Pure Dancing With The Stars First Las Vegas Odds For Season 16
It’s that time again!!!! Are you ready for the first Las Vegas Odds for Dancing With The Stars 16? Keep in mind before you take a look that the odds makers are almost always wrong in their beginning wagers. Also keep in mind that the odds could get shaken up real soon with a heavily rumored additional 12th couple added to the cast.
So, what have we got? So far, Sports Bovada is forecasting Aly Raisman to win. Maybe this could happen and maybe not, but, I don’t think I would want to be placed first if I was Aly. I also don’t think Andy Dick is going home first. I think he’s going to pull a Nancy Grace and be around for a while. He also reminds me a little of Jerry Springer. I think people might get addicted to he and Sharna’s fun humor and charm especially if, on top of everything, he can dance. I’m kind of worried that it might be Lisa to go home first instead, but, I hope not because I’m already love loving Gleb. 
So, what do you think and look for Miss Heidi and Courtney thoughts after you take a look at these….
Aly Raisman 7/2
Kellie Pickler 5/1
Zendaya Coleman 5/1
Jacoby Jones 13/2
Ingo Rademacher 7/1
Victor Ortiz 15/2
Dorothy Hamill 9/1
D.L. Hughley 10/1
Wynonna Judd 15/1
Lisa Vanderpump 20/1
Andy Dick 33/1
Girls?
Courtney: I agree with Aly for the win, although I think her biggest competition will be Jacoby & Dorothy – so I’m a big puzzled that they aren’t higher. I could also see Ingo going far and benefitting from the soap vote in much the same way Kelly did last season…especially if he & Kym have enough chemistry to incite some of the nuttier shippers 
I’m afraid that Lisa will be an early exit, but I’m actually worried that Victor might be the first to go – he & Lindsay just seem to be a little too wholesome & laid back, and I’m skeptical about his boxing fanbase being motivated to vote. Zendaya? Wayyyy too high, even if she’s really good – Disney kids have generally not been able t0 make viewers really give a damn, even if they’re good dancers. Just look at Roshon & Chelsea. And really, Kellie in 2nd??? Just because she’s with Derek? No offense to Kellie fans, but she doesn’t exactly strike me as the sharpest (or most coordinated) tool in the shed. I’m thinking she may follow more of the path of a Joanna or a Maria than a Shawn or a Ricki. Interested to see where Sean & Peta fit in once they’re announced…I’m beginning to wonder if they’re going to be an early exit, just due to being a late addition. That, and the fact that they seem to be a rather bland pairing.
Heidi: Considering that I don’t think the odds makers have EVER gotten it right in the first week, I’m going to say that once again they haven’t gotten it right. I like my odds. 
Especially since we haven’t seen them dance. As for Kelly being number 2? I think she will finish in the top 4 or 5 – mainly because she has Derek and he has a record. Again, I think my odds are good. But number 2?? I dunno. There is a lot at play here. Pissed off fans that think he should have, by all yardsticks, have won last season, and the fact that he’s talking about “natural talent” and “hyper-entended legs” like he did with Brooke. And Kellie herself tweeted that she doesn’t suck as much as she thought she would. All positive signs. But, as we all know, it’s not just about the individual dancers, but the people they are competing against. And I see some powerhouse talent in this cast and some potential fanbase ringers. I think Wynonna and Dorothy could be fanbase ringers, and I think Jacoby probably fits into that category as well. Ingo? Maybe – but soaps are a dying breed for a reason. Zendaya is a ringer ringer – but she may suffer from the young Disney problem – that being that that age group doesn’t seem to vote. We’ll have to wait and see if she gets the Chelsea Kane style propping up or not. As for Aly….I just don’t know. She may suffer terribly in comparison to Shawn without the benefit of a few seasons between them. Can lightning strike twice?? I kinda doubt it. Expectations are going to be extremely high in week 1 and if she doesn’t get on it right away, she could be in trouble. I doubt VERY much that she’ll get scored as hard as Shawn was, so there’s that. But she has a lot working against her, not the least of which is that this will be Mark’s third Olympian. Let that sink in people who complain about Derek – THIRD Olympian. And all three are in the right voting demo for DWTS. I think, all in all, they have the top four right – just maybe not in that order. Put Dorothy up in the top 5 and call it good.
Heidi, do you have a theory on why Len seemed to actively dislike Shawn so much? He’s had no problem giving high marks to some of Derek’s other partners but *really* seemed to have it out for Shawn, sometimes even to unreasonable/irrational extents.
Any theories? It always struck me as odd, given that her personality/behavior aren’t offensive…
Glad to see the first odds out!! I think out of the gate I see Zendaya, Jacoby, and Aly as the three standouts dancing wise but also i think Kellie, and D.L. are ones to watch, Ingo could either be awesome or could pull an Aiden Turner ( We all thought he’d be great and he didnt even outlast Kate. That rhymed.
). People better MAJORY watchout for Dorothy. I think she’ll be really good and she’s an Olympic legend in the perfect demographic, I see her in atleast the final 5. I think Wynnona could pull a Kirstie Alley potentially and even if she isn’t the dancer Kirstie was she’s still hilarious and should go atleast halfway regardless, Lisa I must say is one that you wanna watch, like a very notable reality star that you can’t really picture dancing but are nevertheless intrigued by, I hope she’s does well but fear she might be a Kate Gosselin, also jury is still out on Gleb, Andy will be a hot mess but a likable hot mess. 
If anyone is in danger, I agree it’s Victor. He’s definitely the one we’re hearing the least about and I haven’t even watched one interview with him just because I, at this point, don’t care enough. Maybe I’m wrong though and he’ll shock us all. 
