Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers
Okay, so once again about half right/very close on the scoring. But the interesting thing is, I got the low scorer correct and one of the high scorers correct. Where I went wrong was once again underestimating Derek and his partner and assuming they would continue to give Brant more protection. They also didn’t seem to feel the need to protect Christina like I thought they would. I find these things interesting. It either means that they’ve realized that Brant and Christina aren’t all that OR Valerie just wasn’t getting the votes like we thought. Or both. It also appears that they’ve separated dancers into three distinct tiers, with Valerie out of the equation. Look at the scores: without Valerie, you have 21s, 24s and 27s. Only three scores, with three points between each one. Veeerry interesting. Coincidence?
Anyway, with a four point difference between Valerie and the next lowest person, how much protection did anyone really need? That’s quite a cushion for most everyone, in reality, possibly such that they could give everyone else a 21 or more and know that that was enough for Val to go home. Let’s take a look. The table below represents the actual scores versus those I predicted. Under that are the votes that were required as a result of the scores for various people to be safe.
As you can see, Valerie needed nearly 13k votes per million votes cast in order to be safe to dance again, sending either Bill or Brant home. The middle tier had a cushion of nearly 26k votes per million votes cast and the top three had a cushion of nearly 38k votes per million votes cast. She clearly didn’t get those votes, which in the third week of voting (since last weeks votes are what counted this past Monday) isn’t that surprising, considering the cast we have. Seems to me that they’ve all established their fans in the third week.
There are two options, IMO, regarding what’s going on with the scoring here:
Option 1 – They knew Valerie was going to be low enough that if everyone got a score of 21 or greater, Valerie was the one going home. That’s easy enough to figure out when you already know the vote totals and how well Valerie dances compared to everyone else. SO, if that is the case (and we don’t know that it is – maybe the judges don’t know how the votes fall), then they can score how they REALLY feel about all of the couples, as long as the number is greater than 21. That is option number 1.
Option number two is that they’ve figured out the lay of the land in terms of who’s popular, who’s the best dancer and who’s not so popular, etc. Figuring out that you want Amber, Corbin and Elizabeth as your final three and the rest are somewhat disposable means that you can score the non-final 3 as you wish. Why do they decide on the Final 3 they want? Elizabeth and Corbin are easily the best dancers, but Amber is also a good dancer and very popular. Simple. 🙂
Of course there are other possibilities – or combinations of the two above. But let’s not get too bogged down. I just find the table below very interesting.
Corbin and Elizabeth show a steady rise in scores such that I wager one or both will get at least one 10 next week. Amber has always gotten either a 24 or a 27 – and there’s always been someone less popular than her so she’s been relatively safe. I imagine she will carry on with scores between 24 and 27 for a couple weeks. No 10’s, but no 7’s either, barring disaster (still waiting on Len’s bias to show – now that Keyshawn and Val are gone it may happen). Leah is holding steady – she’s not the greatest, but she doesn’t suck and she’s one of the “names” on the season. Brant, Christina, Bill and Snookie are kinda all over the place which indicates that, up till now, there has been no agenda with them. That could change. Keep in mind that this is just my sense of things, but I think those with scores all over the place will continue to be all over the place and are the new “canon fodder” – meaning they can go at any time. Or course, with Valerie gone, this coming week will be more telling. I expect there will be a new whipping boy/girl and they may decide to protect Christina again. I predict Brant as whipping boy, mainly because I think Bill and possibly Snookie are turning out to be way more popular than him.
As usual, a lot depends on the dance they’re doing. Here’s what we know so far:
Corbin and Amber – Foxtrot
Brant and Leah – Contemporary
Bill and Jack – V. Waltz (possibly standard Waltz for Jack)
Nicole – Jazz
Elizabeth and Christina – ?? (both have had contemporary, it wouldn’t seem fair to give either Jazz at this point. Both have had exciting styles up to now – I say give them Waltz 🙂 Unfortunately, an instagram indicates an uptempo dance for Christina).
