DWTS Season 15, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers
As everyone knows by now, no one went home this week. But in case you want to know how the judges scores are going to affect who ultimately goes home, I thought I would run the numbers for the week. After the Week 8 dances, I’ll run the numbers again and you can compare.
Here are the Week 7 scores and percentages:
As you can see, Melissa appears to be safely at the top of the leader board. So was Sabrina. The difference this week is that there is a MUCH larger spread between the top and the bottom. Unfortunately for Melissa (and others) there are two more dance scores to be added to each celeb before anyone is eliminated, which will tighten the margins and make it easier for someone to go home. When Sabrina went home, there was only 6.5 points between the top and the bottom. Right now there are 10 points between Kirstie and Melissa – but that is likely to change.
I think it likely that Shawn and Apolo are safe – of course we can’t be sure, but that’s what my instincts are saying. I’m also inclined to believe that Emmitt is safe. But, this is where predicting who goes home gets extremely difficult…almost impossible…to call.
Looking at the list of the celebrities that are left, I’m inclined to think that Melissa is the one in most danger when you aren’t looking at the scores and the margins. Just looking at the list, she seems (all other things being equal) like the one most likely to get the boot. But she’s at the top of the leader board. So, what would it take for her to actually leave?? ALL of the following would have to happen for Melissa to be eliminated:
- Kirstie would have to get 45,500 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Apolo would have to get 24,800 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Gilles would have to get 22,800 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Emmitt would have to get 18,600 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Kelly would have to get 12,400 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
- Shawn would have to get 4,200 more votes per million votes cast.
It seems to me that it would be very unlikely for Melissa to go home in this scenario because that’s a lot of votes. With the exception of Shawn, the supposed big vote getters are stuck down at the bottom of the leader board with margins that they may or may not be able to overcome. Gilles, Emmitt and Kelly are somewhat questionable. I don’t think Gilles is doing it but Emmitt and Kelly might be. But that doesn’t matter, as long as there are at least two people who can’t cover the spread Melissa is safe.
So, what about Kirstie, way down there at the bottom of the leader board?? Because it’s a double elimination next, in order for Kirstie to not be eliminated she would have to get TWO of the following:
- Kirstie would have to get 20,700 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;
- Kirstie would have to get 22,800 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;
- Kirstie would have to get 27,000 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;
- Kirstie would have to get 33,100 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, OR;
- Kirstie would have to get 41,400 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;
- Kirstie would have to get 45,500 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa.
Kirstie was in the bottom two in Week 4 and is still here, which makes me think that she had the juice to beat the lesser known people (like Melissa, Sabrina) when the margin was small enough, but maybe not when the margins get wider. She beat Sabrina when there was a less than 10k spread between them, but she was in the bottom two with Bristol when Apolo was about 13k votes separated from her and Sabrina was about 17k votes separated from her. This week, there is more than 20k between her and Apolo and nearly 23k between her and Gilles. Neither have truly been tested in terms of fanbase against Kirstie, but I do think she would go home this week if there were an elimination. She would almost definitely go home if there was a *double* elimination.
Who else is in jeopardy of leaving?? Just looking at relative popularity?? I’d say it’s really going to be a surprise who the next person is. I’m thinking Kelly or (possible wishful thinking alert) maybe Gilles. Since Gilles is lower on the leader board, we’ll look at him. What would have to happen for him to be eliminated?? Any TWO of the following:
- Gilles would need for Kirstie to NOT get 22,800 more votes per million votes cast than him, AND;
- Gilles would need for Apolo to NOT get 2,100 more votes per million votes cast than him, AND;
- Gilles would need to get 4,200 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, AND;
- Gilles would need to get 10,350 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, AND;
- Gilles would need to get 18,600 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, AND;
- Gilles would need to get 22,800 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa.
Maybe I’m crazy, but I think Apolo gets the 2k easily and that Gilles might not be beating the spread between him and Emmitt or him and Kelly– which means Gilles would likely go home. I could really be hoping for this, but it seems plausible to me. Odds are we’ll never find out because when they add two more scores it will probably level the leader board and it will be strictly popularity…at which point we could be back to Melissa and Kelly.
And, since this is just an exercise to show what the margins were and set us up for next week, I’ll just leave it there. For now. :-)
The elimination process gets more and more interesting. It’s not as clear as the other seasons. The result of having more famous people.
Hope melissa & tony dont get eliminated love this couple routing for them to the finals. !!!!
Thanks P Heidi for the post
Comment:
The two dances will tend to put a loop hole in the above predictions. As always nice to see where they stand for now.
