DWTS Season 15, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers

As everyone knows by now, no one went home this week. But in case you want to know how the judges scores are going to affect who ultimately goes home, I thought I would run the numbers for the week. After the Week 8 dances, I’ll run the numbers again and you can compare.

Here are the Week 7 scores and percentages:

As you can see, Melissa appears to be safely at the top of the leader board. So was Sabrina. The difference this week is that there is a MUCH larger spread between the top and the bottom. Unfortunately for Melissa (and others) there are two more dance scores to be added to each celeb before anyone is eliminated, which will tighten the margins and make it easier for someone to go home.  When Sabrina went home, there was only 6.5 points between the top and the bottom. Right now there are 10 points between Kirstie and Melissa – but that is likely to change.

I think it likely that Shawn and Apolo are safe – of course we can’t be sure, but that’s what my instincts are saying. I’m also inclined to believe that Emmitt is safe. But, this is where predicting who goes home gets extremely difficult…almost impossible…to call.

Looking at the list of the celebrities that are left, I’m inclined to think that Melissa is the one in most danger when you aren’t looking at the scores and the margins. Just looking at the list, she seems (all other things being equal) like the one most likely to get the boot. But she’s at the top of the leader board. So, what would it take for her to actually leave??  ALL of the following would have to happen for Melissa to be eliminated:

-          Kirstie would have to get 45,500 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

-          Apolo would have to get 24,800 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

-          Gilles would have to get 22,800 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

-          Emmitt would have to get 18,600 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

-          Kelly would have to get 12,400 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

-          Shawn would have to get 4,200 more votes per million votes cast.

It seems to me that it would be very unlikely for Melissa to go home in this scenario because that’s a lot of votes. With the exception of Shawn, the supposed big vote getters are stuck down at the bottom of the leader board with margins that they may or may not be able to overcome. Gilles, Emmitt and Kelly are somewhat questionable. I don’t think Gilles is doing it but Emmitt and Kelly might be.  But that doesn’t matter, as long as there are at least two people who can’t cover the spread Melissa is safe.

So, what about Kirstie, way down there at the bottom of the leader board??  Because it’s a double elimination next, in order for Kirstie to not be eliminated she would have to get TWO of the following:

-          Kirstie would have to get 20,700 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

-          Kirstie would have to get 22,800 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;

-          Kirstie would have to get 27,000 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

-          Kirstie would have to get 33,100 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, OR;

-          Kirstie would have to get 41,400 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

-          Kirstie would have to get 45,500 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa.

Kirstie was in the bottom two in Week 4 and is still here, which makes me think that she had the juice to beat the lesser known people (like Melissa, Sabrina) when the margin was small enough, but maybe not when the margins get wider. She beat Sabrina when there was a less than 10k spread between them, but she was in the bottom two with Bristol when Apolo was about 13k votes separated from her and Sabrina was about 17k votes separated from her.  This week, there is more than 20k between her and Apolo and nearly 23k between her and Gilles. Neither have truly been tested in terms of fanbase against Kirstie, but I do think she would go home this week if there were an elimination. She would almost definitely go home if there was a *double*  elimination.

Who else is in jeopardy of leaving??  Just looking at relative popularity?? I’d say it’s really going to be a surprise who the next person is. I’m thinking Kelly or (possible wishful thinking alert) maybe Gilles.  Since Gilles is lower on the leader board, we’ll look at him. What would have to happen for him to be eliminated?? Any TWO of the following:

-          Gilles would need for Kirstie to NOT get 22,800 more votes per million votes cast than him, AND;

-          Gilles would need for Apolo to NOT get 2,100 more votes per million votes cast than him, AND;

-          Gilles would need to get 4,200 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, AND;

-          Gilles would need to get 10,350 more votes per million votes cast than Kelly, AND;

-          Gilles would need to get 18,600 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, AND;

-          Gilles would need to get 22,800 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa.

Maybe I’m crazy, but I think Apolo gets the 2k easily and that Gilles might not be beating the spread between him and Emmitt or him and Kelly– which means Gilles would likely go home. I could really be hoping for this, but it seems plausible to me. Odds are we’ll never find out because when they add two more scores it will probably level the leader board and it will be strictly popularity…at which point we could be back to Melissa and Kelly.

And, since this is just an exercise to show what the margins were and set us up for next week, I’ll just leave it there. For now.  :-)