I really want to see the first dance first. But I’m thinking that aly will be right up there along with Jacoby Dorothy Zendaya and Kellie. I’m thinking there will be alot of “Third Olympian” “Pissed off about Last Year” “Love Figure Skating” etc mentality that could be interesting to the votes and also Wynonna and Ingo could be dark horses – IMO could be interesting year. I’m looking forward to it.
interesting odds! i’d say if they switched dorothy and victor, they would prob have the top half and bottom half right, just out of order.
top 6
1) Jacoby -should be #1. Football fanbase + superbowl + personality+ rhythm+ good partner = 1. i think only a hidden temper or 2 left feet could stop him
2) Aly – she has the potential to win, just dont see it. my concerns are her personality (even when saying she wanted to be sassy, she sounded robotic to me) and dancing in shawns shadow
3/4) Kelly & Ingo – they both seem charming/funny, have amazing partners that know how to play this game, and should have solid fanbase
5) Dorothy – i think experience from ice skating is going to shine in her standard dances, and america loves her
6) Zendaya – Dance-wise she could be number one, but i question her fanbases’ willingness to vote. If they surprise me and vote, i would actually switch her with Aly
bottom 5/6
7) wynona
8) DL
9)Lisa
10)Andy
11) victor – i too see him going first. his fanbase doesnt match up demo wise, and i dont see lindsay & him making a large enough statement week one
i also wouldnt be surprised if andy & dl switched places
It may just be me but am i the only one who thinks Aly has like 0 personality? Idk i may be seeing things but she just seemed very robotic as “yo” mentioned. her interviews are all like “meh” and she kinda reminded me of Bristol Palin the way she talked and everything. i mean if she does manage to bring on the sassy she wants to bring then she will shut me right up.
Jacoby to me seems a bit too overconfident. Sure he has a little groove going on but i don’t see him following Donald or Hines’ route in terms of actually being able to dance. His fanbase however is gonna get him far.
The bottom ones for me are Andy, DL, Lisa, Wynonna, Ingo and Victor (in no particular order). I think they are the ones that may suffer. Maybe Ingo not so much cause he could turn out to be a William Levy this season.
Kellie i feel is gonna turn out to be a Shannon or Joanna as well. I just don’t see her and Derek making the finals for some reason..
Dorothy might surprise a lot of people. I think she’s gonna take Tristan far this season. Maybe at least a week further than Nancy Grace. I think she’ll be good with the elegant ballroom dances but idk about a cha-cha or a samba for her.. hmmm
Zendaya might suffer with her fanbase (even though she does have the most followers on Twitter than anyone this season.. but those followers are usually teens who probably won’t vote as much as other people). I think overall she’s gonna be good so i see her going a bit far.. maybe she could turn out to be like Chelsea or Kyle and reach the finals (hopefully not like Roshon who I never thought had any chance of reaching the finals)
All in all, im excited to see what everyone is gonna bring this season and perhaps everything i just said might change as soon as week 1 is over.
I think people are underestimating Ingo. He’s very athletic, is a sponsored rep for Yoloboard (stand up paddling) and has been competing for the last year. He’s got his competitive edge up, is in good physical shape (oh, boy, is he ever!), and has the charm, as well as a good partner. You won’t see the showmance that Kelly gave us last year, Ingo is very much a family man.
Country music fans are very loyal, so unless Wynnona is a complete wreck she should stick around awhile.
Kellie hasn’t been around that long but she has a Derek and a lot of personality. She should make it to finals if she can dance at all.
If Mark doesn’t stick to what the dance should be, I see Aly getting low scores, and don’t know if the fans will keep her there or not.
If DL and Cheryl don’t have fun rehearsal clips and she doesn’t teach him to really dance (William Levy) they might be one of the first to go. His show has been off awhile and comedians don’t seem to do well.
If Andy dances well, and they play up the recovery angle right, he could be there awhile. Everyone loves someone trying to rebuild their life.
I think Dorothy can make the finals if she can get the choreography down and Tristan can keep everything interesting. I just love Tristan and want him to go far this season!
Football players always do well and Karina is great. If Jacoby doesn’t play around too much he will make the finals.
Don’t know about the others. Victor has such a great smile I hope he sticks around. I hope they don’t have an elimination the first round. It will give us a chance to get to know everyone and really see who we like. Wishful thinking!
Steve, I think Len was playing a game that he plays with good dancers. He regularly gave Nicole and Mya a hard time. I would have to look to see if he had the same issues with kristi. Pair a good dancer with Derek and look out.
I think it’s one of three things. 1-he plays the leveling game with the good dancers, either on his own or at the directions of tptb to make the show a horse race; 2-he really loves Derek. I’ve tried to tell Derek fans this and they don’t believe me, but I think he really likes him and respects his talent, so he does what a lot would do – work overtime to make sure no one thinks he’s biased. There are many instances where derek has said that len comes up to him after the show and raved about his dance. This is why mark better hope they never get Shirley as a judge – I think she would do the same; 3-he also tends to be a bit harder on women who don’t fit the standard ballroom type and he loves those that do. See shawn and Melissa (both times). See lil Kim. If you are lean and have good legs and can make decent pictures (and have essentially no shot at winning in his mind) you will get good scores: see Maria, Joanna, Erin, Melissa…
Those are my theories – some combination of thse three thing are always at work with Len, I think. If Kelly is a decent dancer I expect she will have no trouble from Len. If Aly is a great dancer, I think she will have some trouble but not as bad as Shawn. I expect that if jacoby is a decent to good dancer he’ll get no credit for it at all. Dorothy will get raves. I could go on but I’ll have to see them dance.
