DWTS Season 15, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers
This week, this particular post doesn’t mean a hill of beans because, as I’m sure you’ve all figured out by now, there was no elimination. But I’ve had a few requests for it so you can see how your favorites are doing. EVERYTHING could change on Monday night and I have some confidence that it will. I predict Sabrina stays in first place to get her past this particular week – and maybe past the following week. I think that Kirstie and Kelly – and maybe Melissa – are the next designated people who are considered disposable by the producers/judges.
Yes. Heidi is having a very cynical week. 🙂
Anyway, let’s take a look at the numbers for this week:
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Oh dear, everyone favorite over the top showmance which gets more forced by the day is in serious trouble. At least, this week. You’ll notice that everyone but Kirstie has at least a percentage point lead on her. That translates to more votes than I would be comfortable with if I were them – roughly 10,000. What does Kelly have to do to stick around beyond this pretend elimination week? ONE of the following:
– Kelly needs to get 2,250 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie, OR;
– Kelly needs to get 10,150 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;
– Kelly needs to get 11,250 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, Apolo, Melissa or Gilles, OR;
– Kelly needs to get 15,750 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.
Kelly has been relatively protected up to now by people with either much lower scores or fanbase issues of their own. But that protection is largely gone this week. Lots of people would be tempted to say that Kirstie is going to go because she was in the bottom two last week with Bristol. But Kirstie beat the spread on Bristol that was about three times the spread between her and Kelly. This is the part of the all star season where it gets really hard, cuz I’m really not sure if Kelly’s got juice or not. I’m inclined to say “not” – when compared to Kirstie. And I don’t think there is anyone else she can catch. Don’t give me crap about Soap fanbases – soaps are being cancelled left and right. Not to mention that it’s all relative – someone has to go, so you have to consider if other fanbases are bigger or more passionate.
But let’s assume that Kelly finds a miraculous way to safety. What does Kirstie needs need in order to stick around?? She needs ONE of the following:
– Kirstie needs to get 7,900 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;
– Kirstie needs to get 11,250 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, Apolo, Melissa or Gilles, OR;
– Kirstie needs to get 13,500 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.
Based on those numbers, if there was an elimination this week I think it easily comes down to Kelly and Kirstie. I think the only other two people in potential danger would be Melissa and Sabrina – but the margins are too great this week. I think. We won’t really know until it happens. The path forward from here is really not clear. Emmitt has been fading into the woodwork lately, so it’s possible he’s in the lower tier as well.
But, when asked to make a guess, my guess is that Kelly would go home. If not her, Kirstie. Next week, we add a ton of points and everything can change. In any case, you can be sure the margins get smaller.
I’ve been voting for Kelly so I found this to be depressing. It’s not untrue; it’s simply sad. Unless Kelly pulls a Master P and completely flops, I think Kirstie has more to worry about next week because the other couples tend to swap positions on the leader while Kirstie sticks to the bottom. I am so glad there is no elimination this week. Thanks for making this despite there being know elimination. 🙂
dang as a fellow kelly and val fan, this is pretty bad. On top of it, she would get a tango for country week-if it wasnt so bleak, it’d be funny.
Isn’t there another double elimination coming up? If so, I think possibly both Kelly/Melissa and/or Kirstie go or . If not, and there’s only a single elimination, I think Kirstie’s fan base along with Maks, trumps both Melissa’s and Kelly’s but we will see.
IMO they scored Derek and Shawn low to protect Sabrina. I don’t think she is pulling in the votes. She grates on me her and Gilles would be perfect together. Don’t know if it is Kirstie or Kelly going home. Kelly is getting alot of follow on twitter so maybe the soap fans will pull her through.
I really don’t get it. If Kelly goes near last or gets certain music, it’s always, “OMG! She works for ABC! Such favoritism! Clearly they’re pushing her!” She goes first and winds up at the bottom and now she’s “disposable to the producers?” That really doesn’t make much sense.
Less than 4 days till monday night show. I wonder if there’s any more curveballs?..
