DWTS 16 Preliminary Power Rankings – Part II
So you read my predictions for who is going to be gone before the midpoint of the season. Now it’s time for my predictions for who’s going to be sticking around longer…and who’s gonna win 🙂 Read on!
6.) Ingo & Kym – Not sure quite what to make of these two – they’re very likeable and seem to have great chemistry, Ingo seems willing to work hard and eager to do well, and Kym, as always, is a very patient, nurturing teacher that brings out the best in her partners. But while everything seems pretty on the surface, I can’t shake the feeling that Ingo may be a bit…awkward. The rehearsal video and the pix we’ve seen so far seem to reveal some “Ralph hands”, and Ingo himself has admitted that he’s not exactly a graceful guy. I’m also seeing shades of him taking things just a little too seriously – and we’ve seen how being a little too serious and a little too desperate to do well can torpedo a couple’s chances of getting votes. Now don’t get me wrong – compared to some of the couples on the bottom half of the list (namely D.L. & Cheryl, and possibly Sean & Peta), Ingo & Kym have a great connection and “taking things a little too seriously” is less of a problem than, say, having zero chemistry with your partner or having a partner that just doesn’t seem to give a hoot 😛 I just don’t know that Ingo & Kym are going to coast through this season like Hines & Kym did. Fanbase-wise? I’m inclined to say that Ingo will benefit somewhat from the “soap vote”, although likely not to the degree Kelly did – since Ingo’s character on GH seems to only be recurring at this point, I don’t know that he’ll have as many of the same impassioned fans that voted for Kelly, also voting for him. We already know Kym is pretty well-loved, so her fanbase should help out somewhat…but I think overall, these two will probably be more on-par with the Cameron Mathison/Edyta partnership, rather than the Kelly/Val one. There are just too many more popular celebs (likely with better dance skills) this season for a soap star to really have a hope and a prayer of making it to the finale, methinks.
5.) Zendaya & Val – No doubt Zendaya’s got some serious dance skills, and Val seems to have a good plan set up to really show America what she can do. But I still have memories of Roshon & Chelsea lingering in my mind, and that makes me worry that, no matter how great Zendaya is, she is probably going to struggle to get the votes to stick around, especially since she’s up against so many people with much bigger (and much more DWTS-compatible) fanbases. I think she’s probably a bit better off than Roshon, who seemed to suffer a bit due to what I would consider ho-hum choreography from Chelsie (and less of a pro fanbase); but may not be as well-off as Chelsea, who had the benefit of a popular pro with good choreography skills…as well as a big boost from TPTB to help her stick around. Which brings me to the elephant in the room: will TPTB be tempted to “pimp” Zendaya, who is part of the ABC family? I’d say if they’re tempted to do it with Sean, they’re probably also tempted to do it with Zendaya – but I doubt we’ll ever see that ridiculous “winner take all” dance again, after the outrage they saw after season 12. After all, the only assist Roshon seemed to get in season 14 was getting repeatedly saved in the face-off…and he actually deserved it, so I’m not sure that he got much of a boost when you really think about it. I guess I’m HOPING that America falls in love with Zendaya’s dancing and personality enough that they’re motivated to vote, so she ends up not really needing to be pimped – I do think she’s one of the more talented Disney kids we’ve had, and seems to have a laid-back, carefree attitude similar to Kyle Massey’s. So I am optimistic in that respect 😉 As for Val – I think it will be interesting to see if he benefits from his brother not being on this season, not only in terms of vote-splitting (which I’m not sure there was a whole lot of to begin with) but just in attitude as well…seems like Val has a better sense of focus this time around, and I think it might have to do with the fact that there isn’t so much of an obligation to put “family above all else” this season. I’m hoping Val shifts his focus to really honing his craft as a choreographer, because I do think he has the potential to be one of the more creative choreographers this season – and I’m hoping he puts less energy into promoting DWM and maintaining that fierce sense of loyalty that seemed to pervade last season. Loyalty to family is a great thing – but sometimes you need to spread your wings and develop on your own…and this seems like a good opportunity to do it 🙂
4.) Kellie & Derek – I know I’m probably going to catch hell for this, but here it goes: I just don’t see these two breaking into the top 3, no matter how well they dance. There, I said it – now please refrain from tweeting me to command me “don’t underestimate Kellie & Derek!” or telling me to “go watch their rehearsal video, I think you will see that they’re really good!” And yes, some of you have done exactly those things, and it annoys me to no end. 🙂 I see all the same videos, interviews, pictures, and polls you guys do, and I am well aware of what a good dancer looks like – I’ve done ballroom for 10 years. But it’s not all about the dancing – if that were the case, Shawn & Derek would have won last season. And while I acknowledge that Derek is probably the best choreographer & teacher on the show, and that he’s capable of taking his partners farther than anyone might have expected, and that Kellie’s legs are looking great, and they have “great chemistry” – the politics of last season lead me to believe, like Heidi, that Derek will probably never win another MBT, simply due to some truly wacky ideologies some fans have about the show. I still can’t believe that Shawn & Derek, who were the closest thing to a “sure thing” we’ve ever seen on the show, lost to a pro that’s never won before (and has frequently gotten sent home in the first 1-2 weeks of the show) with a partner with an iffy fanbase. Still not sure what voters’ motivations were in determining that outcome, but the pessimist in me thinks that there is, unfortunately, a “Derek backlash” happening…to the point where I think he might not ever win again. Add to that the fact that Kellie, while possessing a “huge country fanbase” (I put that in quotes because fans of just about every celeb claim that their celeb’s fanbase is “huge”), is still up against two Olympians and a NFL player – arguably the two most formidable voting fanbases in the context of DWTS. That right there tells me that, unless you have a gold medal or a Lombardi trophy, you probably have a snowball’s chance in hell of making it to the finale this season. However, I do think Kellie is looking pretty damn good, and does have an asset in Derek – so I could see her making it to the semi-finals. I will gladly eat crow if they manage to crack the top 3, especially if they manage to bump out one of the couples I’m less fond of, but I’m thinking the best they can hope for at this point is 4th. I’ll at least enjoy the ride 😉
