DWTS Season 15, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers

This week, this particular post doesn’t mean a hill of beans because, as I’m sure you’ve all figured out by now, there was no elimination. But I’ve had a few requests for it so you can see how your favorites are doing. EVERYTHING could change on Monday night and I have some confidence that it will. I predict Sabrina stays in first place to get her past this particular week – and maybe past the following week. I think that Kirstie and Kelly – and maybe Melissa – are the next designated people who are considered disposable by the producers/judges.

Yes. Heidi is having a very cynical week. :-)

Anyway, let’s take a look at the numbers for this week:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Oh dear, everyone favorite over the top showmance which gets more forced by the day is in serious trouble. At least, this week. You’ll notice that everyone but Kirstie has at least a percentage point lead on her. That translates to more votes than I would be comfortable with if I were them – roughly 10,000. What does Kelly have to do to stick around beyond this pretend elimination week? ONE of the following:

–          Kelly needs to get 2,250 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie, OR;

–           Kelly needs to get 10,150 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

–          Kelly needs to get 11,250 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, Apolo, Melissa or Gilles, OR;

–          Kelly needs to get 15,750 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

Kelly has been relatively protected up to now by people with either much lower scores or fanbase issues of their own. But that protection is largely gone this week. Lots of people would be tempted to say that Kirstie is going to go because she was in the bottom two last week with Bristol. But Kirstie beat the spread on Bristol that was about three times the spread between her and Kelly. This is the part of the all star season where it gets really hard, cuz I’m really not sure if Kelly’s got juice or not. I’m inclined to say “not” – when compared to Kirstie. And I don’t think there is anyone else she can catch. Don’t give me crap about Soap fanbases – soaps are being cancelled left and right. Not to mention that it’s all relative – someone has to go, so you have to consider if other fanbases are bigger or more passionate.

But let’s assume that Kelly finds a miraculous way to safety. What does Kirstie needs need in order to stick around??  She needs ONE of the following:

–          Kirstie needs to get 7,900 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

–          Kirstie needs to get 11,250 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, Apolo, Melissa or Gilles, OR;

–          Kirstie needs to get 13,500 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

Based on those numbers, if there was an elimination this week I think it easily comes down to Kelly and Kirstie. I think the only other two people in potential danger would be Melissa and Sabrina – but the margins are too great this week. I think. We won’t really know until it happens. The path forward from here is really not clear. Emmitt has been fading into the woodwork lately, so it’s possible he’s in the lower tier as well.

But, when asked to make a guess, my guess is that Kelly would go home. If not her, Kirstie. Next week, we add a ton of points and everything can change. In any case, you can be sure the margins get smaller.