I would put Aly at the top too. Mark lucked out due to height dynamics IMO and he’s edgy which could be exactly what Aly needs. Aside from that, I sense this season will be a popularity contest.
I don’t know who most of these people are, so two random thoughts. Aly is young, and if you remember Shawn her first time around, she was too young to really portray (and perhaps even understand) the emotions involved with the dances. Technically she’ll probably be good. I do remember Dorothy; she was wonderful. And the haircut that became an overnight sensation. My thought on her is that since she is still doing Stars on Ice (lots of work, time and energy involved) there’s got to be a limit to what she can physically do. Also, she sounded as though she is only just recovering from her cancer treatment. Hope she does well, though. I’m a fan! And she’s got Tristan!
I’m expecting to see another Winner-Take -All Cha Cha Cha Dance off in order to benefit Val & his partner.
I agree about Jacoby’s arrogance. People might be sick of NFL players winnings and he is arrogant, it won’t help. Plus Raven nation isn’t as large as Steeler nation or Packer nation.
Victor and Lindsay might surprise people. They remind me of Julianne and Apolo a little bit (visually and attitude-wise). Both of them have a low fan base maybe the issue unless America falls in love with them…possible. Apparently, they fell in love with Tony last season.
Thank you for posting this, Vogue!!!! As my Dad used to say, you have to be busier than a one-legged man in a butt-kicking contest this time of year! You and PH and Court do a FANTASTIC job!
At this point in the season, these Las Vegas odds really crack me up.
Like the mods have said before, they don’t seem to take a lot into consideration. I think Zendaya is way too high, Victor is probably too high, and Dorothy too low. Like Court said, Disney kids (with the notable exception of Kyle) haven’t done real well, and neither have boxers. I know Dorothy is no spring chicken, but the figure skaters have done pretty well, and she is an icon. Ingo is currently my dark horse favorite – he’s obviously got the acting ability to get him through dances like the tango, and like Soapy said, he’s also got the athletic mindset. If the chemistry clicks between Ingo and Kym, it could be a powerful combination.
Sad to see dances like “contemporary” on the schedule, but all in all – BRING IT ON! I’m psyched for season 16!
Yup I wouldn’t be so quick to knock off Victor and Lindsay. They are gonna bring it I can feel it! Lindsay is gonna bring some fresh stuff and Victor being so hardworking and determined, I’m getting a Donald Driver feel from him. They are gonna be great.
MY STANDINGS:
1. Jacoby and Karina
2. Aly and Mark
3. Victor and Lindsay(my favs)
4. Zendaya and Val
5. Dorothy and Tristan
6. Kellie and Derek
7. Sean and Peta
8. Lisa and Gleb ( I know it’s kinda high but I have a good feeling about these to)
9. Ingo and Kym
10. Andy and Sharna
11. Wynonna and Tony
12. D.L. and Cheryl
Honestly, I’m watching for Wynnona this year. I know she won’t make it till the end, but I’ve been a fan of hers for years and I hope she does well. She’s had some tough times in her life and I hope she has fun with this.
Otherwise, I really don’t know most of the others that well. So I’m going to wait for the first couple of dances to see how everyone does.
I never take too stock into these LV odds before anyone has even hit the dancefloor.
I really don’t have a clue who will win this season, can’t remember when that has happened before.
As of right now My favorites are: Dorothy and Tristan, Andy and Sharna, and probably Kellie and Derek. I think Wynonna may get too harsh too quickly for me, and probably turn me off.
without seeing any of them dance, I’m thinking Aly, Jacoby, and Dorothy for the finals. Of course, time will tell how off I am. That being said, I do hope Andy pulls a Nancy Grace. I probably agree with the mods more than the odds-makers. And hoping for no WTA dances or other gimmicks undermining the voters.
I love reading these comments. I have absolutely no clue how to rank these folks now. Carry on, all.
I can’t really take odds seriously until we see their first dances. The top 5 seem reasonable guesses, but until I see Kellie dance I’m having a little trouble with her quite that high.
I think Dorothy Hamill will last longer than currently predicted here. If Ingo can dance (he’s athletic but that doesn’t always translate to smooth dancing)I think he has a shot to make the finals. He’s charming and I think he and Kym will really click.
If Karina can wrangle Jacoby and get him to work hard and hide his arrogance, I think he’ll be a good dancer with a shot at the finale.
These are my early predictions and my reasoning behind it:
1)Ingo and Kym: He seems fun, seems like he has a good sense of humor, he has the GH vote, looks like he is going to be a good dancer and he has Kym. Dance I’m most escited to see from him: Foxtrot
2)Jacoby and Karina: Normally, I would put the football player right at the top BUT he reminds me of Chad Ochocinco in a weird way but looks like he is hoing to be a great dancer. Dance I’m most excited to see: paso doble.
3)Kellie and Derek: She is a hoot, looks like she is going to be a great dancer (she reminds me of Maria Menounos) and has Derek. Dance I’m most excited to see: Jive.
4)Aly and Mark: She is kinda dull personality wise but I’d bet she is a great dancer. Plus, Mark knows how to deal with shy people and bring out their personality (Melissa, Bristol). Dance I’m excited to see: Oddly enough thr waltz.
5)Dorothy and Tristan: Love this pairing. Love it. I’d bet she is going to be really good. Dance I’m most excited to see: foxtrot.