3.) Dorothy & Tristan – Dorothy is adorable. Tristan is adorable. Dorothy looks fantastic for her age. Dorothy has a gold medal and a cult following. Tristan has never won. I think all of the above points to a pretty good chance of them making it to the finale – as long as Dorothy can make a splash and Tristan gives her some good choreography. I have no doubt that Dorothy still has some mad skating skills to tap into that will help immensely on the floor – she also seems to be very fit and very upbeat, and has a great work ethic. My only concern? Confidence. She, like Ingo, seems a bit unsure of herself, to the point that she might be a bit of a timid mover. I think it’s going to be up to Tristan to build up her confidence and help her come out of her shell. As for Tristan – this may be the season that we actually get to see what he’s made of, choreography-wise. Up until now, he’s been saddled with partners that have left him a bit limited in what he can create for them – I think Dorothy is his most apt pupil so far, so I’m expecting him to really let loose and create some great dances. We’ll see if he delivers 😉 As for fanbase – I think Dorothy may actually have Aly beat, as I’m seeing a lot more chatter about her from older fans with nostalgia for her skating days, than I am chatter from fans waxing poetic about the most recent Olympics. Aly’s the new kid on the block – Dorothy is the O.G. 😎 And I’ve noticed Tristan’s fanbase has been gaining momentum in recent seasons, so he may be a force to be reckoned with in terms of votes, too. I think these two definitely have the potential to make it to the finale, but I’m not sure that they can break the face-off for the top 2 that I’m predicting…
2.) Aly & Mark – I know everyone labeled them as a “sure thing” for the MBT when they were announced, but for whatever reason, I can’t shake the feeling that these two might not exactly rise to the high standards that have been set for them. If Shawn & Derek, the ultimate “sure thing”, can lose – the possibility is there for Aly & Mark. I’m sure Aly, like Shawn, will learn the steps with no problem…gymnasts, like skaters, seem to take to ballroom choreography with ease on DWTS. While I at first got a shy, meek vibe from Aly (much like I did on Shawn’s first season), I did see her coming out of her shell more in her rehearsal videos with Mark, which is a good sign. As for Mark – he no doubt has some great choreography up his sleeve. But will he be able to resist the urge to get too “experimental” while indulging his own creativity, and still give Aly the proper choreography to please the judges? Aly dancing well is only part of the equation – if she’s dancing routines that are too “out there” for Len’s taste, or that Carrie Ann thinks aren’t proper, she’s going to get docked…they did it with Chelsea, and I think they’ll do it again with Aly. So Mark will have to walk a fine line – create creative, memorable routines, while still doing “meat and potatoes” steps to please the judges. And then comes my biggest concern: is Aly only going to elicit constant comparisons to Shawn? They both are gymnasts, they both have danced with Mark – I think it’s only natural that the viewers are going to be mentally comparing the two. And unfortunately for Aly, I think she’s got a lot to live up to, if she’s going to be expected to do every bit as well as Shawn. Kinda makes me wonder if the viewers, while being “Derek’d out”, might also be “gymnast’d out”, too. I don’t know that it benefits Aly to be following right behind a season where another gymnast made such a splash. ..but who knows. I’m wondering if Aly & Dorothy are going to be splitting votes, and I’m inclined to think that Dorothy is more likely to get the bulk of them. But I think Mark may be getting more votes than Tristan. Honestly, not sure how this one will play out – but I can’t shake my gut feeling that this season’s winner will be…
1.) Jacoby & Karina – He’s fresh off a Superbowl win, he’s charismatic, he seems like he can actually dance, and (thank the lord) Karina seems to have tamed his arrogant streak, and he seems to be ready to work hard to do well this season. I think this is going to be one season where the NFL fanbase trumps the Olympic fanbase – especially since I think Aly & Dorothy might end up splitting votes. Jacoby’s also the first NFL player we’ve had that’s fresh off a Superbowl win – will be interesting to see if that gives him a bit of a boost in votes, since it was so recent. Dance skills? His actual technique is still yet to be seen, but this is a guy that seems really uninhibited and not afraid to “move big” – so he may even be better than Hines or Donald in that respect, since I found both of them seemed to “move small” from time to time. Appeal? I know he was turning some people off in the first few interviews he gave, but the ones I’ve seen in the past week seem to be more humble, and more realistic about the demands this season…I’m thinking Karina may have sat him down and taught him a thing or two 😉 As for Karina – I’m wondering if Apolo getting kinda screwed by the judges (and consequently, eliminated earlier than expected) last season is going to spur Karina’s fans to vote harder this time around…there are so many things that happened last season that leave me with no clue with what to expect this time around, really. But I’m gonna be optimistic and say that Karina’s fans are going to be a bit more tenacious this time around, and that the NFL fan base is going to be a bit asset. I’m excited to see what we get from these two.
So there we go – my initial predictions, without having seen anyone dance yet. What do you guys think? Who do you think will make the finale…and who will win? I’m sure there’s going to quite a lot of debate on this one…
I don’t disagree with anything you said unfortunately. I also think there are a lot of “mean-spirited” people out there who just vote against Derek. Yes I am a Derek fan, but because he is so good at what he does. He talked honestly and openly about last season in an article I read and he has no regrets about he and Shawn breaking the rules and said that he and Kellie would probably push the boundaries again this year. I get the impression that pleasing the fans is way more important to him than living within the rigid boundaries that the judges inconsistently set out. I say more power to him and I hope that the Derek and Kellie fans will be better about voting and sticking up for them this year than last year. I hope we as fans learned a lesson about the phenomenon of “haters”. That said, I am not sure if the Jacoby madness will be as strong as the Hines Ward madness…and I wonder if the Dorothy and Aly votes might be split just like I wonder about Wynona and Kellie. Should prove to be an interesting season. Thanks for all your hard work.
