DWTS Season 16 Las Vegas Odds Going Into Week 4 – What do you think?
“I’ve missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I’ve been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” ~Michael Jordan on beating the odds
Sports Bovada has posted their new set of odds for Dancing With The Stars Season 16 Week 4. Though once again, I have to disagree for how they are tying Andy, D.L., and Lisa at 100/1, but, that’s ok because Andy keeps proving this set of odds makers wrong every week…and same with Lisa. D.L. too, but, I don’t think Andy and Lisa belong in the same group or with as low as odds as D.L. in my opinion. Also, what are they seeing in Aly and Sean? I don’t get it? 😯
Zendaya Coleman 8/5
Kellie Pickler 2/1
Jacoby Jones 3/1
Aly Raisman 15/2
Ingo Rademacher 25/1
Sean Lowe 25/1
Victor Ortiz 75/1
Andy Dick 100/1
D.L. Hughley 100/1
Lisa Vanderpump 100/1
Here are last week’s Las Vegas Odds to compare.
Zendaya Coleman 5/2
Jacoby Jones 4/1
Aly Raisman 9/2
Kellie Pickler 5/1
Dorothy Hamill 7/1
Ingo Rademacher 16/1
Sean Lowe 16/1
Andy Dick 75/1
D.L. Hughley 75/1
Victor Ortiz 75/1
Wynonna Judd 75/1
Lisa Vanderpump 100/1
And like in previous weeks, below are the odds from Wynn Las Vegas currently to compare. With an exception to Aly Raisman (who should be in 6th or 7th in my opinion), I think they have it about right. Though I have a feeling Jacoby will win. I also think Andy should be higher at 4th or 5th? I think he can take Victor!
Kellie Pickler Derek Hough 7 TO 2
ZENDAYA COLEMAN Valentin Chmerkovskiy 4 TO 1
JACOBY JONES Karina Smirnoff 9 TO 2
ALY RAISMAN Mark Ballas 5 TO 1
INGO RADEMACHER Kym Johnson 10 TO 1
VICTOR ORTIZ LINDSAY ARNOLD 15 TO 1
ANDY DICK Sharna Burgess 16 TO 1
Sean Lowe Peta Murgatroyd 28 TO 1
Lisa Vanderpump GLEB SAVCHENKO 60 TO 1
D.L. HUGHLEY Cheryl Burke 75 TO 1
Ok, let’s see what our Miss Heidi and Courtney think and be sure to let us know your thoughts on this weeks odds as well in comments…..
Heidi: Well, both sets of Odds have Kellie and Zendaya pretty much neck and neck and I agree with that…although I still think they are neck and neck for SECOND place. 🙂 Still thinking it’s going to be Jacoby standing up there at the end, but if he doesn’t shine this week I may revise my opinion on that one. And if it comes down to Kellie and Zendaya, Zendaya will win because of the whole Derek backlash crap perpetuated by the “everyone gets to win” mentality of pee wee baseball – no point in pretending it will be a contest. She might have won anyway, but it’s so much easier when so many people are voting against the other team because of the pro in the mistaken belief that he “wins all the time”. I also agree wtih Aly being in 4th place – you have to take into consideration all the other dancers who are left and none of them are really standing out – including Aly – but she has fanbase over the rest of them, I think. Beyond that…well, I MUCH prefer Wynn’s read on the situation, since they have Sean going out in week 6 and Andy and Victor lasting longer than him. 🙂
Courtney: Not a whole lot to add here – I think Kellie & Zendaya tied is about right, and it kind of reminds me of last season at this time, when William & Katherine were at the top of the odds and Donald was much lower, which I think is mirroring the situation with Jacoby right now. The more and more I mull it over, the more I think that the backlash that Heidi mentioned with Derek, combined with some growing backlash I’m seeing about Zendaya “being pimped”, I think the stage is slowly being set for Jacoby to play spoiler and swoop in to win it all. As for everyone else – Aly bores me to tears, but I think she too has enough of a fanbase to keep her in for awhile – plus we’re starting to witness some subtle pimpage from the judges. I think Andy now has MUCH better odds of sticking around than Lisa, D.L, AND Victor, and think it’s going to be either Lisa or Victor on the chopping block this coming week. Still boggles my mind that people are still voting for D.L. – I find absolutely nothing appealing or redeeming about that man, as all I’ve seen him do is whine, bitch, and moan about the judges “being bullies”, crack painfully unfunny & often inappropriate jokes, and half-ass his way through his routines. But hey, as we’ve said before: there are some batsh*t crazy fans out there…
I personally see tons of potential in Aly and IMO her dances haven’t sucked. Granted, they haven’t been WOW but I see her going far if she let’s go and shows off some personality. I get a feeling (Nothing to back me up here) that Mark is in the middle of ‘scheming’ so to speak, on how to dethrone Zendaya. Did you notice he wasn’t applauding when she was crowned Queen? LOL!!! Now, if she continues the way she is now, then yes, she should be lower.
