DWTS Season 15, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers
Well, tonight just pissed me off – even before we got to the word “frippery”. Ahem. Melissa had a bench and a campfire and a whole bunch of leg lifts. Kelly had a stage coach and the standard Chmerkovskiy run up the stairs…and Shawn has frippery. In what f&*king universe does Len give Shawn and Kirstie Alley the same score – two weeks in a row. This show has jumped the shark, totally.
Okay, the truly hilarious part about “frippery” is watching Derek mouth the word silently – you could almost see him wonder what the hell that word means. LOL. 🙂
Gilles? I have this urge to punch him. Repeatedly.
My favorite dance of the night was Apolo’s – finally scored him appropriately. I do wonder if Shawn’s turn is next or if she’s running away with the votes. But I have to say – I didn’t see much difference in quality between Sabrina, Melissa and Shawn. Shawn had a tad bit of stiffness due to her knee (think she could stop screwing around with Sabrina?? Love that all those CMM girls are bffs, but come on) but still. I didn’t see a two point difference between the two of them. Instead, over the course of two weeks there is a four point difference. Total bull. But this is all about protecting Sabrina and Melissa for a week or two.
I could go on all night. I’ll stop. I should be used to the storyboarding of this show by now.
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Well, I think Kelly might just be toast. Perhaps they want Kirstie around so she can be the easy elimination next week when the judges pull the trigger. It’s a theory Courtney and I discussed a bit. It wouldn’t surprise me at all. But ya know, there were so many points handed out that there are pretty small margins between all the dancers. You think Sabrina is safe?? I wouldn’t be so sure. She probably is, but I don’t know I would put any serious cash on it. Kelly likely protects Sabrina…but we’ll see. What does Kelly need in order to be safe?? She needs ONE of the following:
– Kelly needs 5,210 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie, OR;
– Kelly needs 5,950 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;
– Kelly needs 8,180 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;
– Kelly needs 8,950 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;
– Kelly needs 11,200 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;
– Kelly needs 11,900 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;
– Kelly needs 14,900 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.
As you can see, those are some pretty small numbers at the bottom half of the leaderboard. Unfortunately for Kelly, those lower people are Kirstie and Emmitt. That said, Kirstie has been in the bottom two and Kelly has never been tested up to this point. Can she get the votes?? I honestly don’t know. My gut says no and that they over played their showmance. Or, are they petting Kirstie a lot because they know she’s going home and they want her to go out on a high?? Dare we hope for a Shocking Gilles elimination?? Unfortunately, probably not.
But back to Kirstie. What does she need to do to stick around? She needs ONE of the following in order to stay tomorrow:
– Kirstie needs Kelly to not cover the spread, OR
– Kirstie needs 750 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;
– Kirstie needs 2,980 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;
– Kirstie needs 3,720 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;
– Kirstie needs 5,950 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;
– Kirstie needs 6,700 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;
– Kirstie needs 9,700 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.
Now, if the shippers are out of control, then Emmitt could actually be the one in trouble here. Is Kirstie getting those kind of votes over someone like Emmitt?? Well, Emmitt has been fading into the woodwork – but I don’t know. I have a hard time seeing Kelly cover that spread, so it may be irrelevant. I have no idea what’s going to happen.
Oh Emmitt, are you getting votes? I keep forgetting you’re on the show, but that could just be me. What does Emmitt need to stick around?? ONE of the following:
– Emmitt needs Kelly and Kirstie to not cover the spread.
– Emmitt needs 2,230 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;
– Emmitt needs 2,980 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;
– Emmitt needs 5,210 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;
– Emmitt needs 6,700 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;
– Emmitt needs 8,950 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.
As you can see, the spreads are too small. I don’t think that Shawn or Gilles are in any danger, but that the bottom two is two out of Kelly, Kirstie and Emmitt. Based on the scoring, I’m thinking that they have Kelly down as the next boot, possibly because ratings are involved and she’s not getting votes anyway. They are at the point in the show where just about everyone is popular for one reason or another and they not only want to have the best dancers in the final six, but they want to have a guilt free elimination next week when they (the judges) have to make the call. They will be somewhat backlash free if that person is Kirstie. That would leave them with a final six of Shawn, Apolo, Melissa, Gilles, Sabrina and possibly Emmitt. That’s pretty damn good. But it’s an all star season – it should be.
