DWTS All Stars, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers

If you want to look at the numbers from last week before they added in two more dances, take a look at DBTN Week 7.

I’m not even going to discuss the judging tonight – it was awful from the opening dance all the way to the end. Len and his horrible comment to Shawn – I think maybe he heard Derek say “f#$k you” with his choreo or something.  People who got perfect scores shouldn’t have while others were excessively punished.  I feel bad for Apolo’s trio going after Shawn cuz he seemed pretty tame after.  I love Emmitt, but a 30 on his trio?? No way. Len’s treatment of Gilles (aka Good) is inexplicable.  And that V. Waltz from Kelly?? WHAT?? Crack is wack, ya’ll. Ridiculous. Oh, look, I talked all about the judging after I said I wouldn’t. :-)   That’s cuz it’s taking the enjoyment out of the show for me.  Anyway, on with the show:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Bye Bye Kirstie. I don’t think there’s any way she beats that spread. She was in the bottom two previously, when the spread was much smaller.  Since it’s a double elimination, she needs TWO of the following to happen, to avoid going home:

–          Kirstie needs 19,550 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 20,320 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 21,100 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt or Kelly, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 22,670 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 31,250 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa.

I’m sorry, Kirstie fans. I do wish I could say I thought she was staying. Unfortunately, I think she’s the only sure thing of the night. I would much rather Gilles and Kelly leave before her, but I don’t see that happening.

Now it gets interesting. There is virtually no difference between everyone left, with the exception of Melissa. But don’t get the impression that she’s safe. I don’t think she is. I will say right now that I can’t say with a high degree of confidence who the second eliminee is going to be. I can’t honestly pick one or two as being safe with any degree of confidence. My GUT tells me that Apolo and Shawn are safe. I pray that my gut is right. I pray that Melissa is safe too. But when you look at these numbers, you tell me if you can call it. I can’t. I will GUESS, but not with my usual degree of certainty.

Next up is Apolo – hunky, hunky Apolo. :-) What does he need in order to be safe. He needs any TWO of the following:

–          Apolo needs for Kirstie to not cover the spread, AND;

–          Apolo needs 782 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;

–          Apolo needs 1,565 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt or Kelly, OR;

–          Apolo needs 3,125 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

–          Apolo needs 11,750 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa.

Okay, I could be way off, but I don’t think Kirstie covers the spread and I think that Apolo beats Gilles AND Kelly, at the very least. I think.  :::sigh:::

Next on the list is Gilles. Gilles could actually be in trouble this week. Go back and look at the difference in votes between him and Apolo. They may as well have been tied.  For Gilles to be safe, he needs TWO of the following to happen:

–          Gilles needs Kirstie to not cover the spread, OR;

–          Gilles needs Apolo to not cover the spread, OR;

–          Gilles needs 782 more votes per million votes cast than either Emmitt or Kelly, OR;

–          Gilles needs 2,350 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

–          Gilles needs 10,950 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa.

I think that Apolo covers the spread and Kirstie doesn’t. After that, I think that Gilles MIGHT be getting the 782 to pass Kelly, but I just don’t know.  I doubt he’s passing Emmitt which makes Emmitt somewhat safe.  But even as I type the words I’m second guessing myself. :::sigh:::

We’ll just move on. Next is Kelly and Emmitt. No, they’re not really safe either. But what does Emmitt need in order to stick around (same for Kelly – just substitute her name)?? He needs TWO of the following:

–          Emmitt/Kelly need Kirstie to not cover the spread, OR;

–          Emmitt/Kelly need Apolo to not cover the spread, OR;

–          Emmitt/Kelly need Gilles to not cover the spread, OR;

–          Emmitt or Kelly need ONE vote more than the other, OR;

–          Emmitt/Kelly need 1,565 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

–          Emmitt/Kelly need 10,160 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa.

I think Emmitt is safe mainly because Kirstie won’t cover the spread and Emmitt gets the one vote he needs to pass Kelly. That’s all he needs, and I think it will happen. I could be wrong. I also think that Apolo beats Kelly…the person I’m not sure about is Gilles. Really not sure.  I don’t think Kelly catches either Shawn or Melissa.  You may sense at this point that I’ve talked myself into thinking that the bottom three are Kirstie, Gilles and Kelly. Let’s see if I stick with that all the way to the end of the post. :-)

For a change of pace, let’s look at what would have to happen for Shawn to go home. She would need ALL of the following to happen in order to be eliminated:

–          Kirstie would have to get 22,670 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Apolo would have to get 3,125 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Gilles would have to get 2,350 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Kelly AND Emmitt would have to get 1,565 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Shawn DOESN’T get 8,600 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa.

I don’t think Kirstie is covering that spread and I think that Shawn IS covering the spread with Melissa. Beyond that?? I think Apolo might cover the spread but I don’t think Gilles, Kelly or Emmitt are – hope I’m right on that one.

That brings us to Melissa. For Melissa to go home, EVERY OTHER DANCER would have to cover a spread. What kind of spreads?? ALL of the following would have to happen for Melissa to go home:

–          Kirstie would have to get 31,250 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Apolo would have to get 11,750 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Gilles would have to get 10,950 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Kelly AND Emmitt would have to get 10,160 more votes per million votes cast, AND;

–          Shawn would have to get 8,600 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa.

Normally, we would look at Kirstie’s number and call Melissa safe. But it’s a double elimination and Melissa needs TWO people to fail to cover the spread.  Will all six of those people cover that spread?? I’m inclined to think that Kelly and Gilles won’t cover it, along with Kirstie, so I THINK Melissa is safe. I would not be at all surprised to be wrong on that one.

So, I think that Melissa and Shawn are safe. I think that Kirstie can’t beat Apolo and that Apolo beats at least Gilles, which makes him safe.

That leaves us with Gilles, Emmitt and Kelly, assuming that Kirstie is already out.  Again assuming that Kirstie can’t beat the spread on any of those three, can Gilles get 782 votes more than either Emmitt or Kelly??  I’m going to say no to Emmitt and maybe so to Kelly.

If you followed all that, it kinda means that my bottom three is comprised of Kirstie, Kelly and Gilles. I think Kirstie goes home. The second eliminee? It’s a toss up, but I’m leaning towards Kelly, simply because of the people who will vote for the hot guy no matter how good an impersonation of a Douche Lord he does. It’s entirely possible that my bias is coming into play here and Emmitt’s in the bottom three because of his fade into the wood work – but I dunno.

My guess is that Kirstie and Kelly will be eliminated with Gilles possibly taking Kelly’s spot, with Emmitt as an outside possibility.

But why is my gut still worried about Melissa???