6)Zendaya and Val: This girl can dance but I’d bet she gets eliminated week 6 like Sabrina becuase Disney kids don’t make the finals often. Dance I’m excited to see: Jive
8)Lisa and Gleb: She has a lot of personality and his cha cha on “DWTS Australia” was really entertaining. Dance I’m most excited to see: quickstep.
9)Wynonna and Tony: Team Personality. Cannot wait to see them cha cha.
10)D.L. and Cheryl: This is a great pairing but comedians don’t fare well. Dance I hope he makes it to: Quickstep.
11)Victor and Lindsay: It pains me to say it but I know boxing fans and they were telling me that they would never vote for him. He seems like a nice guy though…hopefully he sticks around. Dance I want to see him make it to: tango.
12)Andy and Sharna: In the ideal world, I would never want him on the show. BUT since he is there already, he could be good but even if he is good…….I’d still peg him as the first one out. dance I hope to see from him: foxtrot.
And even if Sean and Peta are the twelfth couple (Which I hope they are becuase it would be great), I’d guess thy would be 7. I kinda think he might do well if he is on the show.
I’m scared for Ingo week 1 though.. Him and Kym have “Contemporary” which I’m not sure how he’ll do with his big physique. Not only that but he’s gonna have to portray a lot of chemistry with Kym which by week 1 is hard to get. I like him though. I hope he sticks around for a while even though I dont see him winning. He strikes me as an Ian Ziering: Good looks, can dance and gets good-ish scores but only makes it to the semifinals.
10-DL
9-Andy
8-Wynonna
7-Ingo
6-Victor
5-Zendaya
4-Kellie
3rd-Aly
2nd-Dorothy
1st-Jacoby
I have no idea who will capture the viewers’ fancy this season, but more than ever I feel it will be a battle of personalities and fan bases.
There seem to be a lot of likeable celebs on this season. My opinion on that could change once we start seeing how they react to the stresses of training and performance.
I adore Dorothy and Tristan. I have my fingers crossed they’ll dance well and hope viewers fall in love with them.
I think Ingo and Kym will have *amazing* chemistry as well as looking like a million bucks and having easy-going personalities that draw in voters like bees to honey.
I don’t think Jacoby is arrogant, but I think he’s overconfident. He’ll have to dance and sway regular viewers because I don’t think Ravens Nation will be enough to get them to the finals.
Andy will try hard, but unless he’s really got the moves, he won’t make it that long.
Zendaya? Don’t know what to make of her chances. Except for Kyle, Disney stars haven’t excited viewers, but if the tween girls fall in love with her and Val’s partnership (a la “Twilight”), they’re exactly the obsessed types that will create hundreds of accounts and vote all night for her. Still don’t know it that’s enough for a win.
Wynonna I see knocking out much better dancers because she connects with the demo that votes for overweight, over 50 star and she’ll have her diehard fans behind her as well.
Kellie and Derek could be one of the coupeles Wynonna knocks out. Kellie needs to bring her dance and performance skills and Derek will have to get super creative with his choreo to get them noticed both by fans and judges.
Andy, DL, Lisa and Aly could get lost in the shuffle, and at this point Sean is a complete non-entity.
Oops, forgot Victor and Lindsay…and although they seem sweet, earnest and hard working, I fear a lot of people will forget them unless they really make a statement week 1.
Without seeing their personalities and dance capabilities……….
Top 6:
Kellie and Derek
Jacoby and Karina
Ingo and Kym
Wynonna and Tony
Dorothy and Tristan
Aly and Mark
Bottom 6:
Zendaya and Val
D.L. and Cheryl
Andy and Sharna
Lisa and Gleb
Lindsay and Victor
Bachelor and Peta
I think Ashley L’s list of top 6 and bottom 6 is probably pretty solid. Wynonna and Tony could swap into the bottom 6 if one of them turns out to be a really good dancer with a great story or great personality that people get behind – best candidates for that (at the moment) seem to be Zendaya and Val or Andy and Sharna (based on interviews with the couples). It depends partly on how good (or bad) Wynonna is, and if people are eager to support Tony after last season.
I’d like all the couples with new pros to stick around for a few weeks, just so we can get to know the pros. I’m always sad when a new pro exits early – especially if they turn out to be a one season pro. I wish we could have seen more of Inna Brayer the season she was on (for example).
Best candidates for leaving first seem to be DL & Cheryl, Victor & Lindsay
or the twelfth couple (esp if it’s the Bachelor guy). I think Derek and Kellie will at least make semifinals if not the finals – Derek has had one celeb finish 6th, one finish 5th, and the rest finish 4th and above, and I think Kellie has it in her between personality, fanbase, dance ability, and Derek to make it as well. Really not sure who will win – I would say that Aly, Kellie, Jacoby and Dorothy have the best shot on paper – but you never know what will happen once they dance. Looking forward to the season!!
I don’t think Ravens Nation will carry Jacoby either…..sad to say since I like Karina.
Perhaps if Victor charms the audience the way Kyle Massy did, he can stick around.
I think if Dorothy can stay injury free she can make the semi finals.
I know they have decent fan bases, but sorry to say Wynonna and Lisa could barely walk to their seat and get up on them at the cast announcement, so I think once jive, jitterbug, and even the rumba are throw at them, it’s sayonara.
Forgot to mention that from what I remember from shows and polls, most people were rooting for the 49ers in the Superbowl ( probably because of Ray Lewis being on the Ravens, who knows). Can kind of guess that Jacoby won’t win most of the California votes lol.
Also, I know some people like to vote hometown favorite, but like we saw with Melissa and Emmitt, I think Dorothy and Jacoby both being from Baltimore puts a kink in the hometown favorite vote for fans in Maryland and the surrounding region.
