DWTS Season 16, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers
I think this is probably the stupidest thing that DWTS has EVER done. Seriously – these dancers had to learn FOUR dances this week?? Some can barely do ONE dance. So, as a result, we see a bunch of weak dancing and some horrendous dancing. The top 3 – Kellie, Zendaya and Aly – were not nearly as good as they could have been. I saw a whole bunch of Derek Hough choreography from half the pros NOT named Derek Hough (but who were named Mark, Karina and Val) – can’t say I blame them, given the lack of time. Dear lord – I think about what Kellie, Zendaya and Aly (and Jacoby) could have done with just ONE dance it just pisses me off. All could have been brilliant instead of just….good. In a couple cases, quite good.
To top it off – come on. That scoring was SO pre-determined and, in terms of Kellie, Aly and Zendaya, totally irrelevant. When you give Andy a 17, you have made your agenda clear. He was NOT that much worse than either Sean or Ingo, but you have your goals, don’t you judges. The added benefit was, of course, Zendaya’s fans are pissed and highly motivated. As I’ve come to call it, “Scenario #2” – the one that we discussed where they give Zendaya a 27 or 28 so when she kills the challenge she ends up with a 30 or higher – was likely part of the plan. Sooo freakin’ safe it isn’t even funny. Same for Aly. Oh, and speaking of the challenge – congrats Val, you earned the Chmerkovskiy name by being a total dick (sorry Andy) by saying you’re going to “pick on someone your own size”. By the way – you are NOT a good Paso choreographer. That point has been made pretty strongly. Too much empty space…and, although not your fault, Zendaya’s age showed in her softer limbs. You should not talk them up ahead of time – it will always come back to bite you.
Karina? Foolish for letting Jacoby pick Jive – a Rumba would have been awesome. Awesomely squicky which would have added a bit of ….something….to tonight. But something tells me that TPTB weren’t going to let that happen. Someone pre-determined that – either the pros or the producers.
Okay, I’m almost done ranting. I do wonder how they will work the cumulative score after this. Are they counting the three points? Because that would hose Kellie and Derek. But since half the cast got hosed last night, may as well include them.
Okay, now the questions: Derek apologized to his grandparents for taking off his shirt and said he didn’t want to – so….that begs the question: Why did he? Are the producers that into it that they asked him to? Also, how badly did they explain this immunity thing to the pros?? Derek looked shocked after the first challenge dance when he heard Tom say that they couldn’t be eliminated. Maybe he was just overly tired (Um, see the video from The W, in addition to his touring with Kellie – LOL), but Mark also looked like he didn’t know what the hell was going on, prior to doing their challenge dance. I sense….weirdness. To say the least.
:::sigh::: Anyway, the leader board looks like this. I left in Kellie and Derek’s score because I think they are likely included in the total since they were points awarded by the judges. I just won’t talk about them in the contest of possible eliminations. If I don’t get too tired, I will look and see what difference those 29 points make in the spread.
So, as you can see, the immunity is likely not the least bit necessary when you have people in the 30’s and Andy with a 17. Kinda ridiculous. As I said in an earlier post about this whole Immunity thing, it’s unlikely that it has any real impact on the top three ladies – the spread is too huge. It’s always possible that Zendaya’s fans aren’t voting in huge numbers, or Kellie/Derek’s fans have said “fuck it” after last season…or that Aly just got started too late…but with a 13 point spread (at minimum), it is unlikely that Andy is a threat to either Zendaya or Aly.
So why do it?? ADHD?? Andy getting too many votes? As I said way back when, I tend to think it has more to do with who’s getting too many votes, not who isn’t getting enough. But I guess you never know.
Anyway, what has to happen for Andy to be safe? He needs ONE of the following things:
– Andy needs 38,100 more votes per million votes cast than Sean, OR;
– Andy needs 43,500 more votes per million votes cast than Ingo, OR;
– Andy needs 54,400 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby, OR;
– Andy needs 70,700 more votes per million votes cast than Zendaya, OR;
– Andy needs 82,000 more votes per million votes cast than Aly.
NOW do you see why the immunity is unnecessary?? Those are HUGE numbers. Seriously, even to get past Sean will be a stretch for Andy. And I think this is what they wanted all along. Sean and Ingo are both family, Jacoby is popular and the ladies can all dance really well. Andy has served his purpose. Next week is week 8 and he’ll be back in week 10. People will barely have time to miss him. Or so they think.
But what if all the Kellie fans who were voting for Andy had an impact? How much danger is Sean in? For Sean to be safe, he needs ONE of the following to happen:
– Sean needs for Andy to NOT get the 38,100 more votes per million votes cast than him, OR;
– Sean needs 5,500 more votes per million votes cast than Ingo, OR;
– Sean needs 16,400 more votes per million votes cast than Jacoby, OR;
– Sean needs 32,700 more votes per million votes cast than Zendaya, OR;
– Sean needs 44,500 more votes per million votes cast than Aly.