I like Zendaya a lot but I hope Kellie wins this thing. While Zendaya has been doing stellar work, the Twitter thing is turning me off. That and quite honesty, Kellie is giving her a serious run for her money and I hope she pulls this one!! BUT both ladies need to watch out for Jacoby. For the first time, he impressed me with his dancing (Because apparently you have to impress ME in order for me to think you can win 😉 ) And if he keeps it up, he definitely has this in the bag.
And I think we can all agree about Sean, LOL.
I agree with the top 3. I believe it will come down to Kellie, Jacoby and Zendaya, and still have a glimmer of hope that Kellie can pull out the win. The more I think about the Derek backlash from last season was a combined backlash that both Shawn and Derek had won, and Kelly had won, while Tony and Melissa were the only “team” standing that had never won. I feel Kellie’s personality is just as endearing and fun as Jacoby’s, without all the fart jokes, which makes her better, in my opinion. I think the top three all have pros and cons, so it’s hard to say who will win, but I hope it’s Kellie.
I agree with what most has been said.
I think the top 3 will be Z, K & J and probably a J win.
I think it’s unfortunate that Kellie is being “saddled” with the Derek has already won 3 mentality – from the last three weeks she has proved herself to be a great student, hard working and so much fun to watch – that should be the criteria for winning.
It’s hard to imagine a scenario where anyone other than their top 4 listed could *win*, barring any injuries, god forbid. But this early in the last season I would have, and did say, I couldn’t imagine T/M winning. I think it’s possible for Aly to win if she’s the one they focus on how much she’s improved…Now who will make it to top 3 or even top 4, I can imagine a lot of scenarios, or at least some that include Andy, perhaps Sean if they keep talking about how he really has gusto (no better dancer than Andy imo and less entertaining imo), and perhaps there’s a voting soap base for Ingo, and perhaps people will decide they need a showmance which could give a boost to Victor. And maybe DL/C will be given a huge boost, poor victim DL and isn’t C a great teacher!
What I like about Ingo is that he is trying his darndest. And I have mad respect for that. As for his soap fan base, well, GH is MY show right now, but my votes are for Kellie. Jax was a popular character but I don’t know if Ingo has the fanbase that Kelly had. If he improves and barring any manipulation from TPTB, I can see him going to the final 5 but that’s kind of reaching because IMO he is kind of forgetful at the end of the night. I guess I don’t know what to think then, LOL
First time, posting here, but I wonder if the business of Vegas bookmaking comes into play? Could some of these odds just be a product of a lot of money being on Aly and Sean and the odds are to perhaps there to discourage money coming in?
I know from knowing sports betting that bookmakers will sometimes make favorable odds for severe underdogs just to encourage money to move in certain ways.
Jacoby for the win does not please me. As for now, I think he is assuming he will win, therefore I don’t see a ton of effort on his dancing skills. Yes, his Rumba was good, and that surprised me.
If he wins it, I hope it would be for his journey and not simply for the fact that he’s an NFL player for the Ravens and crazy-mad fans voting for that reason only. Yes, that’s very rose-colored glasses of me, but geez, I would really like to see the very best dancer win for a change. Today–that is Kellie.
To me it doesn’t seem like Jacoby thinks he’s got it won. And I think there have been 8 football players who did not win, including the not win for Emmitt. To me it seems like he’s having a lot of fun but that doesn’t mean he isn’t working hard. My guess is that he’s working very hard because he has a task master for a partner. And one who want her partners to learn to dance with good technique. And people vote for all kinds of reasons that are OK with me, many vote for no matter who Derek has, or no matter who Maks has whether or not they’re the best dancer. I voted for JR because he was the most inspiring, I thought he was a good dancer but some thought he wasn’t the best. Many people are voting like crazy for Andy, I could go on and on. For me for a win, I like a total package that certainly includes good dancing. I won’t be sad if Jacoby wins, but I’d also be extremely happy if Kellie wins. (all my opinion only)
I hope Jacoby and Karina wins! I voted so many times for them! I luv Jacoby! He’s working hard and deserve it just like anyone else!I think people get the wrong understanding about him! They judge cause they don’t know! I luv him and Karina!
OT Vogue, thanks for the Jordan quote, a fave of mine and appropriate here.
