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Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers

This week, I saw lots of questions about Bill Nye’s departure from the show. Some said there was no way that others got more votes than him. To which I responded, “they didn’t have to, Bill could get more votes and still be eliminated if he didn’t cover the spread.” This is the thing that continually gets lost no matter how many times I write these numbers posts. Bill Nye was WAY below the next highest scorer, so HE had to make up lots of votes in order to stick around.

I saw some comments saying it was “fishy”. Was it fishy? Well, it certainly could be, depending on your perspective. I mean, really, Brant got a 27? I don’t think so, in a real world. There is no way he did a better job dancing than so many couples. But he most likely was in danger of leaving and was, thus, overscored to protect him from Bill Nye. You overscore Brant and make sure others who might not be getting the votes have enough of a lead on Bill Nye and it’s perfectly plausible that Bill goes home. How did the night stack up once all was said and done?? See below.

Table 1

Looking at that table, it seems to me that Brant was grossly overscored and Christina was overscored a bit, relative to Amber. Is it a coincidence that two people likely at risk due to Bill Nye but who are good dancers are overscored? I don’t think so. I think Liz is also in potential danger, but she danced very well, so I wouldn’t say she was overscored. Bill’s low score gives her breathing room. The people in danger, IMO, are scored high enough to put them out of reach, those who are getting votes are getting more realistic scores. Just my speculation. So, what did Bill Nye have to do to actually stay on the show and how did others have to do in terms of votes to be safe? See below. Read more..

October 5, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing With The Stars Season 17 Las Vegas Odds For Week 4

The new Las Vegas Odds have been posted at Sports Bovada!! They are still picking Corbin Bleu for the win with Amber Riley close behind! Also, check out how they’ve tied Christina Milian and Elizabeth Berkley for 3rd. Give it up for Snooki as she has raised up the ladder the most compared to last week’s odds. But geez, if they can bet on Snooki, why not Bill Engvall too who they have placed last again. 8O I sometimes don’t understand the odds makers?

Corbin Bleu 7/4
Amber Riley 5/2
Christina Milan 6/1
Elizabeth Berkley 6/1
Snooki 10/1
Brant Daugherty 12/1
Jack Osbourne 12/1
Leah Remini 16/1
Valerie Harper 66/1
Bill Engvall 100/1

Below are last week’s odds:

Corbin Bleu 2/1
Amber Riley 7/2
Christina Milan 7/2
Elizabeth Berkley 13/2
Jack Osbourne 10/1
Brant Daugherty 12/1
Leah Remini 12/1
Snooki 12/1
Bill Nye 50/1
Valerie Harper 50/1
Bill Engvall 100/1

So, what do you think? Do you agree with the odds makers this time? Let us know in comments and let’s see what Heidi and Court think too…..

Courtney: Do they REALLY still think Valerie has a better chance of winning than Bill??? After this week??? I’d say the hammer kinda dropped on Valerie and Bill had a breakthrough week – I would think Bill’s stock would have gone up and Valerie’s would have plummeted to the bottom.  God bless Valerie, she’s a joy and an inspiration to watch, but I think we’ve seen the best we’re going to see out of her – and even if she’s getting a ton of votes, if she’s also getting scores in the teens, her days are likely numbered on this show. Bill only seems to be gaining popularity & improving his scores – and while I wouldn’t put it past The Three Stooges/The Men Upstairs to try and backdoor Bill in order to save a dubious vote-getter (but better dancer) like Elizabeth, Christina, or Brant, I like to think they’re perhaps starting to see the value in keeping Bill around.  Glad Snooki managed to leapfrog over Brant, but I don’t agree with Jack dropping – he had an off-week, yes, but I think Brant’s popularity is going to be rather fleeting – while Jack will likely have an appealing growth arc that peaks later this season, when it really counts.  Not even gonna comment on the top 2 – already beginning to tire of the “Is it going to be Corbin or Amber who wins???” debate.  And I think the oddsmakers are smoking crack if they think Elizabeth or Christina’s odds of winning are that good – particularly the former, who still seems to be failing to connect with viewers.

Heidi: Let me answer it for you, Courtney – Amber isn’t going to win. :-) I love Amber.  I love her personality, I love her work ethic, I love her relationship with Derek…but I don’t believe she will win. She was dancing in low heels because she rolled her ankle, and now she’s having knee problems. Corbin may not be as popular from a fanbase standpoint, but he’s going to have the judges on his side. And how can he not? He and Elizabeth are the ringers of the season and he isn’t lacking the personality like Elizabeth is. I think, as long as Amber doesn’t seriously injure herself, the top 2 is probably right.  I will be VERY disappointed if Bill and Snookie aren’t the next two in the line up. And I don’t think it’s out of the question. Liz and Christina might be ringers, but Snookie and Bill have heart and personality in spades. Not to mention their relationships with their partners.  I still believe that either Christina or Liz (but probably not both) is going to be eliminated by week 6 or 7.  This, of course, all depends on how heavy handed the judges are going to get to try to keep the better dancers around. They need to be careful though, or people will see the man behind the curtain, especially if Snookie and Bill continue to improve. I think Brant and Jack are up there after Snookie and Bill. The woman left standing after either Liz or Christina (leaning toward Christina at this point) is eliminated will likely snag 3rd or 4th place, shuffling the rest down a slot.  :-)

I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.