DWTS Season 16, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers

Okay, that turned out somewhat better than expected. For all the pimping of Maks, he ended up being a non-event – for me, anyway.  It’s rather odd, actually. I guess when you have nothing better to pimp, pimp one of the pro dancers who’s known for being a “bad boy” who’s not on this season. Ummmm…okay. I guess TPTB are just pandering to one group or another all the damn time. For those extremist Maks fans who read this site just so they can complain about us (yeah, it makes no sense to me either), the ratings were up LAST week, so if they are up again this week? Get over yourselves…it’s a trend, not an aberration. Reminds me of the Twihards who claimed they were tanking the MTV Awards this year by not watching…and they were actually UP significantly. Don’t jack with numbers, man. :-)

Mah goodness, my favorites of the night were Jacoby and Kellie – fantastic. Loved it. Zendaya is being soured for me by the pimping…and seriously? The bent legs, the instability coming out of the turns…if this girl were dancing with Derek she’d be getting hosed for being a ringer. And we’d be getting trolls out the wazoo.  But since she’s dancing with Val she essentially has rainbows shooting out her ass.  The girl is a good dancer, yes. And I like her as a person. But I have to tell you, I’m seeing a LOT of people in the comments here and on twitter who are getting REALLY good at predicting exactly what will happen. Up for 2 weeks, down for two weeks…to come roaring back to get two tens. Hello – we’ve seen this storyboarding before.  I expect someone else will get a perfect 30 next week – either Aly or Kellie, most likely. Because we have to keep it a horse race at all costs, so it can’t be Zendaya. And, as predicted, Zendaya and Val get the encore.

In the “credit where credit is due” department – Kick ass opening dance, Lacey Schwimmer!! Excellent. Loved it. Girlfriend has been honing her group choreo skills over there in Vegas and it’s paid off.  MUCH better job than Sharna did last week on the women’s number, although Lacey has the benefit of time and no celeb partner. And Sharna is doing great with Andy.

Anyway….how did our dancers do??

Week 5 Numbers

 

Now, Andy is in serious trouble here. DL has never been in the bottom two, while Andy has been. His only saving grace is Victor…but Victor has a cushion. What does Andy need to be safe? He needs ONE of the following things (substitute DL for his requirements):

–        Andy needs ONE more vote per million votes cast than DL, OR;

–        Andy needs 14,400 more votes per million votes cast than either Ingo or Victor, OR;

–        Andy needs 28,800 more votes per million votes cast than Sean, OR;

–        Andy needs 33,500 more votes per million votes cast than Aly, OR;

–        Andy needs 38,300 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby, OR;

–        Andy needs 43,100 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie, OR;

–        Andy needs 52,700 more votes per million votes cast than Zendaya.

Now, looking at those numbers I’d say that Andy only has a shot at beating DL or Victor – and I’m really not sure about either one. When Andy was beating Victor by one point, Victor couldn’t get the votes to stay out of the bottom two.  In week 3, Victor was beating Andy by 5 points and Andy couldn’t muster the points to stay out of the bottom two.  It seems to be a case with these two that whoever has the lower score ends up in the bottom two. But it’s week 5 – maybe Andy has built some support?? And, this week, Victor’s lead is only 3 points. Maybe it will be enough.

Anyway, once you get past Andy and DL, either of whom could easily be in the bottom two, you have Ingo and Victor. As I mentioned above, Victor has made several trips to the bottom two.  Ingo and Victor both need the same things to be safe – most importantly, Ingo needs ONE more vote than Victor to be safe…so I think he’s safe. But you never know.  What does Victor need to be safe? He needs ONE of the following things to happen:

–        Victor needs either DL or Andy to NOT get 14,400 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;

–        Victor needs to get ONE more vote per million votes cast than Ingo, OR;

–        Victor needs 14,400 more votes per million votes cast than Sean, OR;

–        Victor needs 19,200 more votes per million votes cast than Aly, OR;

–        Victor needs 24,000 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby, OR;

–        Victor needs 28,800 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie, OR;

–        Victor needs 38,300 more votes per million votes cast than Zendaya.

So, if DL stays true to form and stays out of the bottom two, that means that Andy and Victor are the most likely to be there. HOWEVER, I sense somewhat of a shift towards Andy. Could Ingo be in danger? Remember, Ingo and Victor have the same score, for Ingo to actually go home, it would mean Victor got one more vote than him and that both Andy and DL got 14,400 more votes per million votes cast than him. Since Victor has been in the bottom two TWICE, I would not be surprised if that happened. But if Andy is making a comeback and DL is still living on Cheryl’s fanbase, then Ingo could be in jeopardy. That would not shock me at all.

But what about Sean?? He and Ingo are the two middle men who seem to be forgotten between the really good dancers and the crap dancers who have some sort of entertainment factor.  For Sean to be safe he needs ONE of the following to happen:

–          Sean needs either DL or Andy to NOT get 28,800 more votes per million votes cast, OR;

–          Sean need either Ingo or Victor to NOT get 14,400 more votes per million votes cast, OR;

–          Sean needs 4,800 more votes per million votes cast than Aly, OR;

–          Sean needs 9,600 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby, OR;

–          Sean needs 14,400 more votes per million votes cast than Kellie, OR;

–          Sean needs 24,000 more votes per million votes cast than Zendaya.

I don’t see Victor, at least, getting the votes to get past Sean, and I kinda doubt that Andy or DL have that juice either. I guess we will see.

We’re in week 5…and sometimes, this is when we start to get “shocking” eliminations. Will we this week? I tend to think not, but what would be “shocking” at this point? Let’s see what Aly needs to do to be safe. Here’s what would have to happen for Aly to go home (next week I’ll do Kellie or Jacoby):

–          Andy and DL would BOTH have to get 33,500 more votes per million votes cast than Aly, AND;

–          Victor and Ingo BOTH have to get 19,200 more votes per million votes cast than Aly, AND;

–          Sean gets 4,800 more votes per million votes cast than Aly, AND;

–          Aly does NOT get the 4,800 more votes per million votes cast she would need to get past Jacoby, AND;

–          Aly does NOT get the 9,600 more votes per million votes cast she would need to get past Kellie, AND;

–          Aly does not get the 19,200 more votes per million votes cast she would need to get past Zendaya.

Could this happen? I find it to be highly unlikely. She hasn’t really been making much of a splash in this competition, but the girl is still an Olympic Gymnast who won medals just last summer. I don’t see it happening just yet, but when DL, Andy and Victor are gone? There could be trouble. But, I guess that could be true for Kellie and Zendaya as well. Jury is still out on if tweens vote in the same numbers as their older counterparts do.

ANYWAY, I’m thinking tonight could be interesting. I think the bottom two will be one of the following combinations:

Andy/DL

Andy/Victor

Victor/DL

Victor/Ingo

I don’t know why, but something in me is chanting Victor/Ingo in the bottom two with Victor going home. It could totally be wishful thinking on my part. I think it’s more likely to be either:

Andy/DL = DL goes home

Andy/Victor = Andy goes home

Hoping it’s DL that goes home, but I fear for Andy and Victor both. We’ll soon see!!