Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers
This week, I saw lots of questions about Bill Nye’s departure from the show. Some said there was no way that others got more votes than him. To which I responded, “they didn’t have to, Bill could get more votes and still be eliminated if he didn’t cover the spread.” This is the thing that continually gets lost no matter how many times I write these numbers posts. Bill Nye was WAY below the next highest scorer, so HE had to make up lots of votes in order to stick around.
I saw some comments saying it was “fishy”. Was it fishy? Well, it certainly could be, depending on your perspective. I mean, really, Brant got a 27? I don’t think so, in a real world. There is no way he did a better job dancing than so many couples. But he most likely was in danger of leaving and was, thus, overscored to protect him from Bill Nye. You overscore Brant and make sure others who might not be getting the votes have enough of a lead on Bill Nye and it’s perfectly plausible that Bill goes home. How did the night stack up once all was said and done?? See below.
Looking at that table, it seems to me that Brant was grossly overscored and Christina was overscored a bit, relative to Amber. Is it a coincidence that two people likely at risk due to Bill Nye but who are good dancers are overscored? I don’t think so. I think Liz is also in potential danger, but she danced very well, so I wouldn’t say she was overscored. Bill’s low score gives her breathing room. The people in danger, IMO, are scored high enough to put them out of reach, those who are getting votes are getting more realistic scores. Just my speculation. So, what did Bill Nye have to do to actually stay on the show and how did others have to do in terms of votes to be safe? See below.
Now, Bill and Valerie needed more than 23k votes per million votes cast EACH in order to beat the spread with Jack and to stay safe. Bill did not do that. I think that Jack is getting plenty of votes and was, therefore, scored more realistically than some. Valerie is likely getting plenty of votes, but she only needed one more vote per million votes cast in order to beat Bill. I don’t see that being a problem. So, if Bill can’t beat Valerie and he can’t beat Jack’s spread that brings him to Bill E, Amber and Leah. In order for Bill Nye to stay, he has to get at least 31,373 more votes per million votes cast than one of them. Clearly, he didn’t do that. Totally not surprising that he can’t beat the spread on Amber and Leah, very heartening that he can’t beat the spread on Bill E. That’s a pretty high number of votes that Bill Nye had to get, but not unrealistic. The number of votes needed only goes up from there, with everyone well insulated. Just look at what Bill Nye needed to beat Brant, one of the relative unknowns on the cast – 43,137 votes per million votes cast. Now does Brant’s score make more sense? He’s cute, he doesn’t suck, but he’s not well known and Bill Nye is getting a ton of votes….what do you do? You make sure that Brant’s score is high enough that Bill doesn’t take him out. Especially since Bill Nye couldn’t really dance with his injury and wasn’t going to drop out – how much would it suck to get taken out by a non-dancing Bill Nye after proving to be a decent dancer?? A LOT. 🙂
The only thing in question, really, is the scoring of Brant. Bill’s score was fair, all things considered, and he didn’t have the juice to beat any of the well protected celebs.
But now, Bill Nye has been eliminated. That means all bets are off. This week will be interesting in terms of seeing who the judges feel needs to stick around. The thing that I wonder is: what will be their motivation from here on out? Will they go for the easy elimination in Valerie?? Or will they let the chips fall. I’m guessing that they will score Valerie appropriately and possibly overscore some of the more vulnerable celebs to keep them out of harms way. Again. 🙂
The problem is – Julianne could be a wild card. I doubt very much they’re going to tell her in a meeting, “Hey, we need you to give Brant and Liz decent scores so Val’s fanbase doesn’t take them out.” I tend to think this happens to the regular judges (or they just figure it out on their own and over drinks in their trailer come up with a plan of sorts), but I don’t see it going that way with Julianne. I think she’s going to give scores she thinks appropriate, so this could be interesting. I think she will want to be harder on Derek and Mark to try to avoid the cries of “bias” – but Amber is hurt and only started practicing on Friday so it may not be too tough. What about the rest of them? What are they dancing and how well do you think they’ll do with it?