It is very possible Gilles goes this double elimination. It can’t come quick enough to suit this person typing this comment.
Kirstie should be the other elimination. Will it be? The dances may all to equal this next Monday then the post should stand as posted.
Happiness is watching Gilles elimination this week.
I am a Chelsie person, I know she’ll do nothing to under cut the dance on purpose, she’s a professional first and formost.
I do hope her curse shines through this week and Gilles is out on double elimination night.
It’s still close. After Sabrina’s shocking elimination, I think the viewers are going to take action and send more votes.
I don’t think Apolo, Shawn or Emmitt will leave the competition next week. From now on, it looks like anybody’s game.
By the way Tom Bergeron was on The Talk yesterday. He said week 8 and 9 are double eliminations!
I like how I’m beginning to understand these more now. I think had they done the judges elimination last week, Kirstie would definitely be the one they would have chosen to eliminate. I didn’t realize how no elimination (especially this late in the game) changes things so much…
Sweepster, I’m just posting this, because I couldn’t figure out what exactly you were saying with this line, “The dances may all to equal this next Monday then the post should stand as posted.”
PH has had a few Numbers posts in the last couple of weeks, when we also had a couple weeks without an elimination, and showed just how much it changes things. Even if the dances are all the same, and the scores are all the same as Monday, things are still going to be incredibly different, because the percentages between the top and bottom is going to be DECREASED with the additional points, making a lot LESS for the bottom of the leader board to overcome people above.
Or, you could have meant something different, and I just hadn’t figured that out!
FASCINATING! Thanks Heidi and your instincts have a big habit of coming true too always. Oh, I hope it’s Gilles to leave this upcoming week!
Happiness for me would be Gilles leaving this week. His time is done. If he makes it through to Week 9 and that’s another double elimination, he would most certainly go then. If he’s in the finals, I will not be watching. Peta hasn’t been dancing like season and like it was said in another post, I think she’s trying to let him sink his own ship. She doesn’t deserve to win back to back MBT’s.
Two double eliminations in a row are just ridiculous and downright cruel. The only plus side would be, the ejection of Gilles from the ballroom. But other than that, I hate them. If Apolo leaves, I am not so sure how invested I will be thereafter. This season has been somewhat of a disappointment for me.
How many months is it until we get our “Old Faithful” back? No All-Stars, just our favorite regular DWTS. Just like your old favorite pair of jeans, “You Love Them, Just As They Are”…..
I just found this site and I think it’s great! Just a thought… do you think abc boards are an indication of how popular the celebs are? It seems to me that there celeb popularity order is:
1. Kelly
2. (ugh!) Gilles
3. Apolo/Shawn
4. Melissa
5. Kirstie
6. Emmitt.
I would love to see Gilles go but I don’t think it’s likely – given how people over there complain that he was underscored (!) For me, it’s Apolo/Shawn/Melissa for the finals, but I think Kelly has such a huge fan base, and Gilles is so popular, it’s going to be them in the finals.
Interesting post. I think Melissa may be getting more votes than we think. True, she probably didn’t come in with a big fan base, but I’m thinking she may have grown on a lot of people. I love watching her interaction with Tony, and she dances well. I’m guessing others are really enjoying that as well. I think she got a lot of the average viewers to vote for her last time too, because otherwise, she wouldn’t have made it to the finals. The first few weeks of Season 8 could have been the Bachelor fans, plus all the people who felt sorry for her being dumped on national TV, plus the fact that she did so well with only two days of practice for her first dance. But I don’t think that got her to the end. Reasons I think the average viewer is voting for her – as mentioned, her dancing and her interaction with Tony, but also she’s so excited and grateful to still be here, she doesn’t act like she’s entitled to high scores (like Mr. Ego), and she’s just so normal. She and Tony are both parents and have families, so they need to juggle work and family, and I think people relate to that – and I know other celebs have families as well, but no other pros do. Plus there’s any Tony fans or long-time fans of the show that think it’s high time Tony won. Also, there have been many times I’ve tried calling in phone votes for her, and gotten a busy signal, over and over again. So I ended up giving those votes to Apolo (and I wasn’t getting a continuous busy signal with him). So I don’t know. But I’m hopeful that Melissa is appealing to enough people to make it to the finals. Or at least survive this double elimination.
Tina, no offense, but I’d take anything you read on the ABC boards with a grain of salt, because that place is a hotbed of crazy. Since it’s not moderated, people tend to run amok, and those screaming the loudest (likely the Kelly fans) don’t always represent the greatest majority.