Yes, Mark has gotten an Olympian partner for the third time.
However, during his time on DWTS, he’s also handled Kim Kardashian and 2 seasons of Bristol Palin (the second time being the All-Star season where almost all of the other pros had strong partners). He’s had partners of so-so ability (Melissa Joan Hart and Shannen Doherty) and partners who were good dancers but whose weaker fanbases likely prevented them from placing farther than they did (Sabrina Bryan, Chelsea Kane, Kristin Cavallari, Katherine Jenkins).
So, all in all, I feel that Mark has had a fair spectrum of partners and doesn’t deserve to have “third Olympian” held against him and Aly.
I also want to give Mark some credit for his two mirror-ball wins by pointing out that, even though there are obvious advantages, Olympic gold medalists don’t always win DWTS, including those whose sports suit them to ballroom dancing (e.g. Evan/Anna, Alec/Natalie Coughlin, even Shawn/Derek last season). And as has been pointed out already, Aly and Mark may not win this season either.
I don’t understand how people are making predictions and we have yet to see these people dance or any interview videos? I’ll know after I see a couple of practice videos.
Zun, I think people are excited for the season and are just having fun.
You said it jess. This can often be the best time of the season — all the couples still have a chance, everyone’s favorite is still in it, and we’re not PO’d at the Stooges and TPTB for messing up our favorite show!
That’s true Cidra, I hadn’t thought about it like that, I’ve been wanting the season to hurry up and start. For all the reasons you stated, there is an innocence during the preseason build up that’s worth enjoying while it lasts.
Shawn and Derek should have won. She was so much better on all stars. But that season itself was just…off.
Mark deserves the three Olympians held against because it his third one not just Olympians but Olympians whose fan bases overlap perfectly with dwts. Swimmers are not as household names besides Lochte and Phelps and they are not expected to have dance ability. He may have had Bristol twice and Kim, but he has had tons of ringers and partners like Shannen and Melissa who are as middle of the road as most of Derek’s partners. Whiney as Bristolwas, she called out Mark about checking out without ringers. He does. Saw it with Shannen and Melissa. Mark was been just extremely lucky. Based on interviews, sounds like Aly wanted Val as a partner but given how tall the Disney star is, it limited choices. Mark is just very lucky and has been since his Dwts start. If Aly wins, all of Mark’s wins would be with those three Olympians. That is if. Considering how much better Shawn danced in all stars and was so memorable with an amazing freestyle but still lost, I would be upset if Aly won. Compare that to Derek, who has won three times with Brooke, a fifty old Jennifer and one ringer. But a ringer who was not as beloved as Kristi or Shawn. It is just rich considering how many good partners Mark has had, yet the fave argument goes to Derek.
Nice try, Cali, but no. For one thing – last season doesn’t count, since it was screwed up from the very beginning by pitting people who had never won against people who had. Add in that Shawn danced better with Derek than she ever did with Mark and makes it even less important.
Just because he didn’t win with Sabrina, Chelsea, Kristin and Katherine doesn’t mean they weren’t GREAT gets in terms of partners – add in THREE Olympians he’s been pretty blessed. You seem to confuse where they finish with their actual ability or how good of a get they are – and that’s hardly accurate. And that includes for Melissa and Shannen – neither was a terrible dancer or a partner that you wouldn’t want to get – they just didn’t finish that high. That Mark hasn’t been able to win without having an Olympian partner says more about HIM and the other celebs on during that season than it does his partners. Even Mark’s “crap” dancers have had huge plus sides – just look at Kim Kardashian now. And Bristol Palin? He took her to the finals the first time and got huge media exposure from dancing with her.
Point is – people complain about Derek’s partners all the time and cry that he’s favored. But he’s only had ONE Olympian (who had already won once – strike) and plenty of so -so partners – just like Mark. Just like Maks. Hell, even Tony has had good partners. Mark is the ONLY one of four men, though, that got THREE Olympians that fall squarely in the voting Demo of DWTS. You neglect to mention that part. No, not all Olympians do well – but the skaters and the gymnasts sure do. Evan Lysacek would have been a shoe-in, easy win in ANY season that didn’t have a Nicole Scherzinger. But you know what? People on twitter are already saying that Derek is favored because he got Kellie – THAT is how brainwashed some of the viewers are. DEREK is the one who doesn’t deserve to have his partners held against him. He’s a victim of his own choreography and his ability to make even the so so people look good. People also like to claim favoritism with all of Derek’s partners even though no one could predict in advance that either Brooke or Nicole would win, especially considering who they were dancing against.
So, why is no one bitching about Mark, eh?? I guess Derek should be flattered that he’s seen as such a threat. But I find the hypocrisy and double standards damned annoying.
Well, Zun – you come back then and comment. Until then, let people make predictions how they see fit.
Well said Princess Heidi – you have such a way with words.
I get so tired of the Derek bashing. Mark has been so fortunate with all his partners and yet escapes “bashing comments”.
I feel for Derek’s partners because they have a target on their backs before they even step on the dance floor.
Am looking forward to seeing how all transpires this year and hope the judges are “fair” to all couples (looking through a crystal ball as I type this)
LOL I just said I didn’t understand. People can gladly make their predictions.
Thanks for your permission.
It’s a good rule of thumb to comment on the posts and NOT on the content of what others are talking about.