I wonder if Kelly’s vote totals were much higher toward the beginning of the season. I know I liked she and Val as a couple much more then. I voteed for them, but haven’t in a couple of weeks, because the “showmance” is really wearing thin for me. It was cute when it was genuine, but now it seems forced and like they’re trying to force more into what they had naturally, if that makes any sense. So, I wonder if TPTB are seeing a big drop in the votes for Kelly, and are changing the “plan” accordingly.
I hope that Kirstie goes before Melissa. That will just bum me out. I would LOVE to see Melissa in the final three, but I’m not holding my breath. However, I’ve seen a lot of love for her on various boards. She’s still considered to be sort of like an America’s sweetheart type, I think, and I’m hoping she’s getting a good bit of the general audience votes…people who didn’t come into this season with concrete favorites. I also hope that those people who would like to see a new winner might be voting for her.
I love Apolo, and I’ve voted for both him and Kelly this season. I like Shawn, and I don’t mind Emmitt so much, but when it really comes down to it I would love to see someone else win. I definitely don’t want Gilles (and I think he’s lost votes he originally had at the beginning of the season) so that leaves Kirstie, Sabrina and Melissa. I pick Melissa hands down, though I love Sabrina, too. It’s interesting to me to contemplate if other voters might be feeling the same way. Of course, thsi could just be wishful thinking on my part, because Melissa is my favorite. 🙂
It could be very telling to see how the scores shake out this week. I think Gilles, Shawn and Melissa all could score very high, with Gilles and Shawn having cha cha, and Melissa was great at the V. Waltz the first time around. I don’t know how Kelly will do with the Tango, and foxtrot is sort of boring to me, so I’m not sure about Emmitt. I wish they would score Apolo appropriately, but I don’t see it happening (hope I’m wrong).
I can’t remember what Sabrina and Kirstie are dancing.
Thanks for doing this post. I’m already looking forward to the one next week.
Sorry, Lin – but if Kelly and Kirstie are close or tied, I think Kirstie beats her. I would be happy to be wrong.
When did this show ever make sense, Jessica? And, btw, both things can be true at different times during the season. They want her around for a while, but I don’t think she was ever slated to win. When you lose worse dancers, someone has to go and I think Kelly, Kirstie and Melissa are the next likely victims. They aren’t being helped by the judges anymore, that seems clear to me. They over scored Kelly’s contemporary by a good bit to keep her around for another week, now it appears that they don’t feel the need to protect her anymore. Frankly, that dance on Monday was not any worse than her contemporary dance, as far as I can remember, yet the scores sure are different.
You see this every season. They pimp and over score someone or several someones to make sure they last for a while. Then once the worst dancers are gone, they get scores more like they should have been getting all along. Bristol and Hope are two big examples of this phenomenon – both were over scored for weeks for what ever reason – ratings, drama, whatever. Then, once it got down to them and better dancers, they were scored more realistically – and they and their pros, as you recall, got very pissed and complained about not getting scores they deserved because the producers wanted them gone. No, sweeties, you have it backwards. You are FINALLY getting the scores you deserve because they (be it producers or judges, take your pick) have decided that they don’t actually need you anymore. Ta da!!
As for Kelly – remember, this is a non-elimination week. Next week someone goes home, but everyone has a chance to dance again. It’s entirely possible they are story boarding a comeback for Kelly this week. They could give her a high score and a bonus for the group dance and push her back to the middle of the pack. I don’t know if that will be enough, but it could happen. Do I think it will happen? I’m not really sure. I’m guessing it depends on Kirstie’s buzz. A lot of this stuff is reading tea leaves in hind sight. 🙂
Heidi: Is it just your opinion that they pimp a certain person each week? You probably have seen this a million times to know as fact. Because TPTB are playing around and making this so political each week is like a crap shoot!