Your top three are the same guess Annie from EW had but she had Aly in third and Dorthy in second.
Great job again Court! I was shocked to read you put Kellie and Derek in 4th. I hate to say it though, but, I think you could be right about Derek not winning again. It seems people’s jealousy of how good someone is takes over and the “he’s won too many times, let someone else win” thing takes over. 🙁 Uggh, hate that. Anyway, I’m still hoping and thinking Derek and kellie might win or take 2nd. Whatever the case, I think your top 6 are going to be neck and neck for a Mirror ball. We may have the tightest competition DWTS has ever seen this year. I love them all and wish them the best!
I agree on the bottom 6 and top 6, but I’m not sure the producers will go with an athlete-only final. I haven’t been following the show for long, so I could very well be wrong, but I am under the impression that they like to have finalists from different backgrounds.
Just for fun, I will try to give my final three to (let see if I get at least one position right) and I’m gonna say Doroty and Tristan for the win, with Mark and Aly and either Derek and Kelly or Val and Zendaya as the other finalists.
I would like to see Karina win, but from last season I really got the impression that neither the judges nor the producers are particularly fond of her (again, I could easily be wrong). Plus Jacoby seems to have the classic love him or hate kind of personality, which can be good in the first weeks but become an issue later on. All in all, I think they are going to make it to the semifinals.
It’s going to all come down to how the general viewers see all the couples and if the general audience actually votes. If they DO vote, then they can overcome any fan factions comprised of idiots. 🙂 Unfortunately, I’m not entirely sure of the general audience vote any more.
At some point, they might actually wake up and see that most all of the pros that have been around for a while have won at least once -are they going to care enough to give it to the new kids?? Who knows.
But I have Jacoby for the win as well. 🙂 And if by some miracle it is a zendaya/Kellie/Aly final three, Zendaya wins by default because yes, the audience is just that stupid. Zendaya will have Maks and Tony’s fanbases voting like mad to make sure that neither Derek nor Mark wins again. Really kinda sad. I mean, what’s the point when it gets to be like that?
Great job Courtney. I agree with the top six.
I’m interested to see what Tristan can bring this year.
As some have already said I am so tired of people voting for anyone except Derek as Lynne said “mean spirited”. I am also a Derek fan so hope to see them in the final three, I think Kellie has the potential and determination.
I think it will be an exciting season.
So excited. Thanks for the post Court. I love reading all of the analysis behind the rankings!
6. Ingo and Kym – I’m worried about possible stiffness and evident pancake hands.
5. Aly and Mark – She does absolutely nothing for me. Flat, flat, flat. Especially compared to the ebullient Shawn who I keep comparing her to since they’re in back-to-back seasons. Aly just doesn’t have “it” for me. I wouldn’t be surprised if she left earlier.
4. Dorothy and Tristan – Just sweetness all the way around and then I think age will be a deciding factor as far as energy and ability compared to the top three.
3. Zendaya and Val – She could be a surprise winner depending on her personality. A long-shot but still a shot. Just please don’t go Roshon swag on me. I can’t stand kids or very young adults with attitudes, drives me nuts.
2. Kellie and Derek
1. Jacoby and Karina
I’m less sure about the order of my top 3. I initially picked Jacoby to win until I saw his initial over-confidence and no visual from rehearsal then changed to Kellie. Now if Karina has set Jacoby straight and he’s a good dancer then it’s a toss-up between first and second with Zendaya as the dark horse for me.
Thank you, Court! Wonderful to have these power rankings before the premiere – much fun to read and ponder over. It takes a certain something (that I lack) to actually put forth an ordered ranking when we have no idea what TPTB will pull out Mon night to assist in setting viewers’ expectations of the couples. On with the shows!
Great analysis. I agree with it for the most part, except I do see Kellie & Derek in the top 3. Not only does she appear to be good but she has personality to boot. I think the audience/viewers are gonna love her and Derek! I’m gonna give them top 3. Of course I’m worried about those people who want to vote against them because Derek’s a multiple winner but maybe it will be different this time but who knows. I know they’re going to be funny and I feel serious contenders for the MBT.
My guess for top 3 will be Kellie, Jacoby and I can’t decide between Aly and Dorothy. I have an weird feeling the Bachelor may creep in the top 3.
Overall, great cast. Looking forward to this season.
Don’t know how I got confused but I actually think Zendaya may make it to the semi-finals and possible finals. Which would mean I have to change my top 3. She’s good and seems to have a lot of love out there from both the parents and kids.
I’m going to go with Kellie, Zendaya and Jacoby. Now that would make for an interesting finals.
As usual, Miss Court, you’ve given us FANTASTIC analysis! Everything you wrote is well-reasoned. I’m just *hoping* you’re wrong in a few of your rankings… 😉 Since you asked for our take on the top 3, here’s my wish list:
Dorothy & Tristan
Ingo & Kym
Kellie & Derek
If I get that finale, I really don’t care who wins… 😀
While Kellie and Derek are my favorite, I am really hoping Dorothy and Tristan pull out the win.
Sally, I would love your finale to work out that way too.
Gonna say up front the I’m a Derek fan, that being said last season definitely proved that DWTS has been around so long that America is supporting the underdog. I’m also a Tristan fan and that’s why I agree that if he ups his choreo and Dorothy shines they’re going to be in the final. I also think that they could beat Mark & Aly if Mark on any two time or more MBT winner gets the same backlash Derek seems to be facing. Karina may luck out as she’s only one once & her fan base is likely to be more aggressive after last season. Jacoby is a question mark for me. Fan base wise he’s a shoe-in, but he’s coming in w/ an injury and we’ve seen how uninjured athletes & stars can get hurt during the full run of a season. Also I agree he’s not always likeable.
