DWTS Season 15 Las Vegas Odds Going Into Week 8: Are they wrong or right?
The odds makers at Sports Bovada are convinced Kristie Alley is going home from Dancing With The Stars …and more than ever this upcoming week. Don’t worry though! They’ve been wrong in the past with 100/1 odds, but, unfortunately, they’ve also been right. They also have more faith in Gilles Marini and Emmitt Smith than many fans do.
Shawn Johnson 5/7
Emmitt Smith 7/2
Gilles Marini 11/2
Apolo Anton Ohno 9/1
Kelly Monaco 9/1
Melissa Rycroft 40/1
Kirstie Alley 100/1
Last week’s Las Vegas Odds going into Week 7 to compare:
Shawn Johnson 10/11
Emmitt Smith 13/4
Gilles Marini 7/2
Apolo Anton Ohno 9/1
Kelly Monaco 10/1
Melissa Rycroft 40/1
Kirstie Alley 66/1
I don’t know what to think, but, I’m pretty sold on the idea that “fan base” is going to determine who wins this competition this time especially after Sabrina was eliminated. If that’s the case, I think Kelly and Melissa (even though I like them) are history this upcoming week….or possibly, and hopefully, my dream elimination GILLES!!! I think Shawn should be first, Apolo should be second, Emmitt should be third, and Kirstie should be fourth.
Let’s see what my collaborators think and be sure you let us know in comments too….
Courtney: At this point, I’m just shrugging & shaking my head when it comes to these odds, because it just seems to me like these oddsmakers are chucking darts at a dartboard to determine their odds. 😛 It still baffles me that they’re so convinced that Emmitt & Gilles have chances that good – Emmitt may have the fanbase, but the judges have shown that they’re not afraid to drop the hammer if his dancing’s not up to snuff; and Gilles may be getting the scores, but now I’m not convinced that he’s getting the votes…we’ve seen very few Gilles trolls leaping to his defense here this season, and I’ve had several fans (some from Gilles’ native France, even) reach out to me on Twitter to tell me just how much they can’t stand his behavior this season. Literally, I’m baffled as to who is actually voting for Gilles…and who knows, maybe he was the other half of the bottom 2 with Sabrina a few weeks back. I’m just getting the gut feeling that his number could be up this week, from what I’ve been hearing from fans and from behind the scenes. Or it could be wishful thinking 😛 Unfortunately for Kirstie, I’m also getting the feeling she could be leaving us this week – she’s got some tough dances and some not-so-stellar scores from last week to contend with, and she’s still the only one left that we know for sure has been in the bottom 2 before. As for Apolo – I’m just not sure what to think. I go back and forth between thinking he’s barely hanging on by a thread, to thinking he’s so safe that the judges feel the need to handicap him a bit. Kelly & Melissa? Huge question marks for me. I’m inclined to think that Kelly is getting more votes than Melissa, but I’m also hearing that the fauxmance is wearing thin on some fans and that Melissa may have a bigger fanbase than we think, due to her show on CMT. Guess we’ll have a better picture after the axe drops twice on Tuesday…
Heidi: I think if they switch Gilles and Apolo they might have it about right – in terms of “top 3”, not necessarily the actual order. I think Emmitt is going to blow people’s minds this week and get back in the game. At least for his Trio – he has Kym Johnson working with him who I’m giving a lot of credit to – she can choreograph some great stuff for the big guys. Will it be enough to get him to the final three? Well, we are awfully close. Once you switch Gilles and Apolo – well, I think that’s a rough approximation of who’s ranked where. If they continue to treat Apolo like a second class citizen, he could be in trouble. I’m like Courtney on Apolo at this point – one minute I think he’s going to win it all and the next I think the judges are going to nitpick him right out of the game. I WISH we could see the backside of Gilles this week, but I kinda doubt it. I do wish Kirstie could stay over him, but I fear her time is running out. But Kirstie and Melissa? I think the odds dudes might have that one wrong. I LOVE Melissa and would love to see her in the final three – but it seems a bit clear that she’s getting some pimpage from the judges, and she’s apparently last in the running order this week which, while not a huge deal any more, is a sign of them giving her some love. I think she’ll survive this week, thanks to the scores, but I’m afraid she won’t make it to the end. Unless the judges get REALLY serious. Of course, the odds makers aren’t really saying who is going to leave next, they are giving odds to win it all – so I guess in that respect they’re more right than wrong. Although I don’t really know which of the people who I think are going to be top three is actually going to win. Which is kind of a nice change of pace. 🙂
I love Melissa i will love to she her in the finals she is one of the best dancers this season.