Sean and Andy have both been in the bottom two. Sean was in the bottom two with Victor even though Andy had lower score…but Andy only needed 8k votes to get past Sean. This week the spread between Andy and Sean is as large as it was between first and last place last week – that’s huge. We have no idea if Andy has that kind of juice. He did get an assist from Kellie, who asked her fans to vote for him. We’ll see.
It’s going to be either Sean, Andy or Ingo – no question to me. I think it will be Sean and Andy in the bottom two with Andy going home. Ingo could take Sean’s place in the bottom two, if Sean gets the relatively small 5,500 votes he needs to get past Ingo.
But I don’t think Andy makes it past either Sean or Ingo, so he’s headed home. And that makes me sad. This is one of those weeks where I pray I’m wrong.
I think Andy may go home too, Miss. I hope I am wrong as well and it pains me. I know I am going to cry with this elimination if it happens. The judges haven’t given him much room with scores like they gave him. How sad. I would have given his dance 7’s and 8’s. Yes, there may have been some issues with his arms, but, he makes up for it and then some with his entertainment factor. I’ll be jumping for joy if it he somehow makes it and Sean or Ingo go instead.
Great numbers post again. THANKS!
Just out of curiosity…what was the spread between D.L. and the next finisher back in weeks one and two? I know it probably wasn’t even close to being this big but, I mean, come on. If D.L. can stay for that long despite being so unpopular, surely Andy can pull through?
*Trying to be optimistic*
I’ve seen a ton of support for Andy last night & today. I also loved seeing Sharna ticked off for Andy. She’s a firecracker when riled! 🙂
I really hope that Kellie’s fans did vote for Andy and he is called safe tonight with Sean goes home. We’ve had surprise eliminations before so here’s hoping that the viewers rise up and rebel against TPTB! Otherwise this viewer will go back to watching the Voice and Deadliest Catch in real time on Monday/Tuesday nights and depend on Youtube to catch up with my favorites.
This post makes me sad. I gave all my votes to Andy, but I hope other Kellie fans did as well. I think it will be him but I’m really hoping that he’ll make it through.
@Sara- I just looked up the same thing looking for a glimmer of hope- his spread was 17K
I’m not delusional. I know Andy wouldn’t/couldn’t win the Mirror Ball Trophy. That being said when someone like Andy has more entertaining value and in my opinion was the most entertaining Rumba of the night out of the three danced.
I’m sorry, all three were bad Sean improved some yes but he he was overscored. Andy may not be a technical dancer but he’s entertaining and his attitude about the way the judges treat him far outshines what D.L. put off.
I know it doesn’t look good for Andy but this is one time especially I really want the game TPTB like to play to backfire on them. That 17 is obvious what they are playing at and it was really unwarranted.
For me the thing that made me vote for Andy even more was the way the judges treated him. It may not be fair to the other couples that are good dancers but to treat the guy that stands there and is cheering on his competention while they dance the way they do is not cool. Especially when the chosen one that they tried so very hard to show is not the chosen one stands there and looks like she wants to throw a hissy fit.
I thought it was cool that Val chose Jacoby to dance off against instead of the easier options of Sean & Ingo. What am I missing here? I really hope Andy gets to stay. It’s the only reason I’m still watching at this point with Tristan gone again and no Maks.
The spread between DL and those eliminated was 26k and 16k in weeks 1 and 2 respectively. I hope Andy is doing better. Problem is, Sean is also probably doing better than those who were eliminated instead of DL.
@Cara
If Val had chosen Sean or Ingo that means Jacoby would have danced against Sean or Ingo and therefore neither one of them would have recieved three points and Ingo would still have a score of 22, thus making the spread between he and Andy smaller.
So in a way Val screwed Andy without actually dancing against him.
@Kaitlyn and @PH
Damn it.
I just want to say that they USUALLY explain things very badly if at all to the pros, which is why the pros look clueless half the time – because they are. First of all, when Tom speaks to the audience on TV and explains what will happen next week, it’s so loud in the ballroom that there’s no way the pros can hear it. And then during the week, I doubt the pros get told much of anything other than the very basics they need in order to do their job (i.e. learn these 4 dances, you might have to dance off).
IF they do interviews with the pros to have them explain whatever is going to happen to the audience, the pros are just fed lines that they’re supposed to repeat. So they may say a line or two that they’re given, but still have little clue as to what’s going to happen. This becomes obvious when they’re standing on stage and suddenly realize they have to pick a competitor or dance style, and they look surprised.
Ugh. Thanks for the explanation Cher. I hadn’t thought of that. Poor Andy. I think there’ll be tons of tears if he goes. Everyone seems to love him.
