Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, this is going to be a bit different. With the exception of next week, the eliminations are going to be based on a given night’s judges scores and the previous week’s audience votes. As a result, I think Dancing by the Number is going to be a bit more predictive to the following week, as opposed to the following night.  But we’ll have to see how it all plays out. As I’m sitting down to write this, I’m not sure how it’s going to go. And I may do it differently next week. I’m flyin’ by the seat of my pants here. :-)

As I said, next week is supposedly going to be the exception. According to the press release that Vogue posted (probably days ago), the week two elimination is going to take into account the first two weeks of judges scores (50%) and this week’s viewer vote (50%). As a result, what you see now in terms of score could be substantially changed by the time next week rolls around, and the votes are based on what happened this week, so that has to be considered as well.

The immediate problem with this scenario and the longer range prediction that we’ll have to make is that you’re using future dances, as opposed to dances you’ve already seen. For that reason, I’ve taken the time to find out which celebs are doing what dance next week to help with my guessing.  Why? Well, it seems to me that Amber could have trouble with ballroom (who knows, using her as an example) while Bill Nye could excel at something like a Waltz. Knowing what dance they’re going to do should at least be considered when making your guess, in addition to the usual judge’s games.  Below is a list of who’s dancing what and my predicted score. Note, my scores are not like Marianya’s predictions – I’m doing mine based on the dance, the pro partner, how well they did this past week, how I think they’re likely to do based on the dance they’ve been given, ringer status and the judges crack smoking habits. :-)

Next Week’s Dances:

Amber – Jive

Jack – Rumba

Christina – Paso

Bill N. – Paso

Corbin – Jive

Elizabeth – Samba

Bill E. – Jive

Keyshawn – Samba

Brant – Rumba

Leah ??

Valerie ??

Nicole ??

I’m going to say right now that I don’t think it matters what Valerie is dancing, she will get a 21 – and even if she scores lower, she won’t be going anywhere.  Her 21 of this past week should keep her firmly on the ballroom floor, combined with the first week of voting and the emotional angle.

Next, let’s look at the Jive dancers. I’ve always had a suspicion that the producers select the dance styles and then hand them out so that there is a mix of strong and weak dancers with each dance. In this case you have Amber, Corbin and Bill E. Now, I don’t consider any of the three as the “weak” dancer – Bill E would be closest and might be considered cannon fodder by the producers.  It kinda depends on if they give Jive to Leah, Valerie (as if) or Nicole – theoretically, with 12 dancers and four styles you would have three of each style, but the producers can’t have that. We’ll see.  Let’s say they play it logically and these are your three with Jive. I think that Corbin is going to move up the judges list, while Amber moves down a bit. Bill E will also increase his score, but by a smaller margin.  So, I’m predicting Amber 24, Corbin 25 and Bill E. with 19.

The Rumba: Jack and Brant…and I’m guessing Valerie. I just think the producers will take their time giving her a more up tempo dance.  I’ve already said I think that Val will get a 21, regardless, and if she’s lower it won’t matter. I’m betting that Peta turns it on with Brant and that they score well from at least the two most predictable judges.  I think Jack will do alright, actually. I think it will be Brant with 25, Jack with 24, Val with 21.

Next up, the Samba. I’d bet that they add Snookie to the combo of Elizabeth and Keyshawn, just based on personality. I think both Snookie and Elizabeth will kill it while Keyshawn won’t fare quite as well.  I’m going with Elizabeth getting a 26, Snookie a 25 and Keyshawn an 18.

That brings us to Paso, and Christina, Bill N and Leah (I think). Remember, we’re worried about actual score here more than what the dance ends up being.  Mark can choreograph a mean Paso, so I think Christina will kill it, while Leah and Bill won’t fare so well.  Bill has Tyne, who’s not as experienced at ballroom as the others, and Leah has Tony. Tony can do it, but Leah seems like she would be too soft for Paso. And Bill might be too gangly.  I’m going to give Christina a 24 mainly cuz Mark is shooting his mouth off at Len and the judges either go overboard good, or overboard bad when a pro does that. I’m guessing she’ll be underscored a bit again, although 24 in week two is nothing to sneeze at. I’m afraid that Bill improves but only to a 17, while Leah holds steady at 21, whether she deserves it or not.

While most people’s scores increase to some degree in my scenario, the overall effect on the number of votes required for someone to stick around is rather dramatic, especially in the case of Bill Nye. Of course it won’t be this way every week, but every time you add two weeks scores together, it narrows the margins.  First, look at this table that shows the two week’s scores and the resulting percentages:

weeks and percentages

When you divide an individual’s total score by the number of points handed out, you get their percentage of the judges scores. Do the same thing with the viewer votes; the total votes divided into an individual’s votes to get their percentage of the vote. Add those two numbers together and you get their rank. Person with the lowest combined total goes home. Now, the first week’s scores by themselves results in the following vote requirements (number of “votes per million” refers to the number of votes the first person in the pair needs to “beat” the second person in the pair. e.g. Bill N needs 11k to “beat” Keyshawn.):

weeks 1

You’ll see that Bill needs more than 11k per million just to get past Keyshawn and 15k to get past Bill E. Frankly, I think he does that with no problem. If Bill gets past Keyshawn, then Keyshawn needs to beat one person and I’m afraid that person is Bill E. If both Keyshawn and Bill N. are beating Bill E, then he needs to beat someone else.  And based on the Week 1 requirements, I don’t see that happening. But what about the week 2 requirements when both scores are taken into account? See below:

Weeks 1 and 2

The numbers that Bill Nye needs to be safe decrease rather dramatically, increasing his chance, IMO, of sticking around. He needs less than 8k and less than 12k to beat Keyshawn and Bill E, respectively, and I’m guessing he does that just on his fanbase.  Who, between Keyshawn and Bill E will go home? I’m guessing Bill E. based solely on name recognition or lack thereof.  Could all three men beat someone above them for a “shocking elimination?? I don’t think so this week.  I think the two or three most likely candidates for shocking eliminations are Christina, Elizabeth and MAYBE Leah. Brant might go sooner than he should, but that’s not really all that shocking since no one really knows him the way the other three are known.  I think Christina and Elizabeth are too far out of reach for Bill E this week. Leah is closer, but he would need close to 10k votes per million votes cast to get past her. I don’t see that happening.

I think they call Bill Nye safe first, then Keyshawn and Bill E are the bottom two with Bill E, sadly, going home. As always, I could be wrong.

P.S. If anyone has trouble understanding this the way I’ve explained it, say so. I will try to be more clear in the next week. :-)