Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers
Sorry for the delay this week, kids. Extremely busy at work to the point where it will be lucky if I move this weekend. Lots to talk about, so let’s get on with it…
The week of the not-so-shocking elimination. As I’ve said a few times, Courtney and I have been calling this elimination since nearly the start of the show. At first we said it would be either Elizabeth or Christina and then in the last week or three we’ve been thinking Christina, for a variety of reasons. My thinking was that they were both good dancers that weren’t connecting as much with the audience. In addition, they’re of a similar type: good body, good to really good dancer, pretty, not too old but not incredibly young, average to smallish fanbase. The show can only support ONE of this type and I think we’ve seen that in the past.
- Kristin and Chynna in Season 13, eliminated 3rd and 4th
- Audrina and Brandy in Season 11, eliminated 6th and 9th
- Sabrina and Mel B in Season 5, eliminated 6th and 11th
Of course there are other early eliminations where there isn’t a corresponding person who goes a bit farther, but we’re in another season where there are two women who fall into a similar category. If you look at everyone else on the show, they all fall into their own niche…although it could be argued that Brant and Corbin are in a group together, but this doesn’t seem to occur with men and all the shocking eliminations that most people remember are female.
Now the question is – is Elizabeth another Chynna, or another Brandy or Mel B?? It all depends on how freaked the judges are by losing Christina and they’ve already massively overscored people. I mean, look at the scores this week in the table below – they’ve gone mad. It was week 5 most people had a 26 or higher? Are they insane?? Or are they trying to send Leah home and failed to protect Christina well enough??
That is craziness. Especially when you consider that two of the better dancers, Elizabeth and Amber, were tied for THIRD with 26 points in Week 5. Madness. There were only TWO people out of 8 below them on the leader board. Madness. If that’s not a bunch of overscoring, I don’t know what is. Although, I think Elizabeth was overscored too. Only Bill, Leah, Amber and Corbin were NOT overscored – I’m on the fence about Snooki and Brant (and I love me some Snooki). Anyway, let’s look at what caused Christina to go home.
The table below compares the dancers to each other and shows what one dancer has to get to “beat” the dancer directly above him/her. I start with the low scorer and compare him/her to each person above him/her. Then I compare the second to the lowest with those above him/her and so on.
You see that when the judges hand out so many points to so many people, it narrows the margins (and the votes needed) significantly. It actually makes it easier for Leah to get past Christina. If they’d been willing to take a chance and score people realistically, they would have actually made it harder.
The way they did it, Leah only needed 25.6k votes per million votes cast to get past Christina. Now, I have no idea if she’s getting past anyone else – I tend to believe the last three standing might have been a real bottom three – but she did get past Christina. If they had scored everyone more realistically, they could have given Christina more breathing room – when you lower the total number of points handed out you widen the margins. For example, last week there was one more dancer (Valerie) and they handed out a total of 237 points – only TWO points more than what they handed out this week. Then, for Valerie to beat the high scorer, she would have needed nearly 38k votes per million votes cast. Leah only needed 26k. That’s a pretty huge difference.
Anyway, Leah wasn’t the only one that was beating Christina seriously in votes. Since Christina was at the top of the leaderboard, EVERYONE had to get more votes in order for her to go home. Corbin only needed one more vote per million. But this is how it stacked up for the rest:
– Bill got at least 17k more votes per million votes cast than Christina, and:
– Amber and Elizabeth each got at least 8.5k more votes per million votes cast than Christina, and;
– Snookie, Jack and Brant each got at least 4.3k more votes per million votes cast than Christina.
These are all pretty small numbers and I harp again on the judges – you’re not really helping by handing out a ton of points. If there is someone that just isn’t getting the votes, combined with several who are killing it in votes and one of the ones doing very well is the low scorer? You’re making it easier.
