Dancing With The Stars Season 17 Las Vegas Odds For Week 4
The new Las Vegas Odds have been posted at Sports Bovada!! They are still picking Corbin Bleu for the win with Amber Riley close behind! Also, check out how they’ve tied Christina Milian and Elizabeth Berkley for 3rd. Give it up for Snooki as she has raised up the ladder the most compared to last week’s odds. But geez, if they can bet on Snooki, why not Bill Engvall too who they have placed last again. 😯 I sometimes don’t understand the odds makers?
Corbin Bleu 7/4
Amber Riley 5/2
Christina Milan 6/1
Elizabeth Berkley 6/1
Snooki 10/1
Brant Daugherty 12/1
Jack Osbourne 12/1
Leah Remini 16/1
Valerie Harper 66/1
Bill Engvall 100/1
Below are last week’s odds:
Corbin Bleu 2/1
Amber Riley 7/2
Christina Milan 7/2
Elizabeth Berkley 13/2
Jack Osbourne 10/1
Brant Daugherty 12/1
Leah Remini 12/1
Snooki 12/1
Bill Nye 50/1
Valerie Harper 50/1
Bill Engvall 100/1
So, what do you think? Do you agree with the odds makers this time? Let us know in comments and let’s see what Heidi and Court think too…..
Courtney: Do they REALLY still think Valerie has a better chance of winning than Bill??? After this week??? I’d say the hammer kinda dropped on Valerie and Bill had a breakthrough week – I would think Bill’s stock would have gone up and Valerie’s would have plummeted to the bottom. God bless Valerie, she’s a joy and an inspiration to watch, but I think we’ve seen the best we’re going to see out of her – and even if she’s getting a ton of votes, if she’s also getting scores in the teens, her days are likely numbered on this show. Bill only seems to be gaining popularity & improving his scores – and while I wouldn’t put it past The Three Stooges/The Men Upstairs to try and backdoor Bill in order to save a dubious vote-getter (but better dancer) like Elizabeth, Christina, or Brant, I like to think they’re perhaps starting to see the value in keeping Bill around. Glad Snooki managed to leapfrog over Brant, but I don’t agree with Jack dropping – he had an off-week, yes, but I think Brant’s popularity is going to be rather fleeting – while Jack will likely have an appealing growth arc that peaks later this season, when it really counts. Not even gonna comment on the top 2 – already beginning to tire of the “Is it going to be Corbin or Amber who wins???” debate. And I think the oddsmakers are smoking crack if they think Elizabeth or Christina’s odds of winning are that good – particularly the former, who still seems to be failing to connect with viewers.
Heidi: Let me answer it for you, Courtney – Amber isn’t going to win. 🙂 I love Amber.  I love her personality, I love her work ethic, I love her relationship with Derek…but I don’t believe she will win. She was dancing in low heels because she rolled her ankle, and now she’s having knee problems. Corbin may not be as popular from a fanbase standpoint, but he’s going to have the judges on his side. And how can he not? He and Elizabeth are the ringers of the season and he isn’t lacking the personality like Elizabeth is. I think, as long as Amber doesn’t seriously injure herself, the top 2 is probably right.  I will be VERY disappointed if Bill and Snookie aren’t the next two in the line up. And I don’t think it’s out of the question. Liz and Christina might be ringers, but Snookie and Bill have heart and personality in spades. Not to mention their relationships with their partners.  I still believe that either Christina or Liz (but probably not both) is going to be eliminated by week 6 or 7.  This, of course, all depends on how heavy handed the judges are going to get to try to keep the better dancers around. They need to be careful though, or people will see the man behind the curtain, especially if Snookie and Bill continue to improve. I think Brant and Jack are up there after Snookie and Bill. The woman left standing after either Liz or Christina (leaning toward Christina at this point) is eliminated will likely snag 3rd or 4th place, shuffling the rest down a slot.  🙂
I guess none of these oddmakers actually watch the show. If they did they might know what it takes to go far on the show.
I think the top 2 are probably right, but I also think that Bill should have moved up…. I think as Heidi stated, that Bill and Nicole may be the surprise celebs to nab some of the upper spots.
