DWTS Season 15, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, tonight just pissed me off – even before we got to the word “frippery”.  Ahem. Melissa had a bench and a campfire and a whole bunch of leg lifts. Kelly had a stage coach and the standard Chmerkovskiy run up the stairs…and Shawn has frippery. In what f&*king universe does Len give Shawn and Kirstie Alley the same score – two weeks in a row. This show has jumped the shark, totally.

Okay, the truly hilarious part about “frippery” is watching Derek mouth the word silently – you could almost see him wonder what the hell that word means. LOL.  :-)

Gilles? I have this urge to punch him. Repeatedly.

My favorite dance of the night was Apolo’s – finally scored him appropriately. I do wonder if Shawn’s turn is next or if she’s running away with the votes. But I have to say – I didn’t see much difference in quality between Sabrina, Melissa and Shawn. Shawn had a tad bit of stiffness due to her knee (think she could stop screwing around with Sabrina?? Love that all those CMM girls are bffs, but come on) but still. I didn’t see a two point difference between the two of them. Instead, over the course of two weeks there is a four point difference. Total bull.  But this is all about protecting Sabrina and Melissa for a week or two.

I could go on all night. I’ll stop. I should be used to the storyboarding of this show by now.

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Well, I think Kelly might just be toast.  Perhaps they want Kirstie around so she can be the easy elimination next week when the judges pull the trigger. It’s a theory Courtney and I discussed a bit. It wouldn’t surprise me at all.  But ya know, there were so many points handed out that there are pretty small margins between all the dancers. You think Sabrina is safe?? I wouldn’t be so sure.  She probably is, but I don’t know I would put any serious cash on it. Kelly likely protects Sabrina…but we’ll see. What does Kelly need in order to be safe?? She needs ONE of the following:

-          Kelly needs 5,210 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie, OR;

-          Kelly needs 5,950 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

-          Kelly needs 8,180 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;

-          Kelly needs 8,950 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

-          Kelly needs 11,200 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

-          Kelly needs 11,900 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

-          Kelly needs 14,900 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

As you can see, those are some pretty small numbers at the bottom half of the leaderboard. Unfortunately for Kelly, those lower people are Kirstie and Emmitt. That said, Kirstie has been in the bottom two and Kelly has never been tested up to this point. Can she get the votes?? I honestly don’t know. My gut says no and that they over played their showmance.  Or, are they petting Kirstie a lot because they know she’s going home and they want her to go out on a high??  Dare we hope for a Shocking Gilles elimination?? Unfortunately, probably not.

But back to Kirstie. What does she need to do to stick around?  She needs ONE of the following in order to stay tomorrow:

-          Kirstie needs Kelly to not cover the spread, OR

-          Kirstie needs 750 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

-          Kirstie needs 2,980 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;

-          Kirstie needs 3,720 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

-          Kirstie needs 5,950 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

-          Kirstie needs 6,700 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

-          Kirstie needs 9,700 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

Now, if the shippers are out of control, then Emmitt could actually be the one in trouble here. Is Kirstie getting those kind of votes over someone like Emmitt?? Well, Emmitt has been fading into the woodwork – but I don’t know.  I have a hard time seeing Kelly cover that spread, so it may be irrelevant.  I have no idea what’s going to happen.

Oh Emmitt, are you getting votes? I keep forgetting you’re on the show, but that could just be me. What does Emmitt need to stick around?? ONE of the following:

-          Emmitt needs Kelly and Kirstie to not cover the spread.

-          Emmitt needs 2,230 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;

-          Emmitt needs 2,980 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

-          Emmitt needs 5,210 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

-          Emmitt needs 6,700 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

-          Emmitt needs 8,950 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

As you can see, the spreads are too small. I don’t think that Shawn or Gilles are in any danger, but that the bottom two is two out of Kelly, Kirstie and Emmitt.  Based on the scoring, I’m thinking that they have Kelly down as the next boot, possibly because ratings are involved and she’s not getting votes anyway. They are at the point in the show where just about everyone is popular for one reason or another and they not only want to have the best dancers in the final six, but they want to have a guilt free elimination next week when they (the judges) have to make the call. They will be somewhat backlash free if that person is Kirstie.  That would leave them with a final six of Shawn, Apolo, Melissa, Gilles, Sabrina and possibly Emmitt.  That’s pretty damn good. But it’s an all star season – it should be.

So, I think that the bottom two are going to be Kelly and Kirstie with Kelly going home. Could be Kirstie going home, but I’m betting Kelly. I would not be surprised to be wrong.  If it’s a big surprise, I’ll do a numbers wrap up. Cuz I gotta wrap THIS up. :-)