I really dont want to see melissa eliminated yet either! Love her partnership with tony so much and it would be great to see them make it to the finals!
We share the same dream, Vogue!
LOL! 😉
This odds are weird, apart from Shawn being and Kirstie being last, I don;t agree with anything else.
My top 3 in no particular order would be: Apolo, Shawn, and probably Emmitt.
I agree with the ladies… Apolo is either almost toast OR He is literally walking away with the trophy.
Gilles is way too high….for my liking at least. Maybe he will turn off a whole bunch of viewers tomorrow.
For the finals I would love to see Shawn, Melissa and Apolo.
I actually wouldnt mind seeing Melissa win at all. I dont see it happening at all, but Id like it. And imagine the look on Gilles face if she did!
I say Shawn will win, Apollo second and Melissa Third. Agree that Gilles should go home at some point. Sorry to say Kirstie could also be toast, agree!
What a boring show to have double triple quadruple winners. While good dancers and showmanship get zero.Shows me they have a couch.
Annette….I kind of pity you. Good Luck!!
I´m also nervous for Apolo, hoping that Shawn, Apolo and Emmit dance in the final, same feeling and same pros that were in final a year ago (good aura and good friends I believe).
Really hope that the judges stop underscore Apolo, can´t understand why because they say nice and great things to him and then score him low!
Ph: I went to wikipedia for some statistic and BAM: I`m happy again!
Donald Driver was just once at the top of the leaderboard and that was in week 4, so maybe, maybe it´s the same scenario for Apolo.
@annettelovejoy In my opinion celebrities that are working their butts off and are showing improvement deserve recognition whether or not they won before. Shawn, Apolo, Melissa have improved. Gilles and Kirstie, frankly, have shown no improvement. By your standards, why don’t we just give Gilles and Kirstie each a token trophy and send the rest home now?
I would love for Apolo to win & think he more than deserves to but I don’t think he has any chance. Well, other than Shawn, no one really does. 🙂 I’ve said from the beginning that the Mirrorball is Shawn (and Derek’s) to lose, barring a disastrous freestyle (unlikely) or a major injury (hope not).
Which is why I’ll be happy if Apolo can just make it to the finals but I’m not sure if he’ll even do that – and that’s what really p***** me off. I just can’t wrap my mind around the screwy mind games the show has played on him and his fans all season. Other than Kirstie who was in the bottom 2 at least once, he’s the only other one the show’s been “teasing” with the fake bottom 2/jeopardy business. That combined with his low balled scores makes me wonder if they’re trying to foreshadow an early elimination for him and Karina…
I still don’t get the odds for Emmitt. Though if it’s true about his trio dance looking awesome this week, then I say it’s about dang time!! Maybe he’ll finally earn the high scores he’s been getting all season…
Apolo, Shawn, and Melissa for the final 3- in that order please!! 😀
Oh, I see, so Shawn, Apolo and Emmitt aren’t good showmen or good dancers?? Uh huh. Right. 😀 Oh, and guess what?? KELLY won before too!! So I guess that means you want Kirstie, Gilles the douche, or Melissa to win. Melissa is the ONLY one of those three that would be acceptable, in my book. And in yours, actually, going by your own words. Sadly, that’s not going to happen.
Donald Driver really only had to worry about Katherine. You had fans you were turned off by Mark, Maks’ fans saying to vote for Peta and people who actually thought we shouldn’t be voting for a Brit in the American version. Apolo has Shawn, horny woman voting for Gilles and Maks, and GH fans AND the NFL fans. Uphill battle 🙁
I would in no way preach to anyone to vote for Apolo. But we really don’t know how well he is doing, so if we want him to stay in the competition and make it to the finals, then he still needs us to make that happen.
Annette, why is it so bad for a winner to win again? If they deserve it by working hard and having that much talent, etc, I don’t see anything wrong with it?!!
Um, seriously??? I would lay money that just as many “horny women” are voting for Apolo as they are Gilles and Maks.
Not all horny women vote for Gilles.
Some of us vote for Val. 🙂
But you did say woman so that must be one horny woman.
AT the moment until we get to the final three, I’m for anyone BUT DL Gilles winning. Even though I’m a Vally fan …I’ve jumped that ship because I’m starting to think they think their fans are just effin idiots. I do not say that because I am “jealous” or “bitter” or a non romantic I say it because I do not like being treated like an idiot. And the remark about Val sleeping his way to the top…..I knew that was going to come eventually. Which is sad that people see it that way because while not everyone likes him because he’s part of the “fam” that must be related to Damien, he’s still talented in his own right. The showmance backlash is starting sooner than I thought.
