DWTS Season 16, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers
Well, okay, that wasn’t as horrendously awful as I expected it to be, although still pretty bad. I thought at first the judges were being pretty darn lenient, but then I realized they were trying very hard to make sure that either DL or Wynonna went home. Everyone else pretty much got a free pass for the week. Actually thought Zendaya struggled a LOT with the Waltz, but then Kellie had a bit of trouble with her Jive as well – although it did deserve the top spot on the leader board. Jacoby, on the other hand, did a great job with his rumba – he should probably be tied with Kellie.
Then again, it doesn’t probably matter with Wynonna only having a 15. It’s also not going to matter who the Prom Queen is, unless it ends up being Wynonna.
So, let’s look at our scores and percentages:
Well, this time, DL and Wynonna are the bottom of the leader board and this is some new territory for us. Last week, DL was saved and Lisa and Victor were in the bottom two. The judges did some ranking and may have saved those two – but then again, maybe not. I would bet that DL and Wynonna have fanbases that beat Victor and Lisa.
But that’s jumping ahead. Wynonna is at the bottom so she has to do the most work. What does she need in order to be safe?? She needs ONE of the following things to occur:
– Wynonna needs to get 4,350 more votes per million votes cast than DL, OR;
– Wynonna needs to get 13,000 more votes per million votes cast than Andy, OR;
– Wynonna needs to get 26,000 more votes per million votes cast than ONE of Lisa, Sean or Ingo, OR;
– Wynonna needs to get 34,700 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Aly or Victor, OR;
– Wynonna needs to get 39,000 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Zendaya or Jacoby, OR;
– Wynonna needs to get 43,300 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie.
If one of those things happen, Wynonna is safe and someone else will go home. I have NO feel for Wynonna’s fanbase, but I suspect that she’s doing better than DL or Victor, at the very least. Unfortunately for her, probably not enough better than Victor, based on last night’s scores.
Speaking of DL, he’s been in worse shape. For him to be safe tomorrow night, ONE of the following things has to happen:
– DL needs Wynonna to NOT get 4,350 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;
– DL needs 8,700 more votes per million votes cast than Andy, OR;
– DL needs 21,700 more votes per million votes cast than ONE of Lisa, Sean or Ingo, OR;
– DL needs 30,310 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Victor or Aly, OR;
– DL needs 34,700 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Zendaya or Jacoby, OR;
– DL needs 39,000 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie.
Last week, DL only need 17k to beat either Lisa or Victor – and he clearly did since he was called safe and they were in the bottom two. This week, however, he has to get more than 21k to beat Lisa and more than 30k to beat Victor. Frankly, I think Victor has enough cushion this time. But Lisa could be in some trouble. Again, tomorrow could be revealing in terms of fanbase, provided that they reveal a real bottom two.
But that brings us up to Andy. What does Andy need to have happen in order for him to be safe?? He needs ONE of the following things to happen:
– Andy needs for DL to NOT get 8,700 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;
– Andy needs for Wynonna to NOT get 13,000 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;
– Andy needs 13,000 more votes per million votes cast than ONE of Lisa, Sean or Ingo, OR;
– Andy needs 21,700 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Victor or Aly, OR;
– Andy needs 26,000 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Zendaya or Jacoby, OR;
– Andy needs 30,310 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie.
I’m hoping and I’m thinking that Wynonna and DL aren’t getting the votes to beat Andy – but I could be wrong. If they ARE getting the votes, I still think that Andy is beating Lisa. At least, I hope so.
Lisa, Sean and Ingo, being tied, all need the same things in order to be safe, but I’m going to frame it around Lisa because she was in the bottom two last week. If you want to see how safe either Sean or Ingo are, just replace Lisa’s name with theirs, below. What does Lisa need to be safe? She needs one of the following things to happen:
– Lisa needs for Wynonna to NOT get 26,000 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
– Lisa needs for DL to NOT get 21,700 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
– Lisa needs for Andy to NOT get 13,000 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR:
– Lisa needs ONE more vote per million votes cast than either Sean or Ingo, OR;
– Lisa needs 8,700 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Victor or Aly, OR;
– Lisa needs 13,000 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Zendaya or Jacoby, OR;
– Lisa needs 17,350 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie.
Well, this is a pretty tough one to call. Those look like pretty big numbers for Lisa to get sent home by either Wynonna, DL or Andy. But she was in the Bottom two last week when DL needed more than 16k votes to be safe.