So, I think that the bottom two are going to be Kelly and Kirstie with Kelly going home. Could be Kirstie going home, but I’m betting Kelly. I would not be surprised to be wrong. If it’s a big surprise, I’ll do a numbers wrap up. Cuz I gotta wrap THIS up. 🙂
hmm,
head says its kelly & val, heart says its melissa & tony, but hope its gilles & peta.
we shall see
I agree it will likely be Kelly with the outside chance it will be Kirstie, but oh, how I would love it to be Giles.
I agree….I think it’s Kelly going home as well. If there is a surprise elimination, please, I hope it’s GILLES!!
Oh, and I asked my boss who she thinks is going home and she thinks it will be Kirstie.
PLEASE, let it be Gilles. There’s not enough room for his ego in that studio.
I would love to see Gilles leave. I wasn’t a fan of his the first time around and am not this time either. That shirt last night was too much! As long as Shawn and Apolo are safe, I’m OK with whoever goes.
“And the couple with the lowest combined score and therefore going home tonight……….Gilles and Peta”
Flash to Gilles sporting his infamous Bollywood “O” face.
Alright, I can dream can’t I?!?!?
I thought I would love Gilkes again. But I don’t. He could go home. I think Kirstie could stick around but I would not mind if she did. I hope Kelly stays. I hope Melissa stays. We will know soon enough. I finally got to watch online this morning. My transmission of ABC was disrupted by the storm. My week 6 poem will come tomorrow.
I am so happy to see so many of you feel as I do about Gilles. However, that begs the question – where the hell is he getting all the votes? Please let him go soon……
Dee – dare to dream!!! I’ll dream with you…
And I’m with Jane – so long as Shawn and Apolo are safe, all is right in the world. Even if I may not have power back by tonight to actually *see* the results…
I hope it’s Gilles. I mean he’s in the middle of scores, went first, and has been on almost everyone’s last nerve. What’s his fan base really? It’s been 4 years since SATC movie came out. He couldn’t win with Cheryl, the most popular female pro, and now his chances lessen with Peta.
If there’s any mention of a shock tonight, my money is on Gilles. It’d be proper payback for his behavior and the judges over praise this season.
I think since there are only three men, Gilles is getting his votes from women who just find him sexy, even if they’re not that familiar with him. I’m more surprised that Sabrina’s getting the votes, even with the high scores. She was in the real bottom two very early. And I don’t think Louis is one of the more popular male pros, most likely less popular than Tony.
I think that Emmitt and Kelly will be in the bottom two with Emmitt going home. When you go on Facebook and other sites there just seems to be no talk about him at all, like he is forgotten. On the other hand, there are lots of people talking about Kelly and Val. I actually think that Gilles is probably third and that Kirstie is covering that spread over him. I just want the whole CMM team to move onto next week. However, I am a little worried about Shawn next week with Len’s bias and it coming down to the judges only. I agree with everyone else, the only shocking elimination I want to see, is Gilles going home.
I agree with your predictions and it should be Kelly BUT we know that things don’t always seem to work out that way on this show – mainly because the juding is so screwy this year and especially Len with his NO AGENDA – sure Len.
I would love there to be a surprise elimination and it be Gilles. But somewhere he is getting the votes. Crazy people.
Thanks for the breakdown – the %’s sure are close.
My gut tells me it will be Emmitt,Sabrina,and Kelly with Emmitt going home.I hope that Kirstie will be called safe early
Gilles please, that would be so cool, but I think he will a least land in the bottom 3. If they put Shawn in the fake bottom 3 like they did with Apolo I will be so mad.