Agree completely that the top 6 are most likely correct. As for the top four only the season will tell how non fan base voters decide to align this time around. Is Kellie lovable and talented enough for them to look past her pros strong record and vote for the performance? Will Aly get lost in the comparison to Shawn or even Kristi as another Olympian and also a Mark Olympian? Will Jacoby’s arrogance/confidence get in the way of his and Karina’s potential or Dorothy’s confidence on ice roll over onto the dance floor? Only time will tell.
Annddd…Steph reaffirms my belief that Derek will never win again. You have a favorite but you hope someone else wins. Ta da!!!
They aren’t really your favorite if you want someone else to win, are they?? Or am I mis-reading this somehow?
#2 – Annie B on EW *did* have Jacoby, Dorothy and Aly as the top three, with Kellie as number four. However, since Sean was added to the cast, she has *him* in second, and everyone else bumped down. Ugh, ugh, ugh.
Top six – how will it play out? I agree with 5&6, though Zendaya may surprise us. If her personality and dancing really outshines Aly’s, then they might swap places.
I’m not sure about the top four. I think Kellie’s going to make it to the finals, and Dorothy may come in 4th. It depends if she becomes more confident, and able to attack the dances, or if she stays cautious and hesitant.
I can’t choose who’s going to win – it’s so uncertain. TPTB have their little manipulation games that play into everything, on top of the couples and their fanbases and dancing skills, etc, and we don’t know what that game will be this season. I’m sure it’s too optimistic to think they’ve learned their lesson after last season.
At this point, I don’t even know if I could put out the order I’d *like* the top six to end in, since I haven’t seen anyone dance yet. As far as winning – right now, I’d like Kellie to win, because I’m just enjoying her and Derek so much, and it looks like she’s going to be a good dancer.
Another great post, Court, and I can’t say I disagree all that much with your logic. I’m hopeful that once Dorothy has that first dance out of the way, her confidence may grow enough to take her all the way to the win.
I think Andy’s story/journey will be strong and he might make it into the top half. I don’t see them in the finals, though, but would love to be proved wrong by his WOW dance skills.
You and PH may be right about Derek, sad as that is. But I do see them besting Aly & Mark.
Is it Monday yet?!
Here’s to this season’s cast, with a heartfelt nod to Whitney Houston (may she have finally found peace)
Clock strikes eight on the hour
and the lights begin to fade
still enough time to figure out
how to plan a fast escape
Sean’s done alright up to now
and the lovely Peta will show him how
that when the night falls, shirtlessness calls
Kellie’s fixin’ to dance with somebody
wants to feel Derek’s beat every Monday
Andy craves to dance with somebody
dance with Sharna who gets him
Wynonna wants to dance with her Tony
wants to see her feet move with Tony’s
They all wanna dance with somebody
with somebody who needs them
Dorothy’s been around and earned her stripes
Tristan knows that well
Jacoby’s end zone dances excite
yet Karina has cast her spell
Victor needs a gal who’ll make him dance
and Lindsay’s just the one to take that chance
so when Monday night falls
we’ll all make our calls
DL wants to dance with somebody
wants to feel Cheryl’s heat every Monday
Lisa’s gonna dance with somebody
dance with Gleb and her Giggly too
Zendaya’s dancing with somebody
learning from Val how to move her body
They all wanna dance with somebody
with somebody who leads them
Somebody ooh somebody ooh
somebody who loves them yeah
Somebody ooh somebody ooh
To hold Kym in his arms yea
Ingo needs to come out and dance
and if Aly brings sass
will goofy Mark wear spats
They all wanna dance with somebody
wanna feel the beat with somebody
yeah gonna dance with somebody
with somebody who moves them
oh they’re gonna dance with somebody
gonna be the treat for somebody
yeah gonna dance with somebody
with somebody who reads them
dontcha wanna dance, say you wanna dance
dontcha wanna dance, uh-hu
I think that the winner will be between Jacoby and Karina and Aly and Mark. Jacoby is popuplar after the Super Bowl win and so is Aly after winning two gold medals at the Olympics by herself and with the Fierce Five. However, what might hurt Aly’s chances at becoming this season’s winner is that she will probably be compared a lot to Shawn and of course, there will always be those who will be complaining that gymnasts have an unfair advantage just like they did all last season.
I would love to see Derek and Kellie make it to the final three because Derek is one of my favorite pros, but I don’t think they will since they’re up against two Olympians and a recent Super Bowl winner. I agree with Princess Heidi and Courtney that Derek will probably never win again because there are some people who just don’t think it’s fair that he should win again when he has already won three times. After last season’s results, I believe that even more.
Ok, I agree with these rankings! 😉
#20
Ha! I can’t imagine why jimmbboe. Color me confused, NOT. 🙂
I agree with everything you said but would change the positions of some of the contestants:
6)Ingo and Kym: I thought in the begining that they would reach the finale but despite what seems to be killer chemistry, he seems like the kind of contestant that will do really well with ballroom and not latin so his scores will be all over the place. Also, I saw the ralph hands but ralph has more personality than him so all in all he looks like a good dancer but not one that will be really memorable.
5)Aly and Mark: Another couple that I like but they have the Shawn factor to deal with. People WILL compare her to Shawn and its unfair becuase they are two entirely different personalities. She looks like she is getting the moves but doesn’t have the “it factor” that Shawn has.
4)Zandaya and Val: This couple has personality to spare and she is ten times more likeable than Chelise, Cody, Monique, or Roshon. Saying that,will she get the votes or will the powers that be have too intervene at one point like they did with Chelsie?
3) Jacoby and Karina: I like him BUT he reminds me of more of an Ochocinco than and Emmitt ( Basically, he doesn’t have that “it factor” in my opinion). The dances involving lifts or passion like the tango or paso will probably be amazing though.
2)Doroty and Tristan: Love them. She absolutely has the right pro but doesn’t seem as confident. Saying that, her fanbase like you said plus his fanbase should keep her around to the end.
1)Kellie and Derek: Those pictures alone already show she is doing pretty good and is a natural. I never would have expected that from the girl on American Idol who did not know what calamari was. At this moment, she is the one to beat in my opinion.