LOL – someone said Val is sleeping his way to the top?? Uh, if he is, he’s doing it WRONG. LOL – more like “to the middle.” 🙂
IF that’s what he were doing – which he isn’t because that’s the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard.
I don’t see Val doing anything wrong. His choreo is good and geared towards his partner’s strengths and weaknesses. He’s not an anger-boy. He has great chemistry with his partner. So they play up the romance part.. not to the detriment of their dancing, they are quite good,IMO. They have already stated that they are not sleeping together. Do people really think that Kelly and Val somehow think that they are fooling us with their supposed romance and that’s where the backlash against them comes in? I think they know that we know it’s for show. This is showbiz and Hollywood. None of it is meant to be taken seriously. For me there is absolutely nothing distasteful about Val this season. He’s still learning the ropes of this show and I hope he goes far. I am not willing to condemn him just
because he has a certain brother or because he acts very sweet and flirty with his partner.
Just found out about this website a few weeks ago and can’t believe didn’t know it existed. Just want to say the mods who run this site do a fantastic job and I appreciate all the hard work you do. If it has been mentioned before I apologize for bringing it here up but could someone confirm that Brooke leaked last week that the bottom two from week 6 were actually Sabrina and Melissa. I really want her in the finals with Shawn and Apolo. Go Team CMM…what’s left of it.
I think you can blame Carrie Ann for the over the top “affection” between Val and Kelly. She told them they had chemistry and they decided to run with it but both are bad actors at it. LOL I know there isn’t a “romance” between them anymore than there was one between Derek and Maria last season. Though there are still pockets of fans out there who are convinced Maria is going to leave her boyfriend and run off with Derek. 😀
This show is still a popularity contest, as Emmitt winning his season over the more danceable Mario. Or when Helio won.
No, I don’t blame other people for my actions, so why should I blame CAI for Val and Kelly’s?
I’m with Vogue. My hope is that Gilles gets the boot this week. I just can’t tolerate his ego anymore and his dancing isn’t all that great. Other than Shawn, Apolo and Melissa, I really don’t care who else goes home this week as long as he’s one of them.
I don’t think Kirstie and Emmitt’s gonna win this season. Because Kirstie was in bottom two once and I think that the judges will be giving low scores to Emmitt next week, if not this week. Most people think Melissa doesn’t have the fanbase. Actually that was also what I thought before the show started. But she lasted more than a lot of people think. So, who knows, perhaps she can make it to finale. I think she’ll be safe this week-if judges score her properly. Not sure about the next week.
I think Shawn will be in the finale but I still don’t see her winning the MBT unless there is a distinct score difference between her and two other finalists. But I also don’t think that the judges(or the producers) would want Melissa or Kelly to win All Star season so, I think Apolo, Gilles or Shawn(outside chance) will be the winner.
I’ve been hearing some cray cray. Grr. Now you got me doing it. 🙂
Natalie, I wasn’t saying Val has been doing anything wrong. As a fan I’m just to the point where its enough already. Sometimes a tease is sexier than full on. Know what I mean?
and they gotta stop hitting the bottle when the odd makers are doing these numbers cause seriously I want to know if Gilles is doing that great what color the sky is in their universe because we apparently aren’t in the same one as they are where the sky is blue.
If I understand correctly, odds are set based on how much money is being bet on each person, so these odds aren’t being created by the odds makers. They just set the odds so that the house should be guaranteed to win.
I’m just not sure who in Las Vegas would actually be betting on DWTS, instead of football or boxing. We might be looking at a very small number of people and/or people who don’t understand very well how the show works. I could see the football betters betting on Emmitt. I think most betting on the show are somewhat familiar with it but might just be parroting the judges’ scores and comments in deciding who has the best chance of winning, without really taking fan base voting into consideration as much as they should be.
I wish, but I don’t think Gilles will get the boot this week. And I HOPE we’ll see Shawn, Apolo and Melissa in the finals. That is my dream team. …But somehow i think Emmitt and/or Gilles will be in the finals.
Still would like to see Apollo, Shawn and Melissa in the finals. Not sure of the order and I don’t care if some have won before. JMO, but dance is the most important part to me and they have proved they have put the hard work in and have shown the results each week. My hope is that Gilles and Kirstie are the ones eliminated this week. Even if Emmitt is wonderful this week I still don’t think he showed his best during this season. Kelly and Val’s whatever it is has gotten to be too much.