YW! Glad you liked that. 😉
I don’t know what is happening, but what I know is that D.L. is the “new Bristol Palin”, in my opinion: the most the judges are harsh the most people will keep him in the show!
I think Cheryl’s fans should be able to realize that she’s not enjoying the journey this time around on the show! She seemed kinda happy for knowing inwardly that they’d be leaving the show on the first round of eliminations! Well, that wasn’t a shoking surprise only to her…
Last season was the very first season I followed live, so someone helps me please, was this show ever been about the best dancer one day?
I think Justin #6 has an interesting point. My dad’s a bigtime gambler so I know that is often the case. I’m very curious to know what all goes into these odds. I know how the odds for “regular” sports gambling works, but I’m really curious how serious the Vegas oddsmakers work on these DWTS odds. If you guys ever find a story giving inside info on how this works I’d love to hear it. I’m curious if the oddsmakers take things like Sean being pimped because ABC wants to promote his wedding special into account, for example.
I think the way the Bovada one has a significant separation between the top three and the rest is more accurate than the top grouping of the Wynn one. Not as sure about the bottom players, through. I’m hoping the Wynn one is more accurate there, as they had DL and Sean lower, but I’m really not sure.
I read an interview with Steve Wynn – I think that’s his name – of Wynn Casino last year and he said that when they fix the odds, they take numerous things into consideration, including talking to people who understand dancing and the show.
Now, I have no idea how it works, but I thought that once the initial odds were fixed, then they fluctuated depending on who was putting money on whom and how much? Or maybe that’s just in horse racing?
I also don’t get the impression that Jacoby thinks he has this in the bag yet. Even if I didn’t know what an exactly taskmaster Karina is, and that she wouldn’t be so happy if she didn’t have someone who is working hard, you can see the big improvement in his dancing just between the first and third week. He couldn’t have improved that much if he wasn’t working hard. Just because he likes to goof around doesn’t mean he isn’t working hard. JR liked to goof around as well, but he also worked hard.
Supposed to be exacting, not exactly.
Karina has stated in interviews that Jacoby’s work ethic is what impresses her the most about him. She says when he doesn’t get dance moves he goes home and practices then returns the next day showing improvement. Maybe it’s just pure spin from Karina, but I tend to believe her based on the improvement he has made since week one. Truth be told, I’m not familiar with the politics and gamesmanship between the professional dancers and drama behind the scenes but I’m getting a quick lesson since I discovered this site. Go Jacoby!
Sorry, Regina, but I feel you’re “judging without knowing” when you imply that those who don’t love Jacoby like you do have the “wrong understanding”.
I’ve given Jacoby the benefit of the doubt and to me, while he’s a bit off-the-wall, he seems like a good person at heart. There are celebs I like better, but I have no issue with Jacoby making the finals if he keeps working hard and if shows he can be good in ballroom as well as Latin.
@lurker – I would tend to believe that most of the contestants practice their steps at home. I love Karina, but practicing at home is no biggie. But that Doesn’t make Jacoby’s work ethic any greater than let’s say, Andy.
If my memory serves me correctly, In one of the dance packages Hines was shown practicing his dance moves at home with a pillow (a.k.a Kym).
I have no doubt that Jacoby has outstanding work ethic, but unfortunately, in this competition, we all like and root for whomever we like. And my contestant(s) of choice this season is NOT Jacoby. But when it’s all said and done, I am sure Jacoby will be in the final 3, and that’s okay by me. 🙂
I wasn’t comparing Jacoby’s work ethic to another celebrity. My comment was in response to #7 “I don’t see a ton of effort on his dancing skills.” The point I was making is that extra practice and showing improvement is effort. Guess I should have been more direct.
#14 Evaine, from what I know, you are correct. But there are times that when they set the initial odds, they do so with the expectation of money moving in certain direction. I’d think if you’d like to look at the patterns in a similar fashion to horse racing, you’d have to compare the odds each week. Horse racing tends to just move a lot faster with the betting lines, but the patterns should be similar.
For instance, Aly at 15/2 could be in part because the money’s stopped coming in on her based on her performances as opposed to the 7/2 she started on. Also, Zendaya being at 8/5 is a reflection of her status, but there also could be a slew of money coming in this week and 8/5 are not good odds, in reality, compared to the pricing of Aly and even Kellie at 2/1.
Betting’s a weird thing.
I think, Justin, that I’ll stick to “heads or tails”. *LOL*
I’m fascinated by Zendaya, so I hope these odds are right about #1 🙂
I’m tired of Football players winning. A Footballer won last year & the year before, so I hope I don’t see another repeat/re-run of that.