Sandy, I feel as you do, if Apolo and Karina leave that might be it for me. As much as I like Derek, and Shawn, they don’t draw me in the way he and Maria did last season. If any of the three, Kelly, Gilles, or Kirstie make the finals, it would completely turn me off to watching to the end.
Tina, I would add that I don’t see Gilles as that popular on the ABC boards. How did you reach that conclusion?
Hi Heidi, thank you for the post – very interesting to see how things change from one to week to another when there is no elimination.
@katarina: I just read through the boards and team pages and found a lot of praise/support for Gilles. People saying how he deserves to win and was “robbed” last time…
Thanks for the numbers Heidi!
I definitely think, just based on these numbers of course, the same thing. There is no way I see Apolo NOT getting the couple thousand more votes per million than Gilles, nor do I see Gilles beating the point spread against Emmitt or Shawn.
What a shame it will change before the double elimination. But maybe not enough to keep Gilles safe.
Fingers crossed.
Tina, are there a lot of people praising Gilles, or the same people praising him over and over? ABC keeps padding his scores so I’m thinking he’s not “all that” with the public.
Maybe, the season started on a pretty high level, because each contestant had been there before. The flip side is that it’s hard to ramp things up as the season moves on. Voila! these “gimmicks.” 2 dances at a time; 3 dancers at a time. Now, they quickly reduce 7 dancers down to 3.
The ABC boards mean less than nothing since very few sane people actually spend any time there. Which explains why all the Kelly fans are over there. That place is full of nuts and as we’ve said numerous times on this site – we really don’t want to hear about it because nothing good comes out of it.
As for the assertion that Melissa is probably getting tons of votes because she’s so likable, etc?? Yeah, maybe so – the problem is, nearly everyone left has a huge fanbase and it’s not whether Melissa is popular, it’s if she’s MORE popular than the other contestants. I would love to see her in the final with Shawn and Apolo – that would be fantastic. But I’m not at all confident that Melissa can get past Gilles and Emmitt.
My dream is to have an All Female Finale with Shawn, Melissa and Kelly. However, realistically, I think we are about to lose a boat load of women in the coming weeks. *sigh*. Thanks for the numbers, PH!
Thanks for the numbers. I ha e the feeling that Gilles is popular. Just reading some blogs, most favoring him to win.
My concern about Apollo is the splitting votes between Olympians in that case that’s favor Shawn, she has Derek and I can’t see anyone taken her place in the final. The romance between Kelly and Val has make her very popular, I have chat with some fans of the show say they love sense of romance in this couple.
I’m not looking forward for the result show, I got the funny feeling is Apollo who is leaving maybe with Kristie.
If fans think that what is transpiring between Kelly & Val is actual “romance”, then I think some of them are very, very gullible – and have a very warped perception of what genuine attraction looks like.
And not to say that “some blogs I read” mean anything in the great scheme of things, carol, but how many of those blogs you read are written by Gilles fans themselves? Heidi sent me a link to one yesterday that was so poorly written and had such an obvious pro-Gilles bias that it was obvious the author was suffering from some serious delusions, because she was chucking logic out the door in favor of “The judges are deliberately underscoring Gilles because they want him to win!”
Not that any of this really makes any difference – as we always say, the “internet fan” is the minority. The majority of viewers are the casual tv-only fans that don’t bother getting on the internet to troll the message boards or create a bunch of accounts to vote with. It’s how they’re voting that ultimately determines the outcome of the show.
Maybe you are write about the blogs maybe they are just Gilles fans. It’s just me getting a little nervous. Every time I heard those interviews from some yt from DWTS Gossips, made me feel nervous. I hope u are right because I would love to see Shawn, Apollo and Melissa in the final.
Tina, I’ve been over to that “other board” the past 2 days to make more accounts. I see what your saying. Realize that the same 20 or so fans for each contestant constantly post or add to posts to see the “buss percentage” go up on the right side of the screen. I how no idea why they think that matters or how it helps their favorite…it doesn’t. Especially since Sabrina was on the top a few times.
What bothers me is the comments I’m reading in several places that most fans don’t want a former champ to “re-win” the mirror ball. I think that’s why your seeing a lot of Gilles love. I’m embarrassed for my gender if they are just voting for him because he’s handsome. Also, remember how the “family’s fans” vote!! If Maks goes, they go to Val and vice-versa. If both Maks & Val go those fans will “help Maks’ girlfriend, PePe,” by voting for her (they did that last season). Now what is sad, is that many of Mark’s fans won’t vote for Shawn because she’s with Derek, even though she danced with Mark last week and he’s part of the trio. They dislike Derek that much, and Shawn winning to them is not as important as keeping another MBT out of Derek’s hands, so Mark can catch him.