What about the other woman that we’re not sure about, who also might be a shocking elimination (conversely, she could go all the way) – how did she do? Was she really bottom three?? Elizabeth’s score stacks up like this in terms of voting requirements:
– Leah needed 17k votes per million votes cast to beat Elizabeth;
– Bill needed 8.5k votes per million votes cast to beat Elizabeth;
– Amber needed ONE vote per million votes cast to beat Elizabeth;
– Elizabeth needed 4.3k votes per million votes cast to beat either Snookie, Brant, or Jack;
– Elizabeth needed 8.5k votes per million votes cast to beat Corbin or Christina.
Clearly, Liz beat Christina, but we have no idea how she’s doing relative to the other celebs – but the judges are doing her no favors handing out all those high scores. Those are small margins. She (Liz) is more likely to survive if they get real. Of course, while Bill and Amber are probably beating her in the above scenario, she could very well be beating Brant and Snookie…and maybe Jack…due to their small margins. :::shrug::: It’s hard to say. Point: If they scored realistically instead of over scoring, they could have widened the margin such that Leah couldn’t over come it to beat Christina. Maybe.
Anyway, this is where it gets hard. The only clue we have to go on is that Brant and Elizabeth have been in jeopardy the most, followed by Nicole and Leah. But everything hinges on the scores and what the judges feel they have to do. And I will be PISSED if Tom says “a woman is the low vote getter” again this week – that puts the freak on the judges (if they didn’t already have advance knowledge, which I think Len, at least, does) and they do all sorts of crazy things. Anyway, we’ve seen instances in the past where repeated trips to “jeopardy” is a sign that you aren’t long for the competition. Hard to say. So, who’s dancing what this week?
Amber – Samba
Brant/Bill –Tango
Elizabeth – Cha Cha
Corbin – V. Waltz
Jack – Paso Doble
Nicole – Foxtrot
Leah – Quickstep
Frankly, I think Elizabeth is the winner of the week, along with Corbin (since he can dance anything), in terms of dance style. Can you get an easier dance than Cha Cha? I don’t think so. I think Bill could be in trouble, along with Leah. Brant and Jack will likely be fine in their styles, maybe even good. Amber…I think the Samba suits her personality, but let’s hope the music doesn’t lead Derek down the Anti-Len path. That said…Len has a bias for certain types and Amber is squarely in that type. It might not matter what Derek does – Len will find fault where he didn’t find it for other couples (A COW) and give her a low ball score. I will be expecting it every week from here on out.
I think that Nicole, Jack and Brant will be overscored, Elizabeth and Corbin will be about right – jury is out on Amber – and Leah and Bill will either be under scored compared to the other couples, or will be just about right which will still leave them well below everyone except maybe Amber. I see the judges goal this week as getting rid of either Leah or Bill. While so many people LOVE Bill, he’s got to be the cannon fodder (to the judges) along with Leah. The only question is will they succeed or will we get another shocker?
Here are my predictions, followed by the math showing what votes would be needed if I happen to be close:
The numbers are a bit more reasonable this week, or I think they will be, assuming they go low with Leah, moderate with Bill, and higher on everyone else. The elimination of one high scorer brings the margins down a bit.
Anyway, if it turns out like…or even similar…to what I have, above, then I think Elizabeth is safe – that’s a lot of votes that Leah would have to get. Now, that’s not to say she won’t be in jeopardy – that could still happen because:
– Bill would need 28.5k per million votes
– Jack would need 19k per million votes
– Snooki, Amber and Brant would all need 14.3k per million votes
Those people could very well be getting that, although I suspect that Snook and Brant are not. I could be wrong.
So, I think Elizabeth will end up being safe, jeopardy or not, as will Corbin and Amber. Calling that right now. I could be in for a surprise if Liz is doing far worse than I suspect in votes and/or if she gets a really crap score – I see her getting a 30 on the Cha Cha, whether she deserves it or not. That brings us to Leah, Bill, Jack, Brant and Snooki.
Looking at the bottom of Table 3, I think the only ones that Leah MIGHT get past in this scenario are Jack, Brant and Snooki. I think IF she gets past Bill, Bill gets past Jack and Brant and is safe. So, I think Bill ends up being safe, but possibly in jeopardy.