Courtney thank you for such a rational analysis for the power rankings. I think you are right on when you combine the ability and fan base for each pairing. Unfortunately I’ve become such a cynic about the show, I think the third and perhaps biggest factor has to be who the show wants to keep around for ratings and who they don’t. Thus explaining how unpredictable the show has become. I’m wondering if we’ll get the best idea of who is going to last (or at least get the undying love of the judges), after we see the dance order.
My wild guess is that Lisa and D.L. are throwaways this season, even if they are partnered with the new hunk and an old time favorite pro. Ingo might have something to fear since Sean, another ABC guy is probably going to be forced on us as their shirtless wonder, but if he doesn’t spark interest the show will make sure to keep one “hunk” around as long as they can, since they seem to think that is what people tune in to see. Andy will stick around until almost the middle either because of his redemption story or because he is a train wreck waiting to happen. Wynonna will be kept around for the “weight loss” story unless she isn’t “fun”. I’m sure they will keep her around until at least “personal tragedy week”, but I suspect Dorothy will be the “older woman” they want to keep around, as long as Tristan can come up with interesting choreography. Victor will stay around as long as he is willing to play the “sweet shipper couple”. Jacoby should be the athlete to last longer but I’m not sure Karina can bring enough fun for the show or voters to keep them in to the end, especially if they try to tank her like last season. Zendaya and Aly should last very late into the season, because both are young and might bring in the young demo. Also both should be darn good dancers. As long as the show doesn’t push the Disney star too much and cause a backlash, Zendaya should do fine. Aly will have the gymnast overload/Shawn comparison to live with. Kellie should be near the top based on her pairing with a great pro and what seems to be some real ability. Derek may never win again but the show knows he has amazing choreography and brings in viewers.
I think after we see the dance order, we’ll know if some of our favorites are going to have a tough road ahead. Then we’ll know who the show thinks are their ratings stars.
I think I would switch Aly and Kellie in your rankings, Court. I honestly don’t think that Aly is going to charm anywhere near how Shawn did in her season with Mark. And conversely, I think that Kellie is going to charm the socks of of everyone. And while Derek may never win an MBT again, I do think he has the juice with the fans to get her into the finals. As for Maks’ fanbase – of which I am one – I don’t think it can be counted on to be a force for anything. *LOL* Myself, it’s doubtful if I’ll even watch DWTS live, opting for The Voice instead. My interest just isn’t strong enough. I’m seeing that in a lot of my fellow fans. Others of course are pulling for Tony and Wynonna, but most of the ones I see aren’t going to vote either for or against anyone. Might that change after tomorrow night? Could very well be.
So I think the final three will be Kellie, Jacoby and Dorothy and with those three, should she be able to dance well, I think Dorothy could take it.
I would have to agree with everyone when they say it’s a pretty accurate prediction. I would probably agree that Derek won’t ever win again either, but I don’t think that would exclude him from the finals. Or maybe it does… I can’t really decide.
This season is one of the more unpredictable of seasons too. I want Zendaya to be a little higher, but I see her being like Roshon more than Chelsea, like Court said.
I’m actually going to disagree with Dorothy’s placement. I don’t see her getting out early, but I don’t see her making the finals. I’m probably vastly underestimating her, but that’s my opinion. She really does look good for 50 something, that’s for sure. I dunno, she’s a wild card for me.
I agree with this top 6, and I think Ingo and Jacoby are in the right spot, I just dont know where I’d put the other 3. I can’t see Kellie at 2nd or 5th, Zendaya at 2nd or 5th Aly at 2nd or 5th or Dorothy not in the finals. So Im gonna put Dororthy at 2nd, Zendaya as 3rd, Kellie as 4th and Aly at 5th.
I see Dorothy a bit like Jennifer. Lots of potential and Dorothy was America’s sweetheart and her fan base is the show’s main viewers. I think Aly has a big fan base too, but wonder if she may suffer from gymnast backlash and Shawn was just so good on all stars. She will suffer in comparison. But on fanbase, I have Aly in the top 3.
I know this is random, I didn’t know were to ask does anyone know who Jimmy Kimmel has picked to win this season? or if he even made a pick yet?
Another great post, thank you! Well,because I am a Derek-fan-forever, I still hope for a Kellie/Derek win. Plus I love to listen to Kellie not understand what someone is saying to her and would really look forward to this every week. Its hilarious. Like when Derek told her her costumes would be encrusted (in sparkly stones), she said, “Crusty?!! I don’t wanna be crusty!!” She cracks me up! However, if Dorothy gets her confidence in gear, she might be a contender as well. Aly?….boring, to me. And Ingo & Kim might have a shot. I don’t know enough about Jacoby and Karina to make a prediction. I guess my top 3 would be: 1) Kellie/Derek; 2) Dorothy/Tristan; and 3) Ingo/Kim.
Thanks Courtney, I really enjoyed reading both parts, and agree with a lot of your rankings except, I don’t think Jacoby will win…he’s NFL, but unless you’re with one of the oldest franchises, like the Steelers, Packers, or the Cowboys, the fan base isn’t as big. Jason Taylor,Chad Johnson,and Kurt Warner come to mind. I think he’ll make it far into the season if he’s a good dancer, but I don’t see him winning even with a popular pro like Karina.
I think it will come down to Aly/Mark, and Kellie/Derek. Either one. I love Kellie, she sounds just like me. 🙂 She’ll probably get the Southern/Country music vote. And of course the Olympian has a big fan base, too. I’ll be very surprised if they aren’t first and second.
Val and Zendaya, I’m not sure about. I didn’t know who Zendaya was, but she seems to have quite a following. Question is, do they vote? Val has his own fanbase, especially after last year, but will his brother’s fans throw their votes to him now? What I’m getting from most of my fellow Maks fans, they’re either not watching at all, or not bothering to vote. I’m in the latter group, because I do want to see Dorothy and Tristan for as long as they’re on the show.
