Dancing with the Stars Season 16, The Premiere – Who’s Dancing What…and When?

So, on twitter yesterday, Carrie Ann Inaba is already defending the choice of including contemporary as a dance style in this season of DWTS. Because Val and Kelly’s was so great. :::rolls eyes::: Um…no, not really. It didn’t suck, but it certainly wasn’t of the same caliber as the ballroom dances that week. Come on – these are BALLROOM professionals and most regular viewers fell in love with a ballroom dance show.

Okay, so you know I had to get that out there right off the bat, right? Now we can get down to business. I would really, really love to know how they choose who gets what dance. This post will be updated as we learn the dance order. As always, I expect the night one dance order be reflected in their voting number and/or vice versa. :-) The dances are as follows:

ETA: Remember – I am “assuming” that the voting number coincides with the dance order for week 1, like it has every other season -but they are screwing with things again, so this could change. Don’t know why it would.

ETA 2: Totally called Zendaya’s dance position at the top of the hour. :-)  The current order I have them in were my guesses…and I had Z right. I expect that will be the last one except for Kellie and Derek. :-)

ETA 3: Two for two!! Called Wynonna right as well.

ETA 4: Damn, I’m good. :-)  I’m on a streak – got Sean right as well.

ETA 5: Off by one spot on Dorothy and Victor. It was nice while it lasted. :-)

ETA 6: Geez, TPTB! Soooo predictable. Put the big Superbowl dude last, and your “family” at the top of the hour. People wanted to know how I was guessing, that’s one answer. :-)  Oh, and his Jersey number is 12, isn’t it??

ETA 7: With Derek FINALLY confirming they are going first, we have our complete dance order. I was right about both Kellie and Andy. :-)

Kellie and Derek – Cha Cha Cha
Dancing 1st – Song: Domino by Jessie J ?*?Domino - Domino - Single
Voting # 1-800-8683401

Victor and Lindsay – Foxtrot
Dancing 2nd
Voting # 1-800-868-3402

Ingo and Kym – Contemporary
Dancing 3rd
Voting # 1-800-868-3403

Lisa and Gleb – Foxtrot
Dancing 4th
Voting # 1-800-868-3404

DL and Cheryl – Cha cha cha
Dancing 5th
Voting # 1-800-868-3405

Zendaya and Val – Contemporary
Dancing 6th
Voting # 1-800-868-3406

Sean and Peta – Foxtrot
Dancing 7th
Voting # 1-800-8683407

Aly and Mark – Cha Cha Cha
Dancing 8th
Voting # 1-800-868-3408

Dorothy and Tristan – Contemporary
Dancing 9th (per Sarah Hughes)
Voting # 1-800-868-3409

Wynonna and Tony – Cha Cha Cha
Dancing 10th
Voting # 1-800-868-3410

Andy and Sharna – Foxtrot
Dancing 11th
Voting # 1-800-868-3411

Jacoby and Karina – Cha Cha Cha
Dancing 12th
Voting # 1-800-868-3412

**No insider info on Derek and Kellie’s song, only Derek singing it to her while they are dancing. Which is his way.

Okay, so look at who’s dancing what – anything stand out to you??  What stands out to me is that the three people likely to be in or near the top three have contemporary – the dance likely to be scored the easiest OR likely they are lucky to get it out of the way NOW.  Those likely to be the bottom three are all dancing Foxtrot. Everyone else has Cha cha.  Of course, there’s another way of looking at it – in each dance style there is one or two who are likely to be either good dancers or have great fanbases. And in each group there is one (or two) who could be cannon fodder.   In both the contemporary and foxtrot categories, we have members of the “Family” – Zendaya and Sean – which means that in week 2 they will likely get fun, upbeat dances…right before the first elimination.  I predict that both also end up near the top of the leaderboard, whether they deserve it or not.

So, you have three dance styles  – why not four couples in each style??  The math certainly works for them.  Unless of course, you use dance style as another manipulative tool.  :-)

Here’s some trivia for you.  Counting only seasons 5 through 16 and only including the pros who have been on most every one of those seasons (Derek, Mark, Cheryl, Tony, Maks, Karina, and Kym), do you think there is an even mix of who gets what on night one?? If you answered yes, you would be wrong. :-)

– Derek has danced Cha cha the first night 6 of his 11 seasons; the first four seasons he was on he danced Cha Cha. When he wasn’t dancing Cha Cha or sitting a season out he danced V. Waltz (3), Foxtrot (1), or Salsa (1)

– Karina has danced Cha Cha the first night 7 of that 12 season span; the other four seasons she danced foxtrot (3) and waltz (1), and sat one season out.

– Cheryl has danced Cha Cha the first night 9 of that 12 season span; the other three seasons she danced V. Waltz (2) and Foxtrot (1). If you include every season Cheryl’s been on the show, she’s danced Cha Cha on night one *12* out of fifteen seasons. Incredible.

– The remaining pros – Mark, Kym, Tony, Maks – danced cha cha on night one 5 of the 12 seasons, the rest being and even mix of other styles.

Since Cha Cha is always included in Week 1, with the other dance being V. Waltz or Foxtrot and the occasional quickstep and salsa, you would expect the pros do dance it about half the time…but Cheryl and the Week 1 Cha Cha is out of control. I’m not sure what it means, but it’s just trivia.  ;-)