If the scores shake out similar to above, I think Leah might just go home. I just don’t know if she’s got the juice to make up the votes she would need to stay. Leah would need:
– 14,218 to get past Bill
– 23,697 to get past Jack
– 28,436 to get past either Snooki, Brant or Amber
And so on. I have a hard time believing that happens. I think Leah goes in this scenario.
Now, if Leah does better and any of those people do worse than I’ve guessed, then the odds of Leah sticking around increase dramatically. Let’s say, for example, that Leah kills her quickstep and gets a 24. Let’s also say that Snooki gets a 25 and Brant gets 26 points. Everyone else stays the same. The same total number of points are handed out, but the bottom score is now a 24 and the top score is still a 30 – the scores are just more evenly distributed. Well, this would be a disaster if you want Leah to go home and not your favorite. In this scenario, Leah needs:
– ONE more vote per million votes cast to beat Bill,
– 4.7k more votes per million votes cast to beat Snooki
– 9.5k more votes per million votes cast to beat Jack or Brant
– 14.3 more votes per million votes cast to beat either Amber
– 28.5k more votes per million votes cast to beat Elizabeth
Note how much smaller the margins got. Before Leah needed well more than 40k to beat Elizabeth. In this scenario she needs less than 30k. Instead of a 14k differential between Leah and Bill there is none at all.
So, that’s what to watch for. I think Leah’s performance and the resulting score will dictate what happens. I think if she’s quite low, she goes home. If she’s up there with Bill, all bets are off. My guess is Leah goes home. If not her, then Snooki (NO!) or Brant. It all depends on the scoring, because I can’t imagine that she’s doing lots better than anyone in votes. We’ll see!!
Discuss. 🙂
Oh, I love these. Good job again!! Here’s to Leah finally going home….please please please ….and I hope she’s not with Bill in scoring in any way.
Really great analysis! I don’t know how you do it every week 🙂
Thank you for this post, it helps me make sense of it all. Like Vogue, please let it be Leah going this week. If not, then Elizabeth. And whoever doesn’t go this week, can go next week.
Know what irks me about this?
Well, other than you being right because you almost always are. 😉
It is how PAINFUL it is to watch some of these couples dance. It is either the lack of chemistry, lack of emotion or that they are forcing it so much it becomes almost unbearable to watch. Not to mention the whining and complaining.
I Hope they don’t do Bill like they did Andy last season. That would be the final straw for this show for me.
Amber wasn’t over scored? What?! That foxtrot was not 10 worthy but at the same time it wasn’t worth a 7 either. They should’ve gotten 8’s across the board tbh.So in my opinion Amber was overscored.
thank u for this post heidi
i agree the scores this week have been a joke
i think you are right and we will see leah go
i’m now sure that len knows how the votes goes that 10 for christina give it away
he will give a 10 to elizabeth and overscore everybody else except
amber (derek should i say ), bill and leah
i think this week is between leah and bill
elizabeth will have her perfect 30 that will protect her
# ThankMeLater
it’s funny because from all the explanation this post gave us the only think you’re commenting on is amber scores lol
personnaly i think it was 9/10 worthy
So the numbers look comforting, if PH’s predictions regarding scores are correct (or in the ballpark) – at least for those of us that want to see Bill stay. I’m also really hoping they don’t hose Bill like they did Andy last season. My sense is that they won’t – at least not yet. Bill is a better dancer than Andy. At this point in the competition last season, Andy had never gotten an eight (if I’m remembering correctly) while Bill has had triple eights a couple of times. So it would be tough for them to all of a sudden give him a score below 20 (though anything is possible).
I’m hoping that Leah is the one going home – even if her attitude improves, I like everyone else more than her, and she’s not as good of a dancer as Elizabeth. I also don’t think she did herself any favors on Monday with the attitude, and it’s quite possible that people got very scared for some of the better dancers on Monday, and since Leah had enough votes to beat the top scorer, they might think she’s doing fine – and some of the votes might go elsewhere.
@Heidi – Bill and Emma have already given out their dance order for Monday night. Not sure if you want me to post it until your “Whos’ Dancing” post comes up. Let me know if you want me to wait.