This is so tough I’m going to have to talk (type) it through. So, Wynonna is at the bottom but she only needs 4,350 to beat DL. Is that doable?? I think it is, generally because DL is not that likeable. HOWEVER, the judges were mean to him again last night and that is more powerful than Cheryl’s fanbase. Mean judges can make him a bit of a sympathetic character two weeks in a row, whereas Wynonna may not be yet. And Cheryl is certainly more popular than Tony, especially now that he has a mirrorball – he’s lost his sympathy angle. So, let’s say that Wynonna can’t beat DL. I also don’t think she can beat Andy. That leaves Lisa – she needs to get 26k votes to beat Lisa. This is a pretty high number, but it’s certainly been done before. Will it be done tonight? I’m leaning towards no. Right now, I’m leaning toward Wynonna beating out DL though.
If Wynonna is beating out DL, he needs 8,700 more votes than Andy and 21k more than Lisa. I don’t think he’s beating Andy – too many people are finding him charming and likeable. That leaves Lisa in the hot seat. However, this is where it gets tricky. It’s entirely possible that DL is getting the votes to beat Lisa. IF Wynonna and Andy are also beating her, she’s not necessarily out…she only needs 8,700 more votes to beat Victor. IF Lisa beats out Victor, then it falls back to Wynonna. Wynonna would have to get close to 35k votes to beat Victor – I have a hard time believing that. If she doesn’t, and she’s not beating DL or Andy, she goes home. If Lisa beats out Victor, and Wynonna is beating out DL but not Victor, then DL goes home.
You see why this can make your brain hurt if you think about it too much? 🙂
So, the question is – is Wynonna beating Lisa? I tend to doubt that she covers that spread. Is Wynonna beating DL? Possibly. Is Wynonna beating Andy? I don’t think so. So….I think it’s down to Wynonna and DL, with Andy and Lisa safe. Victor too. I could certainly be wrong.
I think it’s going to come down to either Wynonna and DL OR Wynonna and Lisa in the bottom two. I think in the first scenario, DL might go home. In the second scenario, I think Wynonna goes home.
So, my first choice for elimination is Wynonna. My second choice is….argh…DL or Lisa. It ought to be interesting to see, because I don’t have enough of an idea about how the voting’s going to have a solid idea.
Care to weigh in on how the 2 points from winning prom king or queen might help? 😀
I have this sinking feeling that we will be seeing DL & wynonna next week (I hope im wrong)
with that said,
I still think Victor is getting the least amount of votes, but his points cushion prob saves him. i think its going to be between Andy, Lisa, and Sean
I definitely think that D.L. and Wynnona will be in the bottom two tonight. Either one of them has a big possibility of going home, but in the end, I think it will be D.L. who will be eliminated.
My (admittedly rough) math says that if (and I don’t think this will happen) Lisa wins prom queen, it adds about another 6K votes per million to the spread. Since I’m with Court, and figure it’ll be Zendaya & Ingo, I think it’ll have the effect of insulating Ingo & Kym, and not s lot else. But that’s JMO.
Wynonna & D.L. both make me “cringe”, so one of them can go home this week, and the other one next week.
i THINK IT WILL BE EITHER D.L OR LISA, WITH POSSIBLY WYNONNA GOING.
TIRED OF THESE THEME WEEKS ALREADY!
DL and Wynonna are safe! The producers are rigging that show! I look for sweet Victor too leave!
The only thing in the past the two points were really good for was to keep a celebrity around a bit longer, much like KA and the now infamous smack Maks in the butt a few times dance move.
Seeing as they threw the choice to the fans with Twitter I’m not sure how it will play or help out. I’m a bit lost with the Twitter thing. Unless they were trying to give Sean a boost and the fans didn’t show up like they thought they would.
I wonder if Ingo might be at risk? Don’t we often see that being in the bottom 2 temporarily protects those people the next week? I know I voted a lot for Victor because I’d like to see him get a little more time and wonder if a lot people did the same for him and for Lisa. And I wonder if DL gets lots of votes as PH said, backlash for judge meanness, and if Wy and Sean have fan base and if Andy’s attracted a lot of supporters. I hope it’s DL as I don’t enjoy watching him dance at all, or S and P because they kind of creep me out.
I seriously don’t even have a clue who will be going. Other than the 4 who I really think can’t be touched too much, Zendaya, Kellie, Jacoby and Aly, it’s really all up in the air for me. Hopefully as weeks go on we’ll see more with who’s in the bottom, ect.
I think my prediction for the night is D.L. But who really knows haha.
I just took a peek at hashtag.org. It could be Jacoby as prom king….
LOL Heidi to your brain hurting. Yes, I can definitely understand that. It’s confusing thinking about it.
Anyway, I think D.L. and Wynonna will be in the bottom two and D.L. is hopefully going home. I’m going out on a limb too and say Sean isn’t going to cut it either. When I was at work discussing this with my boss this morning, we were talking how Sean couldn’t make an “M” for YMCA and how Peta made her “M” look like his to make it look like he doesn’t have arm issues. lol Anyway, it wouldn’t bother me to see any of these three go home.