The only question now, besides what Christina and Elizabeth are dancing, is who’s got the juice to keep going. Because the easy eliminations are now gone. The scores mean a lot more with this group now and this week will reveal the mindset of the judges at least. But here’s what I *think* will happen:
Now, more important (I think) than the actual scores each couple gets is the spread of point. If the points are as close (24 – 29) this becomes a very risky game for a few couples indeed. If Bill and Brant improve on last weeks lower scores (and they well could, since those scores were down from the week before) to just 24, then we could be into shocking elimination territory. Then again, Brant has been in the last man standing a couple times now – that’s a harbinger of doom. If they over score him and keep Bill at 21, that’s trouble for Bill. If they are closer to what I’ve got above, things could get REALLY interesting. See below.
If Christina does as well as 26, and Bill and/or Brant get a 24?? Either or both of them only need 8.7k votes per million votes cast to beat her and cause her elimination, assuming she doesn’t beat someone else. Amber would only need ONE vote, and Snookie/Leah would only need 4.3k votes per million votes cast to beat her. These are SMALL numbers. And all three ladies are probably getting them. I could be wrong.
In the scenario above, Elizabeth is likely still safe, provided that she’s near the top of the leader board. Corbin as well, although I’m still of the mind he’s going to win. If Elizabeth trades places on the leader board with Christina, then she is the one who might be in trouble.
If the scores range from 24 to 29, with Elizabeth near the top (27 or 28) and Christina in the middle (26), I think it comes down to Brant and Christina, with Snookie and Bill as outside shots. BUT, if Brant is significantly lower than 24 – like a 21 – I think he’s toast. Possibly the same for Snookie and Bill. I say “possibly” because I think there’s a better than even chance that they are getting a ton more votes than Brant and could overcome a low score to eliminate him.
In the off chance that all three – Brant, Snookie and Bill – score low? I think Brant goes home.
So, in summary, provided no craziness outside the parameters of table 3 I think Brant and Christina are on the bubble, with Snicole and Bill possibly next up. I think Amber, Leah, Corbin and Elizabeth are all safe – the exception being if Liz seriously flubs and takes a tumble. But I don’t see that happening. You?
Of course, the fact that I’ve completely neglected to think about Jack isn’t a good sign, is it? 🙂 I think he’s got at least another week in him. If he goes home, we’ll know my forgetfulness where he’s concerned was a real sign. 🙂
Love, love, love this post. I always enjoy looking at the spreads. I always love DWTS, but for some reason my heart is not in it like it has been in past season. I don’t think it has to do with the dancers. I think it is more an over-all feeling of lacking trust in the producers and such. I always loved the journey and it is hard for me to get really excited when Corbin and Elizabeth have so much dance experience. I find it different with Amber (not just because she is Derek’s partner). Amber sings a lot on Glee but I never see her doing all the big dance productions…she is usually soloing on those, I mean really, how can some of the folks compete with Elizabeth who freely admits she started dance lessons at 2 or 3. She may not have danced these dances but clearly she knows how to move her body and has muscle memory and know how to count the 8. This is nothing against Elizabeth. Have you seen Corbin dance in High School Musical, plus I think he toured with Julianne when she toured with…..well I can’t remember a country star. I do think your scores are right on. I enjoyed Julianne as a judge. I hate the couches…and wish there was a rule about how much dancing. And okay, no one has to tell me…it’s a reality show and all about the ratings…I know…lol But, I will be in front of my TV next Monday and voting like usual….lol
Please, I don’t want to see Elizabeth or Christina in the semi-finals, let alone the finals. But if I had to choose one, it would be Christina. My hope is Elizabeth is the “shocking” elimination some time soon. I’m thinking it’s Brant or Leah this week and the shocking one the following week.
My dream final three? Nicole, Bill and Amber, with either Nicole or Bill winning.
Like Lynne, I so love these posts and I think you nailed it all again, Heidi. Everything you write makes sense. I do think it’s telling you forgot Jack which isn’t good. I tend to overlook him a lot too. He and Cheryl need to do something really show stopping this week so they are remembered more. I too fear for Brant and Bill this time. Though what I’d give if it were Leah going next. I hope they won’t protect her especially. Enough is enough already.
Thanks and excellent number post again.
Can there even be a “shocking” elimination anymore? Now with the judges knowing the vote totals going into monday nights show and knowing what to score each couple to have them either stay and go, it seems they could easily save the better dancers.
