DWTS Season 16, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers
Oy veh, ABC. This twitter stuff is just CRAP. I put that right in my opener in hopes they see it and realize that they are quickly turning me off this show. 🙂
Seriously, saving Lisa for the end and claiming she just then decided to dance?? Tom called it – “Sure hope she’s dancing, otherwise we have a lot of time to fill.” The constant, craven need for buzz, hype, younger viewers – it’s just become so distasteful. You are looking desperate, DWTS, and that looks good on NO ONE.
Interestingly, the only dances I found to be really memorable last night were Jacoby and Andy. And, after last night, I become more convinced that Jacoby will win this unless Zendaya’s fan’s parents let them stay up past 9 pm to vote. Because those children are CRAZY on Twitter – egged on by Zendaya and Val themselves. Courtney and I both got trolled on twitter by the charming little dears. Sorry, not terribly impressed with Zendaya’s Samba (it was a Samba, right?), nor was I terribly impressed with Kellie’s rumba – both were good dances, but I guess I was expecting more. I was concerned that Kellie wouldn’t be able to give the Rumba her all in front of her hubby while he was playing the song they got married to – not to mention losing a day and a half of rehearsal. It was a very good dance, it just didn’t touch me the way I hoped. Perhaps my expectations were too high. That said…I’ve already forgotten Aly’s Contemporary.
It’s entirely possible that my entire view of the show last night could be colored by the fact that the Man Behind the Curtain is wearing neon and jumping up and down, waving his arms. This show bored me. The cardinal sin of TV shows. Maybe I will like it better tomorrow.
On the up side, there will be lots of dancing in the results show. 🙂 Guess what, ABC?? I LOVE DANCING.
Anyway…here’s how our dancers stack up.
This is where things get interesting. Sean is only 2 points from the bottom and I keep forgetting he’s on the show. Problem is, I keep forgetting Victor and Ingo too. Victor and Lisa have been in the bottom two, as has Andy. For those reasons, I’m thinking that Sean is likely safe. So, our low scorers from last night are Lisa and Victor. Ordinarily, since both have been in the bottom two, I would say one would go home for sure – but Lisa likely has the sympathy vote working in her favor. Which puts Victor and Andy in jeopardy. Does Andy’s lead keep him safe?? Read on.
What does Victor need in order to advance to next week?? Victor needs ONE of the following (just replace his name with Lisa’s if you want to see what it takes for her):
– Victor needs ONE more vote than Lisa per million votes cast, OR;
– Victor needs 9,000 more votes per million votes cast than Sean, OR;
– Victor needs 13,400 more votes per million votes cast than either DL or Andy, OR;
– Victor needs 22,400 more votes per million votes cast than Ingo, OR;
– Victor needs 26,800 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby, OR;
– Victor needs 35,800 more votes per million votes cast then EITHER Zendaya or Kellie, OR;
– Victor needs 40,200 more votes per million votes cast than Alexandra.
Now, there’s no way that either Victor or Lisa get the votes needed to pass Jacoby, Zendaya, Kellie or Aly, so I think it’s safe to assume they are safe. After that it gets…murky. Since DL has been the low scorer and has avoided the bottom two, I think he avoids it again this week. That brings us to Sean and Andy. First, what does Sean need to be safe tonight? He needs ONE of the following:
– Sean needs for EITHER Victor or Lisa to NOT get the 9,000 more votes per million votes cast to pass him, OR;
– Sean needs 4,500 more votes per million votes cast than either DL or Andy, OR;
– Sean needs 13,400 more votes per million votes cast than Ingo, OR;
– Sean needs 17,900 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby, OR;
– Sean needs 26,800 more votes per million votes cast then EITHER Zendaya or Kellie, OR;
– Sean needs 31,300 more votes per million votes cast than Alexandra.
I think that neither Victor nor Lisa is getting the votes to get past him, and I would be willing to bet that he’s beating one or both of DL and Andy. I could be wrong – we’ll see.
