DWTS All Stars, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers

Some of you may recall what I’ve said on more than one occasion in various blogs on this site. I’ve said…when the judges get REAL, someone who has been previously deluded gets mad. And that, my friends, is Val and his big bro, who really needs to stay off twitter during the show.  I think that’s all the attention that I will give these children – really what more can be said about them at this point?

Anyway, Shawn and Melissa did great, although I thought that Melissa’s AT was overscored by a point or two for being too soft (as per usual). She also made the mistake of her Lindy – too many lifts such that some of them were a bit messy. I also find it amusing that when given the opportunity Melissa and Tony LOAD UP on the lifts and tricks (Lindy and AT…and the caveman hustle, for that matter), but some fans whine about Shawn. Derek stripped their AT down to technical cool – it was also a tad soft, but it was a better dance than Melissa’s, despite what CAI thinks. Like I said in the comments – I want Melissa in the finale, so I’ll live with a tiny bit of overscoring. :-) But if Shawn didn’t deserve a 30, Melissa didn’t either.

Apolo?? AWESOME Rumba – far better than Kelly’s. I will confess that I don’t know enough about Jazz to know if that was good or not. I liked it, despite a couple minor difficulties. But hell, Emmitt slipped last week and got 10’s, why not Apolo?? Emmitt was overscored on his first dance and, as Courtney pointed out on Twitter, it’s this sort of scoring that sends better dancers home. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen.

Here is our scoreboard after two dances – and my top three coincide with the Judges Top 3. Awesome. Not that it means anything.

At the bottom, we have Emmitt and Kelly. I think that if Kelly or Emmitt manage to stick around it will be at Melissa’s expense and I hope like hell that doesn’t happen because Melissa is ten times the dancer that Kelly is. But, that’s the funny thing about an All Star season – you aren’t guaranteed a spot just because you’re a good dancer. That goes for Apolo and Shawn too – no guarantees.

Anyway, what do Emmitt and Kelly have to do to survive the double elimination?? We’ll write this from Kelly’s perspective, but just insert Emmitt’s name in her place to see what he needs – it’s the same.  She needs TWO of the following:

–          Kelly needs ONE more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, AND/OR;

–          Kelly needs 10,700 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, AND/OR;

–          Kelly needs 12,500 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, AND/OR;

–          Kelly needs 17,800 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn.

I honestly don’t really see Kelly beating any of those people, but I could be way wrong. It’s really hard to say.  Melissa is the big question mark here. If Kelly doesn’t beat her, Melissa still needs either Apolo or Emmitt to not beat her. That seems like a lot of votes for Emmitt to get also, but I just don’t know. Anyway…

As for Apolo, he needs two of the following things to happen in order to make it to the finale:

–          He needs for Kelly and Emmitt to not get the 10,700 more votes per million votes cast that they need, AND/OR;

–          Apolo needs to get 1,800 more votes per million votes than Melissa, AND/OR;

–          Apolo needs to get 7,110 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn.

I originally thought Apolo was going to win this thing and now I have some doubts about that. I honestly don’t have a good read on what’s going on here, other than thinking that Shawn is pretty safe.  I tend to think that Kelly doesn’t get the votes to get past him and if Emmitt DOES get the votes I’m afraid that Apolo easily gets the votes to get past Melissa. As you can see, everything kinda comes back to Melissa for me.

Speaking of Melissa, what has to happen for Melissa to be safe?? She needs TWO of the following things to happen:

–          She needs for Kelly AND Emmitt to NOT get the 12,500 more votes per million votes cast, AND/OR;

–          She needs for Apolo to NOT get the 1,800 more votes per million votes cast, AND/OR;

–          Melissa needs to get 5,330 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn.

No, I have no clue. I don’t think Kelly gets those votes, but after that? I’m inclined to think Emmitt ain’t clearing it, but I won’t be surprised if I’m wrong.

That leaves us with Shawn. As the high scorer, she needs at least two of the following  to NOT happen in order to advance to the next week:

–          Kelly and Emmitt don’t get the 17,800 more votes per million votes cast, and/or;

–          Apolo doesn’t get the 7,110 more votes per million votes cast, and/or;

–          Melissa doesn’t get the 5,330 more votes per million votes cast.

Shawn is the only person I feel relatively confident in saying she’s safe. But not 100% – just relatively confident.  I just don’t think that Kelly, Emmitt or Melissa are getting those votes over Shawn – not sure about Apolo.

So where does that leave us?? Well, keeping in mind that Shawn is the ONLY one I’m SORTA confident about, I’m going to guess that Kelly is a goner no matter what.  And then it gets hard.

I think that it could be either Melissa, Emmitt or Apolo. Based entirely on my gut feeling that Emmitt is fading into the woodwork, I’m going to guess that he doesn’t make the cut, leaving us with MY desirable final three of Shawn, Apolo and Melissa. :-) Cuz it’s all about ME. ;-)

So, Kelly out first and Emmitt out second with an outside chance of a tragedy of Melissa as a shocking elimination, taking Emmitt’s place. While I’m going to call Apolo and Shawn safe, I would NOT be surprised if Apolo gets hosed. I would be shocked if Shawn does.  But I think those two have the best chances of making it, sans any other reliable information.

I could be wrong. I’m just glad that I only have to do this one more time this season. :-)