At the end of the night Elizabeth and Christina are long forgotten, heck, the only thing I remember about Christina was Marks clown face.
bill should definitely be higher i gave him some of my votes cause he is so cool 🙂 christina should definitely not be in the top 3 i also think there a big chance that she will leave for me it’s between her and valerie this week
i think elizabeth and brant have both some weeks left i just wonder if they will try to protect them or not
still think corbin won’t win ;
I agree with Heidi, Amber has everything basically going for her, but I don’t see her winning. Corbin is good, but I’m getting tired of Karina throwing in everything she can in every dance they’ve done so far. Maybe he can’t dance the slower dances as well and she feels she needs to do what she can now. I don’t know. He’s her dream partner and she wants to win so badly with him, that it could start to seem desperate and that always makes me turn away from a pair.
I’m finding it very interesting that Elizabeth and Christina are placed so high when in the survey that was done here, they were hardly mentioned as anyone’s top 3. The last time I looked I think Christina had been mentioned twice and Elizabeth once which tells me that people are not finding them interesting for whatever reason. I will be surprised if one isn’t gone by at least the halfway point, if not sooner, and the other to follow not long after. I believe it’s going to take such blatant manipulation to keep them after that point. And the more blatant it is, the more viewers are turned off. We all know it happens, we just have to wait and see how much more obvious TPTB will be with it.
I love Bill and Snooki and would like to see them both get close to or in the semi finals. They have both been such a surprise to watch. I groaned when I heard they were on, but now find myself enjoying their dances each week. They both are happy to be there, enjoying it, working hard at it and have a good relationship with their partners.
I wouldn’t be upset if Leah or Brant left this week. Valerie may have one more week in her, but I don’t see her staying beyond that. But it has been wonderful watching her and Tristan dance and forming a relationship that they will probably keep. Tristan truly is a special guy and his fiance is a very lucky woman.
I wanted to add that I would be thrilled for Bill and/or Snooki to make it to the finals. It would be nice to see two couples that weren’t given a chance to win get to that point. They both have the potential if they keep improving each week. As much as I like Derek and Karina and wouldn’t mind if they won either, I would love to see a “dark horse” win more.
I think Corbin and Karina can win as long as she doesn’t keep pushing the choreography too much. She should know by now that the judges have never, EVER rewarded one of her good partners for doing extra difficult choreography. They will reward other pro’s partners for doing really difficult choreography, but never hers, for whatever reason.
The general audience can’t tell the difference between a level 8 dance and a level 10, and if the judges aren’t giving them scores that reflect the heightened difficulty there’s no benefit in her risking the more difficult choreography. If her partner can dance a level 8 cleanly, she should stick with the level 8. The audience will vote more for a cleanly danced level 8 dance than a level 10 with a little bobble or minor form problem.
I work in a huge high school and all these teens watch Glee, Pretty Little Liars and grew up watch High School Musical movies and some know Saved By the Bell. They always talk about DWTS and the Voice too. I would say 98% of what I hear is that they are voting for Amber. (I asked for reasons and I was told: #1 Glee, #2Happy for a heavier girl to be dancing so well, #3 she’s black, and a black woman has never won). During gym I mentioned Amber’s knee problem and Derek’s blog saying they hadn’t rehearsed. They basically said if Amber is out they would vote for Brant (PLL, he’s hot, etc). I asked about Corbin and most commented that HSM is yesterday, PLL is today. Hmmmm. They don’t connect with Elizabeth at all. When I asked who would they all vote for if Brant was eliminated….Christina. I just found it interesting and wanted to share what feedback I rec’d.
I, of course, tried to push them to Corbin’s corner LOL!!! We’ll see (:
Fascinating, Sheery!!
You know, I was debating and debating on publicly posting my thoughts on Amber & Derek winning this thing since Tuesday and this is gonna seem late now but here goes.