Elizabeth – Argentine Tango
Corbin – Paso Doble
Amber – Tango
Brant – Salsa
Bill – Samba
Christina – Foxtrot
Jack – Quickstep
Nicole – Jive
Leah – Cha Cha Cha
Valerie – as usual we have no idea 🙂
Who are the winners and losers in the dance assignments? Exactly who you’d expect: Liz, Corbin and Christina. The jury is out on Amber and Tango, particularly with her injury. Brant? Can the boy move his hips? Bill got a pretty hard dance so he might be in trouble. I think Jack will probably be okay with his quickstep and Leah was given a gift with Cha Cha – they’ve already learned basic steps for the group dances, no? Snicole and the Jive….hmmmm. She’s young, little and motivated. I’m hoping that it will be very good. Valerie, I’m afraid, will dance like the 74 year old that she is, but probably has at least one more week in her. Okay, time for my predictions.
As you can see, I think:
– Elizabeth gets a near perfect score on Argentine Tango. She’s a ringer and it’s arguably the flashiest of the dances of the night, along with the Paso.
– Corbin is right on her tail with the other flashy dance, the Paso.
– I think Christina will prove to be a better ballroom dancer than Latin and will do a great job on foxtrot.
– I think Leah has an advantage with Cha Cha and will do well.
– I think Brant and Bill are going to have hip trouble that has nothing to do with arthritis.
– Amber’s knee and the lack of rehearsal (and choreography) until Friday is likely going to cost her.
– I think Jack and Snookie continue their slow creep upward in scores, although Snicole should be moving up quicker, IMO. Question is, can they creep up fast enough to out run Valerie, who could get by based on week 3 voting.
None of this is guaranteed of course, but let’s say I’m close – within a point or so on many of the couples. Valerie will likely be at the bottom and she’ll have to hope that last weeks votes are enough to counteract this weeks scores of her dance and the other dancers. What kind of votes would she and the others need if this comes to pass? See below.
Now, I made the table comparing the dancers to the people above them in scores a lot longer this week because it has the potential to be interesting. For those not clear on what this table represents, a quick explanation: I take the lowest scoring dancer and systematically compare them to each dancer with a higher score. You subtract their percentage of the vote from each of the dancers above them to get the “difference.” That percentage difference times 1 million is how many votes per million votes cast the lower dancer needs to “beat” the higher dancer. Clear as mud?
As shown above, Valerie needs roughly 16,400 and 24,600 more votes per million votes cast to stay over Bill and Amber, respectively. Since she’s relying on last weeks votes (possibly cast prior to Valerie “fatigue”), I think she might not beat Amber, but possibly beats Bill and Brant, and maybe Snookie. Very hard to tell who’s getting the votes right now. It’s possible that the audience believed the judges regarding Brant and he got enough votes.
Look at that table above, section by section, and remember a dancer only has to do better than ONE other dancer in order to be safe. Here’s what I see:
– Valerie beats Bill.
– Bill *possibly* beats Brant, Jack and/or Snicole.
– Amber beats Brant, Jack, Snicole, maybe Christina, and Valerie and Bill can’t cover the spread.
– Jack beats Snicole, but Brant doesn’t.
I think those assumptions leave Valerie, Bill and Brant as the bottom three, with either Brant or Bill going home.
I could be wrong, of course. All of my predictions rely on what I think they’ll do score-wise. With Julianne in there as a wild card, and Bruno and CAI always being wild (not to mention blind to the faults of some but not others), it’s even more difficult to predict that normal. Keep in mind that if Bill does much better than I expect, and Brant does as well, Valerie could be going home. If Amber does worse than I expect due to her knee, she and Valerie could go head to head. If any of the uninjured ringers (Corbin, Elizabeth, Christina) have a bad night?? All bets are off.
We find out Monday!! Discuss.