Fantastic numbers post!! I loved it once again!!!x
I’m abysmal at figuring out who goes home. So I’ll just say I *hope* it’s DL, with Wynonna as my second choice. Despite the logic of PH’s numbers, I’m irrationally afraid it could be Victor.
The judges bent over backwards to protect him last night, but I just don’t think his boxing fans give a rip about voting for him, and I’m not sure he and Lindsay have made enough of an impression on core viewers. Worse yet, the viewers could feel he’s high enough up on the leaderboard to be safe. We all know how that backfires.
Victor isn’t all that as a dancer, but he’s a sweet, hard working guy. So I’d much rather keep him around for a few more weeks.
Between Wynonna, Victor, Lisa, and DL, I’m indifferent to the order in which they go home, but happy that there are four “worst” dancers to send home while the better dancers hone their craft. I hope there aren’t any unfortunate surprises, but I can’t believe that a better dancer will be sacrificed to keep any of them.
I hope Andy picks up speed. He’s a good entertainer and he’s so sad that I wish him well. I’m not so dazzled by Jacoby as others here, but there usually is an overrated football player in the finals. Zendaya and Kellie are the real contenders.
I’m no numbers person, but after seeing that D.L. wasn’t in the bottom two last week and seeing him atleast trying harder appears to have put him in a better light. Plus, though I am not a fan of Cheryl, I am finding her more tolerable this season than in the last few. But personally, I think it’s D.L’s humor that also is helping me be ok with them sticking around for now. Wynonna is IMO THE worst dancer there currently! She has a great message about remembering to take care of yourself and have fun amid life’s struggles, but for me that is not enough for me to enjoy having her stick around. Her fans however, don’t care how horrible she dances, so I can’t see her leaving. Victor I think is the most disposable one at this point. I think he doesn’t have the fans, he’s not very charismatic to watch and he doesn’t really have a meaningful message or purpose like Wynonna or Andy that tug at the heartstrings even if they aren’t the best dancers. Plus, Victor has a new pro partner who hasn’t many fans herself, unlike D.L and Wynonna who have pros who help their cause, not hurt it.
I think they will call Andy safe early tonight. At least I hope so, after last week results, I think he needs an early result.
Hopefully DL will leave tonight and take his lackluster pro Cheryl with him. If not him, I am afraid it will be Lisa.
And to the producers – Could we please have next weeks show free of the words *twitter, tweet, and hastag*.
I would be happy if DL, Sean or Wynnona leave – the order I want them to leave shifts around a bit, but any of the three would be good. I’m hoping both Victor and Lisa stick around a little longer – Lisa mostly for her sense of humor and Victor because I think he can improve (and he’s so sweet) – but I’m enjoying both of them more than DL, Wy, or Sean, so I wouldn’t mind if they leave later.
Ugh. The two points – when given to Zendaya AND Jacoby – mean that Wynonna needs 100 fewer votes to get past DL. It’s between 100 and 200 votes for all the people above her. It would be that way regardless of who gets the 2 points UNLESS she’s the one that gets the 2 points. That’s the quick and dirty.
I’ll consult my tarot cards and predict DL goes home tonight but I don’t have compete confidence in that pick. I seem to remember the middle of the pack being more In danger often times
@#10 Kaitlyn
“I seriously don’t have a clue who will be going.” You have hit the nail on the head. It is possible that the four you mentioned (Kellie, Aly, Jacoby, and Zendaya) together have fan bases that dwarf the other seven combined, making it possible for anything to happen. And that could lead to some weird results.
I tend to base my projections on what I think is deserved by the dancing, but if someone is voting for another reason, it’s all up in the air.
@Lee, I’d like to base my projections on the dancing as well, but I decided long ago that the majority of voters are voting for other reasons. Dancing could be as low as 3rd or 4th on their decision tree.
I really hope Wy isn’t going tonight. After reading her tweets, I can tell she’s preparing herself for the end of her dwts days. I even got a little choked up reading them. She’s kind of like the big, cool sister you always wanted but with a lot of wounds you want to bandage for her. I think if she got to stay one more week and was saved tonight, that would mean the world to her, and me. 🙁
DL, Wynona or Sean should make up the bottom two. Anything else would just be wrong. But it’s happened before and likely to happen again. I’m so hoping it’s DL. I don’t like his attitude or the things that come out of his mouth. Just be quiet. Of the three, I would hope Wynona stays. With DL or Sean leaving, they take Cheryl or Peta with them and right now, that’s a huge plus.
And yet DL and Wynonna both claimed a dance spot in the 2nd half of the show. The producers knowing full well how awful they would be. Go figure.
And Sean for that matter. I just don’t get it.
Sandy, Remember Conrad Green thinks we want to see bad dancing as much as we want to see good dancing.