I totally see Amber garnering huge public support for reasons finally mentioned. In addition to her personality/performing charisma/energy – there is a large vote for her because she’s Black, plus-sized and some Glee specific factors. I realize it’s not PC to mention the first two but man are they influencing scoring! I clearly saw what everyone else did, her opening week cha cha was dynamic and a huge surprise. She looked like a goddess! I don’t know if it was THE best dance of the night, both Contemporaries were interesting introductions to those couples but unfortunately lively music & sexy moves or at least booty shaking >>>>>>slow music & drama. And of course order and the overall high scores resulted in Amber and Derek opening with a 27. But can they realistically keep to that level when the highest is 30? I don’t see it.
I have watched Glee for years and follow the antics of the young and cute cast. And as someone who did traditional Irish dancing for years, I greatly enjoy watching choreographed dancing. I knew what CAI finally pointed out in week 3 for years! Amber is strong in the trunk and favors trunk and upper body movement in dance. If she’s not pushed, she’ll stand in place and not even move her feet while “dancing!” When she has been in group numbers with footwork and traversing the floor, she lags her co-stars. And her character usually wore flats or sneakers. When Amber did wear heels on Glee for performances, they don’t usually show her feet when she’s traversing the floor. And of course, there’s next to no closed hold or formal dancing on Glee.
Now I’m not disparaging Amber’s desire or ability to learn. But to my eyes, her first 3 numbers were very similar and of course, the always brilliant Derek Hough is showcasing her strengths. I expect Amber’s biggest asset, her showmanship, will stand her well through all numbers. But as someone who watches primarily foot and leg work, high scores weren’t very warranted here. I don’t expect her to see 27 again for several weeks as the judges get serious and raise their expectations. In the meantime, Amber has to push herself on skills that aren’t natural to her and 4 years of dancing on Glee didn’t give her. So unless the judges continue to give her extra credit for dancing while being rather overweight I don’t see Amber & Derek at the top of the judges leader board.
As far as winning the contest, I expect Amber to continue to garner audience votes. Possibly more as the judges will be seen as unfair when she doesn’t get more 27’s. But my prediction is, she’ll withdraw with an injury before the finals. Just wish I’d said it out loud before the info about her knees, which I didn’t know until yesterday. LOL!
With a lot of fog still filling my crystal ball, this is what I see right now: 😉
Corbin
Amber
Nicole
Christina
Brant
Bill
Jack
Elizabeth
Leah
Valerie
For me, Valerie is the wild card. If she continue to get a ton of votes but isn’t dancing well, how low will the judges score her? Will TPTB be willing to eliminate her or do they see value in keeping her under the assumption that her inspiring story is a ratings draw?
Sheery, thanks for sharing the youth perspective. If TPTB are paying attention, I can definitely see them shoving Bill under the bus to protect Brant, and tossing Elizabeth under there with him to protect Christina. Unless Amber has to withdraw because of her knees, I’m beginning to think she (rather than Corbin) is the shoo-in for the finals regardless of how much or little dancing she does with her legs.
# ShamelessHussy
i don’t agree with your points ;
everybody has a story valerie has cancer , leah run out from scientology …
amber wants the girls her size to be comfortable dancing i don’t find it the most powerful story line here and i don’t care that she’s black
for me what sold it is two things glee (i’m a fan ) and her personality
i think that’s the two factors has given her an edge (her dancing of course)
for her feets definitely she has to work on it like everybody else and i tend to look at an dance as a whole not just the feets , and for the dances looking the same the fact that she got 3 upbeat dances in a row ,the energy level as to be high
we’ll see for the tango don’t think she will withdraw tho 😉
I think in terms of the youth perspective, there are different generations of voters. Youth who are in high school (at least the female voters) will probably vote for Brant because PLL is such a relevant show as well as Glee.
I guess “my generation” — 20 to 25ish — who grew up around the High School Musical era would support Corbin.
But then there are younger viewers as well that watched Jersey Shore from the beginning, I know when the show first came out, everyone from my high school watched it and were obsessed with Snooki
Amber I think will have a larger fan base in comparison to most of the contestants this season because again, Glee is such a relevant show and also because of her “story” of being a plus-size (or real size) woman who is dancing.