Totally not related to who’s going home, but i think the reason Len called out Derek on props and not Melissa/Kelly is because Derek has used some sort of prop in pretty much every dance so far (The fog and circular stage thing last week, the lockers, tables, and football field set up for the Call Me Maybe group dance, the mattresses they fell onto at the end of they “quickstep”, etc) while Melissa and Tony & Kelly and Val didn’t.
If Kelly goes home tonight, I will not watch DWTS no more. I quit watching a after the 3rd season, because the judges had their favorites, it seems like they still do. Len is so fuddy-duddy. Shawn, Melissa, and Sabrina are their favorites, especially Melissa. If anyone can dance,besides Kelly, it is Apolo, he can DANCE, hope he takes the trophy again. Is their romance between Kelly and Val?
Always like these posts…
Let me just ask one question… Do you guys know how many million votes DwtS get overall?
AbsolutelyAlice- are you kidding me, EVERYBODY is using props, Melissa had huge machine in her tango las week, a bar and music box on her lindy hop, stages and people holding feathers on her samba. Derek was not alone in the group dance, just like apolo had status in his foxtrot, a freaking ali in his hip hop, a bed in his samba, this could go on and on and on, but again, EVERYBODY IS using props.
The drama of watching the C Brothers in the bottom two tonight should make for an interesting last 5 minutes of show tonight…. I hope Kelly does not go but Kirstie may have more fan power.
Thank you, Laila. (#19)
We don’t actually know if Sabrina is doing better in the votes or not. She’s been at the top of the leader board since she was in the bottom two, or someone with fewer votes than her has been below her. No way of knowing.
I call bullshit, Alice. The props were not used in the dance except for Derek jumping off the tractor which is no different than jumping off the stairs. You don’t call the choreography brilliant and the movement great and then give them an 8.5 unless you DO have an agenda.
Someone saying “I don’t have an agenda” is the same verbal tell as some one saying “honestly” – it often means the opposite.
I would imagine she’s doing alright with votes. If I recall, didn’t she go home in season 5 with bigger margins than there are this season?
I can’t imagine her leaving after a perfect 30, but stranger things have happened. I just want her to beat the week 6 curse.
Sabrina is not leaving today, but I think she will probably be eliminated in the double elimination at week 8.
In general, I don’t care who leaves tonight, provided it’s someone from Team GS. In the best of all possible worlds, it would be Gilles, but I’m not holding my breath. I’m okay with either Kelly or Kirstie going – at the beginning of the season I was rooting for Kelly (and even threw a few votes her way) but she and Val pretty much lost me during the week they had contemporary. Emmitt’s been pretty much a non-entity for me – I haven’t particularly loved any of his dances, and other than his really overscored bolero, I haven’t really disliked any of his dances. My main fear is that he will take the place of someone else I really want to keep going (all of Team CMM).
You are talking some Absolutely crap Alice wasn’t Mellisa & Tony in that GROUP dance, and do tell what the hell, do you think DWTS would let them fall off the stairs onto the damn floor?. The round stage was not a prop and as for the fog – be real and stop whinning me up.
I just hope all of Team Call Me Maybe stay around this week. I think they all deserve it over anybody from Team GS.
I would LOVE a surprise Gilles boot.
I hope the couples picking the “dance fusion” for next week is as entertaining as when they picked each other’s dances a couple weeks ago.
I want to see a Jive/Rumba
I hope there’s a Paso/Tango fusion and Shawn and Derek do it! Talk about a potential 30.
A shocking Gilles elimination??? I’m in!!!:)
As to who is giving him votes, it’s the judges. He’s been consistently overscored from the beginning to keep him out of any danger.