I agree with what Violet said about the chemistry with Val now looking like they are trying to force more than what they had naturally. We’ll see if they storyboard a comeback for her next week, but I think they are more likely to do that with Melissa after her injury scare, and Apolo after the last two weeks of first the mishap with the Hip Hop routine and then the supposed lack of chemistry for Samba. To me Kelly’s story is played out at this point – what else does she have left to give us besides the showmance angle? – while the others still some storylines left. The potential of two Olympians in the finals together might be more appealing to TPTB then more forced showmance and Kelly’s glum facial expressions. Shawn and Apolo’s Freestyles are both in the Top 10 all time best dances list aren’t they? The show knows they can bring it when it comes to the finals. Melissa outlasting one of the 2 finalists that beat her before would be a good storyline for the show too – very unlikely to be Shawn but Gilles could be a possibility with his popularity seemingly lower than his original season.
Kirstie’s storyline is also played out to me but she has a big fanbase so I won’t be surprised to see her last through next week and beyond. We’ll see. Like Heidi says it’s like reading tea leaves. And I know my own biases come in based on who I like and who I don’t when I read them. lol
Thank you so much for doing this in a non-elimination week! I was really hoping you would…
I don’t think it’s that simple, Margaret. I think that they try to engineer that certain people stay longer than others for a variety of reasons. When they get to where it’s all people left that they engineered to stay longer, someone still has to go home, so that’s when you see the ball dropped on the couple at the low end of the totem pole. I think it’s probably a really complicated thought process and it could change from week to week.
I think Kirstie should go home next, but I doubt she will. I think Kelly might be in danger, but since we still have to include next week’s scores, it might be too soon to tell. I don’t want Melissa to go home, which surprises me because I was indifferent to her when the season first started, but she has grown on me, and I hope Tony amps up the choreography because I think she’s capable of it. On a side note, I just rewatched Shawn’s rumba and I really liked Melissa’s reaction when Shawn got her scores; Melissa seemed genuinely thrilled that Shawn got a 10. I think Melissa gets that this is for fun and not the be-all-end-all of the world. I don’t think that could be said about a certain other celebrity on the show.)
I’m actually really enjoying both Melissa AND Sabrina – both their dances and how much fun they seem to be having. Sabrina’s really loosened up a lot, I think. I also think that she and Melissa have made good friends with Shawn – all three seem to be having a great time. I think Apolo and Gilles will still make it to the finale with Shawn, but I would not be at all opposed to having an all female finale with those three ladies.
Yeah, go figure, I am actually enjoying both Melissa and Sabrina as well. I think because Melissa took some time away from the limelight and all the Poor Melissa crap has died down, I am really starting to warm up to her. And Sabrina, her smile lights up the room. I barely even notice that she is partnered with Louis, so that’s good, right!
All the crap that Apolo has been enduring with the underscoring, and the criticism, I do think the viewers will rally behind him even more, and vote like crazy. I hope he makes the finals.
I’ve definitely picked up on the vibe between Sabrina, Melissa and Shawn, too, and it’s really cute. I woudln’t be opposed to finale of those three, either. It would actually be my first choice. I love Apolo, too, though, so I wouldn’t mind seeing him either.
I don’t want to see Kirstie, Emmitt or Gilles, and I’ve fallen off the Kelly bandwagon I think.
I just really, really want Gilles voted off before the finale. Just to see the look on his face and Peta’s face would be awesome. I hate arrogance, and he comes across as SO COCKY. Blech.
I think Kelly is in trouble too unless she and Val really have a strong showing again. It’s more important than ever that they really bring it this week. Melissa and Kirstie need to make strong showings too. Any mistakes or lack luster performances and they are done.
I’m really confused how allowing 16 votes per line last week vs. 8 votes next week will come into play. I know people were probably confused last week and may not have used all their votes, but it almost seems last week might have been twice as important as next week as far as voting.
Thank you,PH,for this extra edition of DBTN and for the insights in your comments. Perspective always helps!
I agree with Jen about who may be staying or going based on played out storylines.
Although it would be cool to have an all female final.
I think Kelly and Valentin are in trouble, as much as I want Val to stick around. They apparently got the memo about the annoying showmance from their package last week and confessional, except Kelly making the lame remark, of wait for me in my dressing room. Oh Kelly. I didn’t know who Kelly was and I never saw season 1 but looking at old footage, that’s just her personality to not be much of a smiler. Plus with Kelly back at work and not being able to do the showmance may knock her off this week if she can’t bring some personality.
