3 for obvious reasons. I have a feeling it’s not #7
Well that’s 3 of them out of the way. Thoughts?
@Evaine
I enjoy reading you posts here and on twitter you have a great sense on humor and I learn alot of things from your posts that I didn’t know.
I don’t drink the kool aid. I don’t care for Peta and didn’t care much for Val. I usually stop voting when Maks goes—–this time something about Val and Kelly appealed to me.
Thank you, Diana.
well spoken, Princess, about feelings for Kelly and Val. I too did a complete 180 in the span of one show …… from WOW to ICK in 30 seconds flat!
Funny how the pressure of the All Star season seems to bring out the worst in so many. This season’s Gilles is the creepy clone of the Gilles we met in S8. Val has taken a real nose dive for me, once a sweet natured puppy now a mean spirited playah. Peta, who I truly liked last season now has me scratching my head …. can’t quite put into words what’s rubbing me the wrong way. In fairness, it might just be my feelings for Gilles rubbing off on her, but I don’t think so. Maybe it’s the heavy eye makeup? Something about her just doesn’t sit right for me. And Pamela Anderson who so charmed me in S10, really won me over – my jaw literally hung open during her one performance this season; what the hell was that?
thank heavens for so many bright happy attitudes this season as well – I think team Shawn is gonna kill it next week. Love Apolo & Karina, Shawn & Derek; am really enjoying Melissa & Tony; while not much of a Sabrina or Louis fan, have enjoyed their dancing
I’m already cringing thinking about Gilles & Peta’s rumba – it’s gonna be SOOOO over the top; but I bet Kelly & Val’s Samba will be good.
Evaine, since you wouldn’t likely vote for my favorites, I’m so glad to hear you won’t continuing voting if Kirstie is eliminated…
Ashley and Sweeepster, could it be the whining? I know, not one of the 7 deadlies, but one of the top things that annoy me in a dance entertainment show that people knowingly sign up for.
*LOL* Jess, you can never be sure of that!
But seriously, once my faves are gone, I don’t vote. And sometimes I even stop voting prior to that. *cough* Hope *cough* Bristol *cough*
@Jess
I don’t know Jess, Sweepster put it out there so I was trying to guess. I kind of filed his whining under Pride but I don’t really care. I would just like to see his face when he doesn’t win. I really think Peta’s change this season just might be from having to be with Gilles day in and day out and not being able to show it too blatantly because that’s her partner and it’s her job too. But she looks miserable, and can you blame her. Even the few times she’s smiled don’t seem all that genuine to me. I think of how she was with Donald and this is not the same girl.
Evaine, since my 2 favorites are Apolo and Shawn I think neither of their pros are at the top of your favorite pro list BUT if the spirit moves you and you find yourself wanting to vote for them, woo hoo!! I also like Melissa, and somehow I’m finding Sabrina’s joy over being on the show endearing but I can’t add them to my voting list because I’d be more sad to see my top 2 go than either of them. I can see how sometimes you just want to help a favorite pro out of their misery and not vote for them any longer and those 2 sure were doosies. One was the most abusive celeb by far ever.
Ashley L, yeah I was kind of guessing too, as I thought it was odd to put it out there all cryptically.
It appears that Peta isn’t as happy but perhaps she’s just very serious right now. Many of us who comment here don’t care for him any longer but there are plenty of venues where there’s still plenty of gushing. I kind of think we can never really know for sure how another feels or why they feel that way unless they tell us. But I’m sure that many of the pros over the 15 seasons have had partners they get annoyed with at times to flat out despise but do a pretty good job of making like happy.
I agree with Heidi and all who said the yuck or ick factor kicked in with Kelly and Val last week…you can take something too far and they did…plus most of the pro’s and celebrities are so gracious on POP TV but Kelly is like get away from me and that kind of bugs me too. I also agree with the posters who say Peta looks miserable this season, but my ick factor is up with Gilles too. He just rubs me the wrong way.