Dancing with the Stars Season 16: Pre-Season Predictions – Eliminations

Yay I’m back!… Well kind of… ;-) I apologize for the delay but I had this post completed when the initial cast announcements happened and then… life got in the way? Well I don’t really have a good idea or reason for that, but what can I do? And when I was ready to post it was a week off from the “Sean Lowe” announcement and so I just added him to the mix and completely forgot about the post again… Yes shoot me. So now you get two posts from me today… the first would be the following distribution and the second being the actual Predictions for the first week of scores.

Taking the above into account, a part of me was really considering about sitting this season out, I mean I got burned out last season when TPTB really threw a lot of curve balls to my spreadsheets and predictions that it got to the point that I just kind of threw in the towel because of the ridicuolous-ness of it all. And when I heard wind of TPTB putting contemporary and jazz into the mix… well let’s just say that I was not happy at all.

But… it’s a new season, and after the cast announcement I realize that I am familiar with at least half of the cast and as thus I probably should follow along for the ride.

So this is what I’m going to do… There are going to be two tables (since the blog space is not wide enough to do what I REALLY want to do) the first will be the rankings broken down by the following categories:
- Professional Partner
- Occupation
- Age Group

The second table will then reflect how each of the celebrities are grouped in those categories.

Now… I really had to think long and hard about this one… at the moment I decided NOT to add in the scores and data from the All-Star Season (Season 15). Why? Mainly because I consider that data to be skewed in a lot of ways. You have old partnerships, new partnerships, strange dances, all the celebrities knew what they were getting into which changes what could happen through the season… There were just way too many variables than a “normal” season for me to even consider using the data.

However, if the demand to see how the below rankings would change with the inclusion of the All Star Season, I’ll consider it…. time-permitting of course.

CELEBRITY
PROFESSIONAL
OCCUPATION
AGE GROUP
FINAL RANKING
Aly Raisman
3
2
1
1
Jacoby Jones
5
1
3
2
Kellie Pickler
1
6
3
3
Zendaya
12
4
1
4
Ingo Rademacher
4
5
7
5
Dorothy Hamill
6
2
11
6
Sean Lowe
7
9
3
7
Victor Ortiz
9
8
3
8
Wynonna Judd
8
6
7
9
D L Hughley
2
11
7
10
Andy Dick
9
11
7
11
Lisa Vanderpump
11
9
11
12

Any surprises? Confusion? Well… let’s a look at how I am grouping them this season… then I’ll explain a couple of things.

CELEBRITY
PROFESSIONAL
OCCUPATION
AGE GROUP
FINAL RANKING
Aly Raisman
Mark Ballas
Olympian
Teens
1
Jacoby Jones
Karina Smirnoff
NFL
20s
2
Kellie Pickler
Derek Hough
Singer
20s
3
Zendaya
Valentin Chmerkovskiy
Disney
Teens
4
Ingo Rademacher
Kym Johnson
Soap Opera Star
40s
5
Dorothy Hamill
Tristan MacManus
Olympian
50s
6
Sean Lowe
Peta Murgatroyd
Reality TV Star
20s
7
Victor Ortiz
Lindsay Arnold
Athlete
20s
8
Wynonna Judd
Tony Dovolani
Singer
40s
9
D L Hughley
Cheryl Burke
Comedian
40s
10
Andy Dick
Sharna Burgess
Comedian
40s
11
Lisa Vanderpump
Gleb Savchenko
Reality TV Star
50s
12

Now… the “Occupations” are largely dependent on what each celebrity is most known for. Luckily for us, the majority of the celebrities are fairly cut and dry. Dorothy Hamill and Aly Raisman I consider them “Olympians” because they both have medaled despite being in differing athletic focus.

Victor Ortiz… as with all other “Boxers“, I have grouped into “Athletes” since he hasn’t medaled in the Olympics… yet ;-)

Wynonna Judd and Kellie Pickler although are both “Country Singers” were clumped in the “Singers” category, even though Kellie got her start on American Idol and as thus could have qualified for the “Reality TV Star” grouping, I think she has made enough of a name of herself that she graduated into “Singer”.

Zendaya though technically an “Actress” is on a series on the Disney channel and is as thus automatically defined by the “Disney” tag.

One of the major issues I was having though was the number of new professional dancers (Gleb, Lindsay, Sharna) and as thus there is absolutely no data on them. How did I get around this? I did something different and decided to take the average male professional dancer ranking in their first season and the same for female but only with the traits that match the current dancer. Ugh… I didn’t realize just how much data I had til I started looking.

So here you go, a double treat for today.