@PH – I definitely agree with you on a lot of things. I’m sure Mark realizes his two wins are with Olympians. Part of what turns me off to Aly and Mark is the fact that Mark will definitely become trophy hungry. I saw it with Katherine, and I saw it with Chelsea. When Mark thinks that he’s entitled to go far, he makes it his number one priority. Mark has had some big names in his queue of celebrity partners. I think I can call Aly, with about 75% certainty, the winner of Season 16. But we’ve had upsets before, so who knows. Does that mean I won’t vote for her? Not really. I like Aly (despite the monotone voice in the OTRC interview). I just won’t be voting for her as much as someone like Zendaya or Jacoby.
In the past, I was one of those brainwashed people that thought Derek got all the good partners. I was definitely against him with Ricki, for sure. But Maria kind of got me on the fence with Derek again, and then Shawn basically shoved me back on Derek’s side. He’s had some lesser known people, and people seem to forget that. Part of my realization that Derek’s in fact NOT favored in terms of casting is from all of your defenses for him. It’s kind of sad that he gets so much flack. And I have to apologize for anything I’ve said about him (not necessarily on here, but in general) because he’s fantastic. I’m excited for Kellie and Derek.
The biggest difference between Derek and Mark is that Derek doesn’t throw a little temper tantrum when the judges say his choreography isn’t traditional (I.E. Mark’s bitch fit over Len’s comments about his Paso Doble with Chelsea). Having said that, it makes me wonder which Mark we’ll see this season. Either way, he’s got his eyes locked on that trophy, as I said above. I just hope Mark doesn’t turn the audience off to Aly because of his behavior. (Side note – Derek doesn’t even act like that and he still gets criticized. But Mark does and no one seems to care?)
The fact that Mark gets his 3rd Olympian and no one seems to care or notice says (to me at least) that Mark doesn’t resonate that much with the DWTS viewership outside of his core group of fans. He’s a fine dancer and a creative choreographer but he just doesn’t have the “it” factor that Derek and Maks have. With those two guys, love ‘em or hate ‘em, they have that certain something, that charisma, that makes people react to them and talk about them. In the long run, even if I get painted with the wrong brush, I’d rather be a Derek or a Maks than a Mark.
I would agree with Cidra – Mark doesn’t have that “it” factor that Derek has. When Mark has someone who isn’t a natural, he doesn’t always get very far, whereas Derek has managed to take celebs that *aren’t* that talented to the end. Anyone who thinks Ricki was a natural dancer and a shoo-in for the finals is nuts, and I think with any other partner, both Shannon Elizabeth and Joanna Krupa may have been train wrecks. Derek just manages to bring out the best in his celebs, to the point where people assume he just gets all the ringers and best dancers (when he doesn’t). I venture to say that Derek could have gotten Kim Kardashian to the second half of the season…
I think Zendaya is ranked too high and Dorothy is a bit too low. A larger percentage of the audience is going to know who Dorothy is as opposed to a 16-year-old Disney actress. Dorothy is still regarded as one of the most popular Olympians in American history and she has an endearing quality about her. Unless she’s just a horrible dancer, which I don’t envision, I think she’ll get the votes to stick around for a while.
I don’t see Aly being quite as endearing. She obviously is fit and will be able to do a lot of tricks, but I don’t see her having the personality to connect with the audience. Kellie will be full of personality and I think she’ll move okay, but I think her schedule may prove to be challenging..
My guess is that Ingo will have the ability and the votes to make it at least that far and probably further. One has to have great balance to excel at his sport. The real question is how his foot placement will be. I don’t see him being another William Levy where all he does is shake his butt, rip his shirt off, and have his partner dance around him. I think Kym is a better teacher than Cheryl.
I agree with the bottom four. I do not believe that Wy will be another Kirstie Alley. Yes Wy has had a loyal fanbase, but I don’t think she will move as well or have the work ethic that Kirstie had. Between the heels, the costumes, and the amount of effort required I don’t see her going that far. And if Hurricane Wynonna blows, Tony is going to wish he were still training Kate plus her eight kids… I predict that if Wy doesn’t happen to sustain some sort of an injury before the show begins she’ll probably do so within a few weeks after the show begins.
I agree with the previous posts about Derek having the IT factor and Mark lacking it. They are both very good dancers and choreographers, but for me the difference is that Derek is truly passionate about teaching people to dance. I remember him telling his partners backstage to smile and enjoy the moment of the dance and I think that is why we often see those “I miss dancing with Derek” tweets from his former partners.
Even though I like Derek so much more than Mark, I also feel that Derek has the advantage of not being the son of ballroom dancing legends. I suppose it must be a very heavy burden to handle while growing up. Derek comes from a lineage of ballroom dancers, but at a different level. Maybe that is why Mark is so eager to prove himself to the audience. And Derek has a vision which sets him apart from the other choreographers on the show.
Kellie has a huge fan base so I would presume that’s why people are saying Derek received favorable treatment. Of Derek’s recent partners, I do think Maria and Ricki went further than perhaps they should have, especially Maria. I loved Maria, but if I hadn’t been rooting for her and Derek I would have been pissed, big time.
This is all so preliminary, but unlike the majority here, I think Mark’s going to hit it out of the park with Aly. He may not be Derek, but he is great at what he does and if he can get Aly to have fun and follow his lead, I will be shocked if they’re not in the finals. Of all the contestants I would think she and Dorothy will be the most familiar to viewers.
Different strokes… I personally prefer Mark to Derek.
Derek may be better at fine tuning his choreography to best fit his partner’s strengths while keeping it generally interesting. Mark does his own thing choreography wise. But Derek’s teaching style and rehearsal time are largely about him (gently) controlling the whole process and leading his celebrity 100% of the time. To me it can be overbearing. I’ve seen a couple of rehearsal interviews with him&Shawn where he talks all over her. There was one where he filled almost the whole time, Shawn didn’t get to say two sentences in a row. He doesn’t do it in a rude way (like Maks would) but he still very much wants to be in total control of the process. It’s like those women become little girls or projects in a way. The notable exception was Nicole, being such an accomplished dancer on her own, he allowed her some input and initiative.