I think what the odds-makers see in Aly & Sean is they’re young & fit (which helps as the season grinds on).
D.L has got to GO!!
I LOVE Kellie and Derek. Kellie comes across as such a sweet woman. How many people in her position would shave their head to support their friend undergoing chemo for cancer? I AM a huge Derek fan and think it’s ridiculous that people vote against whomever he is partnered with because he has “won too much”. That’s riduculous!!
I like Mark too and I agree..maybe he’s scheming! They have Contemporary this week and I expect a brilliant performace from them and I told Mark that on Twitter.
I’m having surgery on Monday and will be in the hospital overnight. I have my alarm set on my iPhone so I can make sure I watch the show and am bringing ALL my phones and iPad and MacBook so I can vote for my fave team, which is Kellie and Derek. Now if that’s not a dedicated fan, I don’t know WHAT is! 😉
Good Luck with your surgery Kelly. 🙂
I wish you a speedy recovery, Kelly! Nice to have something to look forward to right after the surgery! You are, indeed, a dedicated fan!
Good luck with your surgery Kelly. We’ll be thinking about you and come back to us soon. xx
KellyK, best of luck with your surgery! Take it easy and don’t overdo.
It is very early in the season, so really anything can happen. But, I like most people, like to speculate and I appreciate having a place like this to come here and do just that. People vote for MANY different reasons and certainly not for always the best dancer!Sean is certainly not the best dancer, but he does have fans who support him on the show. D.L. is not very good at dancing, but his quick comebacks to the judges people find entertaining. While I can’t see either one of them winning, I also don’t see either of them leaving in the next couple of weeks, before Victor or Lisa, and maybe even Ingo. Even though Wynonna was a horrible dancer and I was thrilled to see her leave, I was surprised that it wasn’t Victor and Lindsay, cause I would have thought they had less fans voting for them, but obviously that wasn’t the case.
Dee, this is a blog for opinions…and opinions that you may not like or agree with. If you don’t like it, it’s not going to hurt us if you leave. Bye.
Forgot to say, I hope your surgery goes well Kelly and that you make a quick and complete recovery! Look forward to hearing your thoughts after next weeks show!
I have a couple questions – do people ACTUALLY bet on DWTS?? Or is it for fun only? I can’t imagine there are many people who are putting money down on it, so that could heavily skew the results if, say, Jacoby’s fans were more likely to bet than any other fan group.
And, I’m EXTREMELY tired of the phrase “I’m tired of _____ winning.” It’s silly. Whether it’s football players or Derek, they win for a REASON, and usually a very good one. Even then, the phrase is bullshit because Derek has won 3 times in 11 seasons and out of the 9 football players that have been on, only three have won. How can you be “tired” of something that happens only 30% of the time or LESS….unless of course, they beat out your favorites. 🙂
Good luck, Kelly!
#33 Princess Heidi – Yes, there are actually people who bet on DWTS. A friend of mine at work placed a bet on Apolo last season based on the odds (8:1) and my analysis that Apolo had a good (but not necessarily great) chance of winning. He asked me for my advice again this season . Jacoby had 4:1 odds, and I told him that Jacoby would in all likelihood make the finals at a minimum.
Jimmy Kimmel bets 1000 dollars every season and he has since one of the first seasons, I think 4th or 5th.
Well, I hope that Kellie will pull it out and not just because she is Derek’s partner, although in MY eyes that doesn’t hurt…lol. I read a recent interview and did you all know that her beloved grandpa had a heart attack the day that the celebs and pro’s were announced. That is why he hasn’t been at the show yet. He will be there in a couple of weeks. The stress she must feel about that and yet she just keeps on keeping on…she is one tough lady!
Oh Well, Princess Heidi didn’t like my comment, but that’s okay. I never watched DWTS until 2 years ago… I started watching to see Chelsea Kane dance.
Then you have even less of an excuse for making such a comment, Carrie.
Best luck with the surgery Kelly #25! I love Derek & Kellie too. If justice and fairness were actually to be served, I think Derek & Shawn should’ve won last season and Derek & Kelly should win this season. He deserves multiple MBTs because his talent is one in a billion and no one else can even come close. Its ridiculous to award the MBT to a less talented couple, for whatever “pee wee baseball mentality” reason, as Heidi mentioned. I only hope America gets it right this season.
Gabby and Kyla will be in the audience this week supporting Aly. Aly is going to be getting love this week. The judges already are in her corner despite meh performances. With contemporary, Mark will do his usual over the top style and will be memorable. Good memorable? Maybe but she is barely memorable now.