I know I’ve put a lot of emphasis on fan bases, but that’s they way it is. Good dancing takes a back seat to popularity.
Voting against anyone is a complete waste of time and energy, but I suppose there are some mean spirited people that haven’t anything better to do. Please do not let me ever become one of those. I wish all the couples good luck, and will be interested in how these predictions come out.
Great analysis! I’m not convinced Ingo and Kim will make Top6 and wouldn’t be surprised if Sean & Peta slip in to that spot. And I’ll swap Aly/Mark for Dorothy/Tristan. Dorothy doesn’t come off sounding very confident and I recall an interview (GMA or maybe The View) where she stated she was a singles skater because then no one new when she messed up the choreography, BUT I’m thinking that once it’s “show time” and the lights go down, that competitiveness kicks in for all it’s worth and pulls her through. That, or given we’re about the same age, I’m pulling for for the old broad (said with much respect).
Great job, Linde!! I actually could sing your words to the beat of that song-Very cool’
I was waiting for the second part and it was worth it, I just LOVED your predictions!!!! Even thinking you’re right about the top 2, especially, I’ll keep my fingers crossed (after voting, of course) to Aly and Mark, since I’m a huge gimnastics fan. And I’m agree with you when you said we won’t see Derek win another MBT, after last season it’s all we can believe.
I’m still frustrated that Shawn & Sr Masterpiece didn’t won, it wasn’t fair! Noone else (and everyone in the world knows this) could beat Shawn & Derek’s fanbase, but SOMEHOW it happened…
Sometimes the only true thing in a “reality show” is that it’s made by real people.
Hope the truth speaks for itself this time around and the REAL numbers show us the REAL winners. Good luck for them all!
Heidi, let me clarify. I will be voting for Kellie and Derek as long as they are on, no question. I want them to go as long as possible, and hope they can win, but I’m not sure Derek can win again, even though he should. He could win every season and I would be happy. If not them, the only other “team” I really like are Tristan and Dorothy. If not Kellie, first choice, then Dorothy. Really don’t want it to be Jacoby. I’m a 49er fan and the loss still hurts. Too soon to see my favorite football team and my favorite dancing team lose to a Raven.
Not trying to be a troll. I do still read the posts. Going to agree with some of you regarding Derek and the MBT.
I swore after last season that I was never going to watch this show again because of all the manipulation by TPTB. However, I have to say that I think this may be my all-time favorite cast.
I agree with a lot of Courtney’s analysis. However, I don’t think that Jacoby will win for the reasons that other posters have noted. First, he’s not from one of the football teams with a huge rabid fanbase, like the Packers, Cowboys or Steelers. The Ravens have to compete with the Eagles and the Redskins for fans, and Baltimore has already lost one football team to Indianapolis. Second, Jacoby is not 100% physically because of surgery. Third, I don’t think Karina’s fanbase is all that strong. Fourth, if an athlete doesn’t have a likeable personality, then he or she won’t do well, no matter how great he or she is as an athlete.
As for Zendaya, while I liked her dancing, I was somewhat turned off by her personality based on the one interview I saw of her. The other problem I have with her is that she seems to be the same or almost the same height as Val, a look that I personally don’t like on the dance floor.
I would love for Kelly and Derek to make it to the finale. I am in love with her lines, and she’s just the right height and size for Derek. Call me crazy, but I actually think that she could be the best partner Derek’s ever had.
Oh Dear Child, I forgive you cause you do not know what you have done…. Olympic medals, Super Bowl Trophies, are no match to the power of the Pickler! America fell in love with Kellie on season 5 of American Idol, and while she did not have the singing skills at age 19 to make it into the finals, she had quite a bit of potential. Fast forward 7 years and today you have quite an amazing package. What will happen when the 30 million viewers from AI5 rediscover their beloved Pickler and decide to “Pick Pickler” once again?
Still not convinced — go to YouTube and search on Kellie Pickler and Ellen… start viewing clips of all her interviews over the last 7 years and see if you don’t fall for this hilarious southern belle. As a note, do watch where she attacks Clint Eastwood and the one where she talks about fire ants.. Ellen just about falls off her chair during these pickler encounters…
Ray, I trust your tongue was firmly in your cheek as you made your comment because Miss Court has been analyzing this game for a long time and knows of what she speaks.
Really enjoyed your analysis Courtney. I really feel like Kellie is going to make it into the F3, and possibly Aly gets F4 though. For a lot of viewers I think it’s more than just the dancing, it’s the whole journey and if you have a great storyline along with great dancing (whether it’s an underdog storyline, overcoming huge obstacles storyline etc) it can really connect with the audience. All of us that are paying attention and watching rehearsal snippets are not going to be surprised when Kellie comes out and it really good, but I think the general audience will be. Here’s this country singer from AI that people don’t think is the smartest bulb… and WOW look at what a natural she turns out to be at dancing, something outside of her comfort zone! The audience eats up nice unexpected surprises like that. Plus she is so charming, sweet and funny, and has such great chemistry with Derek.
If the final 4 turns out to be Aly, Jacoby, Dorothy and Kellie – it’ll be Kellie up against two Olympians and a Football player so I can see people perceiving her as the underdog and the show pushing that storyline even if she’s with Derek. Mark might be the one to get more backlash at that point – his 3rd Olympian and his two wins are with them. Does Aly bring anything new to the audience in terms of storyline? People may think an Aly/Mark freestyle will be full of gymnastic tricks (not saying this is so, just saying what the perception might be) while no one can really predict what a Kellie/Derek one will look like. He’s never had anyone like her before, and we’ve never had a finale with anyone like her before (a singer that isn’t a ringer). I think the perception of fresh and new will win out, and Kellie gets there.
Whether they can win it all, I’m not sure but I wouldn’t rule it out. Derek’s wins might be far enough away now. I just think it was a lot stronger right after he won back to back, and there has been enough distance since then.