Mark is also not the greatest at letting his celebrity be who they are, for better or worse. Tristan is better at it so there’s definitely room for improvement. But I appreciate Mark’s ability to just go in a totally different direction when things are not working out according to plan. He put Bristol in a monkey suit and I love him for it. He can just be goofy and carefree and laugh at himself. “All stars” he checked out and did just the basic stuff, but who can blame him after dealing with Bristol the second time.
I don’t think it makes much sense to say: why are people not complaining about Mark getting his third Olympian. Isn’t it better that people don’t complain? Isn’t it the goal that there be as little complaining as possible, no matter what pro be in question? It makes no sense (to me) to go down the comparison road. If you say “Mark has gotten better partners than Derek” then you can also say “Derek has gotten better partners than Tony” and “Tony better than Jonathan”…
They get who they get. Complaining about it whether it is for Derek, Mark or Tony is pointless.
Personally, as a Derek fan,the “Derek always gets the best partners” line bothers me because of the amount of hate he seems to get on other boards and websites. He just can’t win with some people. If he gets to the finals it is because of his ringer partners or blatant judges favoritism…They should give credit where credit is due. He may be controlling, but he has been long enough in the show to know how it works and some of his celebrities were kind of shy, so perhaps it was natural for them to take a back seat and let him handle interviews. But this is just my humble opinion.
Reading some comments here… I don’t understand what’s about Mark and an olympian… For me, the ones to beat are always the footballers. Marianya can be more accurate than me, but, I guess, on avarage, footballers always do a better run than the olympians…
And Cheryl got a footballer three times…
Anna – Jerry, Kurt
Cheryl – Emmitt (2x), 85
Kym – Warren, Hines
Edyta – Lawrence
Anna D. – Michael
Peta – Donald
i don’t see how vegas or people can make assumptions without seeing one dance! it seems silly to me…i mean the show is based on how good the celebs do dancing..but its also how well they connect to the audience, have a fan following, and who peaks at the right time. For me- I am a little gymnast out…back to back seasons is a bit much and when mark says he is bringing out the sassy to me that means he wants to break rules and try to bring a funky new choreo to the stage…um, didn’t we just see that?! Anywhos- football players always do well…but ones with too much confidence might do just the opposite and turn people off- i think we just saw that with fan favorite Gilles. As for Kelli- she was a cheerleader and a gymnast back in the day…plus some innate natural ability (hyper-extended legs, etc) she might actually be better than some think…Derek will def accentuate those assets. Plus she has the whole country twang going on and i think that is very relatable. I also think Dorothy could be the Jennifer Grey…nostalgic, good dancer, and likeable- it will be interesting to see what Tristan brings to the table choreography wise bc up until now i haven’t seen much and yes i get it..the partners. So, here is to March 18th and waiting to make my predictions after I see the first dance!
There are too many variables involved to make any meaningful predictions who’ll win and or make the finals this early into the competition. And there is no way to estimate what these variables could be.
However, we can predict who’ll have two left feet, and who’ll know his/her left foot from his/her right foot.
The thing that bores me with DWTS is that casting is to predictable. We can estimate how far a reality star or a football player can go ( give or take 1-2.) I wish they didn’t cast by category.
As for Derek, He never had a Bristol type. #enoughsaid
#50 interesting….um, i would say Maria was pretty close to a Bristol type. Other than their natural chemistry as people- She had no natural rhythem, 2 left feet, and was so injured that when you watch their dances back there were times she was barely moving her feet! What about Ricki Lake? Would you say she was a great dancer? Derek makes his partner look better than they are. Oh, and let’s not forget Shannon…she was pretty bad.
@Joey
In my mind it’s not so much an ability issue. I would, like you, estimate that Maria wasn’t much better than Bristol ability wise. But personality wise Derek didn’t have a partner who wasn’t willing to try their hardest in spite of (lack of) ability. Bristol arguably was that kind of a partner. The kind who made a small progress and thought it was huge. Who had very little trust in her pro. I don’t think it was Mark’s fault and I don’t think any other pro could have done much better with her. They actually had some good dances, in spite of everything.
Y’know, I’ve about had it with everyone whose sole purpose for commenting is complaining about how it’s “too early to make predictions” – don’t like it? Don’t read it, and don’t bother commenting on it. What you’re doing is called thread crapping – Google it. Let the rest of us do our thing and resist the urge to waltz in with a haughty attitude and implicitly chastise those of us who dare to speculate “without seeing the first dance”. Funny thing is, this is nothing new – the first set of Vegas odds always come out just a few days after the cast announcement. Not sure why some of you are suddenly up in arms about it now. And for those of you who think it’s absolutely necessary to see a couple dance before making a prediction about how they’ll do this season – apparently you’ve forgetten that this isn’t just a dance competition. It’s a popularity contest, and it’s a battle of fanbases. We’ve seen pretty damn good dancers leave before crummy ones, just due to differences in fan base. I can’t believe I still have to remind people of this, after 15 seasons…
And as for you, Jeniffer – I’m beginning to notice a pattern with the way you comment: you only seem to crop up to generally be contrary, assert your superiority, and say things with the sole purpose of inciting people. I suggest you change the tone of your comments – fast – or I could see comment moderation in your future. Enough said – because it’s pointless to hash tag when you’re not on Twitter.
I wonder if the odds have changed with any significance with the news of Jacoby’s surgery and his having to miss 2 weeks of rehearsal.