I did some “back of the envelope” calculations last night (literally – it *was* on the back of an envelope!) 🙂 I took Kellie’s 29 points out of the overall. IIRC, it increased the number Andy needed to get by Sean to 45K votes per million. So it goes from “ain’t no way” to “ain’t no way in Hell”… 🙁 Based on last week, I’m in the “it will be Sean and Andy” camp, with poor Andy’s ride ending tonight.
Not assuming anything. My gut feels like Zendaya is getting the votes. Ingo, and Sean aren’t. Ingo might be getting more votes than Sean. But, at this point Andy is getting more than them both. If by some chance that FB voting discussion on this site were true. Bet, you anything someone’s votes are going to Sean. I can’t picture Sean having a larger fan base, than Ingo or Andy. Goes back to the question of how many votes are they getting. Out of this fan bases.
For what it’s worth, I think largest margin a couple has ever had to overcome to stick around is somewhere in the neighborhood of 40K per million votes cast – Kurt & Anna during Rock Week in season 11. If I recall, Ralph & Karina also had a pretty big margin to overcome during the quarterfinal week of season 12…30k+ per million votes cast. It’s not LIKELY that Andy can overcome this margin…but it’s also not impossible. 🙂
Not gonna lie, this season is REALLY feeling predetermined. “These are the four we want in our new four-way final, these are the four that are obviously going to be in that final.”
Really hoping Andy can give them a good scare.
The stupid thing about all the manipulation from TPTB is…(in my opinion) they’re trying to solve a problem that doesn’t exist. So they want Zendaya, Kellie, Aly, and Jacoby in the finals. I think most viewers would agree they became the top contenders as soon as Dorothy had to withdraw. All 4 are perfectly capable of getting to the finals on the basis of their dancing. TPTB should be sitting back with a cocktail thinking “life is good” instead of screwing around with immunity and dance-offs.
Well since Kellie was safe, I gave all my votes to Andy. This was so unnecessary, and predetermined. When I saw Zendaya in her tennis shoes before they even announced the dance, it was very telling.
I was turned off from Zendaya wearing tennis shoes too.
When Mark is like broken, why did they make Aly and Mark do the encore? And this is coming from an Aly fan, for all logical purposes Kellie should have done the encore.
I just got to read your post…and I just have to say THANK YOU PH and PURE…I am so glad that we can come here to ponder and VENT! Thanks for doing such a great job!
I am keeping my fingers crossed that the other Kellie/Derek fans joined me in throwing ALL their votes to Andy…to encourage HIM and to tell TPTB – don’t underestimate a mad fan!
PLEASE let the last “in jeopardy” person be SEAN! Just sayin’!
#andyleavesweriot STINK STANK STUNK…am leaving now for the riot path!
[…] Heidi: I thought it would be Andy and Sean in the bottom two with Andy going home. Ingo in the bottom two, if not Sean. […]
I agree with you Tumbles, but it WAS the most exciting and fun dance yesterday, in my opinion.
Why do you suppose that is buttercup? I don’t really understand the point of doing that, I mean the pros have to teach. Are they afraid that they’ll figure out the game and crack wise on it? It’s ridiculous.
I too was turned off by Zen’s tennis shoes, and surprised CAI didn’t call it an unfair advantage, but I guess it doesn’t really matter unless the other celeb in the dance off was another lady wearing heels.
I don’t doubt that the pros are basically never told anything, but I know Derek watches the show back. Then again, when those challenges are first announced, it’s one sentence so even we don’t understand them, then when it happens the next night, they elaborate on what it is…therefore putting EVERYONE on the spot.
@Cidra – I totally agree, there was no way Andy would get into the four-couple finale, because we all knew from Dorothy’s withdrawal which were the top four couples are. The only thing unknown is the final placements.
I wish DWTS would take a leaf out of X Factor’s book and show the vote totals. Or at least if not the exact numbers, just show the RANKING of vote totals. But knowing how TPTB like to dick around, they’d probably fake those too, so we might be better off.
Well, now that we know that in the very few minutes those pairs had to prepare, they did do some preliminary deciding on who they’d pick and what dance they’d do, it’s not so surprising that Zendaya had on sneakers. It was kind of risky as it could have made a negative impression on the judges assuming they (the judges) didn’t already know who they were going to award the points to (ha ha). To be honest, I didn’t really care that she had them. Don’t they sometimes wear sneakers for the jive?
Yeah, Aly says in her blog (I think it was her blog) that they all discussed who wanted to do what beforehand – including Jacoby and Zendaya. Which makes Val’s comments even stupider…and bordering on disingenuous.
Shirley mentioned the same thing, the decisions before hand. But she also said Val probably did mean that and alluded to the longstanding and ongoing competition between certain of the boys. Interestingly, she didn’t really seem put off by the comment as I think she enjoys their competitive spirits. Or at least that’s how I interpreted her comments.