I think Mr. Green likes to see that the judges just don’t have dancers to praise, but also dancers to ridicule. Now D.L. gives them the chance to do that, and so does Wynonna. I’m not a fan of either, but I think both are smart enough to know their days are coming to a end sooner rather than later. If they are fine with it, everyone else should be cause another week or even another month would not make any difference. I do think Lisa has the potential to become like Kelly Osbourne and really come into her own if she gets to stay. I think Victor can also improve, but he and Lindsay are not nearly as entertaining as Lisa and Gleb, so I doubt they will be getting more votes.
Wynonna needs to go home first. She truly cannot dance and is as stiff as a board. Obviously, DL cannot dance, even though he is trying; however, his humor will probably keep him around another week. Next, poor “nice-guy” Sean can’t dance either; but, due to his ABC Bachelor status, will probably hang around for a while.
Andy is very entertaining and actually puts on a much better show than Sean. They need to keep Andy around for the weekly dose of tears and drama.
Kellie, Zendaya and Jacoby are “hands-down” the best dancers and I’m pretty sure that one of these three will win the mirror ball trophy.
I cannot believe the “get-ups’ (refuse to call them costumes they are so bad) that Tony is putting Wy in!! Does he honestly think they are flattering in any way???? Between that and her dancing I am so embarrassed for her that I hope she goes home tonight. At least Cheryl doesn’t dress DL like a clown, although if he sticks around much longer she might have him in the underwear she hawking! 😉
You said it Meggie. Tony is a total fail as a costume designer. I’ll never forget the bedazzled industrial grade trawling net he put poor Martina Navratilova in a few seasons ago. But even that looked good compared to the choices he’s made for Wynonna.
Blonde, I find Lisa and Gleb entertaining too and want them to hang around, but I wonder if their humor and flirting will work on the DWTS demo. They ought to spend a tad mroe time on form and technique, and Gleb needs to simplify his choreography. He’s throwing the kitchen sink into their routines, and it’s too much for Lisa to pull off, hence the stumbling and fumbling. He seems to want to be known as the flirty one, so you’d think he would understand the KISS principle 😉
Magnolia, good to see you again!!! 😉
Megs and Cids, +1 on Tony’s choices for costumes. *cringe city
Tony really should seek Val’s input on how to design a flattering costume for your partner’s body type, age, etc. I definately agree that Gleb is going all out to “make a name for himself” and I hate to say it but he appears to have taken more than A PAGE out of Maks’ book! I don’t think it’s hurting him any, but in the end I’m not sure it’s going to help him either as I do see Maks returning next season, and I think if Gleb is too “Mak-ish” he probably won’t be invited back with Maks!
Who is Bruno dancing with tonight? Who did he say he wishes he was out there with? I hope it’s not YMCA.
Yeah, pretty sure the encore dance is going to be YMCA and Bruno is going to join in.
That makes the most sense song wise, just I thought S and P were a mess and didn’t want to see them dance again. But it should be cool to see Bruno dance.
I believe that CAI said that the only thing missing from that dance was Bruno…sigh… I guess I should just try to enjoy the train wreck, but I was *really* hoping to see Kellie and Derek’s jive again.
Good advice to just enjoy it for what it is. Wonder what Bruno will be dressed like.
Probably the cowboy with questionable chaps!
Eww Gross.
@Ashley L –
You put everything into words that I’m thinking about Wynonna. I think that’s a common feeling among her fans, from reading their tweets to her. They certainly worked their fingers off, but are there enough of them? I doubt it… but I’m sure she’s been touched by how hard they tried.
Well, Sandy, you know Bruno!
These results have left me speechless.
I’m worried about Andy – part of me says he *has* to be safe – and then there’s the part that’s really scared.
I wonder if we’ll have a bottom two, or it’s just a random “in jeopardy” night.
Argh! Talk about a nail-biter!
Yes, there was a bottom 2 tonight.
Well now we know who is getting the votes and who is not.
Sandy, take heart. Last week Victor and Lisa were the bottom two and this week the judges helped the with some score padding and they most likely got a boost in the voting department from scared fans. The same should happen with Andy next week. Hopefully he’ll get a good dance style and dance well on Monday. Didn’t I hear it was “Best Year” theme week too? I’m sure he’ll have a really relatable story to tell. Combine that with this week’s “bottom two” scare to get fans voting for him again, and all will be well.
@Cidra & Sandy
I believe Andy is dedicating his dance next week to his 15 year-old daughter.
First off, let me say, that Andy and Sharna just bring Joy to the dancefloor.
@Cher – Yes, I heard that, and Sharna said it will be ah-mazing. And I think by what we have seen so far from Sharna, it probably will be a crowd favorite. 🙂
And by the looks of things tonight, If Andy wants to stay on the dancefloor at bit longer, then he needs the support of his fans to make that happen.
Me personally, I couldn’t fathom the idea of DL and Cheryl possibly outlasting Andy.
[…] Heidi: Said Wynonna was going home, if not her then DL or maybe Lisa. […]