I am much in your debt for running the numbers for all of us. Math is not my forte. I think Monday will be an interesting night. As a Valerie fan, I hope she gets Ballroom and can pull off a 21. Julianne’s presence , I agree, will help with fairer scoring. She won’t be playing the games that TPTB are and, in my opinion, that can only be a good thing. I think it could be Leah going home this week. Unlike the judges, I didn’t think her Samba was that good and that the Latin dances might give her trouble. With the head judge missing, things could be interesting in a good way. Time will tell.
I was thinking the same thing with Julianne being a whole guest judge there not going to sit her down and tell her what to score the celebs to make sure certain ones stay in the game.
I think last monday might of proved they want Brant to stick around, if he keeps bringing in the lowest amount of votes hopefully they’ll get the hint not enough people want to see him dance and let him go.
I hope your right about Jack getting scored the way he was because hes getting enough votes because I fear this week he could be sent packing, leah maybe she has a bigger fanbase than I think or elizabeth even if she is a really good dancer, I think being in the bottom three week one was a warning sign and I dont see why the tptb would want to keep her theres plenty of other good dancers on this season that are more exciting.
If it’s between Brant and Bill like you’ve think, then I think it’ll be Brant going home. I really think Bill is becoming a favorite, which I hope means he is starting to get a lot more votes.
Am I confused by the top table? I thought the last 3 standing were Christina and Mark, Brant and Peta, and Bill N. and Tyne.
I am hoping that Bill has been gaining in fan support enough to stick around for a while. I will be completely devastated if Bill and Emma are sent packing.
And as much as I love Valerie, I think it’s probably time for her to go.
Yikes, Bill has the samba? That’s not good. I was hoping for a dance he had a better chance with so he could possibly stick around another couple of weeks. I just can’t picture him doing the samba well, but hopefully I’ll be proven wrong.
Very interesting as always.
I’m still at a loss how the judges could over score Leah and Brant like that? I mean….Brant danced better than the previous week, but, 9’s? I don’t think so. Same with Leah and her 8’s. Heidi, you are so right about how the judges “protecting” (or being blind? lol) can cause an elimination.
Anyway, such fascinating numbers post as always. I’m worried the most on Valerie, but, I hope she’s the comeback kid. Oh, how I wish it were Leah to go next. If it’s between Bill and Brant, I hope it’s Brant to go home too.
great point of view hope that bill can stay around i like him
i don’t know why but i have a feeling that christina will go this week or maybe valerie
if we have shady notes monday we will know who they are trying to protect
As usual great job PH. These are fascinating numbers.
I do believe Julianne will be very fair and not fall into the other two’s “weird” scoring/protective coverings ways. Brant’s 27 last week was ridiculous and was very “telling”.
I hope Amber’s knees are okay and they can do an “okay” tango.
I also worry about Valerie – age and health – I would so love to see her do a waltz with Tristan.
Monday could be interesting.
Thank you Heidi! I really, really love these posts.
Dang! Honestly, I want Valerie to go home because the one I wouldn’t mind not seeing again is Leah and she’s not in danger this week. Of your estimation that the bottom 3 are Valerie, Bill and Brant, I’m really enjoying Bill! I don’t want him to go yet in order for a “National Treasure’ to stumble smilingly though another dance or two! And Brant is more enjoyable to watch for me too.
I’d let Valerie have this dance and a standing ovation when they eliminate her. Then let her do a showcase dance of some sort late in the season.
Thanks PH for this post, I found it very interesting. I agree, Brant and Leah were overscored. I don’t get the draw of either one of them and wouldn’t be upset if one of them went home. I think Valerie has one more week left and then will go.
I’m so tired of hearing how great Elizabeth is. I don’t care for her or Val and I’m at the point already where I’ll be leaving the room when they come on. She’s getting hyped like Zendaya was, and I can’t watch or listen to that again. And I’m sticking to my belief that she’s gone mid-point or before.
I hope Bill makes it through. I want to continue seeing him dance! He’s going to do his daughter proud on her wedding day. Can’t you imagine their father/daughter dance?