Do they usually have camera blocking this early?
Thanks, PH, for doing all of this when you’ve got so much else going on! You rock!!!
As for the analysis. Sound, as always. If all we had to deal with was the 1 dance on Monday and how the Stooges score it, I believe you’d be spot-on, and hopefully right, on Leah “The Non-Dancer” going home (halleluia). However, what throws a huge wrench in the works for me is:
(a) the phone number cock-up from last Monday and what TPTB choose to do about it, and
(b) this bizarre pseudo-marathon thingy they’re doing on Monday. We know how totally rigged past marathons have been.
I suppose the silver lining to a rigged marathon-type dance would be, if TPTB want to get rid of Leah (please let it be so), they might be able to accomplish it with this 2nd dance.
What are your thoughts?
Well….I neglected the weird ass dance switch up thing this week. I guess this means I need to do an addendum tomorrow. But be prepared to be pissed OR happy….Liz and Corbin are on a team with Bill. Good for Bill, but damn. Talk about stacking the deck.
Excellent as always, Princess Heidi. It’s always funny to me when lurkers tweet links to Pure DWTS to the judges or the couples, but it gets you more, well-deserved traffic.
Good for you, thankmelater. In my opinion she was not. I deal in total scores, not individual ones.
Sandy, I saw where Emma tweeted their dance order already. Blocking is usually on Sunday except when the Emmys were happening, so I don’t know what the deal is.
But I thought it was better to be on a team with Derek?
I must be confused… I didn’t think there were teams this week only the couples participating in the switcheroo dance.
Yeah, we’ve been discussing it on twitter and it’s unclear. There is a pic of Corbin, Liz, Bill all rehearsing together – with Jack, I think. From the press release it sounds like two rounds of a marathon. Other info makes it sound like an instant dance. So…maybe it’s a marathon where they don’t know the music or style of dance and it changes during the marathon? First one group of four do it and then the second group of four do it.
But why are they rehearsing together in a room??
the marathon thing doesn’t make sense
there is 2 groups but why having group in the first place for a marathon ? does that mean 2 winners one of each group or 4 winners from one group ??
we sure that there will be different style of dances with different music from the press release
So which do you think will be the strongest team? Brant, Amber, Nicole and Leah, or Corbin, Elizabeth, Bill and Jack?
I definitely think Amber, Brant, Nicole and Leah are a stronger team. I also don’t understand why they are in groups if it’s like a instant dance? Also why are they all in the same rehearsal space? This sounds really messy tbh.
I think they probably will be judged in the marathon dance within their group of 4, meaning highest to lowest. Maybe?
Wow, this is really an insightful, fascinating, intricate post. Thank you!
Maybe they’re letting the couples practice together in a room in order to get them used to the freaky deaky, insta-marathon style?
I have to say I’m really getting anxious and excited to see what goes down on Monday night.
Geez, just about the time PH makes sense of all of this they pull the old switch-a-roo. Cant’ wait….NOT…
Who knows, maybe they are practicing for a four-some group opening number! 😉
But I think what they’re doing is a marathon twice – once for each group. So there would be a winner from each group, not that a group would win over the other group.
But then, why else would they be practicing together if they’re not a “team”??
And no, Amber, Brant, Nicole and Leah are NOT the stronger team, unless you’re on crack.
This whole two group, insta-marathon thing is bonkers. The overcomplication leads me to think TPTB have realized that viewers see the fakery in their normal marathon and insta-dances and are using even more smoke and mirrors to cover up their manipulation.
So, do the winning couples of each group take on each other to decide a grand winner?
How many points do the winning teams get?
This is so nuts!
I adore you Miss Heidi. You’re a smart smart smart girl. Thank you. 🙂
Great post.
Thank you PH for crunching all the numbers. They sure did give a big hint last week to the judges as to who they had to over score and Len, especially, knew what to do with that information. It makes his 7 to Amber a little more troubling.