As to who goes tonight, something tells me that some fanbases are being overrated, others lowbrowed and that it won’t be Kelly leaving but someone rather unexpected. The show did seem to lay the grounds for Val besting his bro a few weeks back and what more dramatic way to do that than with the first ever Chmerkovskiy & Partner bottom 2? That 2 point bonus to Kirstie could hurt more than help. Who knows. Meanwhile, Emmitt’s luck with good running order has held out the last couple weeks and he was particularly crowd pleasin nemorable last week, so doubt it’s him…
Lol, I can’t tell if you’re kidding or serious, Fig 😛 I don’t know much about these “fusion dances”, but as I was telling someone last night, I almost think they will be picking from a pre-set list of fusions – because I think some fusions (like a rumba/jive) are going to be nary impossible to do, based on the rhythm & tempo of the dances. I could totally see Gilles picking a dance like paso doble from column A and a dance like waltz from column B and sticking it to Shawn & Derek with a smarmy grin. I think (and this is just me speculating) the fusion is probably going to be done to one song, so the two dances are going to have to both fit that one song. Easiest fusion I can think of off the top of my head? Quickstep/jive. The tempos & steps actually mesh together quite well, and I’ve seen many a show dance combining those two styles. Tango/paso doble is another fairly easy fusion. Paso/Viennese waltz could also work, if the song is aggressive enough.
Then again, I could be totally off-base, and maybe they’ll throw something at us like “hip hop/rumba fusion” or “paso doble/polka fusion”. Oy vey. But I guess we are going to see a demo of it tonight – I think the troupe is performing an example.
As far as i’m concerned, this elimination is all up to the fan bases.
There’s less than a 2% spread in scores that technically no one is protected with their scores. People in the top half have the advantage but it’s a small one. So people like Gilles, Kelly, Emmitt, whose fan bases have yet to be tested this season are towards the bottom and we’ll see who comes out victorious.
I know it means nothing, but Kirstie has the most Twitter followers than anyone else so that plus her previous B2 appearance may keep her safe. Plus, she’s easy fodder for next week’s judge elimination.
Since when is an off-camera crash mat for someone falling 10+ feet a prop?!? I don’t recall Derek & Shawn using any props during a dance, just staging and setting type things that all pairs use to amp up production.
LOL to a Jive/Rumba. That combo just sounds scary. lol
If Gilles is eliminated, I will laugh so hard, that I will fall down. I don’t think this proves anything, but so far this season Pamela is the only person to go home after having the lowest judges scores.
MAtt- paso/a.tango is my dream for Shawn and Derek, Derek did a similar fusion with Allison Holker in season 13 and It was amazing. But others picking for them it will be hard to get this combo for sure.
I think out of all of the pros, Derek definitely has the advantage with a fusion dance. Any time they have challenged him with something different, he has hit a home run.
I think it depends on the options, and who is picking for whom. Melissa and Tony and Apolo and Karina didn’t seem to be trying to sock it to anyone during the last “pick for your competition” opportunity. Shawn and Derek I think really tried to give Helio and Chelsie the best option left, and Sabrina also seems to want to be nice (though if Louis has his way, Shawn and Derek would get the worst choice available). Everyone else might try and handicap their competition – again, it probably depends upon how they feel about the couple they’re picking for. For instance, I doubt if Val or Maks would try to seriously handicap each other – or Peta.
Rumba/ Waltz
jive/Quickstep
I could see a Tango/ Cha Cha ( Chelsie did this combo during her audition on SYTYCD)
Foxtrot cha cha – Shawn and Derek foxtrot was almost a fusion, I even remember Bruno mention, and It got me thinking that with a little bit more cha cha it would actually be a awesome fusion
Paso/ A. tango – Derek and Allison
Jason Guilpim (don’t know his last name) did a Samba/ Cha Cha / Waltz/ Jive and A. Tango combo during the last season of SYTYCD and it was pretty good.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGCrlP4PG9s
He also did v.waltz with paso and cha cha for pasha and Iveta a couple seasons ago and it was awesome. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBe2AVtSNJA
I’d love to see a Paso/Tango done by Shawn & Derek, but I doubt anyone would give them something like that as they know Derek’s Pasos and Tangos are usually pretty amazing. I’m hoping we get a list of premade fusions, otherwise some poor couples are going to get some mix like a Samba/Waltz to a the theme song from “Jaws.”