Jacoby’s surgery? Is this new news?
Oh, I think Mark will do well with Aly, Katarina. That was kinda my point. He does very well with ringer types and checks out when he doesn’t have one.
Kellie has a huge fanbase?? REALLY? No, I don’t think so. Not compared to Wynonna, or Aly, or Jacoby, or Dorothy…I consider her to be one of the ones with the smaller fanbases this season. Unless I’m seriously missing something. Hell, I live in Nashville and I don’t hear much about her at all.
Good point, sasa…in a way. Thing is, there has been bitching galore about Derek while nary a peep about Mark – that horse has already left the barn. Now we’re just telling people who left the door open that they’re STOOPID. Mixing my metaphors to say – nice idea, but until people stop bitching about Derek, kinda pointless.
As for Derek and control – that’s his job. Talking during interviews – he does that when his partner is slow to respond to questions, some times, but I’ve seen plenty where Shawn or others did all the talking. He did most of the talking with Kellie mainly because everyone was asking him why he was still there or about the TV show on Starz.
I think it would be a mistake to assume that there isn’t a discussion between Derek and his partner about what they want to get out of the experience – do they want to win, or just learn to dance, or what? Because their goal is what shapes the process. And part of that, as Cheryl says, is interviews and packages. Why else did Derek and Nicole write a song about the camera always being on – clearly there was a “talk” about packages. I would bet a lot of money that there is a discussion about all of that and what they want out of it. Derek plays this show like the game it is better than ANYONE for a reason. His partners go far for a reason. It’s all part of the same package. When you have judges that are full of shit and you know it, you have to coach your partner on how not to react – prepare them. Jump in when Brooke asks a stupid assed question.
Blah blah blah Jennifer. Maks has had more ringers than anyone, so you’ve no room to complain. Derek had Joanna who was most certainly considered a “Bristol Type” until Derek got a hold of her. But revisionist history is sooo much easier, ain’t it?
Actually, Joanna would have been considered worse than Bristol, if not for the politics associated. Much discussion about how vile and awful she was on that show she was on with Maks – much fear that Maks would end up her partner. I remember all kinds of crowing with happiness fans who were all “FINALLY, Derek gets a crap partner!!” Much rejoicing was had, until he made her stick around for a while and then they re-cast her as a ringer cuz she had ballet when she was 11.
I know a lot of people see as Aly as the one to beat, the favorite but I would actually laugh if she ended coming out and having two left feet, no rhythm and i wonder what all those people would be saying then.
I think you’re revising history, Sasa. Most of us here were very pleasantly surprised by Bristol the first time around, and were even rooting for her. Her small progress/thinking it was huge and expecting great scores was all from Mark, IMO and came towards the end of the season – you could see it in how he reacted to their scores. As for her second time around – she absolutely NAILED Marks ass to the wall and she was right. She could read exactly the same things we could read – that Mark expected to dance with Sabrina, or at the very least, Shawn. He campaigned like crazy for Sabrina, straight up.
Why should she try when Mark behaved like that? I don’t like her…but I find it hard to blame her.
Come back if that actually happens, Kelly.
Been nice knowing you.
@PH
I don’t blame Bristol but I also don’t blame Mark. I blame the producers for having Bristol in an all stars season. That made absolutely no sense at all, at least to me. They were both put in a difficult situation and there was hardly a good way to go about it.
As far as Bristol’s expectations for great scores go, I tend to think it was more her than Mark but I could be wrong of course.
And regarding Bristol’s first season, I remember people rooting for her from the beginning till about half way or a bit more through. After that it came down to either hating her for staying instead of better dancers or rebelling against the hate, which had just as little to do with her as anything regarding her actually being on DWTS, since she came in as a famous daughter more than as her own person.
Maybe the news of Jacoby’s surgery was known that’s why he wasn’t ranked first?
#30 Hun—Because this ISN’T JUST a dance competition lol.
#48 Carlos, Edyta also has footballer Jason (can’t remember his last name).
Yes, Sheery on season 6 =] thanks
i think Kellie has a decent fanbase…i know twitter doesn’t necessarily equate to doing well on dwts but she still has 700k plus followers, she has the exposure from American Idol, she has been nominated for top new female vocalist at the American Country Music awards- which she lost to Taylor Swift (not too shabby, amongst additional nominations), she has toured and accompanied Swift on different legs of her tours, and some people must know who she is since multiple media outlets have written articles about her drummer getting into a bad car accident (cnn, billbard, usa today). Not trying to be argumentative at all but just saying i think more people might know who she is than we think. Also, random but i follow On Air with Ryan Seacrest on twitter and Kellie was voted the favorite female country singer of all time (which caught my attention because it surprised me). After watching X factor this year it is obvious to me that this country loves their Country Music artists- meaning Wyonna will prob do well since most women will relate to her and the journey that she will go on.
I’m getting a little impatient. Please don’t post links or notices on news or interview items in comments. Use our “Contact Us” link in the top bar. Thanks so much.
on a side note…mark is already defending him and Aly on instagram- ugh, he is so predictable at times. why does he let people bother him?? I mean i think the people posting were like 15! lol
Has anyone seen new Odds out since Sean has been officially added to the cast? I checked Sports Bovada but couldn’t find more recent Odds than what is listed here.
Jenn, I’ve been watching that link too and was surpsided they didn’t add Sean. Wynn hasn’t updated their odds either.
Anyway, we watch this close and we’ll post a new post on this as soon as we are able to. Also, we usually post the odds on Fridays or Saturdays to give the bets/numbers time to roll in.