As everyone knows by now, no one went home this week. But in case you want to know how the judges scores are going to affect who ultimately goes home, I thought I would run the numbers for the week. After the Week 8 dances, I’ll run the numbers again and you can compare.
Here are the Week 7 scores and percentages:
As you can see, Melissa appears to be safely at the top of the leader board. So was Sabrina. The difference this week is that there is a MUCH larger spread between the top and the bottom. Unfortunately for Melissa (and others) there are two more dance scores to be added to each celeb before anyone is eliminated, which will tighten the margins and make it easier for someone to go home. When Sabrina went home, there was only 6.5 points between the top and the bottom. Right now there are 10 points between Kirstie and Melissa – but that is likely to change.
I think it likely that Shawn and Apolo are safe – of course we can’t be sure, but that’s what my instincts are saying. I’m also inclined to believe that Emmitt is safe. But, this is where predicting who goes home gets extremely difficult…almost impossible…to call.
Looking at the list of the celebrities that are left, I’m inclined to think that Melissa is the one in most danger when you aren’t looking at the scores and the margins. Just looking at the list, she seems (all other things being equal) like the one most likely to get the boot. But she’s at the top of the leader board. So, what would it take for her to actually leave?? ALL of the following would have to happen for Melissa to be eliminated:
- Kirstie would have to get 45,500 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Apolo would have to get 24,800 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Gilles would have to get 22,800 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Emmitt would have to get 18,600 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Kelly would have to get 12,400 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Shawn would have to get 4,200 more votes per million votes cast.