DWTS Season 16, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers

Oy veh, ABC. This twitter stuff is just CRAP. I put that right in my opener in hopes they see it and realize that they are quickly turning me off this show. :-)

Seriously, saving Lisa for the end and claiming she just then decided to dance?? Tom called it – “Sure hope she’s dancing, otherwise we have a lot of time to fill.” The constant, craven need for buzz, hype, younger viewers – it’s just become so distasteful. You are looking desperate, DWTS, and that looks good on NO ONE.

Interestingly, the only dances I found to be really memorable last night were Jacoby and Andy. And, after last night, I become more convinced that Jacoby will win this unless Zendaya’s fan’s parents let them stay up past 9 pm to vote. Because those children are CRAZY on Twitter – egged on by Zendaya and Val themselves.  Courtney and I both got trolled on twitter by the charming little dears. Sorry, not terribly impressed with Zendaya’s Samba (it was a Samba, right?), nor was I terribly impressed with Kellie’s rumba – both were good dances, but I guess I was expecting more.  I was concerned that Kellie wouldn’t be able to give the Rumba her all in front of her hubby while he was playing the song they got married to – not to mention losing a day and a half of rehearsal. It was a very good dance, it just didn’t touch me the way I hoped. Perhaps my expectations were too high. That said…I’ve already forgotten Aly’s Contemporary.

It’s entirely possible that  my entire view of the show last night could be colored by the fact that the Man Behind the Curtain is wearing neon and jumping up and down, waving his arms.  This show bored me. The cardinal sin of TV shows. Maybe I will like it better tomorrow.

On the up side, there will be lots of dancing in the results show.  :-)   Guess what, ABC?? I LOVE DANCING.

Anyway…here’s how our dancers stack up.

Week 4 Numbers

This is where things get interesting. Sean is only 2 points from the bottom and I keep forgetting he’s on the show. Problem is, I keep forgetting Victor and Ingo too.  Victor and Lisa have been in the bottom two, as has Andy. For those reasons, I’m thinking that Sean is likely safe.  So, our low scorers from last night are Lisa and Victor. Ordinarily, since both have been in the bottom two, I would say one would go home for sure – but Lisa likely has the sympathy vote working in her favor. Which puts Victor and Andy in jeopardy.  Does Andy’s lead keep him safe?? Read on.

What does Victor need in order to advance to next week??  Victor needs ONE of the following (just replace his name with Lisa’s if you want to see what it takes for her):

–        Victor needs ONE more vote than Lisa per million votes cast, OR;

–        Victor needs 9,000 more votes per million votes cast than Sean, OR;

–        Victor needs 13,400 more votes per million votes cast than either DL or Andy, OR;

–        Victor needs 22,400 more votes per million votes cast than Ingo, OR;

–        Victor needs 26,800 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby, OR;

–        Victor needs 35,800 more votes per million votes cast then EITHER Zendaya or Kellie, OR;

–        Victor needs 40,200 more votes per million votes cast than Alexandra.

Now, there’s no way that either Victor or Lisa get the votes needed to pass Jacoby, Zendaya, Kellie or Aly, so I think it’s safe to assume they are safe.  After that it gets…murky. Since DL has been the low scorer and has avoided the bottom two, I think he avoids it again this week. That brings us to Sean and Andy.  First, what does Sean need to be safe tonight? He needs ONE of the following:

–        Sean needs for EITHER Victor or Lisa to NOT get the 9,000 more votes per million votes cast to pass him, OR;

–        Sean needs 4,500 more votes per million votes cast than either DL or Andy, OR;

–        Sean needs 13,400 more votes per million votes cast than Ingo, OR;

–        Sean needs 17,900 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby, OR;

–        Sean needs 26,800 more votes per million votes cast then EITHER Zendaya or Kellie, OR;

–        Sean needs 31,300 more votes per million votes cast than Alexandra.

I think that neither Victor nor Lisa is getting the votes to get past him, and I would be willing to bet that he’s beating one or both of DL and Andy. I could be wrong – we’ll see.

That brings us to DL and Andy. Since DL was the low scorer Week 2 and wasn’t in the bottom two, and he got the 8,700 votes to beat Andy last week, I wager he’s safe again this week. Not only does he only have to beat Andy by ONE vote as opposed to 4,400, but Victor and Lisa each need 13,400 votes. I don’t see the latter happening, at least. So, I’m going to frame this next bit around Andy, although it also applies to DL. For Andy to be safe, he needs ONE of the following to happen:

–        He needs for EITHER Victor or Lisa to NOT get the 13,400 more votes per million votes cast, OR;

–        Andy needs for Sean to NOT get 4,500 more votes per million votes cast, OR;

–        Andy needs ONE more vote per million votes cast than DL (or vice versa), OR;

–        Andy needs 9,000 more votes per million votes cast than Ingo, OR;

–        Andy needs 13,400 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby, OR;

–        Andy needs 22,400 more votes per million votes cast then EITHER Zendaya or Kellie, OR;

–        Andy needs 26,800 more votes per million votes cast than Alexandra.

I don’t really see either Victor or Lisa getting those votes to get past Andy. It seems to me that they’ve pretty well isolated Victor and Lisa from those who might be vulnerable – Andy and DL. I think Sean is likely safe – although I would be happy to be wrong on that one.

It’s entirely possible that Lisa gets the votes to put Andy in the bottom two based purely on sympathy, but I don’t think Victor gets past Andy.  At the end of the day I think Victor and Lisa are the bottom two with Victor going home. Sympathy vote wins the day.  If not that, then Victor and Andy with Victor going home.

But, I’m betting Victor/Lisa bottom two with Victor going home.