I want Bill to win and I think it could happen. The show has never been about being the best dancer or technically really good, its not like were watching the world championships. Its a entertainment show and who do you enjoy, have the most fun watching and judging by all the online love bills getting (maybe more then any other celeb this season, I could be wrong) I think theres a change he could go all the way.
Thanks, PH. This is always one of my favorite posts. As usual, I can’t disagree with your conclusions. I see Brant as the most likely candidate for elimination with Christina and Jack as the other two most likely to go.
I always fear for Bill, but I have to believe he has way more vote support now than Brant. So if the judges give them comparable scores, Bill should be OK. *fingers and toes crossed*
All that aside, I’m with Vogue, I’d like to wave “buh-bye” to Leah on Monday night.
It would be nice if TPTB just let things take their course, instead of protecting some people and low-balling other people to get them off. As Kelly mentions, there might not really be the possibility for a truly “shocking” elimination given the current format. I guess the only way that could happen is if the vote totals are so low, they’d have to give either a ridiculously high score or a ridiculously low score in order to protect someone.
I was bummed last season when they forced Andy off the show; I think if reasonable scores had been given, either Sean or Ingo would have left – and that would have been fine by me. Would Andy have made the finals – no. His dancing wasn’t strong enough. But I would have rather had him last another week or two, and had him leave when it was his time, than have it the way it was. I’m hoping that Bill is a good enough dancer (he’s better than Andy was) and that he’s pulling enough votes that there isn’t a repeat of last season.
As far as the numbers, it’s really interesting to see that Valerie didn’t have enough votes to overcome some relatively (in terms of the margins others have had to overcome in past seasons) small margins – at the start of the season, I was kind of expecting her to last until about midway (kind of like Cloris and Florence).
In my ideal world, the top five (in no particular order) would be Amber, Bill, Corbin, Jack and Nicole – they’re the couples that I enjoy the most, and while some of them may not be the best dancers this season, they all are good enough that I’m enjoying not just their personalities, but also their dancing.
I hope that they stop overscoring Leah; she’s been getting higher scores than her dances have been warranting. Of the other three, Peta’s ruining Brant for me (I like him, but not them), and if I had to pick either Christina or Elizabeth to oust one of *my* top five, I’d pick Elizabeth. I feel more neutral about her and Val than about Christina and Mark.
Of course, the likelihood me getting my top five is practically nil, since TPTB seem to want Leah around, and Elizabeth and Christina are two of the technically better dancers. But I can hope (and vote)!
And I agree with Vogue and Cidra – I’d be happy if Leah was the one leaving on Monday (I wouldn’t be sorry if it was Christina either).
I love, love, love these posts now that I’ve figured out what you’re saying! Thanks for the enormous work that goes into this.
Just please, please let darling Bill and Emma be safe!
Yes, Tony can leave on Monday. Darn–I mean Leah! 😉
Bill and Nicole for the finals would be such great fun.
I think Leah is doing a great job. The show is about people getting better week to week….And she is the only other person doing that is Maybe Bill and Emma. Leah is as real as real is going to be, not like the other people on the show. She improves every week. Also let not go to the look, she was oblivies looking for her family after the last dance she did. If only Amber gave the same look have of you would be its because she is hurt..(Sure). She is getting out of her shell and I believe doing better week to week
Let the hate begin, but I belive that is what the show is about proving week to week and she has done that
Pretty hard to “hate” someone who I can barely understand due to the lack of punctuation. And grammar.
FYI, Jane, posting nearly the exact same comment on two different posts at the same time is verging on SPAMMING. Combined with your very obvious desire to start a fight or something (I don’t do battles of wits with unarmed people, dearie), you’re on the verge of going on moderation.
I kinda agree with Cindy about Christina and Elizabeth: I really hope neither makes it to the finals, or even the semifinals. Both of them kind of irritate me. I do, however, think Corbin should win. Not sure who I want in the finals yet, but it really would be lovely to see Bill there. Not that that’s likely to happen, according to the numbers 😛 Really hope he isn’t completely disregarded as cannon fodder.
[…] overscored and STILL couldn’t manage to stick around. I highly recommend rereading Heidi’s numbers post from last week, as it paints a rather prophetic picture of what might have happened to send Christina […]