That brings us to DL and Andy. Since DL was the low scorer Week 2 and wasn’t in the bottom two, and he got the 8,700 votes to beat Andy last week, I wager he’s safe again this week. Not only does he only have to beat Andy by ONE vote as opposed to 4,400, but Victor and Lisa each need 13,400 votes. I don’t see the latter happening, at least. So, I’m going to frame this next bit around Andy, although it also applies to DL. For Andy to be safe, he needs ONE of the following to happen:
– He needs for EITHER Victor or Lisa to NOT get the 13,400 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
– Andy needs for Sean to NOT get 4,500 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
– Andy needs ONE more vote per million votes cast than DL (or vice versa), OR;
– Andy needs 9,000 more votes per million votes cast than Ingo, OR;
– Andy needs 13,400 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby, OR;
– Andy needs 22,400 more votes per million votes cast then EITHER Zendaya or Kellie, OR;
– Andy needs 26,800 more votes per million votes cast than Alexandra.
I don’t really see either Victor or Lisa getting those votes to get past Andy. It seems to me that they’ve pretty well isolated Victor and Lisa from those who might be vulnerable – Andy and DL. I think Sean is likely safe – although I would be happy to be wrong on that one.
It’s entirely possible that Lisa gets the votes to put Andy in the bottom two based purely on sympathy, but I don’t think Victor gets past Andy. At the end of the day I think Victor and Lisa are the bottom two with Victor going home. Sympathy vote wins the day. If not that, then Victor and Andy with Victor going home.
But, I’m betting Victor/Lisa bottom two with Victor going home.
I think it’s going to be Victor and Lindsay this week as well, unless as Courtney predicted, Lisa suddenly drops out. I liked them a lot in the beginning but he doesn’t seem to be improving much so I’m okay with them going now. Hopefully Lindsay can do a lot of stuff with the troupe and for result shows to gain some more experience before next season.
I agree that there’s just a little bit too much manipulation. And the Twitter thing isn’t that great either. While I was very excited about a lot of the cast heading into the season, the excitement has been waning for most of the couples. Usually in the early weeks of a season, I vote for all the couples I’d like to see stick around. This season, I haven’t cared enough to vote for anyone other than Andy and Kellie – even though I’d like to see several people outlast DL and Sean, the dancing and chemistry with Lisa and Victor hasn’t been enough – and the others (other than maybe Ingo) should stay around for awhile without my help.
Ingo is losing me, too much wife. Put her in the background and show some heat with gorgeous Kym Johnson. Looks like you are dancing with your sister.
Great numbers Heidi! I’m with you this time…Lisa is most likely going home, but oh, what I’d give for it to be D.L. or even Sean to go home instead. I also think Victor could be a possibly. These are the 4 worst dancers imo. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Lisa decided to withdraw tonight.
I agree with you V about those being the worst 4, but it wouldn’t be DWTS without a “shocking elimination” which could involve Aly and Mark, the new leaders at least for now! But it probably would be more likely to be Ingo, cause as someone commented on already, there really isn’t the chemistry there as they are more like siblings.
Great post as usual PH. I would like to toss out his tidbit. From talking to my friends and reading on FB, it seems that a lot of “lurker viewers” (watch but don’t vote) voted for Andy last night. Hope that means he sticks areound.
What I wouldn’t give to be rid of Sean. Hope he’s a surprise elimination tonight, but I think Victor goes tonight, possibly Lisa.
Add me to those who can’t stand the Twitter stuff.
I hope that Lisa is the one to go, or Andy. Sean and Victor don’t bother me.
I think I said I thought that Victor was going home, with Lisa as my second choice…didn’t I?
I wonder if they’ll do an actual bottom two or “not necessarily the bottom two”?
Either way is fine with me as long as Sean goes home.
Oops sorry Heidi! Yes, that’s correct.
Fig, I would love it be Sean too.