Call me crazy…maybe lol, but I can understand Karina not picking Mark (not just knowing he wanted to be with Derek/Shawn). Mark can go into overdrive and over dance Apolo. Plus, I’ve seen Apolo has taken a liking to Emma & Sasha. Some fans thought his “chemistry with Karina was off cause he likes the tall blonde who played the statue for his foxtrot.” ROTFLMAO. They didn’t know about Emma & Sasha.
@sheery, I don’t think the whole “family” voting theory is that straightforward – we’ve had several readers here confirm that they are “strictly Maks” voters and “strictly Val” voters, and don’t necessarily toss their votes to the other brother if one gets voted off…some of them just stop voting. Likewise, I’ve seen a significant number of Maks fans say they won’t vote for Peta, either, because they question her motives…also saw a few Chmerkovskiy fans calling Tony a “sellout” because he seems to get along well with Derek this season. *shrug* The politics are dizzying. That said, if I had concrete proof that voting for Kirstie would ensure that either Kelly & Val or Gilles & Peta would go home, I’d absolutely toss some votes her way – I think she & Maks are far more pleasant to watch at this point than the other two. I also think the Mark fans that hate Derek are one of the fringe minorities…not really the mainstream or the majority.
Remember, kids: loud screaming doesn’t always indicate greater numbers…
Y’know, joey, you’re not the first person I’ve heard say that about NLG – I actually followed her a few years ago when I was really into GH, but she just seemed so angry…about everything. Politics, the storylines her character was (or wasn’t) getting, food, the weather, everything – basically the polar opposite of Alexis, the usually level-headed character she plays. I ended up unfollowing, just because I found her tweets to be kind of a downer…apparently not much has changed.
I don’t think Shawn needs Mask or ovals fans to win, she is the one to beat, if Apollo goes all the Olympians fans will vote for her. And Derek has a huge fan base.
I was happy when I saw Shawn paired with Derek. I love Shawn but I’m not very keen in Mark, he has the tendency to over dance his partners and draw the attention to himself. He sometimes come with very good choreographies but some of them are bonkers.
People complain about Dereck and they don’t see that Dereck works for his partners, no to drawn attention to himself and he always innovative with choreography.
Changing the subject, I recalled in Apollo series, someone mentioned in an interview that he has OCD traits. He has some rituals he has to do before the competition. I don’t know if someone here remember that interview, wasn’t with Apollo, was some Olympics friends, don’t remember well, cause at that time I wasn’t into DWTS.
I know most of top sport men has weird habits, made them concentrated.
@katarina: I actually saw quite a few different people praising Gilles and saying things like “you’re the best”, “you’re so good looking”, “you deserved 10s for your dance and to win the marathon”, and my personal favorite “I’m tired of Carrie Ann making fun of Gilles”! I understand that the buzz meter is meaningless, but to see different people actually have such a distorted reality as “underscoring Gilles” was frightening. I hope, like you say, these are just some crazy internet fans that don’t represent the majority.
Well the other thing you have to take into account, Tina, is that people at the ABC boards can (and do) create as many accounts as they can in order to vote – and they can use those same accounts to comment in the forums, and give the impression of being multiple people…when in reality, 6 different screen names could all be the same person. It’s called “sock puppeting”, and we call people out for it here all the time…because unlike the ABC boards, we actually pay attention to IP addresses. Even without an IP address, you can often tell someone is sock puppeting just by the tone of their comments – if 3 or 4 people are all posting the same general thing or are saying “I agree with the poster above” in rapid succession, odds are they are sock puppeting. If they all have the same spelling, grammar, punctuation, & use of emoticons (for better or worse), they’re probably sock puppeting. Not saying that’s definitely going on at the ABC boards, but it’s a possibility – especially if so many of the comments are as similar as you say. Just food for thought.
Also Tina, last season after William fans were not happy here with comments about he & Cheryl, people went on ABC and told other fans to protest this site. Some claim they don’t like to come here (Cheryl fans, Gilles fans, Bristol fans) because its bias in their opinion…..blah blah yada yada. Will those fans PLEASE tell Kelly fans….hehehehe
@Courtney: Thanks, you made me feel better! I can’t believe people post as different personas – get a life!