It’s funny, Aly reminds me of Bristol more than Shawn. Obviously not based on potential ability, but something about their demeanor and look. I felt strongly that way in the rehearsal video.
If they stay away from doing too many tricks, perhaps the gymnast thing won’t be SUCH a comparison in peoples’ minds. The show will play up the gymnast thing, so perhaps it will be inevitable. Their vibes are different to me, though. Maybe it’s the fact that Aly comes across as kind of an old soul to me, whereas Shawn seemed more innocent and a bit vulnerable.
I also agree with the person who said that Jacoby might have a bit of a polarizing personality, and that could hurt him.
I think that the top 5 will be Aly, Kellie, Dorthy, Zendaya, and either Jacoby or Ingo.
I would actually be surprised if Kellie didn’t make the top 3. She has a fun personality that I think vibes with what a DWTS audience tends to like, and she’s got Derek.
You forgot Lil’ Kim, Jenn. A singer who isn’t a ringer. Kellie is his third singer, and only one was a ringer.
You know what Ray? You think we’re wrong? Put your money where your mouth is and spend several hours voting every Monday night to make it a reality. Nothing would make me happier than to be wrong. So, get on it.
Yeah, unfortunately for Ray, I’m not picking up on any tongue-in-cheek sarcasm – instead I’m just getting an unnecessarily aggressive, batshit-crazy fan vibe. So let me be perfectly clear, Ray:
I’m not a “child”, and you can keep your condescending forgiveness, because you’re exactly the type of fan than gives Kellie fans a bad name – you can’t fathom anyone not sharing your over-the-moon love for her, so you keep trying to jam the same tired “go watch YouTube, go watch Ellen, she got far on Idol 7 years ago, pick Pickler!!!” bullsh*t down my throat. I’m sure Kellie is a lovely, albeit slightly dimwitted, human being – but I don’t think she’s gonna win DWTS, no matter how great she dances, and if you had taken the time to actually READ my post like a respectful visitor before launching into self-righteous soapbox speech about how I’m sooooo wrong about Kellie, you’d see that most of my reasoning for thinking she won’t win has less to do with her and more to do with Derek. So consider this your one & only warning – the next time you waltz in, act like an asshat, and more or less campaign for Kelly, you’re getting out on comment moderation. Got it?
I swear, some fans’ attempts at getting me to like someone do the exact opposite: I’m about thisclose to vowing never to vote for Kellie, just to spite those who keep trying to force her upon me. And I thought the Donnie Osmobd fans were bossy, yeesh…
And there goes vallygirl, she of the ever changing IP address and constant quest for attention.
You do realize that no one understands a word you’re saying, don’t you vallygirl?
vallygirl isn’t as stupid as she’s trying to appear. She be trolling. Let’s see if she makes it past moderation.
I really wish Derek could win this season and I think he will make the finals, but I have come to notice a pattern in the last seasons outcome. The pro first voted off in season 13 (Peta) won season 14, and the pro first voted off in season 14 (Tony) won season 15. So if this trend continues the winner should be Tristan, right? If Derek is not able to win, I would be pleased if Tristan did.
Two seasons (out of FIFTEEN) does NOT make a trend. It makes a coincidence. :::sigh::: Come on people. Even if Dorothy were to win, it would STILL mean nothing.
Comment #43 Courtney goes all Santana Lopez on Ray’s ass! lol
I think Kellie & Derek make the finals! I’m calling a Jacoby/Dorothy/Kellie finale. I think Jacoby will pull in the NFL vote…maybe. I’m a die-hard Steeler fan and the Ravens are our biggest rival.
I’ve seen people ( on the scrapbook message board I frequent) say they think Derek is cocky and don’t like him for that reason. Or he’s already won. But this show is supposed to be about the best celeb dancer I know people let their personal feelings about the pros color their opinion of the celebrity’s dancing ability. So unfortunately I think you’re probably right Courtney. But I think we’ll see them in the finals 😉
I agree alot with the rankings. I too see Jacoby and Karina walking away with the trophy and they are my couple I’m voting for hours on end. I however don’t think Zendays will make it quite that far, And I think Kellie may sneak into the finals, but likley around 3rd or 4th as well. My origianl picks were
Jacoby and Karina 1st, Ingo and Kym 2nd, and Kellie and Derek 3rd. But I agree with some peoples thoughts on Ingo, hopefully we’re wrong and he’ll go far.
Derek has only won 3 times, not 5, vallygal
Who I want to be in the final three? Jacoby and Karina, Dorothy and Tristan and Ingo and Kym.
I think Jacoby and Karina may make the final 3, but I’m doubtful they will win. I hope I’m wrong, though. I think people are over-estimating his fan base because he’s a football player. He’s the least known, by far, of all the football players ever to be on the show. I don’t think he has much of a personal fan base and I don’t think the Baltimore fans are that big relative to many other teams.
I agree that Ingo probably won’t make it to the finals. I hope he makes it further than 6th, but I won’t be shocked if he doesn’t.
I think Dorothy and Tristan may make it to the semifinals, but I’ll be (happily) surprised if they get to the finals.
The person I think is the most misplaced it Sean. I really, REALLY hope I’m wrong, but I think Sean and Peta are going to last WAY longer than they should because they will be pimped to high heaven by the show and judges because he’s ABC “family”.
I’m not a country music fan but I know many are. I think Kellie looks like she will be a great dancer. That and Derek will take them to at least a certain point. I think she may make it to the finals. I fear that I personally will find her personality grating by the end, she reminds me of Kirstie Alley in that they have big personalities most viewers seemed to love but that rubbed me the wrong way. Since I think she will go far I hope I don’t come to hate her the way I began to hate Alley.
Don’t play with the troll, kids. Thank you. 🙂
Awwww, Mom…it’s fun to play with the trolls. JK, PH 😉
(I had several of the little beadie-eyed, wild-haired critters when I was a kid. — am I showing my age?)