PH, great numbers, and what a way with words…I think Brant and Bill are going to have hip trouble that has nothing to do with arthritis. 😀
This might be the only laugh I get from that. I think TPTB are setting Bill up to fail by giving him Samba. I fully expect CAI and Bruno to overscore Brant and throw Bill under the bus to save the pretty boy from “Pretty Little Liars”. Nothing against Brant, but he and Peta’s tepid showmance pales in comparison to the genuine charm of Bill and Emma’s partnership.
Sharon, from the list of dances PH put up for Monday, it looks like everyone has something different. So it’s possible we will see a Waltz from Valerie and Tristan.
They were, Sandy. I colored wrong. 🙂
And I thought I read somewhere that Brant might be shirtless on Monday night. Barf!!!
Honestly though I have a feeling we are losing a lady this week.
I agree Sandy. And it would suit me since I’d like it to be Valerie now. (Or Leah ’cause I don’t like her whine!) So far they are down 2 guys and the only strong contender who is male is Corbin. Does that matter?
I’m so highly amused by all of your consternation at the control machinations of TPTB. I’m not fazed. In fact, I find it nearly as interesting as the dancing itself. Of course they need to have power! It’s their multi million (or billion) dollar franchise! They choose the mix of celebrities, the format, the order they appear in, the styles of dance, the music. I’m sure ABC and the producers have a team analyzing numbers all the time. And they try to figure in elements we don’t. Like audience that watch but don’t vote. What various contestants mean to those companies that by commercials within the show. They probably have a mix of demographics that they want represented. And there are things like contestants being followed on blogs, invited to talk shows, generating buzz that might go beyond scores and voting.
Plus, it seems like you want the “voters” to have more power. Do you know there are numbers of people not watching, only voting for a particular celebrity, come what may? And what about those who “power vote?” Do certain celebrities garner more “absentee and power voters” than others? Is it fair that the winner could be someone who isn’t close to the best dancer/performer?
I’m not sure who you’re talking to, shamelessHussy, but I suggest you stop placing a particular emotion on comments of people you don’t know. I could do the same to your comment and I guarantee you wouldn’t like it. The word condescending comes to mind….
“Power to the People!” LOL
ShamelessHussy, It warms my heart that you find us amusing. 🙄 If you want an even bigger laugh, visit the ABC board. 😈 May I just say, you’re kind of late to the game. Those of us who’ve been following DWTS for years and are regulars here have beaten each other up (er, discussed) all the issues you just raised. You obviously weren’t here during “Palin-gate” (ugh!).
You asked, “Is it fair that the winner could be someone who isn’t close to the best dancer/performer? Life isn’t “fair”. Deal with it. However, to set your mind at ease, if you look at the past 16 seasons, the winner has always been one of the better dancers/performers.
Of course the rumor is Brant is going shirtless, and I agree with Sandy, ick! I’m betting Val is shirtless or has an unbuttoned shirt on and that is also ick! Peta choreographed one of her best dances last week that we’ve seen from her in a long time and the shirt stayed on. Yes, I know, these people are good looking and they’re in shape. They should be with the hours they put in dancing. I would just rather see someone looking great in a full costume than having the girls in skimpy outfits and the guys shirtless.
I agree Cindy. I remember one season on premiere night Val came down the stairs shirtless, I thought that was rude and classless. At least save it for the dance, if necessary.
Anymore any shirtless male dancer just grosses me out. Sorry ladies!
Shameless…is this your first and last post here? 😮
I’m sorry Leah I think is what the show is all about she improves week to week that’s what this show is about. Leah is a real girl not one of these fake girls that you see on this show all the time. She as proven her self more then anyone, get better week by week, not like Liz, Christina or god for bid amber. She speaks the truth. Also lets not go to the look she was looking for her husband plan and simple, if amber was giving a look like that some of you would say its because she’s hurt, Yea sure. She is what the show is about. Improving week to week. I only see one person doing that and that Bill. But yet amber in the winner