It will be interesting to see how getting two sets of scores this week changes the dynamic. Thanks to your teaching us, I know increasing the total number of points can change things this week. I can’t imagine anyone other than Leah and Bill ending up on the bottom of their respective teams. I always love marathon week because TPTB so clearly show their hand as to who they plan to have stay and go.
I wonder if TPTB know that by wrapping themselves in another color blanket (this crazy insta-marathon thingy), we can still see them running around the dance floor while shouting, “YOU CAN’T SEE ME, I’M INVISIBLE! HAHAHAHA!”
@Lori
Is the question really do they know or is the real question we should be asking is do they care?
I’m trying not to be stick in the mud, but I really really wish they’d go back to the old way, judges score, we vote, elimination the next night. Let the public react to the dances and judges scores/comments and decide who to vote for and how heavily. It’s not right to me that those 3 get to react to what the public says and score/comment according to their wishes. Democracy not oligarchy!
when len gave the 10 carrie ann and bruno reaction were hilarious they were as shoched as we were and then the 9 to elizabeth come on and he didn’t comment on the set and the acting before the dance
i agree with jess they now have all the power they can decide who they want to go or not
i think len gave that 7 to amber knowing she will be safe
I haven’t said this for a while…
Just wanted to Thank Heidi, Courtney, Vogue, and of course John, for all of their hard work and dedication that they put into this site, just for all of the DWTS junkies like me. Love you guys!
I can’t imagine how they’re going to have time for all this AND a musical guest. Or did I misread that part??
Yep, there are musical guests too….Ariana Grande and Mika dueting. The show will be packed and then some.
Sandy, ditto. Thanks so much. We love you too!XXx
I’ve sadly called this Christina elimination for a while too, as well as Elizabeth. There ya go.
Maybe the musical quests are singing during the marathon or opening number?
First – WOW! These numbers posts are AMAZING! I think I’ve gotten the hang of following along now but the issues caused by the over scoring was quite the new wrench in the works.
Second – Please, please send whiny Leah Remini and her partner in crime, Tony, home this week!
And I have a question, not a criticism. I’m honestly just trying to follow the undercurrents. When you say Len has a bias for a certain “type” and Amber fits squarely within that category, what is the “type?” I have seen Len having a problem with Derek & creativity/frippery that he doesn’t seem to have with other pro’s and their partners. Or only rarely. But I haven’t associated the issue with the celebs but with Derek. So maybe a bit more info to clarify?
But thanks for all of the excellent points!
SH – Len likes female ballroom dancers to be taller and very thin. I’ve often suspected that he also likes them to be Caucasian, but I could be way off base on that. He was very hard on Mya and Dimitry, but I felt a lot of that was both the fact that she was a ringer (and he’s notoriously hard on ringers) and that Dmitry gave her crap choreo on occassion.
As to whether this bias goes beyond Derek?? I will have to give that some thought and look at past contestants.
A lot of the time, I think Len feels like he’s the great equalizer – like he has to knock Derek down so A) no one realizes how great he thinks Derek is (Derek has commented in blogs what Len says to him OFF camera), and B) because he perhaps he feels other pros/celebs can’t compete so he tries to make it more “fair”. Because if it really was about “frippery” and “lack of content” he’d be whipping those comments out left and right – yet he doesn’t.
Much thanks for the speedy reply Princess Heidi!
I totally see and agree with your take on the Len/Derek situation. It was what I thought I was seeing even without knowing this site in previous seasons.
As for Len preferring a tall, thin dancer, what the heck was his issue with Kellie Pickler?! I know she is only 5′ so shorter than Amber but the proportions of her body and her overall tone were stunning. I thought him stingy to Kellie all season despite rarely having much in the line of critique on her dancing. And she wasn’t a ringer.
As for race, I’ve seen it brought up elsewhere that a Black woman has never won DWTS so there is a call to vote for Amber for that reason amongst others.
Is it possible that Leah Remini is pulling in votes as a kind of a Scientology back lash? I can’t see her garnering them on personality, attractiveness or dance skills. LOL! But strange things happen when there are online/voting contests.