I think Brant is getting votes but not to the extreme others are. I think that yes, the younger viewers may vote for him but I don’t know what the actual demographic of DWTS are because the younger viewers (more particular younger voters) may be a small percentage of the actual numbers. I personally am a HUGE PLL fan but he’s not my first choice to vote for, plus the “showmance” thing got old fast which turned me off. Nothing against him but, I’d rather vote for Corbin, Amber and Snooki.
Jessica, You make a good point that the “youth vote” is not a homogenous group, anymore than the “women’s vote” or the “black vote” or the “AARP vote”. However, from what you and Sheery said, it reinforces TPTB’s desire to manipulate things to keep Brant and Christina at the expense of Bill. *sob*
On a side note and at the risk of stirring up a hornet’s nest, I do think Amber qualifies as a “plus size” woman. “Real size” to me should mean the weight that is healthy for an individual’s height and frame. Even though she’s apparently worked hard to shed a number of pounds, Amber is still carrying more weight than is healthy for her. We’re never going to get this country’s weight problem (both obesity and underweight) under control if we talk about women who are Amber’s weight as “real size”. Neither she nor the legion of underweight celebs that grace the red carpet are “real size”. [In the spirit of full disclosure, I’m overweight. Didn’t used to be, but I am now.]
@Cidra – Bite your tongue… Bill’s isn’t going anywhere this week. 🙂 *Fingerscrossed*.
Well keeping all the young-ins on the show isn’t always a good idea either. I personally like who I like, No matter what age they are.
I have never watched an episode of GLEE nor have I ever seen HSM.
“[In the spirit of full disclosure, I’m overweight. Didn’t used to be, but I am now.]”…. Me too Cidra!
It’s word selection, Cidra. “Real” to me indicates the reality of this country. I don’t think the work “real” implies that it’s healthy. Just that it’s what a large percentage of the country fits into.
Sorry, Sandy, guess I’m feeling a bit pessimistic after PH’s numbers pretty much confirmed what we all suspected. We know it won’t be a one-time thing. However, I promise I’ll start thinking positive thoughts from now on.
Yeah, I vote for whomever I like as well, but I believe that independence is the result of age and experience. Young ones, particularly high school and college age, are a lot more likely to be influenced by what their cohort finds popular and acceptable.
Yeah, PH, but we have to fight against that particular reality. I’m afraid if we accept being overweight as the norm, we won’t feel any great urgency to try to do something about it. Inertia sets in, “yeah, I know I’m overweight, but so is a large percentage of the country; so it’s not that big of a deal.”
I would really like these Las Vegas odds makers to pull their heads out of their butts.
Elizabeth and Christina are too high, and Bill is too low.
Lack of chemistry with their partners is really pulling the ladies down, while whiz bang adorable chemistry is pushing Bill higher.
I think you’re confusing “reality” with “normal”. They aren’t necessarily the same and “reality” doesn’t imply inaction on the subject.
Could be, PH, but I think that’s one of the problems with the PC terms we’ve come up with. At the end of the day I think I prefer plain speaking, and it can be done in a way that isn’t hurtful or demeaning.
Sorry for dragging this thread off topic.
I (as Amber put it) am not a size 6 either. I am glad Amber is doing well. Love to see her energy. I was afraid she would have trouble sustaining it throughout the dances.
I’m starting to wonder if either Elizabeth or Christina will make the finals – looking at the comments on the poll of favorite couples, I think they might appear the least. Add to that Bill and Nicole are among the most mentioned couples (neither of whom are on the “best dancer” list), along with Corbin and Amber (who could possibly make that list), and I don’t know that we’ll see either of them take it all the way. And Bill, Nicole, Brant and Jack all are better dancers than people expected – and all of them have more personality than Christina and Elizabeth combined (maybe Brant doesn’t – but the others do) and that they have better connections with their partners, and I think one or more “shocking” eliminations might be on the way. I’m not really sure if Brant will outlast them or not; it kind of depends on the strength of the PLL vote and the “eye candy” vote.
I do think that Bill shouldn’t be at the bottom of the list; I was *very* heartened to see how many people put Bill and Emma in their top favorites, and I’m hoping they’re all voting for him – I know I am!