DWTS Season 16, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, okay, that wasn’t as horrendously awful as I expected it to be, although still pretty bad. I thought at first the judges were being pretty darn lenient, but then I realized they were trying very hard to make sure that either DL or Wynonna went home. Everyone else pretty much got a free pass for the week.  Actually thought Zendaya struggled a LOT with the Waltz, but then Kellie had a bit of trouble with her Jive as well – although it did deserve the top spot on the leader board. Jacoby, on the other hand, did a great job with his rumba – he should probably be tied with Kellie.

Then again, it doesn’t probably matter with Wynonna only having a 15. It’s also not going to matter who the Prom Queen is, unless it ends up being Wynonna.

So, let’s look at our scores and percentages:

DBTN week 3

 

Well, this time, DL and Wynonna are the bottom of the leader board and this is some new territory for us. Last week, DL was saved and Lisa and Victor were in the bottom two. The judges did some ranking and may have saved those two – but then again, maybe not.   I would bet that DL and Wynonna have fanbases that beat Victor and Lisa.

But that’s jumping ahead. Wynonna is at the bottom so she has to do the most work. What does she need in order to be safe?? She needs ONE of the following things to occur:

-        Wynonna needs to get 4,350 more votes per million votes cast than DL, OR;

-        Wynonna needs to get 13,000 more votes per million votes cast than Andy, OR;

-        Wynonna needs to get 26,000 more votes per million votes cast than ONE of Lisa, Sean or Ingo, OR;

-        Wynonna needs to get 34,700 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Aly or Victor, OR;

-        Wynonna needs to get 39,000 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Zendaya or Jacoby, OR;

-        Wynonna needs to get 43,300 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie.

If one of those things happen, Wynonna is safe and someone else will go home. I have NO feel for Wynonna’s fanbase, but I suspect that she’s doing better than DL or Victor, at the very least. Unfortunately for her, probably not enough better than Victor, based on last night’s scores.

Speaking of DL, he’s been in worse shape. For him to be safe tomorrow night, ONE of the following things has to happen:

-        DL needs Wynonna to NOT get 4,350 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;

-        DL needs 8,700 more votes per million votes cast than Andy, OR;

-        DL needs 21,700 more votes per million votes cast than ONE of Lisa, Sean or Ingo, OR;

-        DL needs 30,310 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Victor or Aly, OR;

-        DL needs 34,700 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Zendaya or Jacoby, OR;

-        DL needs 39,000 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie.

Last week, DL only need 17k to beat either Lisa or Victor – and he clearly did since he was called safe and they were in the bottom two. This week, however, he has to get more than 21k to beat Lisa and more than 30k to beat Victor. Frankly, I think Victor has enough cushion this time. But Lisa could be in some trouble. Again, tomorrow could be revealing in terms of fanbase, provided that they reveal a real bottom two.

But that brings us up to Andy. What does Andy need to have happen in order for him to be safe?? He needs ONE of the following things to happen:

-        Andy needs for DL to NOT get 8,700 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;

-        Andy needs for Wynonna to NOT get 13,000 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;

-        Andy needs 13,000 more votes per million votes cast than ONE of Lisa, Sean or Ingo, OR;

-        Andy needs 21,700 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Victor or Aly, OR;

-        Andy needs 26,000 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Zendaya or Jacoby, OR;

-        Andy needs 30,310 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie.

I’m hoping and I’m thinking that Wynonna and DL aren’t getting the votes to beat Andy – but I could be wrong. If they ARE getting the votes, I still think that Andy is beating Lisa. At least, I hope so.

Lisa, Sean and Ingo, being tied, all need the same things in order to be safe, but I’m going to frame it around Lisa because she was in the bottom two last week. If you want to see how safe either Sean or Ingo are, just replace Lisa’s name with theirs, below. What does Lisa need to be safe? She needs one of the following things to happen:

-        Lisa needs for Wynonna to NOT get 26,000 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;

-        Lisa needs for DL to NOT get 21,700 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;

-        Lisa needs for Andy to NOT get 13,000 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR:

-        Lisa needs ONE more vote per million votes cast than either Sean or Ingo, OR;

-        Lisa needs 8,700 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Victor or Aly, OR;

-        Lisa needs 13,000 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Zendaya or Jacoby, OR;

-        Lisa needs 17,350 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie.

Well, this is a pretty tough one to call. Those look like pretty big numbers for Lisa to get sent home by either Wynonna, DL or Andy. But she was in the Bottom two last week when DL needed more than 16k votes to be safe.

This is so tough I’m going to have to talk (type) it through.  So, Wynonna is at the bottom but she only needs 4,350 to beat DL. Is that doable?? I think it is, generally because DL is not that likeable. HOWEVER, the judges were mean to him again last night and that is more powerful than Cheryl’s fanbase. Mean judges can make  him a bit of a sympathetic character two weeks in a row, whereas Wynonna may not be yet. And Cheryl is certainly more popular than Tony, especially now that he has a mirrorball – he’s lost his sympathy angle.  So, let’s say that Wynonna can’t beat DL. I also don’t think she can beat Andy. That leaves Lisa – she needs to get 26k votes to beat Lisa. This is a pretty high number, but it’s certainly been done before.  Will it be done tonight? I’m leaning towards no. Right now, I’m leaning toward Wynonna beating out DL though.

If Wynonna is beating out DL, he needs 8,700 more votes than Andy and 21k more than Lisa. I don’t think he’s beating Andy – too many people are finding him charming and likeable. That leaves Lisa in the hot seat. However, this is where it gets tricky. It’s entirely possible that DL is getting the votes to beat Lisa. IF Wynonna and Andy are also beating her, she’s not necessarily out…she only needs 8,700 more votes to beat Victor. IF Lisa beats out Victor, then it falls back to Wynonna.  Wynonna would have to get close to 35k votes to beat Victor – I have a hard time believing that. If she doesn’t, and she’s not beating DL or Andy, she goes home. If Lisa beats out Victor, and Wynonna is beating out DL but not Victor, then DL goes home.

You see why this can make your brain hurt if you think about it too much? :-)

So, the question is – is Wynonna beating Lisa? I tend to doubt that she covers that spread. Is Wynonna beating DL? Possibly. Is Wynonna beating Andy? I don’t think so.  So….I think it’s down to Wynonna and DL, with Andy and Lisa safe. Victor too.  I could certainly be wrong.

I think it’s going to come down to either Wynonna and DL OR Wynonna and Lisa in the bottom two. I think in the first scenario, DL might go home. In the second scenario, I think Wynonna goes home.

So, my first choice for elimination is Wynonna. My second choice is….argh…DL or Lisa.  It ought to be interesting to see, because I don’t have enough of an idea about how the voting’s going to have a solid idea.