MY POEM FOR WEEK THREE
THE DANCING WITH THE STARS PROM
Did you go to your prom when in high school
Did you buy a pretty gown and look way cool
Did your date pin a corsage or flower on you
Did you dance until midnight or perhaps two
The Prom was the theme of the dancing show
Many dances featured, the ballroom all aglow
Ingo and Kym did a Paso Dole fierce and grand
Was Karina and Jacoby’s rumba best in the land
Lindsey and Victor’s contemporary surely wowed
Kellie and Derek’s jive stirred the ballroom crowd
Cheryl and D L’s Salsa shimmied around the floor
Did Tony, Wynonna’s Samba make us want more
Andy and Sharna, Peta, Sean did Cha Cha Cha
The ballroom shook with approval and a hurrah
The elegant Viennese Waltz was done by three
Zendaya and Val made us cheer with giddy glee
Lisa and Gleb, Aly, Mark waltzed in grand style
The Prom took us on a thrill ride for a little while
Tony, Wynonna won’t dance again, had to go
The Prom was held, the dances stole the show
Kellie was crowned the Prom Queen of the night
Jacoby was crowned The Prom King with delight
The decorations of the Prom were stored away
We will come back to the ballroom another day!
Written By Lois A Troutman, April 6, 2013
THE PROM AND THE CROWNING OF THE QUEEN AND KING!
WAS ON DANCING WITH THE STARS, WE LOVED EVERYTHING!!
The Wet Paint/DWTS Facebook page posted an article about Lisa fainting while practicing. Has anybody else heard anything and is she ok? Apparently the promos they air for DWTS starting the 7th are supposed to tease her getting sick.
I’m not sure something like that should be used as a teaser. I mean I know it makes for good drama and people will want to tune in to see if she performs but if she’s sick, she’s sick.
Or am I just taking what TPTB do the wrong way?
Wow, I hadn’t heard about Kellie’s grandfather! Hope he is doing well now. What a worry for her!
Lois, excellent once again. I love your poems!!! Thanks so much!
Thank you for all the well wishes!
Cher, TPTB will do anything they can to get people to tune in. They really do try to appeal to the lowest common denominator. It’s pathetic.
I hope Lisa is OK and that the fainting incident was just a case of dehydration and lack of rest. This was a particularly hectic week for her with the business trip to NYC.
I have a feeling that Lisa wouldn’t be too broken hearted if they were eliminated. Sure, she has gained some new fans, but she seems like, okay, I did it, I did my best, and it’s okay to move on now.
And of course, she got to work next to the hunk Gleb. Sounds like all positives if you ask me.
Sandy, I think you’re on the right track with Lisa. I believe she went into this show, like the savvy businesswoman she is, with her parameters and expectations solidly in place. She allots X-number of hours of her day to the show and puts in a legitimate effort while in the rehearsal studio. For her this is not about winning, it’s about participating and enjoying her time on the show. So if she is eliminated this week (or next), I don’t think she’ll have any regrets.
Whenever they go, I just hope they did enough to convince TPTB to sign Gleb next season. If they’re still about keeping new faces, Tony’s a legitimate choice for rotation with Gleb as the new tall, dark, and sweet-natured pro.
Thanks so much Voguerista! I love writing them! I posted my Week Two poem in here somewhere and I have been posting them in your Facebook page too.
Princess Heidi, it very well could be that Vegas is taking odds and no one is really betting on anyone. Granted, it’s Vegas, so of course these bookmakers are going to take odds and will try to make some money off of it, so naturally some of them would be skewed.
I’ve never really taken certain odds for things like DWTS so seriously just because I’m thinking the amount of money actually coming through is small, so I’d assume that the odds are bound to be slightly wonky because of it. Funnily, I’ve found the odds on things like boxing to be much more accurate than others, but that’s just me.
Cindra, I think you make some good points. Lisa, I think would not be as heartbroken to leave, as I think Andy or even Ingo may be. But, I do think she gives her it best to help make Gleb look good, as it appears to me he has the same fire I see in Sharna-the I’m here to show what I’ve got to offer fans, the show and my partner. I don’t see that same fire in Lindsay.
I too hope Gleb comes back next season, but I truly don’t think it will be to rotate Tony out. As someone put it to me, they need MBT winners to entice celebs to want to do the show. Even though I didn’t think Melissa and Tony deserved to win All Stars, he is now part of the winners circle. If they haven’t gotten rid of Peta, who still has yet to develop any persona, I honestly can’t see them getting rid of nice guy Tony. Plus, the fact that Tony, for whatever reason, usually gets eliminated fairly early. TPTB may figure why rotate him out when he usually leaves early anyhow.