Okay, wanted to get my predictions in before the show starts tonight!
6- Sean & Peta
5- Dorothy & Tristan
4- Aly & Mark
3- Jacoby & Karina
2- Kellie & Derek
1- Zendaya & Val
Sorry, my bad 😀
1. Kelli and Derek
2. Jacoby and Karina
3. Mark and Ally
I think Kellie has come along way since 19 and her basic values regarding family and friends and loyalty plus her fun personality will sit well with the core audience. She seems to have a serious side as well as funny per some recent interviews. Not the dumb blonde anymore. Derek’s comment about the Rumba maybe being a good dance for her says she can bring the sensuality too. I think her fun personality will get ” too big” for some if she doesn’t balance it with her sincerity as Kirsty really did wear on me, and Carson Kressley REALLY wore on me. I think Ally will be precise but fall short of Shawn and Derek for personality and relatability. Mark will have some good routines. I think Dorothy will make a good run at it but I sense reserve and a little awkwardness. I think she will get the Gladyis Knight, grand dame that is decent and well respected but Tristan ‘s choreography even at its best, isn’t that great and I like him. I absolutely loved some if his comments about Nancy Grace- so dead on. Ge has sex apoeal on his part but so far I think we will see a lack in the chemistry with him and Dorothy. I see the what one poster said about Karina. I don’t think judges like her that well and her JR win was expected despite jR being good but not the best dancer. She cries and folds when the semi and finale roll around. Crying over the fall was so unprofessional with Apollo. She was the pro and I was disappointed with how she handled that. She didn’t cry over fall with Ralph but has to watch her emotions. She is a phenomenal dancer and IMO should have one with Mario L hands down. She is a very good choreographer but I for one am the target DWTS and don’t know Jacoby at all. I think his knee injury and surgery will place a toll on them around semi final time. I will have to see how that partnership unfolds.
Zendaya: Super RINGER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Greqat dancer but with a hefty professional advantage over the other competitors. Not a really even playing field is it?
Judgement day for Jacoby…
He failed bigtime. WTH was wrong with him. No need to see anymore of him this season. Yuck!
I was underwhelmed by Aly and Mark’s performance. Same with Jacoby! He’s got rhythm but his technique is bad. Kellie nailed it as did Zendsya. I think Kellie would’ve gotten scored higher if she’d danced later in the show. Wynonna did ok. Thought Andy Dick did better than expected. DL Hughley was a hot mess.
I wasn’t sure if I should feel bad for Cheryl or wonder what the heck she has been doing in rehearsal.
Sean and Peta have no chemistry.
I like Sharna. I really like Sharna and Andy.
I think Jacoby and the knee surgery will not mix well. Dancing and pain, not good bed fellows.
Please do not flame me but when they first came out I had to do a double take because I thought Aly was Bristol.
Wynonna is a goddess with potential.
So is Kellie (Tinker Bell).
Lisa and Gleb kind of made me uncomfortable in their interview with Brooke.
I like Zendaya until the judges started kissing her booty.
Ingo and Kym were good but unfoprtunately by the end of the show I had forgotten their routine.
The same for Victor unfortunately.
I so want to look as good as Dorothy when I am her age.
I mean.. what a night! 😀
Kellie and Derek’s performance reminded me of Maria’s (except Maria wasn’t as good a dancer as Kelly) but it was more because of the chroeography. I still think she rocked it!
Jacoby, I’m sad to say, as much fun and entertaining as that was, it wasn’t good… He looked like the Hunchback of Notre Dame the whole dance, why!? I hope he gets better.
Ingo was good. Though he deserved at least one 8 but thats just me..
Andy wowed me. I thought he did good for a first dance. Good for him!
D.L … no words. Just complete fatality. Poor Cheryl.
Dorothy was gorgeous.
and lastly… Zendaya. I mean.. wow. She was in compkete sync with Val during the whole routine. The lines.. the lifts.. everything was awesome! I though she should have gotten at least one 9 (specially after the judges’ comments; Len’s mostly..)
Everyone else I didn’t mention was just “meh”. Wasn’t surprised with their performances at all. I guess I could mention the fact that I so called “Live While We’re Young” by One Direction to be turned into a Cha-Cha on week 1.
I’m calling a Quickstep to “Little Talks” next week.
Cant wait!
Loved the show tonight! So happy to see my old DWTS back! 😉
I voted like crazy for Wynonna, who did a lot better than I expected. I was worried to not get one busy signal. What’s up with that? I thought she’d have a following like Kirstie.
Got a little teary at Dorothy’s sweet dance. Great choreography from Tristan.
Andy Dick was a pleasant surprise. But, Aly did disappoint. Maybe she was just very nervous? I worry for her.
I’m picking Kellie and Derek for at least the top 3.
The positive. The people I wanted to do well did pretty well. Ingo was much better than I was expecting, not incredible but good. Dorothy was good as well. Maybe a little safe, but good. Jacoby’s dance was very fun and entertaining given the short rehearsal time, Karina has a lot of work still to do with him, both his posture and feet. But at this stage being exciting and having people talking is good. If they don’t fix the technique further down the line it will be a problem. And of course she needs to make him shut his mouth!
I was expecting a lot more from Aly. She wasn’t bad, just failed expectations. Zendaya was exactly what I expected, like all the Disney kids she had a lot of impressive technique, the best of the night, but she wasn’t interesting to me. None of the Disney kids have ever interested in me, despite the fact they usually have talent. Not sure why, just the way it works out.
I expected Sean to be decent, he was worse than I expected, and I thought “good, he’s too bad for them to really pimp him much.” Wrong! Way overpraised and overscored. Which leads to the worst for me, that I can’t enjoy the show the way I used to. Most of the people, both the stars and new pros, presented themselves well on a personal level. There was no one I really disliked incredibly, which would normally be enough for me to be happy. But I just have no tolerance left for the show and it’s manipulations. I can’t enjoy the show the way I used to. Hope that changes as the season progresses.