I think maybe Melissa’s neck injury may garner enough sympathy to keep her around longer than Kelly for sure plus she’s just so darn sweet. And Apolo getting criticism, and Shawn, from the judges I think is just going to have the Donald effect where he was obviously so underscored that it pissed the voters off. Which makes me think they wanted Shawn and Apolo to make it to the finals all along. I hope! Who will be the third finalist is the big question every week and that makes it exciting. I’m still rooting for Tony and Melissa at this point.
I am a Kelly fan and I’m voting for (not necessarily power voting admittedly) but last week, I was ticked off. That was NOT how you dance for votes, and I too am getting ANNOYED that IMO Kelly is buying into the hype of the showmance (there I said it). If Kelly were to have been eliminated, I would have said “Well, she didn’t really fight” and would have moved on. BUT we have another week approaching and I think this is the make or break week for her. I will say this, her fans are soooo not power voting. I’ve been reading their numbers and I’m like “Oh my God.”. Plus, I agree with PH that soap fans may be LOYAL, but they aren’t necessarily BIG numbers. Just ask the fans of Guiding Light, As the World Turns, One Life to Live and All My Children. But there is a difference between retweeting “I voted for Kelly” on twitter or actually JUST tweeting “I hope Kelly wins” or even tweeting “I KNOW Kelly’s fans are voting for her” and ACTUALLY SITTING YOUR BEHIND DOWN AND VOTING! And I don’t think Kelly’s fans are doing that. I hope I’m wrong, but so far, I just don’t see it happening just from the circle of Kelly fans I have talked to (and yes, they do not represent Kelly’s fans as a whole). I don’t know, Shawn’s dances made me want to vote for her. Sabrina’s dance MADE me vote for her because she looks like she WANTS to stay and is FIGHTING to stay. Plus, I want to see Sabrina do a Tango.
Okay, my wine glass is empty 🙂
Bristol is gone, it decreases the probability of a surprise elimination this week.
@Princess Heidi- Oh I know that Kirstie has more fans voting for her than Kelly. 🙁 I just meant I expect Kelly to be higher on the judges leader board next week, while I expect Kirstie to stay low. I could be wrong but I hope not, considering that I like Kelly and have never been a big Kirstie fan.
Looking at those scores, I think Kirstie and Emmitt will be the bottom two – or Apolo. But of course that’s not what I want, just my guess. And Apolo probably will get 9.5s or 10s this week, even if it won’t be his best dance, judges will make sure that he’s not in bottom two.
I don’t think Melissa is in danger this week. There are 4 points between Mel and Kirstie and I’m sure that with the Country week’s scores, there’ll be at least 7 points difference. I don’t think Kirstie can beat it. Specially this time, because Mel’s tango was quite good even with an injury and she was standing out in the team dance. I think she’s getting more votes than ever. And I’m sure she’ll be one of the best in Country team dance.
Violet, I agree that a lot of people are voting for Melissa. Perhaps she doesn’t have the crazy fanbase but the general audience loves her. I saw a lot of people voting for Sabrina, Gilles and Melissa. I think Sabrina will get eliminated in two weeks(not what I want, just my guess) and Melissa is more likeable than Gilles. Of course she might not make it to finals but I’m confident for this week 🙂 . I hope there won’t be a surprise elimination.
Eagle, it’s clear you don’t really understand this post. Perhaps you should read the whole thing before you comment? You talking about number of points shows a clear misunderstanding.
I did read the whole thing. Why do you think I didn’t understand it? Did I wrote something incorrectly?
It’s not points, it’s percentage of the total and how that translates into a number of votes required. When you say “4 point difference” – that means NOTHING out of context.
I know that. But English is not my native language. So, it’s easier for me to explain what I’m trying to say with “points” and “scores”, I can’t use percentages, margins etc… In short, I think Kirstie will need a lot of votes to beat Melissa, much more than right now(11,250 more votes per million votes). I hope it’s clear now.