DWTS Season 15 Las Vegas Odds Going Into Week 8: Are they wrong or right?

The odds makers at Sports Bovada are convinced Kristie Alley is going home from Dancing With The Stars …and more than ever this upcoming week. Don’t worry though! They’ve been wrong in the past with 100/1 odds, but, unfortunately, they’ve also been right. They also have more faith in Gilles Marini and Emmitt Smith than many fans do.

Shawn Johnson 5/7
Emmitt Smith 7/2
Gilles Marini 11/2
Apolo Anton Ohno 9/1
Kelly Monaco 9/1
Melissa Rycroft 40/1
Kirstie Alley 100/1

Last week’s Las Vegas Odds going into Week 7 to compare:

Shawn Johnson 10/11
Emmitt Smith 13/4
Gilles Marini 7/2
Apolo Anton Ohno 9/1
Kelly Monaco 10/1
Melissa Rycroft 40/1
Kirstie Alley 66/1

I don’t know what to think, but, I’m pretty sold on the idea that “fan base” is going to determine who wins this competition this time especially after Sabrina was eliminated. If that’s the case, I think Kelly and Melissa (even though I like them) are history this upcoming week….or possibly, and hopefully, my dream elimination GILLES!!! I think Shawn should be first, Apolo should be second, Emmitt should be third, and Kirstie should be fourth.

Let’s see what my collaborators think and be sure you let us know in comments too….

Courtney: At this point, I’m just shrugging & shaking my head when it comes to these odds, because it just seems to me like these oddsmakers are chucking darts at a dartboard to determine their odds.  :-P It still baffles me that they’re so convinced that Emmitt & Gilles have chances that good – Emmitt may have the fanbase, but the judges have shown that they’re not afraid to drop the hammer if his dancing’s not up to snuff; and Gilles may be getting the scores, but now I’m not convinced that he’s getting the votes…we’ve seen very few Gilles trolls leaping to his defense here this season, and I’ve had several fans (some from Gilles’ native France, even) reach out to me on Twitter to tell me just how much they can’t stand his behavior this season.  Literally, I’m baffled as to who is actually voting for Gilles…and who knows, maybe he was the other half of the bottom 2 with Sabrina a few weeks back.  I’m just getting the gut feeling that his number could be up this week, from what I’ve been hearing from fans and from behind the scenes. Or it could be wishful thinking :-P Unfortunately for Kirstie, I’m also getting the feeling she could be leaving us this week – she’s got some tough dances and some not-so-stellar scores from last week to contend with, and she’s still the only one left that we know for sure has been in the bottom 2 before.  As for Apolo – I’m just not sure what to think.  I go back and forth between thinking he’s barely hanging on by a thread, to thinking he’s so safe that the judges feel the need to handicap him a bit.  Kelly & Melissa? Huge question marks for me.  I’m inclined to think that Kelly is getting more votes than Melissa, but I’m also hearing that the fauxmance is wearing thin on some fans and that Melissa may have a bigger fanbase than we think, due to her show on CMT.  Guess we’ll have a better picture after the axe drops twice on Tuesday…

Heidi: I think if they switch Gilles and Apolo they might have it about right – in terms of “top 3″, not necessarily the actual order.  I think Emmitt is going to blow people’s minds this week and get back in the game. At least for his Trio – he has Kym Johnson working with him who I’m giving a lot of credit to – she can choreograph some great stuff for the big guys. Will it be enough to get him to the final three? Well, we are awfully close.  Once you switch Gilles and Apolo – well, I think that’s a rough approximation of who’s ranked where. If they continue to treat Apolo like a second class citizen, he could be in trouble. I’m like Courtney on Apolo at this point – one minute I think he’s going to win it all and the next I think the judges are going to nitpick him right out of the game.  I WISH we could see the backside of Gilles this week, but I kinda doubt it. I do wish Kirstie could stay over him, but I fear her time is running out. But Kirstie and Melissa? I think the odds dudes might have that one wrong. I LOVE Melissa and would love to see her in the final three – but it seems a bit clear that she’s getting some pimpage from the judges, and she’s apparently last in the running order this week which, while not a huge deal any more, is a sign of them giving her some love. I think she’ll survive this week, thanks to the scores, but I’m afraid she won’t make it to the end. Unless the judges get REALLY serious.  Of course, the odds makers aren’t really saying who is going to leave next, they are giving odds to win it all – so I guess in that respect they’re more right than wrong. Although I don’t really know which of the people who I think are going to be top three is actually going to win. Which is kind of a nice change of pace. :-)