Laila # 40 – thank you for the fusion info – interesting
*sigh* I am prepared for Kelly to go home. Many Kelly fans I talked to were not able to vote or my favorite, were just furious about the scores and giving up. Out of all these people, I think Emmitt should go. It was a fun, Emmitt Smith dance. He gives them all the time. It is not enough. I hope he goes tbh. Then, the judges can get rid of Kirstie and then Gilles/Apolo will be knocked out in the Double Elimination and we can finally have an All Female Semi Finals/ Finals. Ok, I just lapsed into my dream ending. 😛
Your percentages are not right. Here’s the correct table(1=6.725):
Sabrina-13.16
Apolo-12.86
Melissa-12.78(closer to 12.79 actually)
Shawn-12.56(.565)
Gilles-12.49(closer to 12.50)
Emmitt-12.26(closer to 12.27)
Kirstie-12.19
Kelly-11.67(closer to 11.68)
I hope it’s not Gilles. I don’t want it to be Kelly either, but I know it’s not gonna be Shawn (which I’d really love to see), so I’ll settle for Kelly as long as it’s not Gilles.
I hope it’s not Shawn! I just don’t understand why Len is holding her & Derek to a higher standard than the rest..same as Carrie Ann calling that catch a lift in last weeks Rumba!
About my previous comment-
Hey, I was only offering up an explaination, no need to get all worked up.
This results show is making me nervous – Apolo and Karina, Melissa and Tony, and Sabrina and Louis are the ones in danger. I don’t want any of them to go home, but since it’s one of them, I hope it’s Sabrina and Louis. Arghh! Also, I’m bumming that Derek is taking a week off; I just hope he choreographs instead of Mark.
What i dont understand is htf she go home like come on im and derek and shawn fan but im not gonna like sabrina is great and im is compelte shock like everyone comes on here complaining cause there favorite i believe if they pick a phone up and vote there favorite will stay and its crazi cause it happen to her before at the same spot and i dont get kirstie and kelly should have went home sorry to there fans but thats what i think srry 🙁
That fusion dance is just plain dumb.
Tonight’s elimination almost seems too cruel.
#JENNIFER I KNO RIGHT I DON’T UNDERSTAND IT
Jennifer – I agree, I knew she would not make the final but got cut the same time as last week, sounded like cruel joke, really sad for her.
Did not think she was finals bound and would leave in a double elimination, but it does seem cruel her leaving the same week. But I can see tv producers all happy thinking it makes good tv.
But not sad for Louis. Not at all.
I still think no elimination next week due to Hurricame Sandy is a silly decision.
That’s a typo from last week, bookworm. The numbers I did the analysis with are still correct. The table I paste into the post is transcribed from the original into a format easy to read.
Thanks Heidi for breaking it down for us, I can’t think of any other site that does this. I do get dizzy at times trying to read all these numbers but I certainly get a better understanding about this voting process and can see how ” surprising” eliminations happen. Having said that, I’m surprised of the elimination tonight
Saying the same thing on this post that I did on Court’s…
Guys…if someone is posting like they are purposely trying to wind up most of the other people who post here….they probably are. Let me call them trolls while the rest of you behave yourselves. 🙂
I have nothing against Kirstie, but just as I thought Bristol needed to go because she was not the best dancer I have to say I still feel the same way regarding Sabrina being eliminated tonight and Kirstie staying. I realize that this is not suppose to be a show about who is the best dancer, but I still like to see the better dancers stay or why have it be about dancing? It’s not even that I was a huge fan of Sabrina just feel she deserved to stay longer. Her elimination was cruel, but when it came down to Apollo and her I was glad Apollo stayed. The two of them didn’t belong to be there in the first place although I believe Tom said one of the couples were not necessarily in the bottom two. Sure wish we knew who was the true bottom two.
I will never understand Len and his scoring. For him to say he thinks Shawn and Kirstie’s dance were just about the same was ridiculous. I think Kirstie was way overscored this week and then they threw the extra two points at her. Getting two extra points for a slap on the butt compared to what the other dancers did??? I agree with the other posters who already mentioned Len’s comment about props that seem to apply only to Derek just baffles me. I just hope Derek is okay and is only out for the week.
IMO something has to be changed with the scoring/voting process and I think this season of any season has proven that.