@Sherry Hey! I’m a Kelly fan! Well, a Val fan. Not all of us are a fan of the wannabe fake romance/showmance thing. (Still think it was a producer thing for ratings but only my opinion because there was a rumor circulating that she was orginally paired up with Tristan but he wouldn’t get on board with the idea so they switched her to Val but I have no source on that so don’t spank me Princess Heidi
) I just like it better here because well, ya’ll are a bit saner and I don’t see any bias here. I mean anywhere else and you mention Kelly has a boyfriend and her and Val are just friends and dang, people act like you shot their puppy, took the last cookie and are not a “true” fan.
I like it here because I can get my info, some good gossip and get entertained at the same time.
Re #29 if Apolo goes all my votes are gone & I stop watching. I don’t think it’s as simple as wanting any olympian to win. I admire Apolo as an individual.
@Tina: Thanks, I totally agree with this poster!
(lol)
The same people who believe in a romance between Val and Kelly are the same ones who harass soap stars on twitter for things there character did on TV. Ridiculous. Sure hope that don’t see that pap video from around the time the “romance” was hitting full stride cuz it wasn’t Kelly that Val was hanging with.
Eh, if the Maks/Val fan contingent was all that they would have won by now. I also don’t think the Mark fans are that powerful. They like to think they are, but I think they’re loud noises and nothing more.
Online fans are not going to prevent someone from winning. You win with the average viewer. If it’s close, the online fans may help. But I think most or all fan groups think they are way more important than they really are.
Yeah, if we get sockpuppets, you know the ABC boards have them in DROVES. It’s probably beyond ridiculous.
You mean (insert any name here other than Tom because we all know its his show) is not the center of the DWTS universe?!?!?
I am a Kelly and Val fan and I am not a crazy shipper who thinks that they will sail into the sunset together. I don’t know or care what is “really” going on with them, I just like watching their packages and dances. They seem very sweet to each other and I think it is adorable when he carries her up the stairs,etc. It’s like a rom-com, for me. Just play acting. This is Hollywood and so I pretty much figure it is for show. We all watch these shows for different reasons..escape,etc. The whole show is make-believe..except for the dancing, of course. No disrespect to non Kelly fans and I appreciate no one disrespecting me.
I also agree that Gilles is not getting the votes, the thing is, don’t know why but I go check the boards (TWAP,official, t ), this places are horrible and crazy, and in he beginning of the season they were all about Gilles, and is clear that right now they could care less about him , the dance is not great and the attitude is even worst, and people are not that stupid to ignore that (some are). At this point I truly believe that there is no chance of him winning anymore, and if he don;t get eliminated this week, he will be gone by next week.
And I don’t believe that most of Mark’s fans hate Derek, and they won’t vote for him and Shawn. I’m a Mark fan as weel, and I’m some of his fans that are voting every week for Shawn. Mark is clearly having a great time with the two of them, and ever since he and Bristol got eliminated he made clear that he was supporting Shawn and Derek.
PH and Court, I’ve wondered about the “we don’t want a repeat champ” vote that was mentioned above. Do you think there’s enough of that sentiment out there among the casual voter to give the non-champs a boost into the finals?
Seems to me the “just say no to repeats” crowd would have to pool their votes around one non-champ to make a difference.
Beats me, Cidra. I figure it depends on who actually makes it to the final. Between the scores and the voting, it might be only previous winners that make it to the end. We still have Shawn, Apolo and Emmitt.
People are calling Tony a sellout because he’s getting along with Derek?
WTF? Were they also crying foul when he was dancing with Karina on results shows?
People are serious crazy. Regardless of what’s going on between who, I think Tony is just too old to give a rat’s f**k about any of that stuff. (I don’t mean OLD in age, but maybe he has vastly different priorities in life since he is a dedicated husband and father.)
I wonder how many of the Bros C crazies know that when Mark came to NYC to play Webster Hall last year, he taught a class at one of Maks’ studios. But I’m just saying.
I remember last season, when there was a video of Derek, Karina, and Gavin DeGraw leaving a club/party and getting into a car together. Oh my, a few comments had to be flagged on that!! It was funny to see people try to figure out if Karina was possibly involved with Gavin or Derek based on that snipped of video.
Some fans tweet how they admire Kym and Tristan being able to dance pro dances together and work together after they split. When were they even together??? ROTFLMAO!!
See it just takes one out of the world fan and all the ValGirls are crazy?
Just so you know we all don’t want to go around cutting people. Some of us are actually functioning members of society but I get and respect the point you are making Anna R.
Only a few days until the next double elimination. Last time, the bottom three was shocking. I don’t think it’ll be shocking this time. Just waiting for Tom to announce Melissa is safe, then it’s all right.
Thanks, PH. Guess I’ll have to wait until the season’s over and then do a post-mortem if a non-champ gets to the finals and wins.