(I’ve read and watched so much today and with trying to dig out from this storm too, I can’t keep things straight)
PH thank you for saying ABC This Twitter stuff is just CRAP.. I feel exactly the same way. I was looking forward to this season until they started that nonsense. I feel the same way as you did about Zandaya’s Samba or non Samba. I mentioned it in another post, but like to hear from people who know a lot more than myself. Some of her fans are annoying me to the point of where I am turned off by her. Not on this site, but some others. I heard she does things move wise that have never been done in the history of the show. Along with that comment I read that Derek couldn’t even have Nicole do it as it was too hard. Wish I could remember the name that was given to the dance moves that only Zendaya can do. I only remember that it starts with a “B”. Don’t know how to do a big eye roll…., but put one here.
Vogue and others who would love to see a surprise Sean or DL elimination I feel the same way. I doubt it as there are still quite a few Bachelor fans around. I am just tired of the story.
I like Victor and was hoping he would improve, but it looks like it will be him and possibly Lisa. Still like both of them as people. I did vote some for Andy and as long as he stays I will be happy. He deserves to. I compare Andy who has always put in long hours because he truly wants this to DL who I am guessing by Len’s comment didn’t until this week.
@Gail – Was it “bachata”? If so, whoever said it is full of sh*t & just trying to sound knowledgeable about dance, because she certainly didn’t do any in that samba last night…and really, it’s a move most pros don’t even do in their own routines, because it’s a tad corny. Yeah, it’s hard for a beginner to learn & have it look good, but it’s also just a step that’s not as popular as it once was…I’d have to ask the bf, but I almost want to say that it was a relic from the days of “old style” samba.
I know we don’t get personal here but I need to vent, rant. Maybe even downright b!t(h about a few things. By no means has it happened on here and I am not saying it is about anything on here but I feel a kinship with you all and dang it I just like it here. My apologies if I sound trollish and I am in no means trying to start an issue and I just might be taking it the wrong way after the week of gut wrenching pain I have been in.
I get people getting on Derek for winning. I don’t agree with it but I get it. I even understand how they can in a small way for some unknown crazy reason think he only gets good dancers. I get the politics and it is all about ratings but when people go as far as to say a contestant FAKED passing out and being sick.
Sean saying on Extra “I don”t see why’d Lisa would fake it.” Then saying something about I hope she’s ok I can almost excuse because he’s a freakin’ idiot that doesn’t know what is coming out of his mouth half the time so people ignore him but the people on Twitter and elsewhere. I kind of take that personally and it bothers me. Ok, it peeves me off. As a person that was fainting at the drop of the hat because of being in so much pain to the point they can’t work I ask this of the people claiming Lisa is “faking it” think before you speak because Karma is on the menu and the only thing it serves is what you order.
Not cool. Not cool at all.
Have to agree that last night was boring. I heard DWTS didn’t do well in the ratings last night…
I’m wondering if Lisa will drop out and if not, then Victor to go home.
@Courtney so sorry I didn’t see this until now. Yes it was Bachacatas. I went back and looked up what she said. Since then someone else asked what they were and she posted how they are done and continued with her raving about it. You are right about her just trying to sound knowledgeable because that is how all her comments are written. Thanks so much for the explanation about Bachacata and confirming that Zandaya didn’t do any of them during her dance. 🙂
You’re welcome Gail – and when I got to thinking about it, I realized that bachatas HAVE been done on the show before: at least Apolo did them in his samba, and I’m sure others have done them, too. And I actually went as far as to ask the bf about them – he says he “generally doesn’t do them in choreography with students because they look dumb” and that they’re “not hard – just hard to make them look good, because they’re a dumb-looking step”. 😛
Courtney this time I managed to see your comment a whole lot sooner and thank you again. I appreciate you telling me that they have been done before by Apollo and perhaps others. Might just have to inform that person who thinks she knows all. 🙂 Thank your bf as well and love the comment that they’re “not hard” just hard to make them look good because they’re a dumb-looking step!
So glad I found this site where I know I can get information from people who know what they are talking about rather than people who think they know and pretend to be experts. 🙂
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