DWTS Season 16, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, I have to say – I could rant on and on about the break in hold and the lift that Mark did, but why bother? They also missed a couple steps in that part that was in the front left corner by the judges – well, Aly did and it was kinda hidden behind Mark.  This is one of the crappy things about this show – it ain’t fair. Don’t get me wrong – if Mark wants to break the rules in the name of good choreo I say go for it, dude, show us what ya got (just don’t bitch if they ever do call you on it). I didn’t mind and the dance was pretty good, although sans “wow” factor. But dang, the judges don’t call it and THEN have the nerve to caution Gleb???  Tony and Wynonna ride in on scooters (I want one) and Len doesn’t say a word??  What the hell… anyway, you get my drift.  It’s enough to make me wonder if she isn’t getting the votes. I’m wanting to see a lot more out of the box choreography, with cool staging – but is it too much to ask that the judges ATTEMPT to be even handed??

I sure do wish that I didn’t see Jacoby as a sure thing at this point. Don’t get me wrong – I find him very amusing. Loved the whole bit with the good posture for Len followed by slouching. But he can’t touch Zendaya or Kellie…or even Aly…in terms of dancing. Hell, I like ANDY better than him. I think Andy knocked it out of the park last night. Ah well, what ya gonna do?? Maybe voters will surprise me and give it to Zendaya or Kellie – either one is more deserving. And Aly certainly has room to grow. Then again, so does Jacoby and he is kinda funny. :-)  We have a ways to go before we worry about the finale, in any case.

But enough about that, how do the scores look??

Week 2 Scores

 

Well, D.L.’s situation did improve a bit, thanks to the overall high number of total points handed out, but he still has a hard row to hoe…did I just mix a metaphor or just botch it altogether?? I’m not originally from the south, you understand. Oh…whatever. Last week D.L. needed 22k to get past Andy, this week he only needs 17k to get past either Lisa, Wynonna, Dorothy or Victor. Will this happen?? I tend to doubt it. They gave him the worst possible package, but they also put him at the end of the show. The question is whether the audience as a whole believes him or feels sorry for him. Let’s break it down – in order for D.L. to survive, he needs ONE of the following things to happen:

–        D.L. needs to get 17,000 more votes per million votes cast then EITHER Wynonna, Lisa, Dorothy or Victor; OR

–        D.L. needs to get 19,050 more votes per million votes cast than Andy; OR

–        D.L. needs to get 23,300 more votes per million votes cast than Sean; OR

–        D.L. needs to get 25,400 more votes per million votes cast than Ingo; OR

–        D.L. needs to get 31,800 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby; OR

–        D.L. needs to get 36,000 more votes per million votes cast than Aly; OR

–        D.L. needs to get 40,200 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie; OR

–        D.L. needs to get 46,600 more votes per million votes cast than Zendaya

I don’t really think I see any of this happening, but if he does manage to survive, I’m thinking it will be at either Lisa or Victor’s expense, mainly because I never remember either of them.  For Lisa to be safe (and just replace her name with Victor, Wy or Dorothy – same thing for them to be safe), she needs one of the following things to happen:

–        Lisa (or Victor or Dorothy or Wy) needs D.L. to NOT get 17k more votes per million votes cast than she gets, OR;

–        Lisa needs ONE more vote per million votes cast than either Wy, Dorothy or Victor, OR;

–        Lisa needs to get 2,150 more votes per million votes cast than Andy, OR;

–        Lisa needs to get 6,400 more votes per million votes cast than Sean, OR;

–        Lisa needs to get 8,500 more votes per million votes cast than Ingo, OR;

–        Lisa needs to get 14,800 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby, OR;

–        Lisa needs to get 19,100 more votes per million votes cast than Alexandra, OR;

–        Lisa needs to get 23,300 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie, OR;

–        Lisa needs to get 29,600 more votes per million votes cast than Zendaya

Keeping in mind that I don’t know Lisa at all…or Victor for that matter…I think there is a chance that she could be in trouble. Same for Victor. Do they have fanbases? And how do those fanbases compare to D.L.’s and the demo of the DWTS viewing audience?? D.L. was on a mainstream TV show in his day.  If it comes down to Lisa and Victor, well, each only needs ONE vote more than the other and that person stays. No clue which person that might be, but I’m leaning towards Victor.

How’s Andy doing?? He needs ONE of the following things to happen in order to be safe for another week:

–          Andy needs D.L. to NOT get 19,050 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;

–          Andy needs one of the Wynonna, Victor, Dorothy and Lisa cabal to NOT get 2,150 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;

–          Andy needs to get4,250 more votes per million votes cast than Sean, OR;

–          Andy needs to get 6,400 more votes per million votes cast than Ingo, OR;

–          Andy needs to get 12,700 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby, OR;

–          Andy needs to get 17,000 more votes per million votes cast than Aly, OR;

–          Andy needs to get 21,200 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie, OR;

–          Andy needs to get 27,500 more votes per million votes cast than Zendaya.

Based on these numbers, I’m thinking Andy is safe. I don’t think he’s close to touching Jacoby, Aly, Kellie or Zendaya, but I think he could be giving the rest of them a run for the money. I don’t think there is any way that D.L. is getting those votes and I question whether the cabal can muster the 2k they need to pass him. Doesn’t matter – you only need to beat one person to be safe. :-)

It will be very interesting to see how they break it down tonight and which game they are going with this season. Pimp Alert: I’m working on a big post about Jeopardy and if it really means anything or not. So far, the results are somewhat interesting. Look for that in the future. Anyway, the show tonight could reveal who needs help and who is cannon fodder.

My guess is that they call Kellie and Andy safe right off the bat. That will work up Zendaya’s fanbase and get the audience in general nervous.  Next will be Jacoby and Zendaya. After that, who knows? I generally suck at predicting how they’re going to call people safe. I have a somewhat better track record at guessing who’s going home. This week, I think it’s no contest and D.L. is going home. That’s a big deficit. If D.L. managed to engender sympathy from the audience and got some votes, I’m afraid it will be Lisa, with Victor an outside shot.  I wish it was Sean, but we can’t have everything. ;-)